Greggory Masterson

It’s still early in the season, but it is also getting late for Carlos Santana amid an early-season funk. Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports One of the holes the Minnesota Twins were expected to fill over the offseason was the role of a right-handed hitter to pair with corner players like Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach. The Twins opted to sign Carlos Santana to a smooth $5.25-million contract for his age-38 season. They also turned the starting first baseman's mitt over to the former All-Star and Silver Slugger. Being the everyday first baseman was a larger role than many fans had anticipated for the aging player. Over the first 10 years of his career (2010-2019), he was a hitter 21 percent above average by OPS+. From 2020 to 2023, he was 6 percent below average (94 OPS+), hitting just .218. Even then, though, he drew walks and hit with a little pop. Last year was a bit of a renaissance, as he had his first season since 2019 with an OPS+ above average (104), though that’s still not what a team hopes for out of a bat-first position. His elite defense offset this deficiency, as he led MLB first basemen in 2023 with 11 Defensive Runs Saved. It’s not an ideal everyday first baseman, especially as Santana has not hit right-handed pitching well in several years, but if he’s on the roster, he will play. Unfortunately, the Twins' confidence in him being an everyday contributor has not been rewarded. Through Sunday, April 21, Santana had played 17 of the Twins’ first 20 games, slashing an abysmal .133/.224/.150 as a first baseman and designated hitter, the two most bat-forward positions on the field. He’s also not getting any younger. He’s also striking out at a career-worst 21 percent clip. No matter how good a player was in his 20s, Father Time comes for everyone, and Santana just turned 38 two weeks ago, far past the expiration date for most MLB players. So, what’s the outlook for a player like this? What are the odds that a player at this age can turn his season around? It’s still early, right? He has plenty of time to find his groove. The turnaround I’m describing here has rarely happened in recent baseball history. I dug up the 50 worst 17-game starts (10% of a season) to a season for players 37 and older by OPS since 1995. I threw some out if they didn’t regularly play (e.g., backup catchers, like 1999 Charlie O'Brien, 2014 José Molina, 2012 Henry Blanco, 2019 Erik Kratz, and 2004 Pat Borders; or those affected by injuries--like 2014 Jason Giambi, who played 17 games between April and September), leaving me with 36 players. Among those players, Santana is off to the fifth-worst start in the last 30 years (even including the non-everyday players, he’s seventh-worst). The list has many aging corner outfielders, first basemen, and designated hitters, a few catchers—not known for their batting—and a sprinkling of center fielders and infielders. Of the 36, 16 were beginning their last season in the majors. Eighteen played another year (though Gary Gaetti and So Taguchi only played 5 and 6 games, respectively, in their following seasons before retiring). Two—Santana and José Abreu (whose 2024 is the worst start on the list) are currently playing. Of course, many players do retire after their age-37 season, even if it was moderately successful, so those numbers aren’t surprising. However, it’s worth checking to see how many players managed to turn their seasons around after their disastrous starts. What hope do Twins fans or Santana have for a turnaround? Only five of the 34 players we have final results for ended the season with a league-average OPS or better (2015 Marlon Byrd, 100; 2015 Carlos Beltrán, 119; 2007 Gary Sheffield, 119; 2022 Justin Turner, 120; 2013 Raúl Ibañez, 123). A few also reached an OPS+ in the 90s: 2009 Gregg Zaun, 2006 Bernie Williams, 2021 Miguel Cabrera, 2002 Julio Franco, and 2017 Chase Utley. Santana getting to a 90 OPS+ would be a victory. Perhaps I buried the lede a bit here: as of Sunday, he had a 13 OPS+ at .374. It’s hard to dig out of an early pit. Some of the above players—Byrd, Utley, and Cabrera—started in that range, so it could be possible. However, most players were unable to dig themselves out. Half (17) ended their seasons with an OPS+ below 80, which is a complete impediment at first base. Eleven of those 17 retired (plus Gaetti and Taguchi, who were essentially done, which makes it 13). Among those players are Harold Baines, Hideki Matsui, Otis Nixon, Brady Anderson, Johnny Damon, and Wally Joyner. Some of those players were coming off good years, too; aging is inevitable. Brian Giles went from an OPS+ of 138 to 52 from 2008 to 2009, then retired. Gaetti went from 121 in 1998 to 52 in 1999. Magglio Ordóñez fell from 129 in 2010 to 73 in 2011. Santana doesn’t have so lofty a starting point to lean on—it’s hard for fans to hope he regains his form when his form last season was four percent above average. And so, how much time does he have? It partially depends on the context. Kirilloff is off to a good start this season, and José Miranda is showing a bit of life. But beyond that, the Twins’ other internal options at first base are players like Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, or Alex Isola--aging minor leaguers with no MLB experience. Upon a player like Carlos Correa or Royce Lewis returning from injury, a roster crunch could threaten Santana’s job. There’s little precedent for a player rebounding from a start like this at his age, but the Twins have also been slow in recent years to move on from veteran depth. How much space to bounce back will he get? Only time will tell, but it’s not looking pretty for the player on the wrong side of 35. View full article

It's the first episode of the Twins Off-Daily Podcast! And yes, we realize today is not an off-day. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp Greggory Masterson, Sweet Lou Hennessy, Cody Schoenmann, and Matt Braun of Twins Daily get together for the pilot episode of the Twins Off-Daily Podcast to break down the Twins-Tigers series and look ahead to the Twins' trip to Baltimore. This is a trial run of the podcast and it is not yet available on your favorite podcast apps. The first "real" episode should be available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts when it releases later in the week. If you'd like to request the addition of another podcast app, please request it in the comments. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

That was an error my end:the team can only send him back down by using one of his options (if he has any) or exposing him to waivers.

Great question—nope, he keeps all his option years. If he was on the 40 at the beginning of the year, or if he was sent back down, that would be an option. But because he was only added to the 40 when he was called up and he stuck around in MLB, he’d retain all his options.

That frustrating roster move might make more sense than you think. Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports It’s been less than two weeks, and the Twins have already started digging into their minor league depth, so it’s probably good for a discerning fan to know which players have minor league options. Head-scratching decisions often make more sense when considering the option information, so let’s overview the system. First, let’s touch on some rules. They’re a bit complicated but graspable with some patience. If you already know the rules, skip to the player lists. Minor League Options Defined To be eligible for an MLB active (26-man) roster, a player must be on that team’s expanded 40-man roster. A player on the 40-man roster can be in the majors or minors, but only players on the 40-man can be on the MLB active roster. Therefore, any player not on the 40-man roster must be added to both the 40-man and active rosters to be eligible to play. If there is no room on the 40-man, a current member needs to be removed, generally by exposing him to outright waivers or by transferring them to the 60-day injured list. If exposed to outright waivers, any other team in the league willing to take on the player’s salary and place him on their active roster (or expose him to waivers again) can claim him. Naturally, a player would need to be injured for the 60-day option to be available. To send a player to the minors while also on the team’s 40-man roster, they need to have option years remaining. If the player has no option years remaining, they must be exposed to waivers before being sent down. Number of Options When a player is added to a 40-man roster for the first time in his career, he has three option years. Option years are used when the player spends time in the minor leagues, whether it’s a full season or a few weeks spread over months. A player can be sent down once or several times in that year, and it will still count as a single option year, assuming that he meets the 20 day threshold. Players who do not play in the minor leagues in a given year retain their option years. If a player uses an option year in 2024, he will have two remaining. If he then spends all of 2025 on an MLB roster, he still has two. If he then gets sent down in 2026, he will have one. If he’s sent down again in 2027, he will have no options left, and if the team wants to send him to the minors in 2028, he would need to be waived first. Nuances There are some nuances to these rules to be aware of. First, if a player is in the minor leagues but is not on the 40-man roster, the team is not using one of his options. However, if he is called up to the major league team, and thus added to the 40-man roster, the team can only send him back down by using one of his options (if he has any) or exposing him to waivers. As of 2022, a player can only be sent to the minor leagues five times in one season, which includes starting the season in the minors. After the fifth time, the subsequent demotion requires the player to be waived. They will still have any future option years, though. Occasionally the years are malleable, and additional option years for a player may be added by the league. More specifically, the player must fit the criteria of having used all three options before getting 5 years of professional service (full season baseball). For example, Lewis Thorpe had four option years for this reason. In fact, a few Twins have. Gilberto Celestino had one option remaining in 2022 and was demoted mid-season. However, he was recalled within days after an injury to an active roster player, and because his demotion was so short, he did not use an option year. It needs to be over 20 days to count as an option year. Players with at least five years of service time (time on an MLB active roster) can refuse a demotion, even if they still have options remaining. You will rarely see a 35-year-old sent to AAA, even if he has an option remaining, because he can simply say no, forcing the team to either release him or send someone else down. The Twins Roster Let’s look at the Twins players’ situations with all that out of the way. It should be noted that even if a player is listed with options remaining, that doesn’t mean we think they will be sent down or are even likely to. (Things would have to go really bad for Jhoan Duran to be sent to St. Paul). This information is from FanGraphs’s Roster Resource. MLB Players who can Refuse Demotion As discussed, these players have enough service time to refuse demotion. In rare cases, if the player and team agree that some time in the minor leagues would be beneficial, and he still has at least one option year remaining, it could happen. However, it’s rare enough that you shouldn’t hope that Kyle Farmer agrees to spend time in St. Paul this season. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Anthony DeSclafani, Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Pablo López, Manuel Margot, Chris Paddack, Carlos Santana, Caleb Thielbar, Christian Vázquez MLB Players Out of Options These players can be sent down, but they would need to be exposed to waivers first. Jay Jackson, Steven Okert, Brock Stewart Note: Okert is a good example of how options can impact teams' rosters and players' careers. Okert was going to be battling for a spot in the Marlins' crowded bullpen, but without an option, he needed to win a spot or the team would risk losing him on waivers. Likewise, the Twins were in a similar situation with fitting utilityman Nick Gordon into a crowded bench, also out of options .The Twins had bullpen room, and the Marlins needed a utility player, so the players were traded for each other, and both teams avoided making a tough decision. MLB Players with One Option Remaining These players are currently on the active roster (or injured list) and can still be sent down this year. However, if they are sent down and use an option year, they will have no options in 2025. The team could be a little more hesitant to use that final year than they would otherwise. Willi Castro, Daniel Duarte, Jhoan Duran, Alex Kirilloff, Bailey Ober, Cole Sands, Josh Staumont, Josh Winder 40-Man Players in the Minor Leagues with One Option Remaining These players are currently in the minors (as of 4/6), and if they hit the 20-day threshold it’s their last year. Come 2025, they would have no options remaining. Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda 40-Man Players with Multiple Option Years Remaining If necessary, any of these players can be sent back and forth with little concern. Jorge Alcala, Jair Camargo, Matt Canterino, Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Griffin Jax, Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Joe Ryan, Yunior Severino, Justin Topa, Louie Varland, Matt Wallner, Zack Weiss, Simeon Woods Richardson Notable Minor League Veterans without Options and/or Sufficient Service Time There are a handful of minor league veterans that are not on the MLB roster. If these veterans are called up, they either have no options remaining (*) or can refuse the demotion due to service time (®), so sending them back down would be complicated. Prepare to lose them if you see them. A.J. Alexy*, Jordan Balazovic*, Matt Bowman*, Scott Blewett* Notable Minor League Veterans with One Option Remaining If these veterans are called up, they still have one option remaining, so they can be kept in the system and demoted, but this would be the last year, without exposing them to waivers. Jeff Brigham, Beau Burrows, Diego Castillo (UTIL), Ronny Henriquez, Jovani Moran, Jared Solomon Notable Minor League Veterans with Multiple Options Remaining With this group, if they’re called up, they can be demoted with very little option year consideration. Caleb Boushley, Diego Castillo (RP), Randy Dobnak, Hobie Harris, Ryan Jensen Thanks for input from John Bonnes, Jeremy Nygaard, and Jack Goin over the last year on this writeup, correcting many of the errors that I made. View full article

They say that war never changes. WAR does change, as it’s a context-dependent stat, but baseball itself doesn't change much, either. Year in and year out, the same storylines surface in every spring training, as sunburnt media members struggle to produce material. Previous winners: Do-Hyoung Park That's our show. We were unable, again, to book any celebrities to present any of the awards. Maybe next year. We really should try actually asking them. We just figured they'd reach out. If you have John Mulaney's phone number, please drop it in the comments. View full article

He can be sent down without waiving him. However if he’s called up, he can’t be sent down without waiving him again

I think there’s a solid chance that he’d get claimed if that that happened but it would depend on the needs of the other 29 teams. I’d be stunned if he got waived over ST performance because that doesn’t really happen in modern baseball. However, even if he was passed through waivers, he has enough service time to refuse a trip to minors and would likely need to be released.

Option restrictions play a big part in roster decisions. This spring, they may as well be that man behind the curtain controlling the Twins’ Opening Day roster--but you should pay attention to him. It’s essential to keep them in mind as you start to put together your own projected roster. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports Spring training is often a time when big-league hopefuls compete against each other to etch out a spot on the parent club. The last couple spots of the bullpen, the fifth starter, the fourth outfielder, or the utility guy are often contested. Sometimes, even a starting role is fought over between two veterans. As time has passed, there have been fewer position battles, as teams tend to have a better idea of what each player on the roster is capable of, and less attention is paid to spring statistics. This year, it’s debatable how much flexibility for position battles the Twins have at all, but it’s not entirely because of clearly better or worse players—it’s also because of roster rules. Enter the minor league option. Once Opening Day arrives, I’ll publish a complete primer on options and which Twins have them, as I did last year, but it’s worth discussing a few cases during the spring. Very quickly, to be eligible for an MLB active roster, a player must be on that team’s expanded 40-man roster. A player on the 40-man roster can be in the majors or minors. If a player is sent to the minors while on the team’s 40-man roster, they must have option years remaining. If the player has no option years remaining, they must be exposed to waivers to be sent down. When a player is exposed to waivers, any team willing to pay their salary can acquire their services without the player or their original team having the ability to stop the move. Why does this matter? Several players in the organization are out of options, and need to either break camp with the Twins or pass through waivers to be sent to Triple-A St. Paul. Some of those players who are out of options aren’t send-down candidates anyway, as they’re expected to be significant contributors. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Carlos Correa, Pablo López, Caleb Thielbar, and Brock Stewart are all out of options, but none are in any danger of getting sent down (regardless of what you wanted them to do last May with Kepler). Other players who still have options can be considered locks to make the Opening Day roster, health permitting, such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Justin Topa. You can quibble with a few of these, but seeing them not head north with the club would be surprising. If you haven’t been taking notes, that leaves three bench spots, two rotation spots, and three bullpen spots. But some of those are likely claimed. Three Bench Spots Unnamed in the top lists are Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez, both of whom have no options remaining but are still locks for the roster. Even if you believe Brooks Lee or Austin Martin should be the utility infielder or Jair Camargo should be the backup catcher, that can’t be solved by stashing Famer or Vazquez at Triple-A. They would need to be waived. Farmer and Vazquez are locks because they were out of options and paid a combined $16 million. There was one spot left that could have gone to minor leaguers like Martin, Camargo, Jose Miranda, or Yunior Severino, but, with the arrival of Manuel Margot, that's unlikely. Margot is also out of options, all but guaranteeing a spot on the bench. Two Starting Rotation Spots There are two spots beyond Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, but options also cloud the process of picking those pitchers. Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani are out of options, effectively penning them into the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Even if the Twins are not excited about these two options (DeSclafani more likely than Paddack), they’re compelled to keep them there. Unfortunately for Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, or even Randy Dobnak, those spots are filled by pitchers who can’t be sent down, which means that the youngsters will need to wait their time, no matter how much they dazzle in the spring. How long a leash DeSclafani will get if his 2022 and 2023 struggles continue is a good question, but for Opening Day, his status will likely make the Twins’ decision for them. Three Bullpen Spots The Twins boast one of—if not the—deepest bullpen in team history. Behind the top five already mentioned are veterans like Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, and Zack Weiss, along with organizational products like Jorge Alcala, Kody Funderburk, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Jordan Balazovic. There are a lot of names there, and it would be fun to watch a classic position battle for the last three spots, but options will get in the way again. Okert and Jackson are both out of options and making a few million dollars combined. That pretty much settles that debate. If the Twins are unwilling to expose those two veterans to waivers, they’re also locks for the Opening Day roster. That brings the count down to one bullpen role, with many pitchers who can fill it. Unfortunately, for fans who love watching position battles, that’s the only spot that isn’t occupied by a lock or a player out of options. As a side note, Balazovic is out of options but not on the 40-man roster, so he's fine to be sent to the minors. If he gets added to the Twins roster again, though, he'd need to be DFAd and clear waivers to be sent down. Conclusion So, to count off the players whose option status is nigh on guaranteed by their being out of options, we have Vazquez, Farmer, Margot, Paddack, DeSclafani, Okert, and Jackson. If you wonder why one of these bums (your words, not mine) is on the team over your favorite prospect, options are part of the reason. In truth, only one line won’t be occupied by a lock or a player out of options: the last reliever. Of course, injuries can change these situations, but it’s worth taking note of which players have little chance of not making the team, either because of their abilities or those pesky roster rules. Don’t say I didn’t warn ya! View full article

The Twins have a lot of innings to replace in 2024, and apparently, Anthony DeSclafani is part of their plan to do so. He's looking to regain his former reputation as a solid big-league starter after two injury-plagued seasons, and one important aspect of that is a careful mix of his two fastballs. Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports Imagine that—a Twins Daily writer is not only talking about four-seamers and sinkers, but this hurler's sinker in particular. If you haven’t already, check out Matt and Lucas’s Caretaker content on the topic. Anthony DeSclafani's career has been all over the place, with an ERA in the 3s every other year between 2015 (when he was 25) and 2022 (when he was 32)—with years in the 6s and 7s in between. He pitched well enough to earn a four-year, $48-million contract with San Francisco ahead of the 2021 season. Early results were solid, as he had a 3.17 ERA and 3.89 FIP in 167 innings in 2021. However, in the two years following that performance, he had a 5.16 ERA and 4.43 FIP in just 118 innings. The apparent culprit could be injury, but it’s never that simple. Part of the struggles may be an overreliance on his sinker. DeSclafani has always thrown both a sinker and a four-seamer, but he had thrown the fastball at least 50 percent more often than the sinker until 2022--at which point he began throwing the sinker twice as often as the fastball. Those familiar with the Giants and their pitching philosophy may already know why. Brian Bannister, the San Francisco director of pitching (fancy title, wow), could be affectionately referred to as a sinker wackadoodle. If you were labeled a sinker guy, you were throwing it early and often. DeSclafani was labeled a sinker guy. A redesign of his pitch mix may do him good, as Lucas Seehafer laid out in his Caretakers-exclusive article, relying more on his four-seamer at the expense of the sinker. His slider pairs better with it, and has been his most-thrown pitch over the last three years, and his most effective. Another option would be to retain both pitches and deploy them based on location, throwing fastballs high and sinkers down, or sinkers predominantly to righties and four-seamers to lefties, as he has been doing in recent years. Another less-discussed delineation that DeSclafani could make would be based on count. Blake Newberry of Viva el Birdos recently had a great breakdown of using the sinker as a pitch to get called strikes. Most of the time, pitches are thrown in the same direction that they break. Sliders are thrown to the glove side (as opposed to the arm side) because they are already breaking that way. So a right-handed pitcher will throw a slider that breaks away from righties or inside to lefties. It makes sense. The sinker has armside break. A righty’s sinker will move toward a right-handed batter and away from a left-handed batter. Therefore, throwing the sinker to the pitcher’s arm side has been popular—inside to righties and outside to lefties. DeSclafani has been doing both in recent years. Given Bannister’s pitching philosophy, he has been relying on the sinker in most fastball situations. He tends to throw in two spots—arm-side sinkers up (up and in to righties, up and outside to lefties) and glove-side sinkers down (low and outside to righties, low and inside to lefties). Newberry’s research suggests that glove-side sinkers have actually been more effective than arm-side sinkers. Beyond that, having already relied on sinkers to both sides, DeSclafani could be able to use his sinker in a way that is gaining popularity—as a strikeout pitch. It seems antithetical to say that. Sinkers are regaining popularity because they induce weak contact and grounders, not because they fool batters into swinging and missing. The thing is, that's not what makes a sinker a potential strikeout pitch—it's that they can fool batters into not swinging. Think about it like this: If an armside sinker breaks to the arm side, the break may bring it outside of the strike zone, preferably in on righties (if a right-handed pitcher like DeSclafani is pitching). If the batter swings, they’ll probably at least foul it off, and if it’s breaking in, it may be a ball that they can lay off. However, if the pitch is thrown well to the glove side, it will appear to be going out of the zone before snapping back in, hopefully catching the edge of the plate. Gloveside sinkers that catch the edge of the plate are only swung at about 40 percent of the time, giving the pitcher a shot at a free strike. More significantly, with two strikes, when the batter should be looking to make contact with anything in the zone, they still only swing at a gloveside sinker 60 to 65 percent of the time. Utilizing a good gloveside sinker in a strikeout count, at least recently, leads to a called third strike about a third of the time. And then, if the batter does swing, they’re making contact with a painted sinker, which limits the potential damage. Given DeSclafani’s existing ability to throw sinkers both glove- and armside, he could unlock another aspect of his game, relying more on the gloveside sinkers—pairing them with his great slider, which would also be thrown glove side, to make a hitter second-guess whether that pitch is going to break out of the zone or snap back into it. The front-door sinker is a strategy employed by Corey Kluber a decade ago in Cleveland, when Derek Falvey was in the organization, so it's not an outlandish idea. The primary question for DeSclafani in 2024 is whether the Twins can get him back to being a reliable presence in the rotation, not whether he can start a playoff game. Introducing this sinker strategy, while reincorporating his four-seamer and continuing to rely on his slider, could pay dividends in that endeavor. There are many adjustments that the organization could make to try to revive DeSclafani's career (or at least squeeze the remaining juice out of it), and this could be one of them. View full article

In fairness, during his breakout 2021 in the minors, they did run him out in left field and abandoned it very quickly

This is true, but why not find a right-handed version of Nick Gordon the outfielder, rather than starting the season with Nick Gordon the lefty who doesn’t have functional utility on this team? A lateral move would be welcome.

In the wake of the Jorge Polanco trade, the Twins have cash to spend. Some of that has been directed toward the newest Twin, Carlos Santana, but is there room for another addition? The offseason is almost complete, but the Twins are just getting started. On Friday night, they filled the gap left by Jorge Polanco’s departure with a veteran slugging first baseman and designated hitter in Carlos Santana. The signing seemingly allows the Twins to feel comfortable with quality bats and flexibility at every spot in the lineup. So, what’s next? Santana’s signing was for slightly less than the money the Jorge Polanco trade saved, so they, at least, still have a little bit more cash than they did last week. Although the Twins appear to have a full roster, with a solid lineup and quality projected bench of Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Christian Vazquez, and Nick Gordon, there’s still room to improve if the Twins choose to do so. Santana solved the most significant hole in the roster, but as a first baseman or designated hitter, his presence doesn’t help at every position. One of the more significant areas for improvement is now in the outfield (as long as we’re ignoring the potential for a substantial rotation upgrade). Although the Twins have three quality outfielders in Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Matt Wallner, their depth is a bit more suspect—which is vital for a team counting on Buxton. At present, Castro and Gordon are the first line of defense in the outfield, with Trevor Larnach and potentially Austin Martin at Triple-A in waiting. Alex Kirilloff could also play a corner when necessary. It’s a motley crew, and it’s redundant. Castro, Gordon, Larnach, and Kirilloff all hit righties better than lefties. Castro and Gordon are super-utility players, and Martin could also be in the same role by midseason. Gordon, specifically, is coming off a disaster of a year following his popup breakout season in 2022. Everyone’s favorite hype man is in a position to get squeezed out. If Gordon does find himself waived or traded (as he has no options remaining) or if another outfielder is moved separately, there would be room to bring in a right-handed outfielder. The fit would be great, as a right-handed outfielder could serve as the top backup—allowing Castro to be utilized as an in-game substitution weapon more frequently. A right-handed outfielder can also serve as a platoon corner outfield bat alongside Castro against left-handed pitching, as Kepler and Wallner are lefties. If that player can play somewhat regularly against righties, then all the better. Who are the options for such a role? Trades are always a possibility, but they’re even more difficult to project than free agents, so let’s stick with free agency. The most obvious answer may be a reunion with Michael A. Taylor, coming off a year as the Twins' de facto center fielder, in which he hit 20 home runs and played stellar defense. If the Twins were to reunite with Taylor, he could easily be a platoon bat against lefties and start frequently in center field as needed. His return made less sense before Santana’s arrival, as he wouldn’t help the team nearly as much offensively and was not a candidate to fill a DH role. However, as a high-usage fourth outfielder, he would fit great into the current roster and provide functional utility on several fronts. Despite his below-average overall offensive numbers in 2023, he still had a .914 OPS against lefties, and the glove plays no matter who’s pitching. Furthermore, Taylor’s presence would allow the Twins to selectively rest Byron Buxton and do what they can to keep him as healthy as possible through 2024. No remaining free agent outfielders, short of Cody Bellinger, can provide that to the Twins. Taylor could be more interested in a proper everyday job. Beyond that, many have projected him to command a salary of around $9M, and his two comparable center fielders in this free agent class—Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader—each signed for $10.5M in the past months. Still, this reunion makes more sense today than it did at this time yesterday. There are other options out there that may also make sense. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham can both play center field (Duvall better than Pham) and would be complimentary everyday-worthy bats with the ability to play both corners. In contrast to Taylor, Duvall and Pham would provide more consistent thump and compete for DH action alongside Santana. Both Duvall and Pham were also projected to earn approximately $9M, but given that they’re still on the market in February, that price has likely come down (which may be true for Taylor as well). However, they both make a bit less sense after the Santana signing, as there’s less opportunity to get their bats in the lineup more regularly, but we’ll see if that comes to fruition. Randal Grichuk and Robbie Grossman are lesser options in this vein who probably shouldn’t play any center field (and honestly, Grossman may be a DH-only very soon). Both would cost less than Santana did (Grossman might even be a spring training invite candidate), so if the Twins are genuinely strapped for cash but desperate to bring someone in, their options are slightly better than whoever the 2024 Kyle Garlick equivalent may be. If the club were looking to bring in an outfielder with more utility, Whit Merrifield or Enrique Hernandez would add even more flexibility with their abilities to play on the dirt. However, the fit doesn't seem to be there with Farmer still on the team and Castro already in a super-utility role. The Twins have room to make one more move, and they still have some team needs they could reinforce. The good news is that some decent options remain. So, should the Twins try to bring in one more righty after the Santana deal? If so, who would you prefer it be? View full article

I appreciate it—I’d like to respond to the points. What I meant by sad reality was from a fan’s attachment perspective. Yes, I want a competent front office to make these moves running my favorite team. However, it’s sad that we have to say goodbye to a fan favorite before he’s fallen off the cliff or is no longer under contract. For the second point, there are pretty widely-used estimates that convert value to dollars based on WAR. Those values are based on how much free agents are paid that year compared to how much WAR they put up. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s a good shorthand to see if a player was worth their salary. A contract extension also isn’t a free market—26M was what the Twins and only the Twins were willing to pay. None of the other 29 teams had a chance to negotiate with him. So his value could have definitely been higher on the free market

The Twins’ longest-tenured player was traded on Monday for a return of four players. However, the Twins put themselves in a position to decide what to do with him on their terms way back in 2019. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports You, personally, might have an opinion on the return for Jorge Polanco. Maybe it was a good deal; maybe the Twins were too concerned with shedding salary. Maybe it’s the worst deal since the Tommy Herr trade. Whatever your stance on it, though, in most situations, the Twins wouldn’t have had a chance to move him and recoup any value at all. Polanco surpassed six years of service time in 2022. Generally, a player who reaches six years of service will be a free agent. He may be subject to a qualifying offer, but the team cannot force him to accept it. In one of the most underrated extensions in recent baseball history, the Twins signed Polanco to a deal before his age-25 season in 2019—a year he started at shortstop in the All-Star Game. The guaranteed sum for Polanco was $25.75 million over five years, an average of a meager $5.15 million per season. Polanco had yet to reach arbitration, meaning he was still making approximately $500,000 per year, even though he had already spent parts of five seasons with the Twins. That contract gave him a raise to $3,583,333 in 2019, but it was also guaranteed to be under Twins control through 2023, a year past the point that he would otherwise have become a free agent. It may have been partly due to the guaranteed, life-changing money for the Dominican native. It may have also been related to his 2018 PED suspension, and general uncertainty. It could be because he had been in the Twins organization since he was 16 years old. There are likely other reasons, but Derek Falvey made a bet on his young shortstop, and it paid off for him. Max Kepler, who was also part of the 2009 international amateur signing class—along with Miguel Sanó—signed a similar deal at the same time. Both contracts paid off to different degrees, but this story is about Polanco. Polanco played 544 games during his five-year contract and hit .268/.337/.458, for a 117 OPS+. If you’re a WAR person, playing shortstop, second base, and third base to different extents, he accumulated 14.5 rWAR and 11.4 fWAR (worth over $90,000,000 no matter how it’s calculated), as compared to the $25,750,000 he was paid. That value would be a victory in itself, especially considering that he played for an extra year at a reasonable $7,500,000 contract in 2023, a number he surely would have surpassed on the open market. However, the most significant stroke was the additional two years of team options. (Technically, Polanco could have forced the team to retain him if he reached 550 plate appearances, but that’s also in the team’s control—he didn’t choose how much he played.) Those two option years, worth $10.5 million and $12 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, gave the team incredible flexibility. Both sums are likely less than what Polanco would get on the free market, but they also retained the ability to be flexible in how they handled him. It’s fitting, really. Polanco has provided flexibility on the field his whole career. He’s played shortstop, willingly moved to second base to make room for Andrelton Simmons and later Carlos Correa, and he volunteered to cover third base in 2023—a 30-year-old veteran making room for the man who would eventually replace him. He switch-hits and has batted in every batting order spot (but primarily second, third, and leadoff). And yet, at the end of his Twins career, he provided more flexibility. No, he didn’t reach the end of the contract with the Twins, but most baseball decision-makers would tell you that that’s not an issue. This trade wouldn’t have been possible had he never signed an extension. He would already be playing elsewhere. The sad reality is that front offices are constantly playing a value game, trying to keep as much talent in the organization as possible. Sometimes, that requires selling high. Sometimes, that requires moving on before the player is no longer valuable, whether based on them leaving the team in free agency or their production diminishing. The Rays are notorious for selling off the back end of their larger contracts, for instance, even if the player is still producing. However, Polanco’s situation was nearly perfect for the Twins. If he had bottomed out—if the injuries had caught up to him, if the bat had slowed, whatever—they could wash their hands of him. If they truly needed him on the field—if there was no Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis—he would have been a fine option, retaining his role. However, the Twins were in a position to move him with a controllable contract that the Mariners could also wash their hands of after 2024. But had they not struck a deal in 2019, none of that would have been relevant. Polanco would be playing second base for, I don’t know, maybe even the Mariners. But the Twins would have nothing to show for it. Sometimes pre-arbitration extensions backfire, but this one paid off. Even at the moment, it was entirely sensible. It’s a victory that the Twins had a decision to make in the first place. I wish it didn’t have to be. I was hoping for a rotation of five good infielders patrolling the dirt (and also warming a spot for Lee) in 2024. I wish that the payroll wasn’t something you, me, or my cousin Geoff needed to concern ourselves with. But good baseball teams make these types of moves and work within the confines they’re given. So long, Jorge. And thanks for the parting gifts. View full article

Ryan Jeffers had a terrific offensive year in 2023. As he looks to build on it—or merely repeat it—he has room to grow, and returning to form defensively could help him garner All-Star attention. Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports One of the most pleasant surprises in 2023 for the Minnesota Twins was Ryan Jeffers's year at the plate. In 335 plate appearances, he had an OPS of .858, 34 percent above league average, fueled by a second half in which he slashed .294/.379/.549. Among guys who primarily played catcher with at least 160 plate appearances, Jeffers had the best wRC+, at 138. A year like that was so unexpected that the Twins had brought in a defense-first catcher (in Christian Vázquez) on a three-year deal last offseason to start ahead of Jeffers. Despite Jeffers outhitting Vazquez by .260 in OPS, Vazquez accumulated 20 more plate appearances over the year. Though he started only 71 games at catcher, Jeffers was worth approximately three wins above replacement (WAR), according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, which roughly translates to being an above-average regular on the year. Again, he did that, starting less than half the time behind the plate (and just six times as a designated hitter). The offense wasn't a surprise to those following Jeffers throughout his professional career: he had a reputation as a bat-first player. However, beyond a 19-game debut in the 2020 abbreviated season, Jeffers failed to hit a league-average level between 2021 and 2022. Nonetheless, his defensive ability behind the plate was rated favorably. The progress he's made so far is why Cody Christie wrote yesterday on the question of whether Jeffers is underrated on a national level. The defense, as opposed to his bat, was not expected to be a strength when drafted. As the years went by, Jeffers took a different profile annually. Let's start at the beginning. As noted, the Twins drafted him as a bat-first catcher out of UNC-Wilmington. In the 2018 draft, Baseball America had him ranked as the 295th prospect, though they assumed he could go somewhere in the middle of the top 10 rounds if a team believed in his bat. The Twins—in a pick that seemed at the time to be due to Andy Reid-level clock mismanagement—picked him in the second round. They did believe in his bat. At the time, many expected his days behind the plate would end. He was viewed as a potential first baseman or designated hitter because his work behind the plate wouldn't cut it. However, as a minor leaguer, with the help of catching coordinator Tanner Swanson, Jeffers improved his footwork and his ability to receive the ball. By the time he reached Double-A, he was viewed as a potential plus behind the plate, in addition to his dangerous bat. He broke into the Majors in 2020, putting up solid hitting numbers, and showed a penchant for pitch-framing—ensuring that all strikes are called strikes and even making some borderline balls out to be strikes. His style wasn't the most aesthetically pleasing--occasionally derided as "finger painting"--but it worked. He wasn't good at blocking pitches or throwing out baserunners, throwing out just two of 16 base stealers, but that could be overlooked (to a degree) due to his framing and his bat. That could be improved with the same amount of work he had put into receiving, right? In 2021, he fared better in both categories, per FanGraphs's catching metrics. However, he was still slightly below average at throwing runners out (24 percent caught stealing, as opposed to the general benchmark of 25 percent). However, in 2022, his metrics in both categories plummeted, including catching just seven of 38 runners (18 percent). Nonetheless, his strong framing kept him at least at a league-average level of defense overall. His offensive numbers between 2021 and 2022 didn't justify a starting role. A so-so defensive catcher with a mediocre bat is a backup. At least one of those traits needs to be above-average, so pairing him with an established veteran like Vázquez was a priority. Still, his pitch framing remained consistently effective—not elite, but enough to justify his presence behind the plate. If he could also improve in controlling the running game and blocking pitches in front of him, he could reach his ceiling as a plus catcher. He went through an arm-strengthening program before the 2023 season, determined to eliminate that weakness from his game. Despite a solid start to the year, based on numbers provided by FanGraphs, Jeffers caught just 14 percent of runners at second base, compared to a 29 percent expected rate, given the speed and position of the runners when he caught the ball. He caught five fewer runners than expected, 61st of 63 in the league. However, as in past years, his struggles with the running game could have been negated by his ability to frame pitches. Instead, surprisingly, Jeffers ranked in the bottom quartile of the league in framing runs with -4. For reference, he had two runs saved in 2021 and 2022 in less action each year. He negated two years of good pitch framing in a single year. I can't sit here and tell you definitively that he sacrificed his framing to be a better thrower behind the plate—though he did struggle mightily framing anything that wasn't up and to his left, despite previous success with pitches down in the zone. If there was a change in his approach to be better able to get rid of the ball that prevented him from getting those low calls—such as setting up less often on one knee—it might be worth reevaluating, though. For example, see the two videos below. The first is from 2022, as Jeffers gets a called strike off the plate. The second is from 2023, and he fails to get a strike call. In the second, he waits longer to get down, seemingly to hold the runner and stay in a position that allows him to get up. Furthermore, he catches the ball with his arm full extended, perhaps to get the ball as soon as possible, which leads to a jerkier receiving motion. d3pOODhfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdoV1hWeFJYd0lBRGxwUVZnQUFBd2NGQUZnREFsZ0FCMVVIQlZjQkNRc0dBRlFF.mp4 eFprRFZfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxWU1hGRUZVUUlBWFZ0VUF3QUFWd0VFQUZnQVVRSUFBd0JSVkZaUVVnRlRWVmNE.mp4 Neither his baserunner control nor his blocking saw any benefit to whatever changes he made coming into last season (if there were any any), to the point that he was (overall) a far worse than average defensive catcher, with all areas diminishing. If Jeffers can return to form with his framing in 2024, even without a marked improvement to his other abilities, he can elevate his game and become one of the league's top catchers. He might not repeat the offensive year that ranked him the top-hitting catcher. Still, if he can pair well-above-average offense with an average to above-average total defensive package, he could be one of the best overall catchers in the league. He's earned more time than he got in 2023. However, the Twins have tended to prefer a timeshare at catcher. If he starts 60 percent of the team's games, that would amount to 95 starts and approximately 400 plate appearances, giving him the potential to turn in a 4-WAR season—a good baseline standard for an All-Star. To be in that conversation, he must restore his framing to its former glory. View full article

All the title needs is the word “Permanently,” but it was already wordy enough, so I took that out.