Greggory Masterson

…is a question you might be asking. There are answers to this question and others inside. Maybe you’ll like the answers; maybe you won’t. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images On Monday night, Royce Lewis played three innings at second base during a tight win over the Tampa Bay Rays. On Wednesday night, the Twins’ Opening Day third baseman and franchise building block started a game at second base for the first time in his MLB career. What gives? Why is Royce Lewis playing second base? The most straightforward answer is that the Twins are playing a numbers game, and it’s been dogging them for a few months now. They have too many corner-only bats but not enough corner spots. On any given night, it would be nice to have Lewis, Jose Miranda, Carlos Santana, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Max Kepler (if healthy) in the lineup against a righty. Unfortunately, that group only plays left field, right field, third base, and first base. Add the DH spot, and you’ll have six players for five positions. Every night, one of those guys has to sit. If any come off the bench to pinch hit, they probably have to come right back out, or one of the starters needs to trade places with them on the pine. That’s an issue when a player like Austin Martin or Michael Helman are starting games and might require a late pinch hitter. Lewis having the ability to move over to second base fixes many problems. Who would it be if it wasn’t Lewis who added another position to his bag of tricks? Jose Miranda: Second Baseman? (Miranda has actually played more second base as a professional than Lewis has played third) Of course, you might say that Max Kepler shouldn’t be playing as much as he is, but I guess that’s a different conversation. And moot for the time being, since he placed on the injured list on Thursday. So is Royce Lewis a second baseman now? Probably not, but like we saw with Jorge Polanco down the stretch in 2023 filling in at third base to even out the lineup, we might see him start there occasionally or move over when the team is making a move in-game. He’ll likely still see plenty of action at third and DH. In the future, his long-term home might be second base. Both he and Brooks Lee appear to be around for the long haul, so they need to find an alignment that suits them. Lewis’s worst tool has always been his arm, and second base might suit him better, though he’s been playing at least some third base since high school. Lee looks a natural at either. It’s anyone’s guess how that shakes out. So why isn’t Brooks Lee moving to second instead? Brooks is kind of occupied right now. The Twins are missing both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton at present. Willi Castro has been moved to center field since Lee’s return from injury last week, and Lee is planted at short until Correa’s eventual return. Lewis was a shortstop in the minor leagues, but he’s since bulked up and has blown out his knee twice in the interim. It appears the Twins have stopped viewing him as an option at short, to the extent that Jose Miranda finished a game at shortstop over him last week. You can disagree with the decision to move Lewis off shortstop permanently, but it looks like his days there are over. Lee needs to stick at shortstop for the time being. I’m sure that if the Twins had their way, Lee would be the one bouncing around, and Lewis would be entrenched at a spot. But that's not what they need right now. I get teaching a new position in spring training, but why during a pennant race? They’re doing this because they’re in a pennant race. They’re trying to get as much offense and in-game flexibility out of their sputtering lineup as possible. Ideally, this is an offseason and spring project, but they don’t have that luxury. We’ve already discussed the corner position crunch, but here’s another way to think of it. The other options at second base right now are Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, Martin, and Helman. You can throw Castro into that mix, but that would require Martin or Helman to be in center field. None of those names excite you offensively right now, yeah? If Lewis can play a few innings at second or start there now and then, the Twins doing what they can to inject offense into this team. They desperately need it now, and desperate times call for desperate measures. The best lineup requires Lewis to be able to play somewhere up the middle, at least occasionally. Lewis has also gotten some work at second base before. It’s not a ton, but he did play second base four times in the 2019 Arizona Fall League, and the Twins worked him out there in 2022 as they were trying to find ways to get him on the field. Also, it’s not like learning second base after playing at shortstop and third is the same as teaching him to catch. They’re all infield positions. "Tell him, Wash." What if Royce Lewis gets hurt playing a new position? Fortunately the center field wall is hundreds of feet behind second base. Perhaps Lewis is at a higher risk of landing awkwardly at the bag or making throws that he’s not used to. Sure. But the Twins are aware of whatever minimal injury risk that incurs, and it seems like the rewards outweigh the risk. If this decision directly leads to an injury (i.e., something unique about second base, not any injury, because we've seen the frequency that happens already), I guess you can say "I told you so." It’s also not a completely new position. But Rocco said … Managers say things because the media needs an answer. Situations evolve. Coaches change their minds. It’s not a conspiracy. I’d honestly recommend not listening to 90% of what they say in the first place. Maybe 100%. Royce said he’s uncomfortable over there. Shouldn’t we listen to him? Royce also says a lot of things. He at least appears to be more forthcoming with his thoughts than a lot of players, but it’s bad practice to take his responses (or anyone’s) as gospel truth or a crystal picture of reality. Lewis probably is uncomfortable over there, but how uncomfortable? We can’t be definitively sure. It’s a daunting challenge. Picking up a new position in the September of a playoff push is probably nerve-wracking. It might even be an annoying distraction. But life isn’t always perfect, and sometimes you need your stars to go above and beyond to put your best players on the field as much as possible, or at least in an optimal way. Lewis strictly playing third base handcuffs the team to an extent. It’s okay to be uncomfortable. Won’t jerking him around like this make him less likely to come back in free agency? Talk to me after the 2028 season when he’s a free agent. He’s a Boras client, anyway. But beyond that, come on. If asking him to sporadically cover a position in the short term or begin his transition to being a full-time second baseman a little early is enough for him to put his foot down and decide he doesn’t want to stick around Minnesota, do you really want to see him stay? It’s on the organization to do what they see necessary to win games, not grovel to their stars, hoping they take a sweetheart deal to stick around four years from now. Also, this is just a scenario in your head. There’s no indication that this is a real conversation going on right now. View full article

Lighten up, Francis

Minnesota sports fans are cursed. How cursed are they? They’re so cursed that even when their favorite players are on the cusp of breaking records for all the wrong reasons, those moments get ruined for them, too. Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Maybe this is what we deserve. During Saturday’s blowout game against the Blue Jays, Manuel Margot was replaced in the sixth inning with groin tightness. Sunday morning, Margot landed on the 10-day injured list. A particular type of fan—we’ll affectionately refer to them as “sickos” henceforth—is devastated. Why, you ask? History. Our friend Margot has been chasing history, if you weren't aware. I wrote about it a month ago. In addition to his exploits in the field, Margot has been historically bad as a pinch-hitter. Only two players in MLB have been asked to pinch-hit more often than Margot, yet Margot has no hits as a pinch-hitter. Sickos and disgruntled fans have been tracking this story all year, though probably for different reasons. And now, it’s been taken away from us, just on the cusp of history. On Aug. 30, Margot dug in as a pinch-hitter for the 33rd time all season, and worked a walk. That’s 33 pinch-hitting plate appearances without a hit. The record for most plate appearances as a pinch-hitter without a hit in a season? Thirty-four, by Jonny Gomes in 2011. In a typical year, the least successful pinch-hitter has around 15 appearances. Now, with just a couple dozen games to play, Margot’s odds of breaking the record look bleak. Manager Rocco Baldelli, who started the year by using Margot as a pinch-hitter in five of the first six games, has scaled back Margot’s usage off the bench in recent months. Still, Margot only needed one more unsuccessful trip to the plate to tie the record, and then one more to break it. Even if Margot only misses the minimum of 10 days, he’ll have just 17 games in a pennant race. Each game he misses beyond the minimum makes it less likely, and recovery from groin injury is hard to predict. This actually marks the second time in the past two years that the injury bug has let down the sickos. In 2023, Carlos Correa was hobbled by plantar fasciitis that, along with bad luck, contributed to a league-leading 30 double plays grounded into. That injury led to Correa sitting out the final 11 games of the season. At one point, Correa was on track to break the single-season record, but his “production” also slowed, and his season was cut short. Correa was less likely than Margot to set a new record, needing to ground into six double plays in the team’s final 11 games, but it’s frustrating he didn’t have the full opportunity to go for it. Even when the Twins have managed to set unfortunate records in the past couple of years, it’s been for naught. In 2023, behind the bats of Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, Byron Buxton, and Edouard Julien, the Twins set the all-time record for strikeouts as a team with 1,654. As we speak, the 2024 Seattle Mariners are on pace to challenge that record with a projected 1,649 for the season (they currently sit at 1,430, with 21 games to go), and Colorado could also compete for the record, sitting at 1,393 (on pace for 1,600). And don’t even get me started on the Twins ending their run of 18 straight playoff losses. That’s a record that won’t be broken anytime soon, but it would take the squad a decade to get another streak to 19. Why do bad things happen to sick fans? We, Minnesota sports fans, are so bad at being cursed that we can’t even hold on to curses. The sickos among us mourn. View full article

September call-ups provide a moment for minor leaguers to seize everything they ever wanted. Will this one capture it, or just let it slip? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Ahead of Sunday’s September roster expansion—the day that MLB teams' active rosters move from 26 to 28 players—most expected the Twins’ lone hitting addition to be the rehabbing prospect, Brooks Lee. Lee was, indeed, activated from his rehab stint in Triple-A, but an unexpected second move was made, too: the Twins selected the contract of Michael Helman. Helman, an 11th-round draft pick out of Texas A&M in 2018, probably can’t be labeled a prospect anymore, as he turned 28 in May. Even as a prospect, he rarely cracked organizational top-30 lists. He comes with little fanfare. However, he has a tremendous opportunity in front of him. Helman was selected to replace injured platoon outfielder Manuel Margot. Without a Margot injury, we probably wouldn’t see Helman, but opportunities are hard to come by when you’re a 28-year-old in his third year at Triple-A. Helman has hit well this season, carrying the fourth-highest OPS on St. Paul’s squad at .876. He’s been about 25 percent better than an average hitter in the International League over the past two seasons. This trip may be a standard cup of coffee for a minor-league veteran—something of a “thank you” from the organization. Byron Buxton’s return from injury may be imminent, which would jeopardize Helman’s spot. Still, Helman should have some opportunity to make an impression on the big-league club. It’s vital for any player in the same archetype as Helman (middle-round draft pick with little prospect pedigree, now in his late 20s) to do so. However, Helman is precisely positioned to have a shot at a big-league role in Minnesota next season. We all know the current payroll situation. There are no signs of it improving this offseason, and with the contracts on the books for 2025 already projected to exceed the 2024 payroll, it’s hard to see the front office being permitted to throw much money around. Most (read: all, including the players affected) expect the club to decline team options on Margot and platoon infielder Kyle Farmer, among other cost-saving measures. Margot and Farmer's all-but-certain departures are especially pertinent to a player like Helman. Helman is right-handed, like those two, and he has been playing shortstop, third base, second base, center field, and left field in St. Paul. Those five positions combine for 79 percent of Margot and Farmer’s innings (with the remaining 21% being Margot’s 220 innings in right field). It’s debatable exactly how well Helman can play those positions, but that flexibility is valuable for a player whose best-case scenario is that of a utilityman. And the Twins are a club that loves righty bench players who can fill the weak side of a platoon. Add his speed into Helman’s profile (he’s stolen bases with an 81 percent success rate), and he can provide value in a number of different ways. His .875 OPS in the hitter-friendly International League doesn’t guarantee success, but if he can hit lefties competently, he could be an option for Minnesota in 2025 and beyond as a platoon bat. This season, he’s been worse against lefties than righties, but he’s historically hit marginally better against southpaws. Reverse splits for hitters are rare, and it's very unlikely that Helman is such a player. The unfortunate truth for Helman is just how limited this opportunity is. Next season, he’ll be 29. He has no standout tool, though his speed is respectable. He has internal competition for this hypothetical righty utility player spot, too. You don’t need to look further than Austin Martin, another speedy youngster who can play in the outfield and on the dirt. Helman is slower than Martin, and there’s less confidence in the 28-year-old’s bat, though Helman possesses more skill in the field and positional flexibility. He’s also three years older than Martin. Beyond that, this cup of coffee may only last days, as the return of Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa likely squeeze Helman out of work, assuming no other injuries manifest (then again: who are we kidding?). However, this is his moment. The next one isn’t guaranteed. If Helman impresses in any way whatsoever over the next month of baseball, his future can be drastically changed. Twenty-eight-year-old minor leaguers are often on the chopping block over the offseason, as players are taken off the 60-day injured list, get protected ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, or are otherwise acquired by the organization. When the team is trying to reduce payroll, though, that pressure tends to lighten a bit. There is a role for Helman to step into next year, amid the loss of veteran role players and a limited budget. It’s the perfect storm for Helman to latch on to a major-league job, if even for a season or two. Is it likely? Probably not. He’s thus far avoided the Drew Maggi-Moonlight Graham treatment as he’s in the lineup for Tuesday night’s game. It’s a chance, for a man who’s worked his keister off to get this far. View full article

It's a tough time to be a Twins fan. Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg are joined by Nick Nelson to proclaim that the season is over, but Naive Cody says it's fine. They also answer listener questions and play an Immaculate Gregg. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

The Twins have spent years being one of the slowest teams in the league. They still are, but that hasn’t stopped them from sneaking their way from first to second, over and over again. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are not fast. The team is in the bottom third of the league in terms of stolen bases and caught-stealing percentage. They’ve been at the bottom of the league in steals for years. It’s by design—they don’t employ fast players. But the other stat can’t be blamed on the team’s slowest guys. The Twins’ most prolific speed guys also lead the team in steals: Willi Castro (12), Austin Martin (7), and Byron Buxton (6). Those are low numbers, but it gets worse. Castro (60% success rate) and Martin (70%) have been inefficient, probably giving away more runs than they’re taking while trying to steal. Buxton (75%), previously the most efficient base stealer in baseball history, has been technically neutral, but below the ever-rising league average. The three of them have stolen a combined 25 bases in 37 tries, an inefficient 68-percent success rate. The rule of thumb is that a player or team should successfully steal around 75 percent of the time, and since last year's rule changes, the league is closer to 80%. Beyond that trio, the Twins don’t have much in the way of stolen base threats. Max Kepler and Manuel Margot ran very well when they were younger, but neither have attempted many steals in their career and neither has ever been especially successful. Edouard Julien stole many bases in the minors, but much of that success was based on gaming the pitch clock in the lower levels. Due to reduced speed and injury risk, Royce Lewis hasn’t attempted a stolen base since 2023. And yet, Twins who aren’t named Castro, Martin, and Buxton are a combined 36 for 44 (82%) on stolen bases. They’re 33 for 36 (92%) if you exclude Kyle Farmer’s season-long baserunning shenanigans (three for eight stealing bases and several other TOOTBLANS). How are they doing it? Sheer cunning. Julien (6), Margot (4), Carlos Santana (4), Trevor Larnach (4), Ryan Jeffers (3), Matt Wallner (3), Brooks Lee (3), and Kepler (1) have each stolen bases without being thrown out this season. Christian Vázquez (3 steals) has been caught once, and José Miranda (2) twice. That’s not a list of names that make pitchers sweat while they’re in the stretch, yet they’ve managed to gain ground for the team with remarkable efficiency. QnZ6enJfVjBZQUhRPT1fQlFWWUJsMEJCVmNBRDFFRFZnQUFBVmRWQUFNR0FRUUFVMU5YVkFzRUNRQUFDUU1D.mp4 That last sentence probably contained the key: they’re not making pitchers sweat. If you were a pitcher and Carlos Santana was standing at first base, how much attention would you give him? Probably not much. He’s no Rickey Henderson. He’s not even Gunnar Henderson. But Santana has stolen 17 bases in a row, dating back to 2018. Move over Byron Buxton; there’s a new efficiency king in town. The Twins have become remarkably good at stealing off the pitcher this season. It’s a skill that even the fastest players in baseball need to learn to be successful. Good jumps can make good runners great and great runners elite. Heck, Rod Carew himself has referenced how Billy Martin taught him how to steal home in 1969, and he responded by setting the all-time record for stealing home in a season. Stealing off the pitcher doesn’t make a slow runner a good runner, but gaining an extra 90 feet can be the difference between scoring a run and a man left on; it’s incredibly valuable. Sometimes, stealing off the pitcher means that the pitcher’s delivery doesn’t allow the catcher to get a throw down to second in time to catch a base stealer. Other times, stealing off the pitcher comes down to recognizing the pitcher isn’t paying attention at all. QVlWeEtfVjBZQUhRPT1fVlZCVkFsVlhCMUVBV2xzTEJ3QUFBUUpRQUFBR0FWUUFWRkZUQWdRREFncFJBd1pS.mp4 The latter is where the Twins have excelled in 2024. A lackadaisical pitcher, all but forgetting that a baserunner is on, can almost gift a runner, regardless of speed, a free base—assuming that the runner picks up on the pitcher’s lack of attention. Observant runners and good base coaches can make that happen. Many times this year, slower Twins runners like Santana, Wallner, and Larnach have walked out to big leads and run on first motion as the pitcher delivers from the stretch. One of the benefits of being speed-challenged is that the pitcher often doesn’t waste effort on a throwover, which allows for running on first motion. The pitch clock also serves as a cue at times. A few times this year, a runner has been able to anticipate the ball being delivered because of the clock approaching one and can take off for a second before the ball is even delivered. This practice is a recent development for Minnesota. Excluding their “speed guys” in 2023 (Castro, Buxton, Lewis, Michael A. Taylor, Andrew Stevenson), they went 21 for 31 (68%). In 2022, excluding their speed guys (Buxton, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino), they went 22 for 34 (65%). In 2021, excluding their speed guys (Jorge Polanco, Kepler, Gordon, Buxton), they went 14 for 21 (67%). No, this new trick isn’t the difference between a great running team and a poor one, but it is a little thing that helps to win games. And for a team that has been panned for not doing the little things in recent years, it’s a pleasant development. They’re a slow team that runs better than their raw speed would suggest. It should be a notch in the players’ and the coaches’ belts. And maybe if they do it enough, it will provide another thing that pitchers must keep in mind when a tottering corner bat reaches first base in the playoffs. It’s the little things, and their slower players have been providing more value via stealing bases than their fast players this season. View full article

The Twins commemorated the 1924 Washington Senators World Series victory last week, the first of three championships in franchise history. They recently finished a series against another team who used to play as the Senators. Any fans disinterested in the club before it reached Minnesota probably hate baseball. The Twins got their start in 1901 as the Washington Senators. Sure, they began playing baseball in Bloomington 60 years later, but they didn’t fall out of a coconut red pine tree. They have a proud history as one of the eight charter member franchises of the American League. As such, they are responsible for maintaining that place in baseball history. Many Minnesota fans may be hesitant to embrace that responsibility. Some may not even be aware of the franchise’s history prior to 1961. There was some confusion amid the Twins’ celebration of the 1924 World Series and (hilarious, out-of-context) retiring of the W alongside Twins greats and Jackie Robinson’s 42 two weeks ago. In 1961, Calvin Griffith moved the Washington Senators (sometimes referred to as the Nationals) to Minnesota and renamed them the Twins. Baseball was moving to the West, and Griffith saw an opportunity to place a team in the Upper Midwest. Teams moved all the time, back then. Of the eight charter members of the American League, only four remained in the city they started. The Athletics had moved from Philadelphia to Kansas City in 1955. They kept their name the whole way, but the Brewers decamped from Milwaukee to St. Louis and rebranded themselves the Browns--then, when they flitted off to Baltimore, they became the Orioles. (The original Baltimore Orioles folded.) It’s what teams did, and continue to do. Sometimes they kept their names, like the Athletics or the Boston-Milwaukee-Atlanta team that really wanted to hang onto their branding. Other teams remained in place and changed names, like the Cleveland Bluebirds-turned-Bronchos-turned-Naps, who also finally settled on one name for a long while before becoming the Guardians a few years ago. That movement or name change doesn’t mean that the franchise ended. The players were still there. The most obvious example for Minnesota fans is Harmon Killebrew. Killer played for the franchise 21 of his 22 years in MLB. Six of those seasons came for the Washington Senators, which includes an All-Star appearance in 1959. Other Twins legends, like Earl Battey, Bob Allison, Camilo Pasqual, Jim Kaat, and Zoilo Versalles came over in the relocation. At that time, they were as much Senators as they were Twins. Sure, they didn’t play in Minnesota before 1961, but they never left their organization to get here. It was the same guys, in a different shirt. This might be controversial to say, but the team does not belong to the city; it just lives there. Just ask baseball fans in Philadelphia, Kansas City, and now Oakland. We're 140 years past the idea that professional-caliber teams would be made up principally of players from the city they represented. Once that representation ceases to be geographically determined, one has to acknowledge that some of our loyalty is to the organization, rather than the place. How much of each it ought to be is a personal choice for each fan. Baseball continued in the nation’s capital. Immediately after the Senators left for Minnesota, MLB expanded and placed a new Washington Senators in D.C. The District of Columbia kept baseball, but that’s a new team, even if it has a different name. Killebrew, Allison, Pasqual, Kaat, and Versalles were replaced by Dick Donovan, Joe McClain, and Bennie Daniels. The rose by another name didn’t smell as sweet. What claim did the new Senators have over the old Senators? They didn’t get to claim Killebrew and company. They had their own story to write. And they wrote that story in Washington until 1971, when the franchise relocated to Arlington and became the Rangers. Three decades later, the Capitol got another shot at baseball in the form of the Washington Expos’ relocation and rebranding as the Nationals. But, again, they brought their own story to the D.C. Why does this history lesson matter? Well, for one, it lays out the complexity of the revolving door of baseball teams in Washington. But it also highlights a conundrum—a confusion over who retains the Washington Senators' history. As a Minnesota baseball fan, that might not matter to you. But it should. No player’s story better drives home the point than Walter Johnson. The Big Train, depending on your definition, may be the greatest pitcher in the history of baseball. All-time, he ranks 1st in shutouts, 2nd in wins (417), 3rd in innings pitched (5,914), 7th in ERA (2.17), and 9th in strikeouts (3,508). Baseball Reference ranks him 2nd in career pitching WAR, and FanGraphs ranks him 4th. Johnson played his entire 21-year career for the Senators, between 1907 and 1927. He deserves to be celebrated, even by current baseball fans. But who will do it, if not the Twins—the franchise for which he threw almost 6,000 innings? The Texas Rangers lay no claim to him. Those Senators didn’t exist within Johnson’s lifetime, and they were only in town for 11 years. It’d be sacrilege to have a Walter Johnson night in Arlington. The Nationals have a better case, but it’s still weak. The franchise now resides in D.C., and at times the Senators of yore went by the name Nationals, but this franchise, which started in Montreal decades after Johnson’s passing, has no connection to him other than living in the same place 80 years after his career ended. I’ll be dead before the former Montreal Expos have the honor of calling Walter Johnson one of their own, at least in any exclusive sense. That duty, and privilege, falls to the Twins—the franchise that employed Johnson for 21 years. There's real connective tissue between him and these Twins. For better and worse, the Twins organization's history can't be told without Calvin Griffith, whose father Clark pitched alongside Johnson and then became the president of the team, before passing it to his stepson. Calvin, the same man whose casual racism cost the Twins Rod Carew in the 1970s, was a bat boy for Johnson the year he did what Carew never quite could--bat .400 in a championship season. It's not all happy history, but the Griffith family is a vital part of Twins history, and the Griffith family became a baseball family in Washington. Sure, you might say that Johnson belongs to Washington baseball and its fans, and you have a point. Because a franchise and the place where it resides are not one and the same, a player, a team, and a local fan base can all belong to each other, with overlapping, countervailing, and interleaved loyalties. You can apply that same logic to Minnesota baseball fans, to explain why those fans might have no connection to Johnson. But it’s not about Minnesotans and Minnecentrism. It’s about baseball history. You don’t have to claim Walter Johnson as a Minnesota baseball legend. But the Minnesota Twins—the former Washington Senators, who live here now—do need to claim him, because no other franchise properly can. Walter Johnson is a giant in baseball history, but there are also 39 more years of non-Big Train baseball for the franchise in Washington. There are 60 years of stories to be preserved. If the Twins don’t take it upon themselves to keep that history alive, who will? Sure as hell not the ex-Expos. View full article

We have a lot of ground to cover, let's get to it. Lou, Cody, and Gregg are joined by Episode 0 star Matt Braun to try to dissect 14 games in 13 day with its share of ups and downs. They consider fearmongering about the state of the bullpen, question whether the Twins have the best catching duo in baseball, complain about the Washington Senators, misquote Star Wars, and so much more. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

In the latest episode of the Off-Daily podcast, the crew takes a look at the ups and downs of facing Chicago. Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg are joined by Adam Friedman to recap the two Chicago series. They also discuss Joe Ryan leaving Wednesday's game, look ahead to a pivotal four-game series against Cleveland, the morality of being lefthanded, and more. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

Let's reminisce about the trade deadline that wasn't. Sweet Lou and Ol' Gregg run a skeleton crew as they get some gripes off their chest about the Twins' quiet deadline and a mixed bag series of games. They also discuss the outlook of the starting rotation, add a new podcast game to the lineup, Lou insults a ballpark favorite, and Gregg tries out a couple new voices. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

It’s past the point of absurdity. The man who leads baseball in pinch-hitting appearances does not have a single hit. How long will this go on? Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports Manuel Margot effectively has one job: hitting lefty pitching. Manuel Margot has hit lefty pitching, but please don’t make him pinch-hit lefty (or any other kind of) pitching. In a Rocco Baldelli offense, the lineup is malleable, all the way to the final out. Based on the matchup with the opposing pitcher, any player can play on any given day, in any inning. Baldelli is ready to empty the bench and play a matchup game if the other team brings in a lefty reliever. Margot has been called on all year in those situations, and he has not delivered, beginning with his five-pinch-hitting appearances in the team’s first six games. His 29 pinch-hitting appearances, as of Jul. 25, are the most in baseball. His zero hits are, ah, tied for last in baseball. He has started 43 games, but came in as a pinch hitter for an additional 29. Forty percent of the games he’s played in have featured a pinch-hit appearance. For a role player, that’s enough to tank a season. On the year, Margot has a .138 OPS pinch-hitting, because he’s taken four walks, but even those can’t save his 0-25 line. He’s having the worst season of his career overall, with a .628 OPS, about 20% below average. He’s never been a great hitter, but his career average is about 10% below average. Yet somehow, outside of pinch-hitting, Margot has done his job at the plate. If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. Let’s dig in. First, Margot was acquired to hit lefty pitching. The Twins have struggled for years getting production versus lefties from their corner outfield spots, mainly because their most prominent options there are lefties themselves. On the season, Margot has hit lefty pitchers very well, at .298 with a .789 OPS (24% above average). That actually matches his career averages against southpaws. He’s a bit inconsistent year-to-year, but overall, he’s got a 122 OPS+ against lefties for his career. That .789 OPS includes his pinch-hitting appearances, by the way. If you exclude his pinch-hitting appearances, he has a .354 average and a .903 OPS (50% above average) in 86 plate appearances. Managers stomp their feet and make tugboat noises while their eyes become giant hearts and pop out of their sockets when they see a platoon hitter like that. In games he starts against lefties, he’s got an .898 OPS, and has typically batted leadoff. The ugly side of this coin, of course, is that he’s doing almost nothing against righties, slashing a pitiful .183/.246/.248 overall. It’d be better to have Christian Vázquez at the plate than Margot. However, with the team the Twins have constructed, Margot shouldn’t be needed against righties, so it’s a bit beside the point. However, if Margot can’t be trusted to do anything productive as a pinch-hitter, it slightly crimps Baldelli’s style. Margot has never been a good pinch-hitter, but this season has taken it to a new level. His pinch-hitting OPS had been .584 in previous years, about 40% below league average over 66 plate appearances. (Notice that he's had 66 pinch-hitting appearances in the eight years leading up to 2024, but 29 already this season.) That’s over 100 points of OPS below his career OPS of .694. That’s not uncommon, as most players end up about 15% worse as pinch-hitters. It’s not an easy job. In 2024, the league OPS is .708, and the OPS among pinch-hitters is .625. His performance exists in the context of what came before him, but Margot’s performance this year has been comical. One of the strangest bits of data for Margot this year has been his performance after pinch-hitting. He’s had some clutch hits in games he didn’t start, but they’ve all been after his first plate appearance. After his initial pinch-hitting appearances, he’s slashing .286/.318/.429 in 22 other plate appearances. As I mentioned, the further we break down his season’s performance into things like “22 plate appearances after coming in as a pinch-hitter and getting additional plate appearances,” the less meaningful it gets, but this all paints a picture of an oddity who cannot, for the life of him, do this one very specific task. In the past 10 years, the greatest number of plate appearances as a pinch-hitter without a single hit by the end of the season is 24 (Alec Burleson, 2023; Tucker Barnhart, 2019). Make it the last 50 years, and only 11 players have had more than 20 pinch-hit trips without a hit. The record belongs to Jonny Gomes, who had 34 plate appearances in the role without getting a hit in 2011. In any given year, it typically maxes out around 15. Maybe Margot gets one before the year ends, but his 29 is incredibly glaring right now. He's already second to Gomes in the last half-century. Unfortunately, his role in a Rocco Baldelli offense requires production as a pinch-hitter. His offensive job (we don’t need to focus on his defense today, thankfully) this season is to hit lefties, either as a starter or off the bench. If he can only do one of those well, that hamstrings Baldelli--which may be a good thing, depending on your feelings about Baldelli’s management. For much of the year, there hasn’t been a great alternative for a bench bat, especially in games that Ryan Jeffers catches, as Kyle Farmer has often been the other platoon hitter. Hopefully, as the season reaches its stretch run, Margot’s pinch-hitting duties will be redistributed to others, including Carlos Santana or José Miranda. The true sicko in me wants Margot to continue to be the most-used pinch hitter in MLB, but that’s probably not what’s best for the team. Even Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach’s paltry hitting against lefties (.414 and .565 OPS, respectively) would far outpace Margot’s pinch-hitting this year, which is relevant because Wallner and Larnach are the hitters Margot would primarily hit for. This is a lot of hand-wringing about 29 plate appearances, and there’s a lot of noise in isolating 10% of a player’s plate appearances for a season, but it’s gotten to the point it needs to be acknowledged. No, Margot’s true talent level probably isn’t a .143 OPS as a pinch hitter, but, man, there’s something goofy afoot. View full article

This might be the deadline-iest deadline ever. Lou, Cody, and Gregg are joined by Twins Daily Managing Editor Matthew Trueblood as we cover an array of topics. From newly drafted prospects to trade deadline wish lists and Minnesotan Minnesota Twins to the difference between parody and satire, this episode has everything. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

Chris Paddack is on the injured list for the second time this month, and with the trade deadline less than a week away, his injury signals that it’s time for the Twins to stop pussyfooting around and make a move. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the first half, fans have frequently speculated about whether the Twins would be shopping in the starting pitcher department at the 2024 trade deadline. Chris Paddack’s recent forearm injury all but confirmed that they will be. Paddack is in his first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery, and he already took a trip to the injured list at the end of June for arm fatigue. After returning ahead of the All-Star break, he started two games, but over the break, he felt some forearm soreness that re-shelved him. Paddack’s season was somewhat wait-and-see. The Twins signed him to a low-end extension in 2023 as he recovered from Tommy John, because they saw something in the 28-year-old. Throughout his Twins (and Padres) career, there have been questions about his effectiveness, with high highs (such as his 2019 rookie season) and low lows (two torn UCLs). This season has been a bit of the same story for Paddack, as he’s been inconsistent. He’s had great starts, like his eight innings of two-run ball against Cleveland in May; and he’s had terrible starts, like his five innings of nine-run ball against Baltimore in April. The Twins had four months to figure out who Paddack was. Given that the team’s top three pitchers were already somewhat established coming into the season—some arrangement of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober—it’s understandable that the club would be interested in slow-playing Paddack, letting him prove his worth. Now, though, he’s out through at least the deadline. They have all the information they’re going to get. Internal replacements for Paddack are scarce. Simeon Woods Richardson has already replaced Louie Varland in the rotation, and Varland has not been promising as a starter in St. Paul this season. The only other pitcher to start a game for the Twins this year is rookie David Festa, whose two spot starts for Paddack left much to be desired. Other options internally would include Randy Dobnak, Caleb Boushley, or newly-promoted Triple-A starter Zebby Mathews. But the Twins need someone who can start a playoff game, and Paddack, at this point, can’t be counted on for that. Woods Richardson would be the best bet, but there’s not a ton of confidence in the rookie, who has overperformed both his expectations and his expected numbers this year. If he does start in the playoffs, it would more likely be at the beginning of a bullpen-heavy game. Making a trade for a Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, or Jack Flaherty is the best way to counter this injury for Paddack and fill the playoff rotation spot. However, the injury and uncertainty might lower the bar for an acquisition below the Bailey Ober threshold. It’s not sexy, but without Paddack, the Twins need to at least find someone who can throw competent innings down the stretch. Even if that pitcher doesn’t start a playoff game, or only goes once through the order, relying on some combination of Varland, Festa, and Dobnak to take the mound every fifth day is unbecoming of a team chasing Cleveland for the division. That opens the door for someone in the Michael Lorenzen or Tyler Anderson range. Even recently-waived James Paxton could be an option, if the goal is simply to find someone to throw innings down the stretch, a la 2023 Dallas Keuchel. This discussion might seem like it’s ruling out a return for Paddack this season, but it’s not. Although we don’t have a timetable for his return, it’s possible that he recovers and is ready to pitch again this year. At this point, though, the Twins probably shouldn’t be planning on that. We’re weeks from that hypothetical (but not improbable) return, and by the time they have an answer, it might be too late. That’s not even factoring in potential injury to the rest of the rotation. If Paddack is eventually back and healthy and the Twins have made a move to fill his spot in the rotation, there are a few different ways the rest of the season can go. First, as just mentioned, it’s possible that, by his return, the starting rotation (which has been largely healthy all year) is in need of an injury fill-in. That’s straightforward, though disappointing. Another disappointing option could be Paddack replacing Woods Richardson, while the rookie takes a few weeks to rest and consolidate in St. Paul as the season winds down. Paddack (as well as the rest of the rotation) is under contract for 2025, so it’s not like they’ll be cutting bait on him. Another option may be a transition to the bullpen for the stretch run and postseason. Paddack agreed to play such a role last season, knowing he wouldn't have time to ramp up as a starter after rehabbing from the previous year's surgery. He only pitched five innings in relief across three appearances in the regular season, but he pitched well in the postseason, with two appearances totaling 3 2/3 innings, no runs, and six strikeouts. If he returns in mid-August and the rotation is full, that move might benefit the recovering pitcher whose 88 innings are already his most since 2021 (108) and the third-most of his six-year career. No matter what the plan or outcome of Paddack’s latest injury may be, it’s clear that the Twins need to do something, and soon. They don’t have the luxury of being able to see into the future with Paddack’s arm. The odds of a move, big or small, went up drastically when Paddack hit the injured list again, which should excite fans who have been clamoring for a move (though we never celebrate an injury, of course). Of course, all of this speculation is moot if the team is too hamstrung by budget constraints to add any players at all. Here's hoping that, given the fairly clear and increased degree of need at hand, the team is able to work around the financial constraints foisted on them by ownership, and that soon, we can stop talking about that at the end of this kind of article. The organization's voluntary self-defeat is no fun for anyone, from fans to the very people entrusted with building the team each year. View full article