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Everything posted by Greggory Masterson
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If you’re among the crowd who prefers that the Twins let their young lefty hitters see lefty pitching, one Rocco Baldelli comment might be cause for optimism. Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images It’s no secret the Twins have liked to employ platoons. At times over the past handful of seasons, the Twins have run out full lineups of right-handed hitters against southpaw starters. It’s a strategy that’s given playing time to righties like Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot, Donovan Solano, Kyle Garlick, and Jordan Luplow, often at the expense of younger lefty hitters (who aren't all that young anymore) whom many Twins fans have wished to see have a chance at some left-on-left action, like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. Well, if that fan is you, then you’re in luck. You know, maybe. On Saturday, manager Rocco Baldelli commented on how he intends to use newly signed outfielder Harrison Bader. “He's going to play. We're going to get him a lot of work in left field to reintegrate him out there to left where he hasn't played a ton since college," Baldelli said. "But he has experience out there, so I think we're going to get him out there. At our ballpark, when you're talking about the corners, [that's] a much bigger playing surface than right field. "So I think putting one of the best outfielders in the game in left field as opposed to right makes some sense, and there will be times this year where he's going to play some center field, too. But Buck is going to remain our primary center fielder, and Harrison is going to fill that role.” Now, this may be reading a bit too deeply into a single quote, but there seems to be something notable here. Bader is going to be working on adapting to playing left field. He has not played outside of center field since 2018, so it might take some time for him to adjust to the different angles, and the Twins intend to first work him out in left, in addition to his work in center—a necessary step as he assumes the role of the team’s fourth outfielder. However, the team's choice of left field for him is peculiar. There is validity to preferring a rangy outfielder in left at Target Field, given its dimensions, but focusing on left field limits the Twins’ options a bit. Bader will play in one of the corners against lefties, assuming Buxton is also in the lineup. He’s not a prototypical lefty masher, but he’s held his own enough (121 OPS+) to feel fine if he’s giving Wallner or Larnach the day off against a left-handed starter. However, if Bader isn’t going to play much right field, the Twins don’t have many other options to start over the lefties. There are some questions about which of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Ty France, and Austin Martin will make the team out of camp, but that doesn’t change the calculus. Outside of Bader, Wallner, and Larnach, the only other player on the team who has played an MLB inning in right field is Willi Castro. Castro made 40 appearances in right field in 2022 for the Tigers, four in 2023 for the Twins, and none last season. He’s got twice that number of appearances in center and three times as many in left. And let’s talk about Castro. Despite technically hitting right-handed as a switch-hitter, Castro has been a below-average hitter against lefties and has not had a season in which he’s been at least average from the right side of the plate since 2020. If the pitcher is left-handed, Bader is in left field, and Castro is in right, then the Twins are playing a below-average bat in a position where they’ve clearly been apprehensive about playing him. Beyond Castro, the only other right-handed outfielder on the 40-man roster is Martin, who has played left and center field in the majors and has only one appearance in right at any level (2022 at Double-A). His arm troubles have rendered his throwing somewhere around “poor,” and he’s not a leading candidate for a right-field platoon role, if he even gets a roster spot. Every other outfielder on the 40-man roster (e.g., Emmanuel Rodriguez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.) is left-handed. So what does this mean? I suppose, if Baldelli’s comments are meaningful and informative (which is a big if), then we might see Wallner or Larnach get the nod against lefties. Maybe it’s an every-other-game thing, but someone has to patrol right field. Neither has had much success at all against lefties in their careers. Wallner has a career OPS of .510 (19 OPS+) against lefties, and Larnach isn’t much higher, at .570 (58 OPS+). They both stepped it up a bit last season, with Wallner reaching a .611 OPS (74 OPS+), and Larnach sitting at .579 (63 OPS+). Neither is exciting, and it would be nice to have a real platoon partner for them, but they’re not catastrophically far below Castro’s performance last season (.674 OPS; 89 OPS+). We saw Max Kepler get plenty of opportunities against lefties, and although he never mastered it, he eventually reached the point where he was average-ish (102 OPS+ in 2023 and 2024, across 179 plate appearances). He also had a valuable glove no matter whom he was facing, a luxury that Wallner and Larnach don’t have, but beggars can’t be choosers if you’re pining for them to get more opportunities. Playing one of the two of them in right field also reduces a little roster bloat. Margot and Farmer were primarily rostered to hit lefties last season. Farmer was a bit above average (112 OPS+) and Margot sat right at league average (101 OPS+). Of course, Twins fans would be ecstatic to see those numbers from Wallner or Larnach against lefties, but those numbers aren’t so high that they justify a platoon role, especially when neither Margot nor Farmer were plus defenders. If the Twins do indeed play Bader in left against southpaws and let Wallner and Larnach split time in right, that leaves a little more flexibility on the bench. It also allows the two lefties to acclimate to big-league left-handed pitchers more consistently. Everyone’s happy. This is all yarn being spun from a single quote, though. Don’t get your hopes too high. I’m just Greggory. John Bonnes contributed to this report. View full article
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What Harrison Bader Means to Matt Wallner: Anti-Platooners, Rejoice!
Greggory Masterson posted an article in Twins
It’s no secret the Twins have liked to employ platoons. At times over the past handful of seasons, the Twins have run out full lineups of right-handed hitters against southpaw starters. It’s a strategy that’s given playing time to righties like Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot, Donovan Solano, Kyle Garlick, and Jordan Luplow, often at the expense of younger lefty hitters (who aren't all that young anymore) whom many Twins fans have wished to see have a chance at some left-on-left action, like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. Well, if that fan is you, then you’re in luck. You know, maybe. On Saturday, manager Rocco Baldelli commented on how he intends to use newly signed outfielder Harrison Bader. “He's going to play. We're going to get him a lot of work in left field to reintegrate him out there to left where he hasn't played a ton since college," Baldelli said. "But he has experience out there, so I think we're going to get him out there. At our ballpark, when you're talking about the corners, [that's] a much bigger playing surface than right field. "So I think putting one of the best outfielders in the game in left field as opposed to right makes some sense, and there will be times this year where he's going to play some center field, too. But Buck is going to remain our primary center fielder, and Harrison is going to fill that role.” Now, this may be reading a bit too deeply into a single quote, but there seems to be something notable here. Bader is going to be working on adapting to playing left field. He has not played outside of center field since 2018, so it might take some time for him to adjust to the different angles, and the Twins intend to first work him out in left, in addition to his work in center—a necessary step as he assumes the role of the team’s fourth outfielder. However, the team's choice of left field for him is peculiar. There is validity to preferring a rangy outfielder in left at Target Field, given its dimensions, but focusing on left field limits the Twins’ options a bit. Bader will play in one of the corners against lefties, assuming Buxton is also in the lineup. He’s not a prototypical lefty masher, but he’s held his own enough (121 OPS+) to feel fine if he’s giving Wallner or Larnach the day off against a left-handed starter. However, if Bader isn’t going to play much right field, the Twins don’t have many other options to start over the lefties. There are some questions about which of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Ty France, and Austin Martin will make the team out of camp, but that doesn’t change the calculus. Outside of Bader, Wallner, and Larnach, the only other player on the team who has played an MLB inning in right field is Willi Castro. Castro made 40 appearances in right field in 2022 for the Tigers, four in 2023 for the Twins, and none last season. He’s got twice that number of appearances in center and three times as many in left. And let’s talk about Castro. Despite technically hitting right-handed as a switch-hitter, Castro has been a below-average hitter against lefties and has not had a season in which he’s been at least average from the right side of the plate since 2020. If the pitcher is left-handed, Bader is in left field, and Castro is in right, then the Twins are playing a below-average bat in a position where they’ve clearly been apprehensive about playing him. Beyond Castro, the only other right-handed outfielder on the 40-man roster is Martin, who has played left and center field in the majors and has only one appearance in right at any level (2022 at Double-A). His arm troubles have rendered his throwing somewhere around “poor,” and he’s not a leading candidate for a right-field platoon role, if he even gets a roster spot. Every other outfielder on the 40-man roster (e.g., Emmanuel Rodriguez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.) is left-handed. So what does this mean? I suppose, if Baldelli’s comments are meaningful and informative (which is a big if), then we might see Wallner or Larnach get the nod against lefties. Maybe it’s an every-other-game thing, but someone has to patrol right field. Neither has had much success at all against lefties in their careers. Wallner has a career OPS of .510 (19 OPS+) against lefties, and Larnach isn’t much higher, at .570 (58 OPS+). They both stepped it up a bit last season, with Wallner reaching a .611 OPS (74 OPS+), and Larnach sitting at .579 (63 OPS+). Neither is exciting, and it would be nice to have a real platoon partner for them, but they’re not catastrophically far below Castro’s performance last season (.674 OPS; 89 OPS+). We saw Max Kepler get plenty of opportunities against lefties, and although he never mastered it, he eventually reached the point where he was average-ish (102 OPS+ in 2023 and 2024, across 179 plate appearances). He also had a valuable glove no matter whom he was facing, a luxury that Wallner and Larnach don’t have, but beggars can’t be choosers if you’re pining for them to get more opportunities. Playing one of the two of them in right field also reduces a little roster bloat. Margot and Farmer were primarily rostered to hit lefties last season. Farmer was a bit above average (112 OPS+) and Margot sat right at league average (101 OPS+). Of course, Twins fans would be ecstatic to see those numbers from Wallner or Larnach against lefties, but those numbers aren’t so high that they justify a platoon role, especially when neither Margot nor Farmer were plus defenders. If the Twins do indeed play Bader in left against southpaws and let Wallner and Larnach split time in right, that leaves a little more flexibility on the bench. It also allows the two lefties to acclimate to big-league left-handed pitchers more consistently. Everyone’s happy. This is all yarn being spun from a single quote, though. Don’t get your hopes too high. I’m just Greggory. John Bonnes contributed to this report.- 80 comments
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- harrison bader
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- manuel margot
- joey gallo
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The Twins have a new batch of faces at spring training this year. Who are they? Why are they here? Where did they come from? Here’s your guide. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images Armando Alvarez (3B/1B/LF - RH) Alvarez joined the Twins on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training on January 2nd. He made his MLB debut with Oakland last season but was released in November. He’s primarily played third, first, and second base, but he also saw some time in left field last season. Alvarez figures to be organizational depth at Triple-A St. Paul but could get a cup of coffee under the right (or wrong) circumstances. Harrison Bader (CF - RH) Bader signed the largest free agent contract for the Twins this offseason at $6.25 million guaranteed on February 7th. He’s played for St. Louis, both New York teams, and Cincinnati, winning a Gold Glove in center field in 2021. He figures to be Byron Buxton’s lead backup option and will see some time in the corners, mostly against lefty pitching to spell Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He’s got a mutual option for next year, too, as if that means anything. Diego Cartaya (C - RH) Cartaya was waived by the Dodgers on January 3rd and traded to Minnesota a few days later for Rookie ball pitcher Jose Vasquez. Cartaya was one of the top prospects in baseball as recently as 2022, but his 2023 and 2024 seasons at Double- and Triple-A have been lackluster. He’s on the 40-man roster, but the catcher position is crowded with Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vázquez, and Jair Camargo. If the 23-year-old can get his offense back on track, he can still have a good MLB career and even make the big leagues this season, but his stock is way down. Eiberson Castellano (RHP) Castellano was acquired in the Rule 5 draft from the Phillies organization after winning the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award in 2024. This means that Castellano will need to remain on the active roster or injured list all season (unless the Twins make a trade for his rights with Philadelphia, at which point they can demote him). He’ll get every chance to prove himself this spring, and if he makes the team, he’ll mostly be used as a long reliever. Danny Coulombe (LHP) Coulombe returned to the Twins on a one-year, $3 million deal on February 7th after spending the last two seasons in Baltimore’s bullpen. Baltimore did not exercise his $4 million option for 2025. Previously with the Twins from 2020 to 2022, he was sold to Baltimore before the 2023 season after the Twins decided that he would not make the Opening Day roster. He’s been an effective lefty reliever since 2020. He slots in somewhere around the middle of the Twins’ bullpen hierarchy and is the only lefty projected to make the team. Mike Ford (1B - LH) Ford is probably the most recognizable name on the Twins’ list of non-roster invitees signed this offseason. He was released by the Reds in May of 2024 and had a brief stint in Japan’s NPB before signing a minor league deal with the Twins on January 2nd. The lefty first baseman has played at the big league level for six different teams, having very good partial years in 2019 for the Yankees and 2023 for the Mariners. The first base spot is in flux right now, and Ford could factor in, somehow, but he’s far down the depth chart right now. Ty France (1B - RH) France will sign a non-guaranteed MLB contract, pending physical, for $1 million if he makes the team out of camp. The Twins do need to devote a 40-man roster spot for the time being, but if he gets cut before the season, the team won’t owe him his salary. Hampered by injury over the past year and a half, he has struggled but might still have some juice in his bat, even if he doesn’t play at his 2021 level. The Twins have a few weeks to parse that out. Mickey Gasper (1B/2B/C - SH) Gasper, for a while, was the Twins’ biggest addition this offseason, having been traded for Jovani Morán from Boston on December 24th. He has experience at catcher, first base, and second base, but he will likely play first base if he gets any opportunity. He made a brief debut with the Red Sox in 2024, but he’s 29, so the time is now. He could factor into the first base and DH mix as a high-OBP switch hitter, and the Twins clearly see something in him. Darren McCaughan (RHP) McCaughan is a right-handed pitcher who has primarily started in the minors but has made spot starts and mop-up appearances in the majors for three different teams, most recently Miami. He signed a minor league deal with Minnesota on December 4th, which includes an invite to spring training. He’ll be depth for the Twins in 2025, though likely only if the pitching staff suffers significant injury or Minnesota’s player development unlocks something for the 28-year-old. Anthony Misiewicz (LHP) Misiewicz is in his eighth organization at age 30, signing a minor league contract with an invite to spring training on January 21st. A lefty with 115 ⅔ innings in the big leagues since 2020, Misiewicz (pronounced similar to Mientkiewicz) figures to be lefty middle relief depth behind Danny Coulombe and Kody Funderburk—the only two southpaw hurlers on the Twins’ 40-man roster. Alex Speas (RHP) Speas is a fireballing right-handed reliever who signed a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Only 26, he is already in his sixth organization, but the 2016 second-round pick is one of the more enticing players at Twins camp with a fastball that averages 100 miles per hour, although he’s relied chiefly on a cutter that averages 92 in his four career big league innings. He could be a legit relief option if they figure it out. Huascar Ynoa (RHP) Ynoa signed a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training on December 9th. Twins fans may best remember Ynoa as the 19-year-old traded for Jaime Garcia in 2017. The prodigal son returned after being released in November from Atlanta. He emerged as a solid starter as a 23-year-old in 2021, helping the Braves in their World Series season, but he's missed most of the last three years to injury and may be a reliever from here on, if the Twins even get him healthy enough for that. Let us know which new Twins player interests you the most in our comments below. View full article
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Armando Alvarez (3B/1B/LF - RH) Alvarez joined the Twins on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training on January 2nd. He made his MLB debut with Oakland last season but was released in November. He’s primarily played third, first, and second base, but he also saw some time in left field last season. Alvarez figures to be organizational depth at Triple-A St. Paul but could get a cup of coffee under the right (or wrong) circumstances. Harrison Bader (CF - RH) Bader signed the largest free agent contract for the Twins this offseason at $6.25 million guaranteed on February 7th. He’s played for St. Louis, both New York teams, and Cincinnati, winning a Gold Glove in center field in 2021. He figures to be Byron Buxton’s lead backup option and will see some time in the corners, mostly against lefty pitching to spell Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He’s got a mutual option for next year, too, as if that means anything. Diego Cartaya (C - RH) Cartaya was waived by the Dodgers on January 3rd and traded to Minnesota a few days later for Rookie ball pitcher Jose Vasquez. Cartaya was one of the top prospects in baseball as recently as 2022, but his 2023 and 2024 seasons at Double- and Triple-A have been lackluster. He’s on the 40-man roster, but the catcher position is crowded with Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vázquez, and Jair Camargo. If the 23-year-old can get his offense back on track, he can still have a good MLB career and even make the big leagues this season, but his stock is way down. Eiberson Castellano (RHP) Castellano was acquired in the Rule 5 draft from the Phillies organization after winning the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award in 2024. This means that Castellano will need to remain on the active roster or injured list all season (unless the Twins make a trade for his rights with Philadelphia, at which point they can demote him). He’ll get every chance to prove himself this spring, and if he makes the team, he’ll mostly be used as a long reliever. Danny Coulombe (LHP) Coulombe returned to the Twins on a one-year, $3 million deal on February 7th after spending the last two seasons in Baltimore’s bullpen. Baltimore did not exercise his $4 million option for 2025. Previously with the Twins from 2020 to 2022, he was sold to Baltimore before the 2023 season after the Twins decided that he would not make the Opening Day roster. He’s been an effective lefty reliever since 2020. He slots in somewhere around the middle of the Twins’ bullpen hierarchy and is the only lefty projected to make the team. Mike Ford (1B - LH) Ford is probably the most recognizable name on the Twins’ list of non-roster invitees signed this offseason. He was released by the Reds in May of 2024 and had a brief stint in Japan’s NPB before signing a minor league deal with the Twins on January 2nd. The lefty first baseman has played at the big league level for six different teams, having very good partial years in 2019 for the Yankees and 2023 for the Mariners. The first base spot is in flux right now, and Ford could factor in, somehow, but he’s far down the depth chart right now. Ty France (1B - RH) France will sign a non-guaranteed MLB contract, pending physical, for $1 million if he makes the team out of camp. The Twins do need to devote a 40-man roster spot for the time being, but if he gets cut before the season, the team won’t owe him his salary. Hampered by injury over the past year and a half, he has struggled but might still have some juice in his bat, even if he doesn’t play at his 2021 level. The Twins have a few weeks to parse that out. Mickey Gasper (1B/2B/C - SH) Gasper, for a while, was the Twins’ biggest addition this offseason, having been traded for Jovani Morán from Boston on December 24th. He has experience at catcher, first base, and second base, but he will likely play first base if he gets any opportunity. He made a brief debut with the Red Sox in 2024, but he’s 29, so the time is now. He could factor into the first base and DH mix as a high-OBP switch hitter, and the Twins clearly see something in him. Darren McCaughan (RHP) McCaughan is a right-handed pitcher who has primarily started in the minors but has made spot starts and mop-up appearances in the majors for three different teams, most recently Miami. He signed a minor league deal with Minnesota on December 4th, which includes an invite to spring training. He’ll be depth for the Twins in 2025, though likely only if the pitching staff suffers significant injury or Minnesota’s player development unlocks something for the 28-year-old. Anthony Misiewicz (LHP) Misiewicz is in his eighth organization at age 30, signing a minor league contract with an invite to spring training on January 21st. A lefty with 115 ⅔ innings in the big leagues since 2020, Misiewicz (pronounced similar to Mientkiewicz) figures to be lefty middle relief depth behind Danny Coulombe and Kody Funderburk—the only two southpaw hurlers on the Twins’ 40-man roster. Alex Speas (RHP) Speas is a fireballing right-handed reliever who signed a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Only 26, he is already in his sixth organization, but the 2016 second-round pick is one of the more enticing players at Twins camp with a fastball that averages 100 miles per hour, although he’s relied chiefly on a cutter that averages 92 in his four career big league innings. He could be a legit relief option if they figure it out. Huascar Ynoa (RHP) Ynoa signed a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training on December 9th. Twins fans may best remember Ynoa as the 19-year-old traded for Jaime Garcia in 2017. The prodigal son returned after being released in November from Atlanta. He emerged as a solid starter as a 23-year-old in 2021, helping the Braves in their World Series season, but he's missed most of the last three years to injury and may be a reliever from here on, if the Twins even get him healthy enough for that. Let us know which new Twins player interests you the most in our comments below.
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Episode 30: Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, Who's Next?
Greggory Masterson posted an article in Podcasts
Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg have a timely discussion of the Twins two biggest and latest offseason moves, and they ask who might be next, if anyone. Lou asks who needs to be in the best shape of their lives this spring training and tries to Stump the Schoen, Gregg gripes about the Super Bowl, and the gang unveils a new segment. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily -
The Twins have rounded out their roster; are there more moves coming? Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg have a timely discussion of the Twins two biggest and latest offseason moves, and they ask who might be next, if anyone. Lou asks who needs to be in the best shape of their lives this spring training and tries to Stump the Schoen, Gregg gripes about the Super Bowl, and the gang unveils a new segment. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article
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He also created a successful chain of pharmacies. But most people only remember him for the lightbulb.
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- harrison bader
- manuel margot
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Every offseason, fans have somewhere between opined for and expected the Twins to add a platoon corner outfielder. A platoon left fielder complements their collection of lefty corner outfielders well, and they generally don’t cost much. But there’s another complementary player type that the Twins have preferred: a Byron Buxton backup. Harrison Bader joins a short but growing list of high-end defensive center fielders to back up Buxton, standing beside Manuel Margot and Michael A. Taylor. It’s a sensible approach, given Buxton’s frequent trips to the injured list. If the team expects to have (at minimum) 50 games a year without Buxton roaming center field, there may as well be someone good there in his place. They needed to make a choice. It’s probably the same choice they had to make the previous two offseasons: Backup for Buxton, or corner platoon hitter? It can be difficult to justify having both player types on a four-man big-league bench, unless the team is really confident about their infield (imagine if Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa had much better health histories), or one of those two bench outfielders can play a bit on the dirt (imagine if Willi Castro was a better outfield defender). The Twins have tried to thread the needle, finding a competent (an adjective that may be underselling it) center fielder who can also hit lefties enough to stick him in the corner once or twice a week. The outcomes of those decisions varied wildly in both context and results over the past two seasons. In 2022, the Twins traded for Taylor to fill the role, and he played the entire 2023 season as the team’s starting center fielder, as Buxton was never healthy enough to play the field. Taylor, who was initially pegged for a backup role in center and expected to see time in the corners against lefties, had a solid enough season and logged 388 plate appearances. Margot, the 2024 solution to the same problem, played out entirely differently in his 336 trips to the plate. Buxton returned and played most of the team’s games in center field, which moved Margot to a more prominent role in the corners. Margot’s depleted fielding prowess might have pushed him there even if Buxton had been less healthy. He made a name (and tens of millions of dollars) based on his high-end outfield defense, but he couldn’t sustain it into his late 20s. Neither Taylor nor Margot has been lauded for his offensive prowess; nor has Bader. They're more akin to the types of bats that Cleveland has had patrolling their outfield in the 2020s. However, given that all three are righties, there’s (at minimum) an assumption that they can be useful against left-handed pitchers in addition to the value they provide on defense. Taylor did crush lefties in 2023, hitting about 40% better than the league average against them. Margot held his own against them, about league-average, despite his inability to get a hit as a pinch-hitter. Bader has the worst career track record of the three against lefties, and he’s been inconsistent year-to-year, but he’s still been about 10% better than the league average against southpaws. That’s probably all it takes. I mean, Bader had a down year against lefties last year, and he still hit better against them than Trevor Larnach did. His was very close to Matt Wallner's line, too. There’s a legitimate argument to be made that the best version of this team has Bader taking 400 plate appearances, with a third or more of those coming against lefties. That's the role he played with the Mets last year, but it was the first time in his career that he'd done so. He's often fallen between 350 and 450 plate appearances, but in the past, it was always because he got hurt, not because he was deployed strategically to maximize good matchups. For his career, Bader has faced lefties in just 26.6% of his plate appearances, and he's often been under 20%—the sign of a righty batter not being used for strategic offensive reasons at all, but rather, to keep his glove in the lineup. Ramón Laureano's career share of plate appearances with the platoon advantage is 29.9%. Randal Grichuk's is 32.8%; he even qualified for the batting title (538 PA) with the 2022 Rockies while facing lefties 33.5% of the time. Bader finally got that treatment in 2024, facing lefties 35% of the time, but maybe we shouldn't be shocked that such a radical change of role threw him for a loop—and maybe he'll bounce back with a big 2025 in the same role, as he becomes more familiar with it. There will be time for him, both in the corners and in center. Obviously, Buxton will require days or weeks off (hopefully not months). Bader will get his time in center field. His sprint speed has decreased a bit (as happens to most 30-year-olds), and Sports Info Solutions's Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) saw him as below-average in center last season, but Outs Above Average (OAA) graded him well. He shouldn't hurt them out there, anyway. But he can also play the corners. He hasn’t played anywhere but center field since 2018, but when you’re on Byron Buxton’s team, you’re probably expected to defer to him. And he should. He should play over Wallner and/or Larnach whenever a lefty takes the mound. Throw in Emmanuel Rodriguez, if he’s on the roster, too, I want Bader over him. I’m brave enough to say it. Both Wallner and Larnach are good hitters. I like them. But they’ve struggled against lefties, like most lefties do. They’ll probably get slightly better with time. But that doesn’t mean the Twins should run both of them out against every lefty. Have them alternate in left while Bader plays right. That is totally fine with me. Both big guys need days off. And Bader, even at just 10% above league average, has been a far better hitter against lefties than either of them. But beyond that, let’s revisit the beginning of this discussion. Bader is an asset defensively. Even if he might not be the big thumper you want in that spot, he should be a very good defender in right or left field. And if he’s even a mildly better hitter and a much better fielder than the other two, then play him. It’s not that hard. As sabermetrician and former President Ben Franklin once said, a run saved is a run earned. Bader's going to do that better than the other options. He's a better defender than Austin Martin, even if you grant the assumption that Martin will hit better (and Martin is still in line for a big-league role, right now). You might argue that DaShawn Keirsey Jr. is a better defender, but we haven't seen that yet, and he's left-handed. We have no clue what Rodriguez is ready for right now. Sure, there are some qualifiers. It’s probably not the best idea to go full Manny Magoo and pinch-hit Harrison Bader for Matt Wallner in the fourth inning (Bader was 0-10 last season as a pinch-hitter, by the way). I’m okay scaling that back. Pull him when a righty reliever comes in, too. He should also get some pinch-running opportunities, so maybe save him for later in the game. Also, if he’s no longer the fielder he was, a lot of this goes out the window. Or if he’s now at the decrepit age of 30 and can’t hit at all, change course. But Bader is in line for a real role. The Twins surprised a lot of people by offering him a contract that could surpass $8 million if he hits his incentives. He’s going to get run, and he should. Maybe the real platoon bat is the runs we prevent along the way.
- 51 comments
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- harrison bader
- manuel margot
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This offseason marks the third year in a row that the Twins have pursued a glove-first backup center fielder, eschewing a more prototypical corner platoon bat on their bench. But that doesn’t mean Harrison Bader shouldn’t be used like one. Every offseason, fans have somewhere between opined for and expected the Twins to add a platoon corner outfielder. A platoon left fielder complements their surplus of lefty corner outfielders well, and they generally don’t cost much. But there’s another complementary player type that the Twins have preferred: a Byron Buxton backup. Harrison Bader joins a short but growing list of high-end defensive center fielders to back up Buxton, standing beside Manuel Margot and Michael A. Taylor. It’s a sensible approach, given Buxton’s frequent trips to the injured list; if the team expects to have at minimum 50 games a year without Buxton roaming center field, there may as well be someone good there in his place. They needed to make a choice. It’s probably the same choice they had to make the previous two seasons. Backup for Buxton, or corner platoon hitter? It can be difficult to justify having both player types on a big league bench unless the team is really confident about their infield, or one of those two bench outfielders can play a bit on the dirt. So the Twins have tried to thread the needle, finding a competent (an adjective that may be underselling it) center fielder who can also hit lefties enough to stick him in the corner once or twice a week. The outcomes of those decisions varied wildly in both context and results over the past two seasons. In 2022, the Twins traded for Taylor to fill the role, and he played the entire season as the team’s starting center fielder as Buxton was never healthy enough to play the field. Taylor, who was initially pegged for a backup role in center and expected to see time in the corners against lefties, had a solid enough season and logged 388 plate appearances. Margot, the 2023 solution to the same problem, played out entirely differently in his 336. Buxton returned and played most of the team’s games in center field, which moved Margot to a more prominent role in the corners. Margot’s depleted fielding prowess did as well. Margot made a name (and tens of millions of dollars) based on his high-end outfield defense, but he couldn’t sustain it into his late 20s. Neither has been lauded for his offensive prowess, nor has Bader. They're more akin to the types of bats that Cleveland has had patrolling their outfields out in the 2020s. However, given that all three are righties, there’s, at minimum, an assumption that they can be useful against left-handed pitchers in addition to the value they provide on defense. Taylor did crush lefties in 2022, hitting about 40% better than the league average against them. Margot held his own against them, about league-average, despite his inability to get a hit as a pinch hitter. Bader has the worst career track record of the three against lefties, and he’s been inconsistent year-to-year, but he’s still been about 10% better than the league average against southpaws. And that’s probably all it takes. I mean, Bader had a down year against lefties last year, and he still hit better against them than Trevor Larnach did and was very close to Matt Wallner's. There’s a legitimate argument to be made that the best version of this team has Bader taking 400 plate appearances. He’s generally been somewhere between 350 and 450 plate appearances a year in his career, so it’s not a role he’s unaccustomed to. It's not unreasonable to have him in the lineup 60% of the time. There will be time for him, both in the corners and in center. Obviously, Buxton will require days or weeks off (hopefully not months). Bader will get his time in center field. His sprint speed has decreased a bit (as happens to most 30-year-olds), and Fielding Bible saw him as average in center last season, but Outs Above Average (OAA) graded him well last season. He’ll at least hopefully be at minimum solid, unless he experiences a Margot-like falloff. But he can also play the corners. He hasn’t played anywhere but center field since 2018, but when you’re on Byron Buxton’s team, you’re probably expected to defer to him. And he should. He should play over Matt Wallner and/or Trevor Larnach. Throw in Emmanuel Rodriguez if he’s on the roster, too, I want Bader over him. I’m brave enough to say it. Both Wallner and Larnach are good hitters. I like them. But they’ve struggled against lefties, like most lefties do. They’ll probably get slightly better with time. But that doesn’t mean the Twins should run both of them out against every lefty. Have them alternate in left while Bader plays right. That is totally fine with me! Both big guys need days off. And Bader, even at just 10% above league average, has been a far better hitter against lefties than either of them. But beyond that, let’s revisit the beginning of this discussion. Bader is an asset defensively. Even if he might not be the big thumper you want in that spot, he should be a very good defender in right or left field. And if he’s a much better hitter and a much better fielder than the other two, then play him. It’s not that hard. As sabermetrician and former President Ben Franklin once said, a run saved is a run earned. And he's going to do that better than the other options. He's a better defender than Austin Martin, even if you are granted the assumption that Martin will hit better (and Martin is still in line for a big league role right now). You might argue that DaShawn Keirsey Jr. is a better defender, but we haven't seen that yet, and he's left-handed. We have no clue what Rodriguez is ready for right now. Sure, there are some qualifiers. It’s probably not the best idea to go full Manny Magoo and pinch-hit Harrison Bader for Matt Wallner in the fourth inning (Bader was 0-10 last season as a pinch hitter, by the way). I’m okay scaling that back. Pull him when a righty reliever comes in, too. He should also get some pinch-running opportunities, so maybe save him for later in the game. Also, if he’s no longer the fielder he was, a lot of this goes out the window. Or if he’s now at the decrepit age of 30 and can’t hit at all, change course. But Bader is in line for a real role. The Twins surprised a lot of people by offering him a contract that could surpass $8 million if he hits his incentives. He’s going to get run, and he should. Maybe the real platoon bat is the runs we prevent along the way. View full article
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- harrison bader
- manuel margot
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The title wasn’t meant to be taken literally. Sorry if that wasn’t clear. Of course there’s room for Coloumbe. This article highlights some of the potential roster implications of his signing, given the current personnel and roster rules. It’s going to necessitate tough decisions, or a series of unfortunate events will make it easy. You’ve correctly brought up concerns like injury and performance that were also mentioned in the writeup.
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The Twins’ Bullpen is Already Full. How Does Danny Coulombe Fit?
Greggory Masterson posted an article in Twins
On Tuesday morning, the Twins made their first major-league signing of the offseason. It only took three months, but by gum, they’ve done it. Danny Coulombe, the prodigal son, has finally returned to Minnesota. But in the numbers game that is a modern bullpen, there is no room at the inn, no seat at the feast, too many figs on the tree... something like that. Too many bulls! Before Coulombe’s signing, there were already questions about the number of arms in the Twins bullpen. Given that he has an MLB deal and a guaranteed contract, his name must be written in pen. But what does that mean for everyone else? Coulombe joins a list of names who cannot be sent down without first being waived—exposed to the other 29 teams for free. Those players will either make the Opening Day roster, start the year on the injured list, or be cut after spring training. That group also includes Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, and Ronny Henriquez. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s four hurlers who cannot be sent down. They make it, or they’re probably cut. There’s also Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano. If the Twins want to retain his services, he has to stay on the big-league roster or injured list all year (and even if he spends time on the IL, he needs to be on the active roster for at least 90 days). So, there’s five. After that, we need to add in Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá, and Louie Varland. Varland probably goes to Triple-A by default at this point, but keeping the five guys locked into a spot would probably also necessitate sending both Topa and Alcalá to St. Paul. If the Twins want to have Topa and Alcalá on the Opening Day roster, the obvious moves would probably be to waive Henriquez and return Castellano to Philadelphia (or arrange a trade for him and then send him down). They could also waive Tonkin, whom they're paying $1 million. But those each kind of seem like a waste of resources. (Besides, it was waiving a recent signee on a cheap deal that lost the Twins Coulombe before!) There are other names—like Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino, Huascar Ynoa, Scott Blewett, Connor Prielipp, and Anthony Misiewicz—who might play a role in the bullpen this season, but we’ve already got our hands full with those top 11. It’s totally possible that the Twins front office—who, mind you, have been watching the same teams we all have been—are prepping for inevitable injury concerns. Stewart missed most of the past two seasons despite dominating when healthy. Topa threw 2 1/3 innings last season. And relievers tend to get dinged up from time to time. It’s not the worst plan in the world to have more MLB arms than you can carry, but they’d seem to be banking on that being the case as soon as the doors open. At least one arm will need to be in the medical tent in order for the organization not to need to part with talent when you have 11 potential bullpen arms. Of course, returning a Rule 5 guy to his original team happens more often than not. There’s reason to be excited about Henriquez, but he’s by no means established and could prove tricky to carry on the active roster for a full season. Even Tonkin has been passed around the league before, and it can happen again. But all of those do require serious thought; none of them can be taken back. Beyond those concerns, or perhaps conversely, having five unoptionable guys in your bullpen can prevent a team from having their best bullpens, because if you dump them, you lose talent. Right now, there’s no semblance of a St. Paul shuttle for their relievers. They have five guys who can’t be sent down and five guys they probably don’t want to send down (especially Durán, Jax, and Sands). The Twins have been criticized in recent years for being a bit too reluctant to part with struggling veterans who can't be optioned. A move like this certainly sets them up for similar practices and similar criticisms. It's just a little crowded right now, and it's not clear how they'll release the pressure. Then there's the 40-man spot, given that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. Dropping Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano would clear a spot there, but the Twins might also try to keep all of their current pitchers. In that case, Michael Helman, Mickey Gasper, Matt Canterino, Jair Camargo, and Diego Cartaya might all be candidates. But if Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano were to eventually be cut for an active roster spot, that would effectively mean that two players were lost to make room for a lefty middle reliever. There's probably an outside chance that this move could be the precursor to a trade, but who knows. They don't pay me enough to soothsay. And also what does this mean for Chris Paddack? We have to ask that question whenever a pitcher moves, right? -
It's getting late fast. Sweet Lou, Condescending Cody, and Ol Gregg are joined by the snake Jamie Cameron to talk prospects. They talk international signings, big dudes who ding dongs, prospects lists. They finish with a blind lineup, and Gregg has some questionable takes on the British. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article
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Episode 29: What do Twins Fans have to Look Forward To?
Greggory Masterson posted an article in Podcasts
Sweet Lou, Condescending Cody, and Ol Gregg are joined by the snake Jamie Cameron to talk prospects. They talk international signings, big dudes who ding dongs, prospects lists. They finish with a blind lineup, and Gregg has some questionable takes on the British. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily -
I’m not good at math, but I know how to count to eight. We’re gonna see some movement, right? Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images On Tuesday morning, the Twins made their first major-league signing of the offseason. It only took three months, but by gum, they’ve done it. Danny Coulombe, the prodigal son, has finally returned to Minnesota. But in the numbers game that is a modern bullpen, there is no room at the inn, no seat at the feast, too many figs on the tree... something like that. Too many bulls! Before Coulombe’s signing, there were already questions about the number of arms in the Twins bullpen. Given that he has an MLB deal and a guaranteed contract, his name must be written in pen. But what does that mean for everyone else? Coulombe joins a list of names who cannot be sent down without first being waived—exposed to the other 29 teams for free. Those players will either make the Opening Day roster, start the year on the injured list, or be cut after spring training. That group also includes Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, and Ronny Henriquez. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s four hurlers who cannot be sent down. They make it, or they’re probably cut. There’s also Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano. If the Twins want to retain his services, he has to stay on the big-league roster or injured list all year (and even if he spends time on the IL, he needs to be on the active roster for at least 90 days). So, there’s five. After that, we need to add in Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá, and Louie Varland. Varland probably goes to Triple-A by default at this point, but keeping the five guys locked into a spot would probably also necessitate sending both Topa and Alcalá to St. Paul. If the Twins want to have Topa and Alcalá on the Opening Day roster, the obvious moves would probably be to waive Henriquez and return Castellano to Philadelphia (or arrange a trade for him and then send him down). They could also waive Tonkin, whom they're paying $1 million. But those each kind of seem like a waste of resources. (Besides, it was waiving a recent signee on a cheap deal that lost the Twins Coulombe before!) There are other names—like Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino, Huascar Ynoa, Scott Blewett, Connor Prielipp, and Anthony Misiewicz—who might play a role in the bullpen this season, but we’ve already got our hands full with those top 11. It’s totally possible that the Twins front office—who, mind you, have been watching the same teams we all have been—are prepping for inevitable injury concerns. Stewart missed most of the past two seasons despite dominating when healthy. Topa threw 2 1/3 innings last season. And relievers tend to get dinged up from time to time. It’s not the worst plan in the world to have more MLB arms than you can carry, but they’d seem to be banking on that being the case as soon as the doors open. At least one arm will need to be in the medical tent in order for the organization not to need to part with talent when you have 11 potential bullpen arms. Of course, returning a Rule 5 guy to his original team happens more often than not. There’s reason to be excited about Henriquez, but he’s by no means established and could prove tricky to carry on the active roster for a full season. Even Tonkin has been passed around the league before, and it can happen again. But all of those do require serious thought; none of them can be taken back. Beyond those concerns, or perhaps conversely, having five unoptionable guys in your bullpen can prevent a team from having their best bullpens, because if you dump them, you lose talent. Right now, there’s no semblance of a St. Paul shuttle for their relievers. They have five guys who can’t be sent down and five guys they probably don’t want to send down (especially Durán, Jax, and Sands). The Twins have been criticized in recent years for being a bit too reluctant to part with struggling veterans who can't be optioned. A move like this certainly sets them up for similar practices and similar criticisms. It's just a little crowded right now, and it's not clear how they'll release the pressure. Then there's the 40-man spot, given that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. Dropping Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano would clear a spot there, but the Twins might also try to keep all of their current pitchers. In that case, Michael Helman, Mickey Gasper, Matt Canterino, Jair Camargo, and Diego Cartaya might all be candidates. But if Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano were to eventually be cut for an active roster spot, that would effectively mean that two players were lost to make room for a lefty middle reliever. There's probably an outside chance that this move could be the precursor to a trade, but who knows. They don't pay me enough to soothsay. And also what does this mean for Chris Paddack? We have to ask that question whenever a pitcher moves, right? View full article
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In the eight offseasons since Derek Falvey took the helm in Minnesota, the Twins have averaged three major-league signings or trades after Feb. 1. All signs point to a similar late charge in 2025, but is it a good strategy? Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-Imagn Images There are a few reasons why waiting until late in the offseason to make moves can be seen as doing smart business. Some big names may fall through the cracks and have to settle for less money after their other (often more spendy) suiters have already run through their budgets. Suddenly, those big names have to decide whether they want to play for less money than expected or not play at all. But even if the names aren’t big, the same idea applies. Say 10 teams started the offseason looking for a back-end starter, and in February, eight of the fifteen free back-end starter agents had already signed. Those last seven players are trying to get jobs with the last two teams. Those two teams now get to grab their favorite at the right price. The same happens with trades. Your veteran might be worth a little more when the free-agent pool gets thin. Conversely, a team desperate to shed salary might be more willing to give you their guy at a bargain. It’s all a push and pull, and being patient can open the door to deals that weren’t possible in December. But there is a downside. If you’ve had the privilege of picking over the last seven back-end starters in free agency, you might need to ask yourself why these seven, specifically, fell to you. Sure, you can pick the best of them, but even at a discount, are they actually a better deal than going out and getting your guy before Christmas? Let’s review the 24 February and March acquisitions that Falvey and Co. have made since 2017. 2017: The Matt Belisle Year (slight success) I almost left this year off because the pattern truly didn’t start until the following offseason. It was Falvey’s first season, and they signed Belisle as a setup-ish pitcher for $2.05 million. He had a solid year, so it was a success, but probably only in spirit. 2018: The Messy Year (failure with one bright spot) This is the year that could have scared a lot of GMs off this strategy. The headliners everyone thinks of when 2018 comes up are Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. Lynn signed a one-year, $12-million deal on Mar. 10. Morrison signed a one-year, $6.5-million contract two weeks earlier, on Feb. 25. Lynn was one of the top pitchers on the market, but because of a historically bad year for free agents, he needed Minnesota’s paltry offer. Morrison was coming off a breakout 2017 campaign, but he still didn’t get the market he expected. Both players were described as disgruntled, and their on-field performance matched those rumors. Lynn had his worst year as a pro before being traded at midseason, and Morrison basically played his way out of baseball in 2018. The strategy did work to some extent, as they signed starting pitcher Anibal Sánchez a week before Morrison on Feb. 17, and he had two very good years in 2018 and 2019—just not for the Twins. Compounding the error of signing Lynn, the Twins cut Sánchez a month after signing him to clear roster space for Lynn. The true bright spot was their trade for Jake Odorizzi. The Twins had been going back and forth with the Rays, negotiating a deal to acquire a starting pitcher for much of the offseason. When the Twins truly had a need arise (an Ervin Santana injury), they pulled the trigger, sending Jermaine Palacios to Tampa Bay in what was largely a salary dump for their trading partners. Odorizzi was a consistent force in the rotation through 2019, and the Feb. 18 trade is one of the crown jewels of Falvey’s tenure. Sometimes, being patient and getting the right deal for a guy you want does pay off. Beyond that, still having resources to add when needs arise late in the offseason (both prospect and monetary capital) is beneficial. Also, they traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave on Mar. 16, another opportunistic failure—the Yankees needed to clear 40-man roster space and Cave was on the chopping block. We all know how this one turned out. 2019: The Marwin González Year (success) González was still sitting around after spring training had started. On Feb. 22, he signed a two-year, $21-million deal. There were question marks around Miguel Sanó following a miserable year and an offseason injury that would keep him out of the lineup for the season's first two months. In reflecting on the disastrous 2018 season, Falvey and Levine had specifically mentioned feeling they were overbalanced with players on one-year deals, particularly because Lynn and Morrison came in somewhat unhappy. Between those two and Brian Dozier, the front office felt they had allowed a "mercenary" mentality to overtake the clubhouse. Many assumed that would be the end of the Twins backstopping the market for high-profile free agents, but instead, they plunged right back into the same waters one year later. The difference was that they gave their quarry a multi-year deal this time. González made some money, likely less than he’d hoped, but filled a role. This one probably wasn’t as intentional as others on the list, because it was spurred by a late need arising, but they probably couldn’t have gotten González for that price any earlier than they did. It's somewhat similar to the Odorizzi trade. 2020: The Maeda-Betts-Graterol Debacle (slight success) A team preferring opportunism doesn’t preclude them from getting a little fixated on their guy. Initially, a deal that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to Los Angeles, Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, and Brusdar Graterol and Dodger prospects to Boston broke down over the Red Sox's concerns about Graterol. The three teams then arranged their moves separately. Instead of Boston, Graterol was sent to Los Angeles on Feb. 9, along with Luke Raley and a competitive balance pick, for Maeda, Jair Camargo and $10 million. Maeda had a solid run in Minnesota, including a Cy Young runner-up abbreviated season in 2020, but he also lost significant time to injury. Graterol has been a very good reliever when healthy, but you generally take a good starter over a great reliever. 2021: The Freakin’ Offseason (failure with one bright spot) Sometimes, even the most low-risk purchases can be devastating. On Feb. 3 and 15, the Twins signed Alex Colomé and Matt Shoemaker, respectively, for a combined $8.5 million. Similar to Lynn and Morrison, it’s not entirely unfounded to point at these two as a significant reason that the Twins had the season that they did. At times, picking over the leftovers only returns leftovers. Nelson Cruz also came back for his third year in Minnesota, signing Feb. 3. He put together a good first half, well worth the $13 million investment, and he was the centerpiece in the trade that brought Joe Ryan to Minnesota at the trade deadline. In this case, gambling and waiting worked, as Cruz had limited suiters despite a terrific 2019 and 2020. Also, they traded LaMonte Wade Jr. for Shaun Anderson on Feb. 5. This might have been a case of waiting too long to decide on a trade that the team knew it “needed” to make (after choosing Cave over Wade as their fourth outfielder). However, I'm not sure if it counts. 2022: The Lockout Year (definitely doesn’t count) It’d be a little disingenuous to include these moves in their “wait it out” plans, because everyone was waiting it out. The league had a months-long freeze on any transactions over a labor dispute, so every team made a flurry of moves in March. In order, the Twins traded Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez; traded Chase Petty for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero; traded Kiner-Falefa, Josh Donaldson, and Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela; signed Carlos Correa; signed Joe Smith; and signed Chris Archer in a span of 16 days in March. If we remove the seven trades and signings this year, the team has still averaged 2.4 February-or-later moves per offseason, or 2.7 if you also throw out 2017. I will isolate one trade that shows just how long Falvey is willing to wait for a “good deal.” On Opening Day, Apr. 7, he completed a trade, sending Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker, and $6 million to San Diego for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán. By that point, Falvey had been shopping Rogers for something close to eight months, and he finally got a deal he saw as good on the first day of the season. We don’t need to get into all the details, but this one is mixed, to say the least, with ardent critics and defenders on both sides. I'm sure some will show up in these very comments. 2023: The Donnie Barrels Year (success) Honestly, Donovan Solano is probably the best bang-for-your-buck player on this 31-player list. At just $2 million, the Feb. 22 signing was brought in as infield depth and a bench righty. He ended up with the third-most plate appearances on the team, was one of the most consistent bats in the lineup for the full year, and really excelled as a pinch-hitter. If the Twins could hit on another one like this in 2025, it’d go a long way. 2024: Ballin’ on a Budget (failure, with one success) Days after dumping Jorge Polanco’s contract to Seattle (which happened in late January, so it didn’t make the cut here), the Twins reallocated his money to Carlos Santana on Feb. 3 ($5.25 million) and Jay Jackson on Feb. 4 ($1.5 million). Santana worked, effectively a step up from Solano with a slightly greater payday. Jackson didn’t. But that’s what happens when you’re constrained to filling holes with the $6 million cleared from your starting second baseman’s trade. They essentially did a salary swap with Miami, flipping Nick Gordon for Steven Okert, a trade that had no winners. Then they spent the last $4 million earmarked for outfield help on a trade for Manuel Margot, prospect Rayne Doncon, and cash, sending Noah Miller to Los Angeles. I sure hope Doncon pans out. This is the new way of the MLB offseason. The Twins aren't alone in taking this approach; they just stretch the strategy toward an extreme other teams are more reluctant to reach. The results are often decent; that's why waiting things out has become such a popular paradigm. The crime of which they're guilty isn't being dumb; it's being uninspiring and underwhelming. Top free agents will always sign early, and blockbuster trades nearly always happen in November and December. Confining themselves to February means voluntarily losing the winter in an effort to win the summer and fall. Again, all 30 teams are increasingly comfortable with that. The Falvey front office is just more patient (and more willing to underwhelm you, if it comes to that) than most. View full article
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- kenta maeda
- carlos santana
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There are a few reasons why waiting until late in the offseason to make moves can be seen as doing smart business. Some big names may fall through the cracks and have to settle for less money after their other (often more spendy) suiters have already run through their budgets. Suddenly, those big names have to decide whether they want to play for less money than expected or not play at all. But even if the names aren’t big, the same idea applies. Say 10 teams started the offseason looking for a back-end starter, and in February, eight of the fifteen free back-end starter agents had already signed. Those last seven players are trying to get jobs with the last two teams. Those two teams now get to grab their favorite at the right price. The same happens with trades. Your veteran might be worth a little more when the free-agent pool gets thin. Conversely, a team desperate to shed salary might be more willing to give you their guy at a bargain. It’s all a push and pull, and being patient can open the door to deals that weren’t possible in December. But there is a downside. If you’ve had the privilege of picking over the last seven back-end starters in free agency, you might need to ask yourself why these seven, specifically, fell to you. Sure, you can pick the best of them, but even at a discount, are they actually a better deal than going out and getting your guy before Christmas? Let’s review the 24 February and March acquisitions that Falvey and Co. have made since 2017. 2017: The Matt Belisle Year (slight success) I almost left this year off because the pattern truly didn’t start until the following offseason. It was Falvey’s first season, and they signed Belisle as a setup-ish pitcher for $2.05 million. He had a solid year, so it was a success, but probably only in spirit. 2018: The Messy Year (failure with one bright spot) This is the year that could have scared a lot of GMs off this strategy. The headliners everyone thinks of when 2018 comes up are Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. Lynn signed a one-year, $12-million deal on Mar. 10. Morrison signed a one-year, $6.5-million contract two weeks earlier, on Feb. 25. Lynn was one of the top pitchers on the market, but because of a historically bad year for free agents, he needed Minnesota’s paltry offer. Morrison was coming off a breakout 2017 campaign, but he still didn’t get the market he expected. Both players were described as disgruntled, and their on-field performance matched those rumors. Lynn had his worst year as a pro before being traded at midseason, and Morrison basically played his way out of baseball in 2018. The strategy did work to some extent, as they signed starting pitcher Anibal Sánchez a week before Morrison on Feb. 17, and he had two very good years in 2018 and 2019—just not for the Twins. Compounding the error of signing Lynn, the Twins cut Sánchez a month after signing him to clear roster space for Lynn. The true bright spot was their trade for Jake Odorizzi. The Twins had been going back and forth with the Rays, negotiating a deal to acquire a starting pitcher for much of the offseason. When the Twins truly had a need arise (an Ervin Santana injury), they pulled the trigger, sending Jermaine Palacios to Tampa Bay in what was largely a salary dump for their trading partners. Odorizzi was a consistent force in the rotation through 2019, and the Feb. 18 trade is one of the crown jewels of Falvey’s tenure. Sometimes, being patient and getting the right deal for a guy you want does pay off. Beyond that, still having resources to add when needs arise late in the offseason (both prospect and monetary capital) is beneficial. Also, they traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave on Mar. 16, another opportunistic failure—the Yankees needed to clear 40-man roster space and Cave was on the chopping block. We all know how this one turned out. 2019: The Marwin González Year (success) González was still sitting around after spring training had started. On Feb. 22, he signed a two-year, $21-million deal. There were question marks around Miguel Sanó following a miserable year and an offseason injury that would keep him out of the lineup for the season's first two months. In reflecting on the disastrous 2018 season, Falvey and Levine had specifically mentioned feeling they were overbalanced with players on one-year deals, particularly because Lynn and Morrison came in somewhat unhappy. Between those two and Brian Dozier, the front office felt they had allowed a "mercenary" mentality to overtake the clubhouse. Many assumed that would be the end of the Twins backstopping the market for high-profile free agents, but instead, they plunged right back into the same waters one year later. The difference was that they gave their quarry a multi-year deal this time. González made some money, likely less than he’d hoped, but filled a role. This one probably wasn’t as intentional as others on the list, because it was spurred by a late need arising, but they probably couldn’t have gotten González for that price any earlier than they did. It's somewhat similar to the Odorizzi trade. 2020: The Maeda-Betts-Graterol Debacle (slight success) A team preferring opportunism doesn’t preclude them from getting a little fixated on their guy. Initially, a deal that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to Los Angeles, Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, and Brusdar Graterol and Dodger prospects to Boston broke down over the Red Sox's concerns about Graterol. The three teams then arranged their moves separately. Instead of Boston, Graterol was sent to Los Angeles on Feb. 9, along with Luke Raley and a competitive balance pick, for Maeda, Jair Camargo and $10 million. Maeda had a solid run in Minnesota, including a Cy Young runner-up abbreviated season in 2020, but he also lost significant time to injury. Graterol has been a very good reliever when healthy, but you generally take a good starter over a great reliever. 2021: The Freakin’ Offseason (failure with one bright spot) Sometimes, even the most low-risk purchases can be devastating. On Feb. 3 and 15, the Twins signed Alex Colomé and Matt Shoemaker, respectively, for a combined $8.5 million. Similar to Lynn and Morrison, it’s not entirely unfounded to point at these two as a significant reason that the Twins had the season that they did. At times, picking over the leftovers only returns leftovers. Nelson Cruz also came back for his third year in Minnesota, signing Feb. 3. He put together a good first half, well worth the $13 million investment, and he was the centerpiece in the trade that brought Joe Ryan to Minnesota at the trade deadline. In this case, gambling and waiting worked, as Cruz had limited suiters despite a terrific 2019 and 2020. Also, they traded LaMonte Wade Jr. for Shaun Anderson on Feb. 5. This might have been a case of waiting too long to decide on a trade that the team knew it “needed” to make (after choosing Cave over Wade as their fourth outfielder). However, I'm not sure if it counts. 2022: The Lockout Year (definitely doesn’t count) It’d be a little disingenuous to include these moves in their “wait it out” plans, because everyone was waiting it out. The league had a months-long freeze on any transactions over a labor dispute, so every team made a flurry of moves in March. In order, the Twins traded Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez; traded Chase Petty for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero; traded Kiner-Falefa, Josh Donaldson, and Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela; signed Carlos Correa; signed Joe Smith; and signed Chris Archer in a span of 16 days in March. If we remove the seven trades and signings this year, the team has still averaged 2.4 February-or-later moves per offseason, or 2.7 if you also throw out 2017. I will isolate one trade that shows just how long Falvey is willing to wait for a “good deal.” On Opening Day, Apr. 7, he completed a trade, sending Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker, and $6 million to San Diego for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán. By that point, Falvey had been shopping Rogers for something close to eight months, and he finally got a deal he saw as good on the first day of the season. We don’t need to get into all the details, but this one is mixed, to say the least, with ardent critics and defenders on both sides. I'm sure some will show up in these very comments. 2023: The Donnie Barrels Year (success) Honestly, Donovan Solano is probably the best bang-for-your-buck player on this 31-player list. At just $2 million, the Feb. 22 signing was brought in as infield depth and a bench righty. He ended up with the third-most plate appearances on the team, was one of the most consistent bats in the lineup for the full year, and really excelled as a pinch-hitter. If the Twins could hit on another one like this in 2025, it’d go a long way. 2024: Ballin’ on a Budget (failure, with one success) Days after dumping Jorge Polanco’s contract to Seattle (which happened in late January, so it didn’t make the cut here), the Twins reallocated his money to Carlos Santana on Feb. 3 ($5.25 million) and Jay Jackson on Feb. 4 ($1.5 million). Santana worked, effectively a step up from Solano with a slightly greater payday. Jackson didn’t. But that’s what happens when you’re constrained to filling holes with the $6 million cleared from your starting second baseman’s trade. They essentially did a salary swap with Miami, flipping Nick Gordon for Steven Okert, a trade that had no winners. Then they spent the last $4 million earmarked for outfield help on a trade for Manuel Margot, prospect Rayne Doncon, and cash, sending Noah Miller to Los Angeles. I sure hope Doncon pans out. This is the new way of the MLB offseason. The Twins aren't alone in taking this approach; they just stretch the strategy toward an extreme other teams are more reluctant to reach. The results are often decent; that's why waiting things out has become such a popular paradigm. The crime of which they're guilty isn't being dumb; it's being uninspiring and underwhelming. Top free agents will always sign early, and blockbuster trades nearly always happen in November and December. Confining themselves to February means voluntarily losing the winter in an effort to win the summer and fall. Again, all 30 teams are increasingly comfortable with that. The Falvey front office is just more patient (and more willing to underwhelm you, if it comes to that) than most.
- 65 comments
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- kenta maeda
- carlos santana
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He did; the “for some reason” pointed more toward choosing 13 rather than dropping 24
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- manuel margot
- joey gallo
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Yeah, we’re in that part of the offseason. But hear me out—there’s a notable pattern forming. Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images The number 13 is widely regarded as unlucky, at least in the United States. The various reasons for that reputation lie beyond the scope of this write-up. All that matters is that people hold it to be unlucky. Some hotels don’t have a 13th floor, skipping from 12 to 14. The Indianapolis 500 and Formula One both banned the number. The Motion Picture Association of America recommends not watching the 2009 comedy Year One until 13 years of age. Baseball, never an institution to buck superstition, also believes in the unluckiness of the number 13—or at least, they used to. There was a pretty consistent number scheme in the earliest days of players donning numbers on their uniforms. Numbers one through eight went to the starting lineup with one being the leadoff hitter and eight going to the eight hitter. Nine was for the backup catcher, and 10 through 14 went to pitchers. Except 13. They sometimes skipped 13. In the 95 years that the Twins and Senators have worn numbered jerseys, there have only been 24 seasons in which a player has worn 13. Prior to the 1990s, the number was worn sparingly. John Roseboro was an All-Star in 1969 wearing it. Milo Candini and Sid Hudson shared the number in 1947. Dick Woodson rocked it from 1972 through 1974. A few others wore it, but there’s not much to write about. In 1991, though, Mike Pagliarulo wore the number as a member of the Twins’ most recent World Series team. He was a solid piece at third base who flourished (if you’re a certain type of fan, you might want to close your eyes and randomly scroll down a little) in a platoon role. He wore the number until his trade to Baltimore in August 1993. Basically every player to wear 13 from Pags to today has become something of a legend in the Twin Cities—but often for the wrong reasons. Todd Walker (1996) Walker donned number 13 for 25 games as a rookie. As the eighth overall pick two years prior and the seventh overall prospect in baseball per Baseball America, his debut was highly anticipated. Walker had a solid career, but failed to meet his lofty expectations. He famously did not get along with Tom Kelly, who allegedly was his ticket out of town. That’s a bit of legend in itself. Walker had worn 12 in college and probably wanted that, but took 13 in deference to veteran bench piece Chip Hale, before taking over his preferred number in 1997. The lessons here: never piss off the manager, and never defer to Chip Hale. Jason Kubel (2014) It was nearly 20 years until someone wore 13 again. Kubel, like Walker, was a highly-touted prospect before obliterating his knee in the Arizona Fall League in 2004. For a few years, he carved out a nice niche as Minnesota’s designated hitter and occasional outfielder. He spent a couple of years in Arizona and Cleveland before returning to Minnesota in 2014, as a 32-year-old coming off of a tough 2013. When he returned to the Twins, his 16 jersey had been given to Josh Willingham, so Kubel took 13. He lasted 45 games, hitting an empty .224 and playing bad left-field defense, totaling -1.3 bWAR before his June release. He never played in MLB again. Never defer to Josh Willingham, either. Ehire Adrianza (2019-2020) Adrianza probably got off the best of anyone on this list. The utility infielder, like Kubel, also wore 16 for the Twins before surrendering it to Jonathan Schoop in 2019. Not much ill came of Adrianza during his time wearing 16. In fact, he got better—just not actually good. He was just a standard utility infielder who had a nice 2019 and left the team after 2020. But he did develop something of a cult following. He was your mother’s favorite Twin, etc. You know, standard middle infield stuff. Glad he’s back in the organization. Good for him. Travis Blankenhorn (2021) Bad for him. Just reading this name probably sends shivers down your spine. If you’ve repressed what happened on Apr. 21, 2021, let me remind you: the Twins' season died. Blankenhorn got his first action of the year pinch-running for Josh Donaldson as the Manfred Man in the top of the 10th inning at Oakland, in an episode of overmanaging by Rocco Baldelli. Byron Buxton homered, driving in Blankenhorn from second base, which required a light jog that even Donaldson would have been able to do just fine. In the bottom of the inning, Blankenhorn stayed in the game at second base and Luis Arraez moved to third. Alex Colomé loaded the bases on a couple of two-out walks, and back-to-back errors by Blankenhorn and Arraez allowed the A’s to win it in a walkoff. Blankenhorn never got into another game as a Twin. His name sounds like a confused dad trying to self-censor while cursing out rush-hour traffic, and his brief stint with the team left us all with that same tangle of emotions and ejaculations. Trevor Larnach (2022) For some reason, Larnach decided to switch from number 24 to 13 ahead of the 2022 season. Apparently, one year was enough, because he switched to 9 the following season. He battled through groin and core injuries all year, and wasn’t the best at communicating about it. He was also alleged to be a bad tipper. Joey Gallo (2023) If Adrianza was your mother’s favorite player, Gallo was your father's, uncle's, and grandfather’s least favorite player. Gallo signed quickly after the Twins (and the rest of the league) believed that they had lost out on bringing Carlos Correa back. Some consolation prize. The club was hoping that the three-true-outcome slugger would have a bounce-back year after struggling under the New York City lights, but those hopes went for naught. Strikeout after strikeout after strikeout. After strikeout. Gallo was cursed and a fan favorite, if only because the absurdity of his game did nothing, if not make you feel things. Good things, bad things, they’re all things. Manuel Margot (2024) It’s hard to find a more frustrating sequel to Gallo, but Margot might have done it. Once an elite defender in center field and a competent bat against lefties, Margot completely lost his ability even to play left field reliably and set the all-time record for pinch-hitting at-bats in a season without a single hit. I mean, my gosh, what more do you want? The Twins have had a number 13 every year since 2019. I’m hoping and praying they assign it again this year, because I can’t wait to see what they do to top Margot. View full article
- 15 replies
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- manuel margot
- joey gallo
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The number 13 is widely regarded as unlucky, at least in the United States. The various reasons for that reputation lie beyond the scope of this write-up. All that matters is that people hold it to be unlucky. Some hotels don’t have a 13th floor, skipping from 12 to 14. The Indianapolis 500 and Formula One both banned the number. The Motion Picture Association of America recommends not watching the 2009 comedy Year One until 13 years of age. Baseball, never an institution to buck superstition, also believes in the unluckiness of the number 13—or at least, they used to. There was a pretty consistent number scheme in the earliest days of players donning numbers on their uniforms. Numbers one through eight went to the starting lineup with one being the leadoff hitter and eight going to the eight hitter. Nine was for the backup catcher, and 10 through 14 went to pitchers. Except 13. They sometimes skipped 13. In the 95 years that the Twins and Senators have worn numbered jerseys, there have only been 24 seasons in which a player has worn 13. Prior to the 1990s, the number was worn sparingly. John Roseboro was an All-Star in 1969 wearing it. Milo Candini and Sid Hudson shared the number in 1947. Dick Woodson rocked it from 1972 through 1974. A few others wore it, but there’s not much to write about. In 1991, though, Mike Pagliarulo wore the number as a member of the Twins’ most recent World Series team. He was a solid piece at third base who flourished (if you’re a certain type of fan, you might want to close your eyes and randomly scroll down a little) in a platoon role. He wore the number until his trade to Baltimore in August 1993. Basically every player to wear 13 from Pags to today has become something of a legend in the Twin Cities—but often for the wrong reasons. Todd Walker (1996) Walker donned number 13 for 25 games as a rookie. As the eighth overall pick two years prior and the seventh overall prospect in baseball per Baseball America, his debut was highly anticipated. Walker had a solid career, but failed to meet his lofty expectations. He famously did not get along with Tom Kelly, who allegedly was his ticket out of town. That’s a bit of legend in itself. Walker had worn 12 in college and probably wanted that, but took 13 in deference to veteran bench piece Chip Hale, before taking over his preferred number in 1997. The lessons here: never piss off the manager, and never defer to Chip Hale. Jason Kubel (2014) It was nearly 20 years until someone wore 13 again. Kubel, like Walker, was a highly-touted prospect before obliterating his knee in the Arizona Fall League in 2004. For a few years, he carved out a nice niche as Minnesota’s designated hitter and occasional outfielder. He spent a couple of years in Arizona and Cleveland before returning to Minnesota in 2014, as a 32-year-old coming off of a tough 2013. When he returned to the Twins, his 16 jersey had been given to Josh Willingham, so Kubel took 13. He lasted 45 games, hitting an empty .224 and playing bad left-field defense, totaling -1.3 bWAR before his June release. He never played in MLB again. Never defer to Josh Willingham, either. Ehire Adrianza (2019-2020) Adrianza probably got off the best of anyone on this list. The utility infielder, like Kubel, also wore 16 for the Twins before surrendering it to Jonathan Schoop in 2019. Not much ill came of Adrianza during his time wearing 16. In fact, he got better—just not actually good. He was just a standard utility infielder who had a nice 2019 and left the team after 2020. But he did develop something of a cult following. He was your mother’s favorite Twin, etc. You know, standard middle infield stuff. Glad he’s back in the organization. Good for him. Travis Blankenhorn (2021) Bad for him. Just reading this name probably sends shivers down your spine. If you’ve repressed what happened on Apr. 21, 2021, let me remind you: the Twins' season died. Blankenhorn got his first action of the year pinch-running for Josh Donaldson as the Manfred Man in the top of the 10th inning at Oakland, in an episode of overmanaging by Rocco Baldelli. Byron Buxton homered, driving in Blankenhorn from second base, which required a light jog that even Donaldson would have been able to do just fine. In the bottom of the inning, Blankenhorn stayed in the game at second base and Luis Arraez moved to third. Alex Colomé loaded the bases on a couple of two-out walks, and back-to-back errors by Blankenhorn and Arraez allowed the A’s to win it in a walkoff. Blankenhorn never got into another game as a Twin. His name sounds like a confused dad trying to self-censor while cursing out rush-hour traffic, and his brief stint with the team left us all with that same tangle of emotions and ejaculations. Trevor Larnach (2022) For some reason, Larnach decided to switch from number 24 to 13 ahead of the 2022 season. Apparently, one year was enough, because he switched to 9 the following season. He battled through groin and core injuries all year, and wasn’t the best at communicating about it. He was also alleged to be a bad tipper. Joey Gallo (2023) If Adrianza was your mother’s favorite player, Gallo was your father's, uncle's, and grandfather’s least favorite player. Gallo signed quickly after the Twins (and the rest of the league) believed that they had lost out on bringing Carlos Correa back. Some consolation prize. The club was hoping that the three-true-outcome slugger would have a bounce-back year after struggling under the New York City lights, but those hopes went for naught. Strikeout after strikeout after strikeout. After strikeout. Gallo was cursed and a fan favorite, if only because the absurdity of his game did nothing, if not make you feel things. Good things, bad things, they’re all things. Manuel Margot (2024) It’s hard to find a more frustrating sequel to Gallo, but Margot might have done it. Once an elite defender in center field and a competent bat against lefties, Margot completely lost his ability even to play left field reliably and set the all-time record for pinch-hitting at-bats in a season without a single hit. I mean, my gosh, what more do you want? The Twins have had a number 13 every year since 2019. I’m hoping and praying they assign it again this year, because I can’t wait to see what they do to top Margot.
- 15 comments
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- manuel margot
- joey gallo
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I feel like that Correa kid will get most of his time at shortstop. He's got a real chance to make a name for himself this year, and I like the cut of his jib.
- 72 replies
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- brooks lee
- edouard julien
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