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Everything posted by Greggory Masterson
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Here comes Opening Day! Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg are joined by Matthew Trueblood to preview the 2025 season in a way only they know how: setting up a season-long bingo card. Will Michael Tonkin be DFAed and then claimed later in the season? Will Pablo Lopez have a wholesome moment? Will Matt Wallner damage a wall? And who is the most random Twin to make an Opening Day roster that you remember? Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article
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Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg are joined by Matthew Trueblood to preview the 2025 season in a way only they know how: setting up a season-long bingo card. Will Michael Tonkin be DFAed and then claimed later in the season? Will Pablo Lopez have a wholesome moment? Will Matt Wallner damage a wall? And who is the most random Twin to make an Opening Day roster that you remember? Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily
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We’ve got some awards to hand out, and they’re not for meaningless things like “best spring training hitter" or anything. No, we’re locking in and giving out trophies for the most cliché happenings. Every year, the same storylines tend to pop up, and fans consume them like Kramarczuk's sausages. We had a great showing this year. Every predicted cliché had at least one qualifier, and many award winners shone magnificently, going above and beyond what the academy was looking for. Let’s get started! Miguel Sanó Memorial "Best Shape of His Life" Award: Jhoan Durán We start our awards with a classic. Each year, someone in every camp shows up in what they or someone else can describe as “the best shape of his life.” Sometimes, several people show up in such a state. Some people show up in such a state several times (hence the award being named after Boquetón himself). Like last year, there was no impressive, runaway winner. In 2024, Christian Vázquez showed up to camp eight pounds lighter than he had been the previous year, and I determined that wasn’t enough weight (my rule of thumb: if I’ve lost that much weight in 24 hours before, it’s not notable). However, this year, Jhoan Durán showed up 12 pounds lighter (surpassing my 11-pound threshold), making him deserving of the Best Shape of His Life Award. Hopefully, his weight stays down, and his velocity stays up. Previous winners: Jhoan Durán (2024), José Miranda (2023) "Newest Pitch" Award: Jorge Alcalá It was a relatively quiet year on the new pitch front. Every year, several pitchers come in trying to tinker with something. Sometimes it’s something they start working on in camp; sometimes it’s a pitch they designed at Driveline; and sometimes they tried something once at the behest of a teammate and it becomes a real thing. Does it carry over to the regular season? Not often. But it’s always interesting to see if it can. The most prominent new pitch discussed this spring was David Festa’s new sinker—an option for him to mix in against righties. However, this is the newest pitch award, and one Twins pitcher has had a new offering flying under the radar. It looks like Jorge Alcalá is now throwing a curveball, a pitch he hasn’t thrown to this point in his career. It showed up at Pitch Profiler at the beginning of March, and Brooks Baseball claims he’s thrown it about two dozen times. Who knows if it’ll carry over into the season, but its 12-6 shape might help him finally neutralize lefties—something he’s struggled to do to this point in his career. This unseats Joe Ryan, who had won in back-to-back seasons. Threepeats are unheard of when it comes to the Golden Grapefruits, and Ryan wasn't daring enough to come in this year with some wacky new thing to change that status quo. Previous winners: Joe Ryan (2024, 2023), Griffin Jax (2023) "Most Revamped Swing" Award: Ty France It’s a little more challenging to pick out which guys have made swing overhauls, but someone usually tells you about it. Ty France was that guy this year. Actually, France wasn’t the guy who first brought it up. Twins legend Denny Hocking tweeted out that he had worked with France over the offseason mere hours before the Twins announced his signing. Allegedly, France spent the offseason getting back to basics, simplifying his swing. It’s a pretty normal reaction after struggling mightily last season, and early returns have been tremendous. If we gave out a spring training MVP, it'd probably be his for the taking. Previous winners: Brooks Lee (2024), Max Kepler (2023) "Weirdest Injury" Award: Mickey Gasper Although not a cliché, it seems that every year there is an inexplicable injury that can only be chalked up to spring training. Recall 2021, when Byron Buxton missed a few weeks due to a root canal after chipping his tooth while eating steak. I thought I’d be giving the award to Chris Paddack. If I had a nickel for every time Paddack got hit with a comebacker in the third inning of the Twins' March 8 game, I’d have 10 cents—which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice. He took two comebackers in a single inning, the second hitting him in the head and giving him a bruise. However, on Sunday, newly minted cult hero Mickey Gasper managed to get stepped on by top prospect Brandon Winokur, requiring six stitches in his heel. Gasper was playing second base, and Winokur was playing shortstop, and they collided on a grounder up the middle. Hindsight is 20/20 (though peripheral vision doesn't appear to be, for these two), but it’s worth asking if putting a guy who shouldn’t be playing much second base next to a guy who shouldn’t be playing much shortstop in major-league camp was such a great idea. Fortunately, Gasper is still making the Opening Day roster, even if that requires a Curt Schilling bloody sock. Previous winners: Pete Maki (ruptured bicep doing pullups, 2024), Jordan Balazovic (broken jaw, bar fight, 2023) "Honey, Grab My Program" Award: Jeferson Morales Spring training, especially early in the year and late in games, features a rotating cast of characters more extensive than The Simpsons'. Non-roster invitees, prospects, and career minor-leaguers are each given their turns in the Florida sun. Every year, a few prospects get their number called more than others, consistently sending fans scrambling to look up who No. 80 is. Only players who have never appeared in MLB and are not on the 40-man roster qualify for this award. Jeferson Morales ran away with it this year, nearly leading the whole club in games played (18, one short of MLB vet Armando Alvarez’s 19), and earning 34 at-bats, ranking 18th in the organization and eight ahead of the next qualified candidate, Luke Keaschall (26 PA). Morales made the most of his opportunity, with an OPS over 1.000, and given his flexibility, he’s a sleeper pick to get some big-league time this year if there are injuries. Of note, though, the previous two winners of this award left the Twins organization the following season. Previous winners: Chris Williams (2024), Andrew Bechtold (2023) "First Cliché Statement" Award: Rocco Baldelli We have an upset. I really thought Carlos Correa would win this award until his contract was up, but Rocco Baldelli swooped in and stole it from under him. Likely due in part to the collapse, Rocco has a bit of a fire lit under him (and maybe his seat) and became a bit more of a hardo this spring. Workouts have been more structured, for instance. “I think we're going to prepare more as a team," Baldelli said, on the very day when pitchers and catchers reported to camp. "They're still going to have individual things they're going to work on. But I like the idea and the way I think it'll look in practice, getting the guys out there as a group to get ready.” Although it might not have been a bona fide cliché, he’s clearly running his team in a more stereotypical way, and that aura is enough to win it for him this year. I’m sure Carlos will spend all season training for next spring. Previous winners: Carlos Correa (2024, 2023) "Grainiest Video" Award: Dan Hayes Finally, my favorite award. The media can’t help themselves, and we, as fans, will eat up whatever they give us. When baseball’s back, we need proof. Grainy videos taken through a fence at the beginning of camp are a spring training staple. Do-Hyoung Park was consistently the best at this one, though I gave him a one-year suspension in 2024 for appearing to take grainy video intentionally. It ended up being a de facto lifetime suspension, as he left the beat after this season. And we missed him. There just weren’t many bad videos. Dan Hayes won, though. This one is probably my favorite, because he inexplicably took it while lying on the floor. This one was also pretty good, given the dreariness and silence and the batters being obscured by the protective screen. Previous winners: Dan Hayes (2024), Do-Hyoung Park (2023)
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Unless Rob Manfred has his way, some things in baseball are eternal. Three strikes and you’re out. Nine innings make a game. Someone shows up to spring training in the best shape of their life. Let’s give out some awards. Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images We’ve got some awards to hand out, and they’re not for meaningless things like “best spring training hitter" or anything. No, we’re locking in and giving out trophies for the most cliché happenings. Every year, the same storylines tend to pop up, and fans consume them like Kramarczuk's sausages. We had a great showing this year. Every predicted cliché had at least one qualifier, and many award winners shone magnificently, going above and beyond what the academy was looking for. Let’s get started! Miguel Sanó Memorial "Best Shape of His Life" Award: Jhoan Durán We start our awards with a classic. Each year, someone in every camp shows up in what they or someone else can describe as “the best shape of his life.” Sometimes, several people show up in such a state. Some people show up in such a state several times (hence the award being named after Boquetón himself). Like last year, there was no impressive, runaway winner. In 2024, Christian Vázquez showed up to camp eight pounds lighter than he had been the previous year, and I determined that wasn’t enough weight (my rule of thumb: if I’ve lost that much weight in 24 hours before, it’s not notable). However, this year, Jhoan Durán showed up 12 pounds lighter (surpassing my 11-pound threshold), making him deserving of the Best Shape of His Life Award. Hopefully, his weight stays down, and his velocity stays up. Previous winners: Jhoan Durán (2024), José Miranda (2023) "Newest Pitch" Award: Jorge Alcalá It was a relatively quiet year on the new pitch front. Every year, several pitchers come in trying to tinker with something. Sometimes it’s something they start working on in camp; sometimes it’s a pitch they designed at Driveline; and sometimes they tried something once at the behest of a teammate and it becomes a real thing. Does it carry over to the regular season? Not often. But it’s always interesting to see if it can. The most prominent new pitch discussed this spring was David Festa’s new sinker—an option for him to mix in against righties. However, this is the newest pitch award, and one Twins pitcher has had a new offering flying under the radar. It looks like Jorge Alcalá is now throwing a curveball, a pitch he hasn’t thrown to this point in his career. It showed up at Pitch Profiler at the beginning of March, and Brooks Baseball claims he’s thrown it about two dozen times. Who knows if it’ll carry over into the season, but its 12-6 shape might help him finally neutralize lefties—something he’s struggled to do to this point in his career. This unseats Joe Ryan, who had won in back-to-back seasons. Threepeats are unheard of when it comes to the Golden Grapefruits, and Ryan wasn't daring enough to come in this year with some wacky new thing to change that status quo. Previous winners: Joe Ryan (2024, 2023), Griffin Jax (2023) "Most Revamped Swing" Award: Ty France It’s a little more challenging to pick out which guys have made swing overhauls, but someone usually tells you about it. Ty France was that guy this year. Actually, France wasn’t the guy who first brought it up. Twins legend Denny Hocking tweeted out that he had worked with France over the offseason mere hours before the Twins announced his signing. Allegedly, France spent the offseason getting back to basics, simplifying his swing. It’s a pretty normal reaction after struggling mightily last season, and early returns have been tremendous. If we gave out a spring training MVP, it'd probably be his for the taking. Previous winners: Brooks Lee (2024), Max Kepler (2023) "Weirdest Injury" Award: Mickey Gasper Although not a cliché, it seems that every year there is an inexplicable injury that can only be chalked up to spring training. Recall 2021, when Byron Buxton missed a few weeks due to a root canal after chipping his tooth while eating steak. I thought I’d be giving the award to Chris Paddack. If I had a nickel for every time Paddack got hit with a comebacker in the third inning of the Twins' March 8 game, I’d have 10 cents—which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice. He took two comebackers in a single inning, the second hitting him in the head and giving him a bruise. However, on Sunday, newly minted cult hero Mickey Gasper managed to get stepped on by top prospect Brandon Winokur, requiring six stitches in his heel. Gasper was playing second base, and Winokur was playing shortstop, and they collided on a grounder up the middle. Hindsight is 20/20 (though peripheral vision doesn't appear to be, for these two), but it’s worth asking if putting a guy who shouldn’t be playing much second base next to a guy who shouldn’t be playing much shortstop in major-league camp was such a great idea. Fortunately, Gasper is still making the Opening Day roster, even if that requires a Curt Schilling bloody sock. Previous winners: Pete Maki (ruptured bicep doing pullups, 2024), Jordan Balazovic (broken jaw, bar fight, 2023) "Honey, Grab My Program" Award: Jeferson Morales Spring training, especially early in the year and late in games, features a rotating cast of characters more extensive than The Simpsons'. Non-roster invitees, prospects, and career minor-leaguers are each given their turns in the Florida sun. Every year, a few prospects get their number called more than others, consistently sending fans scrambling to look up who No. 80 is. Only players who have never appeared in MLB and are not on the 40-man roster qualify for this award. Jeferson Morales ran away with it this year, nearly leading the whole club in games played (18, one short of MLB vet Armando Alvarez’s 19), and earning 34 at-bats, ranking 18th in the organization and eight ahead of the next qualified candidate, Luke Keaschall (26 PA). Morales made the most of his opportunity, with an OPS over 1.000, and given his flexibility, he’s a sleeper pick to get some big-league time this year if there are injuries. Of note, though, the previous two winners of this award left the Twins organization the following season. Previous winners: Chris Williams (2024), Andrew Bechtold (2023) "First Cliché Statement" Award: Rocco Baldelli We have an upset. I really thought Carlos Correa would win this award until his contract was up, but Rocco Baldelli swooped in and stole it from under him. Likely due in part to the collapse, Rocco has a bit of a fire lit under him (and maybe his seat) and became a bit more of a hardo this spring. Workouts have been more structured, for instance. “I think we're going to prepare more as a team," Baldelli said, on the very day when pitchers and catchers reported to camp. "They're still going to have individual things they're going to work on. But I like the idea and the way I think it'll look in practice, getting the guys out there as a group to get ready.” Although it might not have been a bona fide cliché, he’s clearly running his team in a more stereotypical way, and that aura is enough to win it for him this year. I’m sure Carlos will spend all season training for next spring. Previous winners: Carlos Correa (2024, 2023) "Grainiest Video" Award: Dan Hayes Finally, my favorite award. The media can’t help themselves, and we, as fans, will eat up whatever they give us. When baseball’s back, we need proof. Grainy videos taken through a fence at the beginning of camp are a spring training staple. Do-Hyoung Park was consistently the best at this one, though I gave him a one-year suspension in 2024 for appearing to take grainy video intentionally. It ended up being a de facto lifetime suspension, as he left the beat after this season. And we missed him. There just weren’t many bad videos. Dan Hayes won, though. This one is probably my favorite, because he inexplicably took it while lying on the floor. This one was also pretty good, given the dreariness and silence and the batters being obscured by the protective screen. Previous winners: Dan Hayes (2024), Do-Hyoung Park (2023) View full article
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- rocco baldelli
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No one else has the courage to draft the least valuable players. Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg predict who the least valuable Twins will be in 2025 by WAR. Yes, really. All in good fun, of course. Gregg complains about his time at Guardians spring training, and Lou struggles to build a blind lineup in his debut on the player's side of the game. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article
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Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg predict who the least valuable Twins will be in 2025 by WAR. Yes, really. All in good fun, of course. Gregg complains about his time at Guardians spring training, and Lou struggles to build a blind lineup in his debut on the player's side of the game. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily
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Many roster projections, including some on this very website, predict that both young infielders will make the team out of spring training. But that invites a question: Even if they’re both performing adequately, is there enough playing time to go around? Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images Second base is perhaps the only roster battle (on the hitter side) for the Twins this spring training. They have three leading candidates: Willi Castro, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien—three hitters who each face major questions ahead of the 2025 season. Lee and Julien, each (at different times) dubbed the Twins’ future answer at the keystone, struggled last season. In 185 plate appearances as a rookie, Lee had a .585 OPS, and Julien only performed marginally better. For what it’s worth, Lee appears to be the far superior defender, but neither inspires supreme confidence. The general feeling among onlookers is that the battle for second base is between Lee and Julien, but if neither performs, Castro will be a suitable solution. Although he struggled in the second half last season (.627 OPS, 77 OPS+), and some of his value is tied up in being to play all over the diamond, Castro has been a relatively consistent (103 OPS+ between 2023 and 2024) option and could fill the position admirably. However, even if Castro is the Opening Day second baseman, that versatility likely means there will still be a spot for Lee or Julien on the bench. Without Lee or Castro, the alternatives at second base would be Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, or Mickey Gasper. So whether or not one of the two wins the starting job, there will be at least one spot for them to fight over. Lee certainly has more flexibility than Julien, with the ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop. There are questions as to whether Lee has the range to play shortstop, but if he’s on the team, he’d probably be the backup shortstop, edging out Castro. Julien, on the other hand, can play only questionable defense at second and first base. Whether they were the starting second baseman or a bench player, both would get at least a little playing time away from the keystone. And yet, it’s debatable whether both can get enough playing time right now. Dividing Up Playing Time For this exercise, let's assume that Lee wins the job out of spring training and is the team’s primary second baseman (which seems more likely at this point). Suppose Julien makes the team as a bench player who will see time at first base, second base, and designated hitter. In that case, the bench will look like this: Julien as a backup infielder, Harrison Bader as a backup outfielder, Castro as a super-utility option, and Christian Vázquez as the backup catcher. In this case, where would Julien get his playing time? Well, he wouldn’t be starting against lefties, so we can cross out about 25-30% of games right away. Then, we need to consider Bader and Castro. Bader will (hopefully) mainly be playing center field, giving Byron Buxton the day off. Still, he’ll also get the occasional start in a corner, bumping Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach to designated hitter or shielding them from a left-handed starter altogether. It seems Bader will be something of a pseudo-starter, getting considerable run—more than a standard fourth outfielder. Speaking of pseudo-starters, Castro, too, will play a lot. However, he needs to coexist with Bader, which means that Castro will play minimally in center field (where he started 24 times in 2024 and 29 times in 2023). Twins fans can expect Castro to play a more prominent role on the dirt, in this scenario, especially against righties. (He’s better from the left side of the plate.) In that case, Julien would get time at second base (if Lee is either covering shortstop for the day or taking the day off and Castro is on the bench) or playing third base or the outfield (which would only be days that Bader is in center or sitting). In short, he would only play second base on days that neither Lee nor Castro are, and there’s a righty on the mound. Julien can play first base and DH. However, first base is also crowded (albeit not with elite talent but rather hard-to-move bodies), given the presence of Jose Miranda and Ty France—pseudo-starters themselves, at minimum. Miranda will also get time at third base, further limiting Castro’s non-second-base duties. Even without that, the path to playing time for Julien at first base isn’t clear; he didn't meet the offensive standard at the position last year. It’s a couple of crowded rooms that Julien is stepping into, and as a bat that the Twins (at least in the recent past) thought could be a future asset, it’s hard to sign him up for playing so sparingly. We don’t need to do the same step-by-step with Lee, because many of the same factors come into play. If Lee isn’t the primary second baseman, some of his time will come in starts against lefties (hitting right-handed has historically been his weaker side, at least in the minors, for what it’s worth) at second base, in lieu of Julien. He would see minimal time at DH, so the rest of his action against righties would come when A) Lewis, Castro, and Miranda aren’t playing third base, B) Correa isn’t playing shortstop, and C) Julien and Castro aren’t playing second base. He’d probably be able to weasel his way into more playing time as a bench player than Julien would, but it’s hard to see it being more than about 70% of the time, which might not be enough to justify the very recent top prospect’s role. Of course, all of this goes out the window when the Twins face some injury, which is inevitable—and may even happen before Opening Day. Also, if Castro doesn't repeat his performance of the last two seasons, Lee and Julien will have more time. But as this roster is constructed right now, there are too many players in line for regular time to roster both Lee and Julien. Despite their flexibility, there’s only enough room for one to get enough playing time to flourish. Given all of the platoon bats and pseudo-starters, a lesser player may actually have more utility than one of the two second basemen. If Julien starts the year in Triple A, Gasper could be an option who can do the things Julien can do (get on base and play passable first, second, and DH) while also serving as an emergency catcher—without the handwringing over whether the 29-year-old rookie is getting enough playing time. Martin and DaShawn Keirsey could also play bit roles at the end of the bench. Martin, a righty hitter, could see time versus southpaws in the outfield (though he doesn’t have great platoon splits), keep Castro out of center (where he is at higher risk of wearing down), be an emergency option at second base behind Castro and whichever of the two make the team, and be a pinch-running option late in games. Keirsey, too, can cover all three outfield spots and pinch-run, though he is left-handed and a bit redundant alongside Wallner and Larnach. However, if the Twins are looking for something they don’t have, his speed complements the current roster, and could you imagine a late-game outfield defense of Bader, Buxton, and Keirsey? Wow. Again, none of this will matter once someone inevitably gets hurt, but with FanGraphs’s Roster Resource projecting both to make the Opening Day roster, it’s worth examining how feasible that would actually be. View full article
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Second base is perhaps the only roster battle (on the hitter side) for the Twins this spring training. They have three leading candidates: Willi Castro, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien—three hitters who each face major questions ahead of the 2025 season. Lee and Julien, each (at different times) dubbed the Twins’ future answer at the keystone, struggled last season. In 185 plate appearances as a rookie, Lee had a .585 OPS, and Julien only performed marginally better. For what it’s worth, Lee appears to be the far superior defender, but neither inspires supreme confidence. The general feeling among onlookers is that the battle for second base is between Lee and Julien, but if neither performs, Castro will be a suitable solution. Although he struggled in the second half last season (.627 OPS, 77 OPS+), and some of his value is tied up in being to play all over the diamond, Castro has been a relatively consistent (103 OPS+ between 2023 and 2024) option and could fill the position admirably. However, even if Castro is the Opening Day second baseman, that versatility likely means there will still be a spot for Lee or Julien on the bench. Without Lee or Castro, the alternatives at second base would be Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, or Mickey Gasper. So whether or not one of the two wins the starting job, there will be at least one spot for them to fight over. Lee certainly has more flexibility than Julien, with the ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop. There are questions as to whether Lee has the range to play shortstop, but if he’s on the team, he’d probably be the backup shortstop, edging out Castro. Julien, on the other hand, can play only questionable defense at second and first base. Whether they were the starting second baseman or a bench player, both would get at least a little playing time away from the keystone. And yet, it’s debatable whether both can get enough playing time right now. Dividing Up Playing Time For this exercise, let's assume that Lee wins the job out of spring training and is the team’s primary second baseman (which seems more likely at this point). Suppose Julien makes the team as a bench player who will see time at first base, second base, and designated hitter. In that case, the bench will look like this: Julien as a backup infielder, Harrison Bader as a backup outfielder, Castro as a super-utility option, and Christian Vázquez as the backup catcher. In this case, where would Julien get his playing time? Well, he wouldn’t be starting against lefties, so we can cross out about 25-30% of games right away. Then, we need to consider Bader and Castro. Bader will (hopefully) mainly be playing center field, giving Byron Buxton the day off. Still, he’ll also get the occasional start in a corner, bumping Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach to designated hitter or shielding them from a left-handed starter altogether. It seems Bader will be something of a pseudo-starter, getting considerable run—more than a standard fourth outfielder. Speaking of pseudo-starters, Castro, too, will play a lot. However, he needs to coexist with Bader, which means that Castro will play minimally in center field (where he started 24 times in 2024 and 29 times in 2023). Twins fans can expect Castro to play a more prominent role on the dirt, in this scenario, especially against righties. (He’s better from the left side of the plate.) In that case, Julien would get time at second base (if Lee is either covering shortstop for the day or taking the day off and Castro is on the bench) or playing third base or the outfield (which would only be days that Bader is in center or sitting). In short, he would only play second base on days that neither Lee nor Castro are, and there’s a righty on the mound. Julien can play first base and DH. However, first base is also crowded (albeit not with elite talent but rather hard-to-move bodies), given the presence of Jose Miranda and Ty France—pseudo-starters themselves, at minimum. Miranda will also get time at third base, further limiting Castro’s non-second-base duties. Even without that, the path to playing time for Julien at first base isn’t clear; he didn't meet the offensive standard at the position last year. It’s a couple of crowded rooms that Julien is stepping into, and as a bat that the Twins (at least in the recent past) thought could be a future asset, it’s hard to sign him up for playing so sparingly. We don’t need to do the same step-by-step with Lee, because many of the same factors come into play. If Lee isn’t the primary second baseman, some of his time will come in starts against lefties (hitting right-handed has historically been his weaker side, at least in the minors, for what it’s worth) at second base, in lieu of Julien. He would see minimal time at DH, so the rest of his action against righties would come when A) Lewis, Castro, and Miranda aren’t playing third base, B) Correa isn’t playing shortstop, and C) Julien and Castro aren’t playing second base. He’d probably be able to weasel his way into more playing time as a bench player than Julien would, but it’s hard to see it being more than about 70% of the time, which might not be enough to justify the very recent top prospect’s role. Of course, all of this goes out the window when the Twins face some injury, which is inevitable—and may even happen before Opening Day. Also, if Castro doesn't repeat his performance of the last two seasons, Lee and Julien will have more time. But as this roster is constructed right now, there are too many players in line for regular time to roster both Lee and Julien. Despite their flexibility, there’s only enough room for one to get enough playing time to flourish. Given all of the platoon bats and pseudo-starters, a lesser player may actually have more utility than one of the two second basemen. If Julien starts the year in Triple A, Gasper could be an option who can do the things Julien can do (get on base and play passable first, second, and DH) while also serving as an emergency catcher—without the handwringing over whether the 29-year-old rookie is getting enough playing time. Martin and DaShawn Keirsey could also play bit roles at the end of the bench. Martin, a righty hitter, could see time versus southpaws in the outfield (though he doesn’t have great platoon splits), keep Castro out of center (where he is at higher risk of wearing down), be an emergency option at second base behind Castro and whichever of the two make the team, and be a pinch-running option late in games. Keirsey, too, can cover all three outfield spots and pinch-run, though he is left-handed and a bit redundant alongside Wallner and Larnach. However, if the Twins are looking for something they don’t have, his speed complements the current roster, and could you imagine a late-game outfield defense of Bader, Buxton, and Keirsey? Wow. Again, none of this will matter once someone inevitably gets hurt, but with FanGraphs’s Roster Resource projecting both to make the Opening Day roster, it’s worth examining how feasible that would actually be.
- 55 comments
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- brooks lee
- edouard julien
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Episode 33: Spring Training Mailbag
Greggory Masterson posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You have questions. Twins Off-Daily has answers. Sort of. Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg dig into a spring training mailbag, answering questions from you, the listeners. They discuss second base, the rotation, the last bench spot, what constitutes a short king, and more! Gregg attempts to Stump the Schoen, and Lou might claims Mickey Gasper will be an Opening Day starter. You'll have to listen to know for sure. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article -
Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg dig into a spring training mailbag, answering questions from you, the listeners. They discuss second base, the rotation, the last bench spot, what constitutes a short king, and more! Gregg attempts to Stump the Schoen, and Lou might claims Mickey Gasper will be an Opening Day starter. You'll have to listen to know for sure. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily
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It's a double-whammy. All else being equal, it would have been great to keep Carew in Minnesota for his whole career (and could you imagine him playing half his games on the concrete Metrodome?), but also it would have been better for everyone if the context that led to him leaving never happened.
- 2 replies
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- chris paddack
- zebby matthews
- (and 4 more)
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Okay, I misunderstood what you were saying--carry on.
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
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I didn't intend for this to come across saying his lineups were predominantly 4-5 lefties at a time; I think I said that a bit too strongly. I also misspoke and meant there would be 3 righties on the bench. What I meant was that he generally had 3 or so, and so you either have to have them 1-4-7, 2-5-8, or 3-6-9 to have them spaced out. And if he had any more than that (I suppose we could throw Castro in there, too), those compromised spots would come up in the lineup, but we're unlikely to see that happen nearly as often this season.
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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I’m not sure that’s wholly charitable. The past few years, there have been 3 or 4 lefties in the lineup each game. Like last year, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Kepler, and Julien could all be in the batting order at the beginning of the season. With that alignment, they’d go more every-other. Then the bench would often have 3 lefties. Now, they only have 3 true lefties, and that’s if Julien makes the team. It’s easier to spread them out so there are no spots where the other manager can put in a lefty reliever against a LRL sequence. I’m not sure that’s by design, but it changes the calculus nonetheless.
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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Off-days are back! It's the first Twins Off-Daily Podcast on an off-day since September 21st. Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, Ol Gregg empty the notebook, discussing Chris Paddack, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Louis Varland, Jorge Alcala, Harrison Bader, and so much more. Immaculate Gregg also returns! Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article
- 2 replies
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- chris paddack
- zebby matthews
- (and 4 more)
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Episode 32: Twins Camp Notes on the Return of Off-Day Podcasts
Greggory Masterson posted an article in Podcasts
It's the first Twins Off-Daily Podcast on an off-day since September 21st. Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, Ol Gregg empty the notebook, discussing Chris Paddack, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Louis Varland, Jorge Alcala, Harrison Bader, and so much more. Immaculate Gregg also returns! Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily- 2 comments
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- chris paddack
- zebby matthews
- (and 4 more)
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For what it's worth, Wallner hit .250 in 2023 and .260 in 2024. Sure, that's not what some fans will demand if their idealized leadoff hitter bats .280+, but there aren't many Twins who will do that. In Max Kepler's 2019 season, he hit leadoff with a .250 average and was largely successful, though there were the same grumbles about hit average.
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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Well I appreciate you reading it anyway. How would you approach the question of who the Twins leadoff guy should be?
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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Yes, Wallner has led off every game he has played in
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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The Twins don’t have a prototypical leadoff man in their lineup right now. But is their massive slugging right fielder actually the answer? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Leadoff hitters: They just don’t make ‘em like they used to. Every team can’t have their own Luis Arraez (though that’s not for lack of trying, given how many teams he’s played for in the last three years). The Twins don’t really have one, either. Edouard Julien, Arraez’s heir apparent, did a good job in the role in 2023, utilizing a patient approach that produced a .381 on-base percentage and 16 homers in 408 plate appearances, 241 of which came in the leadoff spot (and another 98 as the No. 2 hitter). Unfortunately, that performance didn’t carry over to 2024, and he’s now fighting for a roster spot, let alone the leadoff spot in the order. Beyond Julien, though, the Twins lack a true leadoff type. These are guys who classically get on base, run well, and see a lot of pitches, working a count to let their teammates get a good look at the pitcher. Last season, the Twins had four players who got at least 50 plate appearances in the leadoff spot—Julien (148), Willi Castro (227), Manuel Margot (149), and Trevor Larnach. I’m gonna need you to sit down for this next bit. Margot was the most successful player in that spot, primarily against lefties, batting .316. Castro is probably a more typical leadoff hitter than Larnach, given his speed, but neither has posted great on-base numbers—each were around .330. That’s good, but not great, compared to the league average over the last two years of .316, and it's certainly not where you set the target for the top spot in the order. I did a little bit of data analysis. It’s not some fancy formula, but I used it a couple of years ago to ask this same question ahead of a 2023 season in which the Twins didn’t have a clear leadoff hitter. Basically, I just ranked Twins projected to make the Opening Day roster (per FanGraphs's Roster Resource) on their ability to get on base, run the bases, and see pitches. At the time, this methodology told me Joey Gallo was the best option, followed by Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton. So here’s what I did again. I looked at every hitter projected to make the team out of spring training based on Roster Resource (plus Austin Martin, to be safe). I then compiled select stats from A) 2023-2024 and B) Steamer projections for each player. The players were ranked 1-14, based on their OBP; Fangraphs baserunning runs per 550 plate appearances; and average pitches per plate appearance (there aren’t projections for P/PA, so I used career averages for the projections). It won’t come as a surprise that Christian Vázquez was the worst candidate for leading off, which lends a smidgen of credibility to this exercise. So who did the numbers suggest should lead off? #4 Willi Castro (3rd Past, t-5th Projection) Past Rankings: 4th OBP (.334), 2nd BsR (1.6), 5th P/PA (3.92) 2025 Projections: 7th OBP (.317), 4th BsR (-0.3), 8th P/PA (3.80) Castro spent much of last season as the Twins’ leadoff hitter, and this exercise agrees that he’s not a bad choice. His on-base percentage is buoyed by a significant hit-by-pitch rate, which is sticky year-to-year, but not ideal for his health, especially as a player who relies on his speed. Of note, he’s projected to be the fourth-best player on the bases, but his projection is below-average, which speaks to how slow this team is. Buxton, Martin and Harrison Bader are the only three who project to be above-average. #3 Trevor Larnach (5th Past, 2nd Projection) Past Rankings: 6th OBP (.329), 5th BsR (0.1), 2nd P/PA (4.07) 2025 Projections: 6th OBP (.325), 9th BsR (-0.8), 2nd P/PA (4.05) Larnach saw some time as a leadoff hitter, and he ranked high in this exercise, if for no other reason than he wasn’t bad at any of the three traits. He gets on base fairly well, isn’t a disaster on the bases, and he sees a lot of pitches. He’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, but it could be worse. #2 Edouard Julien (1st Past, 3rd Projection) Past Rankings: 2nd OBP (.343), t-5th BsR (0.1), 1st P/PA (4.16) 2025 Projections: 2nd OBP (.347), 14th BsR (-1.2), 1st P/PA (4.17) I mean, obviously, if Julien can return to what he was doing in 2023, there’s no reason to do this exercise. He’s a decent runner who sees a lot of pitches and gets on base at a high clip. But he was not that guy last season, and it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll be on the Opening Day roster in 2025, which brings us to #1 Matt Wallner (2nd Past, 1st Projection) Past Rankings: 1st OBP (.371), t-5th BsR (0.1), 3rd P/PA (4.03) 2025 Projections: 4th OBP (.339), 7th BsR (-0.5), 3rd P/PA (4.02) So under this exercise, Wallner just barely edges out Julien. He’s got a great on-base percentage to this point in his career, and he’s the proverbial sneaky-fast, though his sprint speed has fallen pretty substantially each year of his career. He also sees a lot of pitches. Of course, it’s probably valid to ask whether OBP should be weighted equally to the other two, so if we count getting on base double, we have a tie between Julien and Wallner. Honestly, Julien and Wallner stand out so far in this exercise that it’s hard to ignore. They’re the only two Twins, under these parameters, that even slightly resemble a leadoff hitter. It's also valid to question whether there’s a need for a true leadoff hitter in modern baseball. Like, why do we need to wring our hands over this? Why not just stack the lineup with the best hitters at the top, giving them the most plate appearances over the course of the year. But Wallner is certainly one of the better hitters on this team. He’s got a three-true-outcomes approach, with 50% of his plate appearances resulting in a walk, strikeout, or home run. He’s a Temu Joey Gallo. But it’s worked for him, as he’s 40% better than average thus far in his career. Alongside Correa, Buxton, and Royce Lewis, he’s one of the best four hitters on the team, so putting him (and the three of them) at the top of the order is sensible. Leading Wallner off could result in some leadoff moonshots, which are great for setting the tone of a game, but it could also result in fewer guys being on base for those moonshots. There’s also another question at play: Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli has become notorious, infamous, whatever adjective you prefer, for his mid-game line switches, removing his lefties for right-handed pinch-hitters, even in the middle innings, to face lefty relievers. Julien, Larnach, and Wallner alike have been victims of that pattern. And if Wallner is indeed one of the Twins' best hitters, batting him leadoff sets him up for losing plate appearances, paradoxically. Think about it like this: when the Twins face lefty starters, Baldelli stacks the lineups with righties, often batting subpar bats like Kyle Farmer and Jordan Luplow high. Because they’re higher in the lineup, it’s easier to swap them out early, when the opposing lefty exits. Although that practice gets bats like Wallner’s into the game as soon as possible, batting Wallner himself at the top spot can do the opposite against righty starters, if a team goes to a lefty reliever in the fifth or sixth—especially now, as the Twins will have limited options for bench righties, it may be the case that they only have one pinch-hitting option per game, and if Wallner is the first to come up, that might mean losing him. That may be digging a bit too far into the weeds, but it could be a consideration. All in all, though, there are definitely worse options for leading off than Wallner, and it would get the Twins more plate appearances for one of their top bats. Sure, he may strike out more than you’d prefer, but I don’t think the Twins are unfounded in giving him an opportunity. They’ve clearly been trying it out, with Wallner leading off four of their first six games (all four that he’s started). View full article
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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Leadoff hitters: They just don’t make ‘em like they used to. Every team can’t have their own Luis Arraez (though that’s not for lack of trying, given how many teams he’s played for in the last three years). The Twins don’t really have one, either. Edouard Julien, Arraez’s heir apparent, did a good job in the role in 2023, utilizing a patient approach that produced a .381 on-base percentage and 16 homers in 408 plate appearances, 241 of which came in the leadoff spot (and another 98 as the No. 2 hitter). Unfortunately, that performance didn’t carry over to 2024, and he’s now fighting for a roster spot, let alone the leadoff spot in the order. Beyond Julien, though, the Twins lack a true leadoff type. These are guys who classically get on base, run well, and see a lot of pitches, working a count to let their teammates get a good look at the pitcher. Last season, the Twins had four players who got at least 50 plate appearances in the leadoff spot—Julien (148), Willi Castro (227), Manuel Margot (149), and Trevor Larnach. I’m gonna need you to sit down for this next bit. Margot was the most successful player in that spot, primarily against lefties, batting .316. Castro is probably a more typical leadoff hitter than Larnach, given his speed, but neither has posted great on-base numbers—each were around .330. That’s good, but not great, compared to the league average over the last two years of .316, and it's certainly not where you set the target for the top spot in the order. I did a little bit of data analysis. It’s not some fancy formula, but I used it a couple of years ago to ask this same question ahead of a 2023 season in which the Twins didn’t have a clear leadoff hitter. Basically, I just ranked Twins projected to make the Opening Day roster (per FanGraphs's Roster Resource) on their ability to get on base, run the bases, and see pitches. At the time, this methodology told me Joey Gallo was the best option, followed by Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton. So here’s what I did again. I looked at every hitter projected to make the team out of spring training based on Roster Resource (plus Austin Martin, to be safe). I then compiled select stats from A) 2023-2024 and B) Steamer projections for each player. The players were ranked 1-14, based on their OBP; Fangraphs baserunning runs per 550 plate appearances; and average pitches per plate appearance (there aren’t projections for P/PA, so I used career averages for the projections). It won’t come as a surprise that Christian Vázquez was the worst candidate for leading off, which lends a smidgen of credibility to this exercise. So who did the numbers suggest should lead off? #4 Willi Castro (3rd Past, t-5th Projection) Past Rankings: 4th OBP (.334), 2nd BsR (1.6), 5th P/PA (3.92) 2025 Projections: 7th OBP (.317), 4th BsR (-0.3), 8th P/PA (3.80) Castro spent much of last season as the Twins’ leadoff hitter, and this exercise agrees that he’s not a bad choice. His on-base percentage is buoyed by a significant hit-by-pitch rate, which is sticky year-to-year, but not ideal for his health, especially as a player who relies on his speed. Of note, he’s projected to be the fourth-best player on the bases, but his projection is below-average, which speaks to how slow this team is. Buxton, Martin and Harrison Bader are the only three who project to be above-average. #3 Trevor Larnach (5th Past, 2nd Projection) Past Rankings: 6th OBP (.329), 5th BsR (0.1), 2nd P/PA (4.07) 2025 Projections: 6th OBP (.325), 9th BsR (-0.8), 2nd P/PA (4.05) Larnach saw some time as a leadoff hitter, and he ranked high in this exercise, if for no other reason than he wasn’t bad at any of the three traits. He gets on base fairly well, isn’t a disaster on the bases, and he sees a lot of pitches. He’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, but it could be worse. #2 Edouard Julien (1st Past, 3rd Projection) Past Rankings: 2nd OBP (.343), t-5th BsR (0.1), 1st P/PA (4.16) 2025 Projections: 2nd OBP (.347), 14th BsR (-1.2), 1st P/PA (4.17) I mean, obviously, if Julien can return to what he was doing in 2023, there’s no reason to do this exercise. He’s a decent runner who sees a lot of pitches and gets on base at a high clip. But he was not that guy last season, and it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll be on the Opening Day roster in 2025, which brings us to #1 Matt Wallner (2nd Past, 1st Projection) Past Rankings: 1st OBP (.371), t-5th BsR (0.1), 3rd P/PA (4.03) 2025 Projections: 4th OBP (.339), 7th BsR (-0.5), 3rd P/PA (4.02) So under this exercise, Wallner just barely edges out Julien. He’s got a great on-base percentage to this point in his career, and he’s the proverbial sneaky-fast, though his sprint speed has fallen pretty substantially each year of his career. He also sees a lot of pitches. Of course, it’s probably valid to ask whether OBP should be weighted equally to the other two, so if we count getting on base double, we have a tie between Julien and Wallner. Honestly, Julien and Wallner stand out so far in this exercise that it’s hard to ignore. They’re the only two Twins, under these parameters, that even slightly resemble a leadoff hitter. It's also valid to question whether there’s a need for a true leadoff hitter in modern baseball. Like, why do we need to wring our hands over this? Why not just stack the lineup with the best hitters at the top, giving them the most plate appearances over the course of the year. But Wallner is certainly one of the better hitters on this team. He’s got a three-true-outcomes approach, with 50% of his plate appearances resulting in a walk, strikeout, or home run. He’s a Temu Joey Gallo. But it’s worked for him, as he’s 40% better than average thus far in his career. Alongside Correa, Buxton, and Royce Lewis, he’s one of the best four hitters on the team, so putting him (and the three of them) at the top of the order is sensible. Leading Wallner off could result in some leadoff moonshots, which are great for setting the tone of a game, but it could also result in fewer guys being on base for those moonshots. There’s also another question at play: Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli has become notorious, infamous, whatever adjective you prefer, for his mid-game line switches, removing his lefties for right-handed pinch-hitters, even in the middle innings, to face lefty relievers. Julien, Larnach, and Wallner alike have been victims of that pattern. And if Wallner is indeed one of the Twins' best hitters, batting him leadoff sets him up for losing plate appearances, paradoxically. Think about it like this: when the Twins face lefty starters, Baldelli stacks the lineups with righties, often batting subpar bats like Kyle Farmer and Jordan Luplow high. Because they’re higher in the lineup, it’s easier to swap them out early, when the opposing lefty exits. Although that practice gets bats like Wallner’s into the game as soon as possible, batting Wallner himself at the top spot can do the opposite against righty starters, if a team goes to a lefty reliever in the fifth or sixth—especially now, as the Twins will have limited options for bench righties, it may be the case that they only have one pinch-hitting option per game, and if Wallner is the first to come up, that might mean losing him. That may be digging a bit too far into the weeds, but it could be a consideration. All in all, though, there are definitely worse options for leading off than Wallner, and it would get the Twins more plate appearances for one of their top bats. Sure, he may strike out more than you’d prefer, but I don’t think the Twins are unfounded in giving him an opportunity. They’ve clearly been trying it out, with Wallner leading off four of their first six games (all four that he’s started).
- 91 comments
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
- (and 4 more)
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We sure we want to blame the Bear for this?
- 80 replies
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- harrison bader
- matt wallner
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(and 2 more)
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France. Ty France. Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg are joined by the Pride of Twins Daily Nick Nelson to litigate the most controversial non-guaranteed million dollar contract the Twins have ever given. Fun was had by all, except Lou. The group made bold predictions for the season (Gregg misunderstands the assignment) and had a conversation about presidents, too (Cody didn't have the most outrageous take for once). Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article
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Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg are joined by the Pride of Twins Daily Nick Nelson to litigate the most controversial non-guaranteed million dollar contract the Twins have ever given. Fun was had by all, except Lou. The group made bold predictions for the season (Gregg misunderstands the assignment) and had a conversation about presidents, too (Cody didn't have the most outrageous take for once). Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily

