Greggory Masterson

The Twins have accomplished next-to nothing this offseason. Fortunately, at least according to FanGraphs, nearly any offensive addition would help. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins are a good team—at least on paper. FanGraphs runs projections over the offseason, and currently, the Twins rank seventh among all MLB teams in projected wins above replacement. It’s not a perfect system—baseball is played on the field, not a spreadsheet; they project Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa to play close to full seasons; plenty of remaining free agents can tilt the scales when they sign with other teams. But it is a nice tool to use when evaluating a team against the rest of the league, at least in terms of present talent level. "Present" is doing a lot of work for the Twins who, by all accounts, won’t be making many moves this offseason due to payroll constraints, while their rivals with more spending power add to their squads. FanGraphs projects Minnesota to have the best bullpen in baseball and sixth-best rotation, combining for the third-best pitching staff. They rank in the top 10 in projected performance at shortstop, third base, center field, and right field. Their second base group is seen as middle-of-the-pack. Their catcher, first base, left field, and designated hitter spots are all in the late teens. Catcher is going to be what it’s going to be. There will likely be some sort of mix of Ryan Jeffers (if not traded), Christian Vázquez (if not traded), Jair Camargo, new addition Mickey Gasper, or a low-tier veteran free agent. But the other three spots are somewhat peculiar. Whether you buy into the projections and methodologies used or not, the system can identify spots most open to improvement, and when your three lowest spots are left field, first base, and designated hitter, hoo boy, the mind starts running. These three positions are lowest on the defensive spectrum, meaning that there’s a higher offensive bar to clear to be an average or better hitter, but having a need at a combination of the areas opens a door so big even my inflated head could fit through it. Those three spots being the teams’ positions of need means anyone can fill that hole. Right now, Fangraphs projects some combination of Trevor Larnach, José Miranda, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, and Luke Keaschall to fill those three spots. That group has a high ceiling but a low floor, given the question marks around each player. Any bat will do. The team isn’t looking for, say, a third baseman; that’s Royce Lewis’s spot. They just need some sort of bat. There’s been some hemming and hawing about finding a first baseman specifically, but they probably don’t even have to do that. If they find an outfielder with enough thump, they can easily make room for him in left field and at DH without sacrificing whichever of the aforementioned hitters establishes himself this season. Handedness probably doesn’t matter much, either. Just find the best hitter available in the team’s budget. They’re a little desperate, I would assume. If FanGraphs's projections are to be believed, we've probably collectively gotten a little too cute in our shopping lists. The best bat available will make a difference, regardless of handedness or position. So, let’s broaden the scope of the hunt for an offseason addition. The elephant in the room is still payroll limitations. Despite the imposed hardships, it’s not unreasonable to assume the team could have somewhere between $5 million and $10 million to spend on a mid-sized addition—following the trades of at least two of Vázquez, Castro, and Chris Paddack, unrealized actions which have become Twins fan canon by now. That constraint still prices out the biggest available bats, like Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander, and makes names like Jurickson Profar or Alex Verdugo unlikely. However, the Twins could feasibly take their pick of the litter below that, with this wide net. We’re not talking about sexy names, but after the recent signings of first basemen Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, and Paul Goldschmidt, the pool of true first basemen available in free agency had been whittled down to a group headlined by a collection of dudes old enough to form an unironic barbershop quartet: Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Canha, and Donovan Solano. If the Twins choose to look at the expanded pool of “best bat available,” they can add hitters like outfielder Jesse Winker or infielders Jorge Polanco and Yoán Moncada to the mix. The belle of this expanded ball is probably DH-only J.D. Martinez, who has remained a valuable hitter into his late thirties. These aren’t game-changing names. That goes without saying. At least one of them probably hurt your eyes when reading. But the Twins will be adding someone, and that someone will come down to a combination of who is available in their price range and who they see as a functional hitter. In the past two seasons, they have hit a couple of times on doing just that, choosing right with Solano and Santana. One of the more frustrating aspects of this process, at least for fans, is that this addition could end up being late in the offseason, once whoever’s left’s asking prices are near the floor. But it’s better to choose from all hitters at that point, not limit oneself to a single position. It’s been reported that the team is interested in adding through trade as well, which likely allows them to access better options than those in the free-agent pool at the expense of prospects. Many fans and writers at this very site have thrown out the name Yandy Díaz of the Rays as a potential first base trade target, as the Rays have indicated that they’re listening to offers for him. However, second baseman (and occasional first baseman) Brandon Lowe, the other player whom the Rays are actively open to moving, could also be a match for the team if they’re willing to shuffle things around. Some have discussed a potential reunion with LaMonte Wade Jr., as the Giants have made the first baseman-outfielder available, but the club has also named Mike Yazstrzemski as a potential trade chip. If the Twins see him as an upgrade somewhere in the group of positions, then why not? Taylor Ward of the Angels and Alec Bohm of the Phillies also fall into this discussion, as neither seem to be full-time first basemen but could fit into the three-position group as valuable pieces. Each potential target is slated to make $10 million or less in 2025, and could fill one of the three slots most ripe for improvement. It’s a pretty simple formula. Just get a hitter and figure out the alignment later. You have your shortstop and your center fielder, and the pitching staff doesn’t have a glaring hole (unless you count a lefty reliever). Just find a bat. Any bat will do. Oh, and before you say it: yes, new ownership is also a simple way to improve the team. Beat you to it. View full article

I wrote this more in an effort to put fans’ minds at ease, but as I reread it today I’m realizing that it comes off more as a plea to the front office, especially in the title.

Some good books are clean. Some clean books are good. But just because a team’s book is clean, that doesn’t mean the organization is attractive to buyers. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Ahead of the impending sale of the Minnesota Twins, many have speculated about what the team can do today to make the organization more attractive to potential buyers. One of the most common ideas that come up is that a new owner would want clean books—no messy contracts, no back payments to aging players, or money retained in trades. Basically, there shouldn’t be money that the new guy has to deal with for the next decade whether they like it or not. However, when that general idea is extended to mean that a new owner doesn’t want any money tied up, we might be missing the point a bit. One tangible example is some fans’ opinion that a new owner wouldn’t want to sign up for paying Carlos Correa $100 million for the first three years of their regime. In that case, the team should try to flip Correa to present this hypothetical owner with clean books. This idea makes sense at the most rudimentary level: some big hotshot billionaire is in this business to make money! Don’t sign him up for spending money that he didn’t agree to! However, that’s probably not exactly how this works. You’re more likely to see the save every penny, please don’t spend my money approach from more tenured, old-school owners—or at least from owners who have owned the team for more than five years. Baltimore and Miami saw $30-$40 million spikes in their first years under new ownership. We’re much more likely to see a new owner focus more on success than an older one. Shoot, John Rubenstein is practically begging the Orioles to spend his money. Recent reports suggest Justin and Mat Ishbia have emerged as potential buyers of the team, and from their history with the Phoenix Suns, it’s not hard to imagine them taking more of a winning focus than a moneymaking focus. Of course, I could be completely wrong in this imagining, or some other rich person might buy the team, but you can use those brothers as stand-ins for this imaginary owner if you want. Would a new owner who wants to win now prefer to greenlight moves for the team in his own image? Sure. But there’s a lot that goes into that. Let’s stick with Correa, as an example. Sure, you could flip him for some modest prospect package and have his remaining $92 million off the books for 2026 and beyond. That makes the books cleaner. Do you know what it doesn’t make cleaner? Anything else. Congrats, you’ve rid yourself of that pesky All-Star shortstop. Next step? Replace that pesky All-Star shortstop on your own. You’re probably going to need to win a new bidding war. Your 2026 options are Bo Bichette and the ghost of Trevor Story. Oh, you’re okay with just finding a shortstop, and he doesn’t need to be an All-Star? You’ll have the pick of the litter between David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, and Brooks Lee—a kid who’s already slow at 24. I forget: is quickness important at shortstop? Just because a book is “clean” doesn’t mean it’s good. There are no albatross contracts on this team. The worst contract, right now, belongs to Christian Vázquez—a one-year, $10-million contract for a high-end backup catcher whom some team would likely pay for 60% of if the team wants to move him. There are no long-term deals here. There’s no Giancarlo Stanton-like contracts or Rafael Devers and Xander Boegarts-esque deals that reach into the 2030s. The Twins’ closest things to albatross contracts are Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton, the longest of which reaches into 2028. In fact, those three are the only players with guaranteed contracts past 2026, which would, in all practicality, be the new ownership group’s first year. We’ve already gone over Correa’s deal, but paying an All-Star shortstop in his early thirties that amount of money isn’t the end of the world. He needs to stay healthy, but if that’s your worst long-term contract, you have bigger fish to fry as a new ownership group. López is only under contract through 2027 and has shown the ability to be an elite pitcher. He’s stayed healthy, and he’s on a relatively team-friendly contract, compared to what pitchers of his caliber are making in free agency right now. A new owner is not getting a López-tier starter for $21.75 million right now. It is more work to get rid of him and replace him. Buxton, at this point, will likely never be fully healthy for a season. That’s part of the deal. But he’s an All-Star-caliber player when healthy, and the $15 million that he’s making each year through 2028 is not that much money compared to the rest of the league. Ahead of 2025, that’s not even a top-100 contract per year. By 2028, it will be even more insignificant. And again, those are the only three players on guaranteed contracts after 2026. Actually, I fibbed. They’re the only three contracts on the books after this year. I’m not a billionaire, but that seems pretty palatable. There’s still tons of room to maneuver and style the team as the new guy sees fit. It’s not like the three names tied up are Anthony Rendon, Miguel Cabrera, and Stephen Strasburg. These are good books. There’s a nonzero chance that moving those contracts would make the team less valuable. The elephant in the room is that it might not matter what the new owners want to do. It’s possible that the Pohlad family might have more of an eye on the money today, wanting to get down to a magical payroll level that preserves their own funds ahead of the sale. That’s a totally different thing, though. They’re not doing that for the sale's profitability or the team's medium-term outlook for a new ownership group, one that would probably prefer not to build from scratch. They’d be doing that for liquidity today, in this fictitious universe that I made up in my head. Nonetheless, fans shouldn’t be so quick to assume that the best thing for the sale of the franchise is a housecleaning on the active roster. Such efforts might do the opposite. Some good books are clean, but not all clean books are good. The books are only good if they’re setting the team up for success, and the books that have Correa, López and Buxton on them do that better than any realistic set of books without them. View full article

I hope you’re using the indefinite you here

I’m not sure that’s a good thing, but it is notable. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Sports Last Thursday, Max Kepler agreed to a $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. He’ll play his first game outside the organization he spent half his life in. The club had opportunities to trade him over the last dozen years but never pulled the trigger. After thinking on it for a while, I’m going to stand by the title of this article. Under Derek Falvey, no Twin has left the organization for no return while being better at baseball than Max Kepler. Opinions among fans vary wildly on Kepler. For most of his career, he was a good glove at a non-premium position with a low batting average but decent on-base skills and 15- to 20-homer pop in his streaky bat. His actual value and performance probably lie precisely in the middle of fans' most wild positive and negative views of him. He certainly isn't an elite player, but he wasn’t bad. At worst, he was slightly but frustratingly below average. I wrote that title myself, and I keep asking myself if I’m sure, but I really think I am. I’m not being hyperbolic. And I’ve never even been a Max Kepler guy. Beyond that, I just think it's notable. You might have other names in mind that fly in the face of that statement. Brent Rooker is a multi-time All-Star, but the Twins got Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán for him and Taylor Rogers. Luis Gil just won Rookie of the Year, but the Yankees didn’t get him for free; they had to give up Jake Cave! Yennier Cano, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, and Steven Hajjar were let go in trades. Inadvisable trades in hindsight? Yes. But they did get something back for them in the forms of Tyler Mahle and Jorge López. Sonny Gray walked for free — but the Twins got a compensation pick that they turned into Kyle DeBarge. Lance Lynn netted them Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo. LaMonte Wade Jr.? Shaun Anderson. Ryan Pressly? Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. Eduardo Escobar? Jhoan Durán and friends. Mitch Garver? Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez. Gio Urshela? Alejandro Hidalgo. Danny Coulombe? Cash. If you want to be hyperbolic or pragmatic alike, you can very well claim that some of these trades were “for nothing.” The Jorge Polanco trade may give the Twins two 2024 relief innings from Justin Topa, but I’m pedantic and will insist that that’s not nothing. It speaks to an organizational philosophy: don’t let value die on the vine or fall to the ground ripe. Teams generally have a similar idea, exercised to one degree or another, but teams toward the bottom of spending need to be good at it. They lose value when players leave in free agency. Players traded allow the organization to retain at least some of it. The best organizations find a proper balance of retaining current value to remain competitive and flipping assets to keep the organization young and healthy. Among the assets that weren’t traded, many of them had something approximating no value remaining when they left. I won’t bore you with all of the names, but here are some: Miguel Sanó, Marwin González, Logan Morrison, J.A. Happ, Kenta Maeda, and Jake Odorizzi. Some of these guys signed deals, but the writing was on the wall due to age, injury, or something else. So who is Kepler’s competition for this title? I’ve done some research and have a few names. First, there’s Eddie Rosario, who was non-tendered in 2020 with a year remaining on his contract. The Twins held on too long to get anything in return for him, and no team claimed him on waivers. He’s been all over the board in terms of performance since leaving Minnesota, but I’m listing him because of the effect he had on the Braves’ 2021 World Series. Fellow Bomba Squad teammates Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron were solid regulars for a few years after their one-off year in Minnesota (including an All-Star appearance for Cron). Both managed to play themselves out of the league in their early thirties, and both maxed out at $7.5 million in salary for any one year. One name that caught Twins fans by surprise was Kyle Gibson, who has made $50 million in the years since he was in Minnesota, though he’s only had one season below a 4.70 ERA (albeit an All-Star year). The Twins let Martín Pérez walk the same year, and he had an electric 2022 with a sub-3.00 ERA that oddly earned him no Cy Young votes, but outside of that year, he hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50. Zack Littell is a dark horse in this conversation. After being released by Minnesota, he’s bounced around a bit but has spent the last year and a half as a very solid and cheap starting pitcher for the Rays. This is an outcome few in Minnesota foresaw after three years as a long or middle reliever in Minnesota, though he was only 25 at the time he was released. The Twins have also had scares in the Rule 5 Draft over the last couple of years in Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells, but Baddoo has played his way out of Detroit, and Wells is already 30 and has struggled with health. It really seems like Derek Falvey has tried to emulate the models of successful small-market clubs, selling whenever he can, whether that be on Taylor Rogers and José Berríos or Nelson Cruz and Brian Dozier. Extensions also play a part in this, such as with Sanó or Byron Buxton. The former stayed in the organization until he wasn’t worth anything in trade. The latter may do the same, but there were rumblings at the time that Buxton was actively being shopped as the contract was negotiated. In truth, we’re working with a limited sample, as Falvey has only run the team for eight seasons, and only two of those seasons — 2018 and 2021 — saw the Twins in sell mode. Even so, they’ve made efforts to ensure the talent cycle continues. If Kepler turns in three or four more seasons as an average regular, he’s probably the best player the Twins have let walk since 2017. But I guess the question is: should he have made it this far? That’s really the kicker here, isn’t it? View full article

It’s time for the most lazy and entitled generation to finally do something for the common good. Or is that too much adulting? Image courtesy of Unsplash, Paul Hanaoka There’s an old saying: “The fans pay your salary.” It’s a very wise one typically directed at stuck up athletes who refuse to take criticism from the people who watch every single game and know team history much better than the self-centered players. It’s true. If we didn’t pay for tickets to the game, the athletes would have no salary. Let’s take it a step further. I am calling all Millennials to forgo their most sacred snack, just one time, for the good of the team. Me personally, my favorite snack is hose water and also licking the walls for that tangy lead taste, but that’s besides the point. It’s time to do some analytics. The Barnes and Noble in Edina sells avocado toast for 12 dollars, per Elon Musk’s Grok AI 2.0. If you’re eating it three times a day, then no wonder you’re not building equity, but that’s besides the point. Let’s just start with one forgone avocado toast. It’s good to start them off slow, like texting them before calling. Back in my day we just would call and say “Hi Mrs. Butz, is Seymour there?” when we wanted to talk to Seymour, but I guess times have changed. Can you imagine if Tom Kelly had to text the bullpen before calling the bullpen phone? Let’s just say there would be a lot more Jack Morrises and a lot less Blake Snells if Millennials were managing. Anyway, let’s just start with 12 dollars. Now, Dave St. Peter said with the direct-to streaming the Twins now reach 4.40 million households, up from 1.08 when they had the Ballyses’s deal. Now, obviously, not every household is filled with Millennials. But many households have a lot of them all living six people in a two bedroom hovel getting up to who knows what. But I digress. According to Google AI, approximately 21.7% of the US population is Millennials. There’s 2.5 people per household according to ChatGPT. That’s the problem with analytics because unless we’re talking Charley Sheen, there’s no half men. It should be 2 or 3, but these are the same people (Michael Lewis) who say that a player can be worth 4.6 wins, which is especially egregious when the player in question is Joey Gallo in 2022. So now we have our numbers, let’s do some math. Luckily I went to a time where they taught us math in school by memorizing time tables instead of understanding numbers like they do in Common C(rap)ore. We learned how to calculate the area of a rectangle by its hypotenuse but Millennials were told to just color the rectangle in however they felt that day. Rectangles are green and they always will be. But that's I digress. 4,400,000 households in Twins Territory times 2.5 people per household gets us a total population of 11,000,000 people in Twins Territory. Of those 11,000,000 people, 21.7% of them are Millennials, or those born between 1981 and 1996, AKA kids who didn’t go to Woodstock and grew up with the World Wide Web. So we take 11,000,000 and times it by 21.7 and we get 238,700,000 Millennials in Twins Territory. Or at least we would if we did Common C(rap) math. Or if cheap pohlad had just removed the blackout restrictions earlier so everyone in the world would be Twins fans. Instead we have to times 11,000,000 by .217 because that’s how percentages work. We get a grand total of 2,378,000 Millennials in Twins Territory. If each of those Twins Territory Millennials gave up avocado toast one time, at $12 dollars a toast, that would be a savings of $28,644,000. Boom. Payroll crunched solved. Talk about a fanbase pulling themselves up by the bootstraps. If a backend starter like Jorge Lopez can get paid 21 million from the Twins this year, imagine what 28 million gets the team. Maybe Sunny Gray. “But Gregg,” I hear you say. “Not all Millennials are baseball fans. Its too boring for their short attention spans.” That’s right but that’s a problem we need to solve. Do you think that anyone said “But I didn’t enjoy the first World War, I don’t want to help with the second”? No. They knew what Uncle Sam asked of them. And Baseball is America’s pastime, so Uncle Gregg asks you, Millennials in Twins Territory, not what your baseball team can do for you, but what you can do for your baseball team. View full article

I actually outlined that in my writeup from last year. Here’s the section on the AJ trade, accurate as of the beginning of the 2024 season: I may be a great lout, but let’s look at the Twins' own history for context. Many cite the 2003 trade that sent A.J. Pierzynski to San Francisco as the greatest heist in Twins history. Pierzynski played for the Giants for one year (0.3 WAR) and was released. In return, the Twins gained Boof Bonser (-0.2 WAR), fireballer Francisco Liriano (9.3 WAR), and the greatest closer in team history, Joe Nathan (18.4 WAR). It was undeniably a franchise-altering move that also paved the way for Joe Mauer’s ascent. It gets better, though. Nathan walked in free agency after nine seasons, and Bonser was traded for Chris Province, who never made the big leagues, but Liriano was traded in 2012. In return, the White Sox sent pitcher Pedro Hernández (-0.7 WAR) and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. Escobar had a productive seven-season career in Minnesota (5.7 WAR) and was traded in 2018 to Arizona during a deadline fire sale. The Diamondbacks returned a package that included Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad, who left the organization before reaching the majors. It also brought back hard-throwing pitching prospect Jhoan Durán (4.7 WAR). Durán will continue accumulating value for Minnesota, and the returns for Pierzynski currently add up to 37.2 WAR, which is substantial. Compared to the 0.3 WAR Pierzynski put up in San Francisco, there’s no way to take the trades as anything other than a win. However, it’s just over half of the value of the Young trade, and there’s only one piece in Minnesota still chugging along, compared to four in Tampa. The Pierzynski also took place four seasons earlier than the Young trade.

If you really want to get granular, the Delmon trade technically started with Knoblauch->Buchanan->Bartlett

Here’s a couple of left fielders who make your heart stop when a ball is lofted their way. They also share a connection. You might even say Delmon Young caused Manuel Margot. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Alright, I’m going to start this article with a warning: we’re about to get into the weeds about something that genuinely doesn’t mean anything. But isn’t that what baseball is built on? Anyway, you’ve been warned. About a year ago, on this very site, I posted a step-by-step retelling of the fallout of the 2007 trade between the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Devil Rays that sent Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza to Florida for Delmon Young. It’s now a year out of date, but it’s a good read covering what happened between 2007 and 2023 as a result of that trade. Here’s the synopsis: Delmon Young was not very good, but Bartlett and Garza were. Then Bartlett and Garza got flipped to bring more talent to Tampa, and some of that talent was flipped, and some of the resulting talent was flipped. The Rays still have seven guys in the organization who can be traced back to Young’s trade, and they’ve gained 60-some wins above replacement from those players. The Twins got approximately 1 win above replacement from Young. I’m not the first to notice this tree. There’s even a website with a handy visual that tells the story. But I do find some responsibility to serve as something of an arbiter of the math, given that my article is the third result if you Google “Delmon Young trade tree.” Toward the end of last year’s write-up, I noted that the most recent move muddied the water a bit on the trade tree. On December 16th, the Rays traded pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers for starter Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca. The Rays acquired Glasnow in a trade for Chris Archer, who was acquired in a trade for Garza, who was a member of the original Delmon Young trade. However, Margot was not a product of that trade tree, and he was the only MLB player ever included as part of a trade in the tree. That presents a bit of a conundrum for record keepers. One of the magical parts of the Delmon Young Trade Tree was that the Rays continued to flip assets for new blood almost exclusively in trades by themselves. Archer was traded for Shane Baz, Austin Meadows, and Glasnow. There were no outside players involved. Occasionally, a minor leaguer was sent out with the Rays' big leaguers, but there was never a branch that included another big leaguer. It was all clean until Margot. So what were we, the sickos who care to track these things, supposed to do? Pepiot and DeLuca’s value couldn’t be isolated to Glasnow’s return. They were the return for Glasnow and Margot. Do we only count half of their value since the other half could be attributed to the return for Margot? Surely not, because Glasnow was the headliner. Do we chop the branch off, since it’s not holy and pure? That’s not very satisfying, either. Per Baseball Reference, Pepiot and DeLuca netted 2.7 WAR for the Rays this year, and the trade was headlined by a product of the tree. You can’t just write that off. But like Gandalf riding over the horizon at sunrise, something magical happened. Before Margot had a chance to play a single game in Dodger Blue, he was traded. He was wiped from the organization. The day is saved. Eagle-eyed readers will notice something: it wasn’t just any team that rid the Dodgers of Margot — it was the Minnesota Twins. It was the ne’er-do-wells who instigated this whole story, swooping in to save the day as if they didn’t want the tale to end. And so Margot was excised from the tree entirely — or was he? Yes, the Dodgers didn’t keep him, but he was still acquired for a prospect that the Twins valued — infielder Noah Miller. How do we solve this? I’m willing to squint and take artistic liberties and view this as a three-team trade. Minnesota acquired Margot and Rayne Doncon. Los Angeles acquired Glasnow and Miller. Tampa Bay acquired Pepiot and DeLuca. Everyone is happy. But here’s the next question: does Margot appear on the ledger of the Delmon Young Trade Tree on the side of the Twins? The Twins haven’t accumulated any value since the mid-2010s. It would be great to include another player on the Twins’ side, allowing them to recoup a little value. I mean, Margot was ostensibly traded from Tampa to Minnesota in the Glasnow trade. It only makes sense. Here’s the kicker: including Margot actually makes the Delmon Young trade worse. Remember the 1 WAR the Twins gained from Young’s tenure in Minnesota? It’s almost all negated by Margot’s -0.9 WAR in 2024. The Twins simply cannot catch a break. This required too much brain power to mull over. I don’t even want to start on whether Noah Miller’s potential MLB career should now be counted as value lost by the Twins in the Delmon Young trade. All I can do at this point is pray that Rayne Doncon turns into something. View full article

Trying to hide a guy in the bullpen for an entire year is a little tricky, but this Twins bullpen is built to do just that. In fact, they almost needed a guy like Eiberson Castellano at this point. Image courtesy of Reading Fightin Phils The Twins' bullpen is exciting this season, at least on paper. Before making a single addition, the corps ranks first in FanGraphs’s WAR projection for the 2025 season. Now, obviously, that comes with the caveat that the game is played on the field, not on a spreadsheet, and all that. But it is a sign of both the depth and the star power of this pen. Enter Eiberson Castellano. The Twins picked Castellano in the Rule 5 Draft last week. He comes to Minnesota with some potential to be a starter (with a three-pitch mix), but the Twins will surely use him out of the bullpen for the time being. As a Rule 5 draftee, he needs to stay on the active roster or MLB injured list for the full season, so the 23-year-old with 40 innings above Single-A will probably be used in low-leverage as much as the Twins can manage. The club has also commented that the newest Twin will be deployed as a multi-inning reliever. This role keeps him somewhat stretched out, which is vital for his development as a starter (assuming they have any hopes that he can continue to start after 2025). But having a long reliever will also help keep the rest of the guys fresh. Let’s talk briefly about the rest of the guys. Right now, the Twins have seven other relievers who appear to be locks in the bullpen picture for one reason or another: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcala, Justin Topa, and Michael Tonkin. That’s not including arms like Louie Varland, Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez (who is already out of options), or the inevitable breakout minor league signing, (Did you see they signed an old friend from the Jaime Garcia trade, Huascar Ynoa last week?) Even someone like Matt Canterino could play a role. The first six names mentioned are reasonably potential setup guys, at minimum. You’d feel fine seeing any of those six in the seventh inning, and Durán and Jax are a couple of the top relievers in baseball. Tonkin is a rubber arm middle reliever. Of course, it would be nice if one of those seven was left-handed, but a good arm is a good arm. So what do you add to that mix? Someone who can eat innings when the game isn’t on the line—several at a time. Tonkin can carry some of that load, but it would also be beneficial not to have to burn A-bullpen arms when the game is out of reach or a starter exits early. Some may point to such failed bullpen setups as the 2021 Twins, during which the team tried to carry Randy Dobnak as a long reliever but couldn’t find enough work for him. That’s probably the most significant risk in carrying a completely unproven rookie and trying to hide him for six months. However, it’s likely easier to get by having the six guys the Twins have over the likes of 2021 Alex Colome and Hansel Robles. Beyond that, they were actively trying to find Dobnak work—given that he was also their sixth starter on the depth chart—whereas the team probably won’t shed a tear if Castellano goes a week without pitching. Now, though, instead of sending Alcala or Sands to throw 50 pitches in relief, that can be Castellano’s job. None of the arms that you prefer in close games need to stretch out to just cover innings. Tonkin (and his propensity to suck up innings like a Hoover) helps, but having a dedicated guy you can run out there helps more in a bullpen with this much back-end talent than it would in some other bullpens. Put another way, the Twins are better served with Castellano in their bullpen than they would be finding a veteran middle reliever or another setup man to add to the mix. Every inning that Castellano eats is an inning that doesn’t disqualify another pitcher from throwing tomorrow, and if he throws multiple innings, that might be multiple back-end arms preserved for another day. Then you can add in the potential long-term benefit—the club has reportedly loved Castellano for a while, and he might have a real future in the organization if he can survive the season. But of course, that’s next year. There are some obvious caveats. There are questions in the top six—Stewart and Topa’s health, Alcala’s struggles late in 2024, a lack of an extensive track record for Sands and Topa, rumors that Jax might move to the starting rotation, and Durán’s diminished fastball velocity. But show me an MLB team and I’ll show you a bullpen that gives fans a stomach ache for one reason or another. It would be great if someone, anyone, in this mix was a lefty as well. Castellano might also just not be good enough right now (or ever) to keep his ERA below 6.00. On the other hand, the Twins do have depth. There are arms in the organization that probably deserve a shot at being in the pen, and it’s not hard to imagine guys like Varland, Canterino, or even Connor Prielipp being arms the team would feel comfortable with from the seventh inning on, and some of those guys are lefties. And if Castellano doesn’t make the cut, so be it. I’m sure the Phillies would accept him back for the $50,000, and the Twins could pivot from there. However, if there’s a bullpen that could benefit from a true long reliever, it’s the one that the Twins have constructed this season. And it doesn’t hurt to have a guy literally locked into that spot. View full article

I read Intangibles a couple years ago, and it’s a great summary of some really good studies with some insightful commentary from athletes and coaches. A great book and especially approachable if you’re first starting to ask yourself questions like “what is team chemistry.” I’d recommend it to any sports fan.

I'm gonna need more constructive feedback than that if you have any hopes of me improving my writing.

I don’t wade into the Bauer topic but I think this is the time I’m going to break the rule because it’s relevant to the conversation. I’m going to paste a Twitter thread I wrote a year and a half ago about Aroldis Chapman because the ideas carry over here and it shows how there are levels, grades, and flavors to this topic. See below: ““If there are character or personality flaws that detract from that, understandable.” Let’s talk about that. There are a lot of dirtbags on your favorite team already, it’s just how it works. [Chapman’s transgressions] is something ******* else. Having highly competitive millionaires who have been famous for a long time breeds dirtbaggery. You deal with a certain level no matter what. Everyone knows it, and it can cause insignificant to severe interpersonal strife, depending on who each party is. However, when you’re talking about a guy who did that to his girlfriend, he’s always going to be “that guy who [Chapman’s transgressions]” in some teammates’ eyes. You might even be able to debate whether that’s right or wrong, but it’s the truth. It probably doesn’t lead to direct conflict. If he shows up in the clubhouse, your favorite player (who is of course the paragon of kindness and virtue) isn’t waiting there with a sign that says “No Aroldises Allowed.” But it’s immovably buried in at least some teammates’ minds. It sits dormant until something goes wrong. Bad loss, bad performance, card game, whatever. There are many people who will not come to that guy’s defense. They’re primed not to. In their minds, he’s irredeemable. It doesn’t matter if it’s related to baseball, they won’t like him. And liking someone, always having every teammates’ back, etc. isn’t something that’s necessary, but you never know what those feelings could lead to, especially in the heat of the moment. These are unnecessary impediments to team success, even if they are overcome.”

So Herr didn’t have the Bad Clubhouse Guy label, and yet he didn’t match with the team, and by accounts actively made it worse. That seems like an argument to consider each guy individually. Young didn’t have many positive reports from the clubhouse, that’s for sure—but do we know anything about what that caused on the field?

That’s actually a really interesting topic this vein—was Tommy Herr regarded as a “bad clubhouse guy”? Or was it a more situational issue where this guy in particular served as an obstacle for this team in particular?

Trust me, Doc, I am one of the biggest proponents of clubhouse chemistry being a real thing that you’re going to find. I believe it’s 100% real and is a real factor in clubs not reaching their peak performance level, both at the individual- and team-level (I’ve written about things like leadership, cohesion, and conflict on this site before). My contention here is that we’re too quick to oversimplify our discussions about guys with the “bad clubhouse guy” label without asking what specifically this guy in particular might do to detract from performance on the field. I appreciate your thoughts here, and we’re not that far off (I would first just change the order of your reasons not to sign them to 3, 2, 1)

I don’t want to do that

These two guys have reputations that precede them, and they may have earned them. However, does it mean what everyone thinks it means, and can smart teams take advantage of the ways in which it doesn't? Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images The Twins are notorious among their own fans for bargain hunting over the offseason, and this offseason has turned that dial to 11. As we bandy about names, some inevitably get dismissed with a firm “I don’t want him in the clubhouse.” But Bad Clubhouse Guy™️ is a label that borders on being a heuristic. Let’s take a look at two potential discount-bin signings the Twins might be interested in (after the all-but-inevitable trades of Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez, of course). Yasmani Grandal If the Twins do indeed trade Vázquez for salary relief, they’re probably going to need to reallocate some of his money toward a new, veteran backup catcher. They have shown little confidence in rookie Jair Camargo to this point and seem to prefer that he remain in the next-man-up role. Grandal is one high-profile candidate for a one-year, low-cost deal. Grandal has a reputation as a defensive wizard, most prominently in his otherworldly framing ability. That checks one box for a backup catcher. Honestly, that’s probably the biggest box. But Grandal can also swing it a bit—not as well as he did a few years ago when he was the platonic ideal of a three-true-outcome hitter, but he’s never had a worse year at the plate than Vazquez did the past two seasons. He’s also a switch-hitter and performed better against righties last season, which can be beneficial for pairing him with righty Ryan Jeffers. However, Grandal has earned himself a bit of a reputation. He’s generally been perceived as a prickly guy, which isn’t the greatest trait for a catcher. He also allegedly hit Tim Anderson in the face when they were both members of the 2023 White Sox, perhaps the most dysfunctional clubhouse in modern times. That’s enough to scare some people off. I mean, if it’s true, he punched a teammate and potentially brings a stink. Tommy Pham Pham’s story is one of the funniest in recent memory, but let’s talk about why he fits the Twins. He’s a right-handed corner outfielder. Yep, that’s the whole deal. The Twins love to platoon, and Pham, a 36-year-old 11-year veteran, can do that—ur at least he did until 2024, a year in which we saw a dropoff that might scare some teams off. However, teams are probably more scared off by the other things. In no particular order, Tommy Pham has been stabbed outside a gentlemen’s club; slapped Joc Pederson over a fantasy football dispute; gotten into arguments with fans on the field; said some out-of-pocket things to the media and on his social media; and publicly disrespected his former teammates for not working hard enough. That’s a bit of baggage. That’s enough baggage that might lead a fan or executive alike to say “How about not; what’s Adam Duvall up to?” Yet, Pham has remained employed since 2014. Grandal is likewise in the twilight of a 13-year career, and he keeps getting jobs. What is a Bad Clubhouse Guy, Anyway? I mean, that’s the million-dollar question (literally). We tend to throw this singular label around (or some variant, such as clubhouse cancer) pretty liberally, to describe a wide range of behaviors and personalities. But bad clubhouse guys aren’t all created equal. Just look at Grandal and Pham. Their cardinal sins are hitting someone in the face, but there’s a huge difference between the two stories. Grandal allegedly smacked a teammate in the face, whereas Pham smacked an opponent. But the context for both matters, as well, as Grandal was a member of one of the worst clubhouses in recent memory, and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to figure out why someone might want to hit Anderson. (Ask José Ramírez for confirmation.) Pham slapped a man over fantasy football waiver-wire shenanigans. Obviously, if given the choice between two players with the exact same skills and contract, you’re going to go with the one without the questionable behavior. But how much do those factors actually matter in the grand scheme of things? For instance, despite his foibles, Pham has been lauded as an excellent teammate. He’s a hard worker, blunt in his honest feedback for his teammates and coaches, and a sparkplug. He's unselfish, to the point that he eschewed a chance to collect five hits in a World Series game by asking to be pinch-hit for late in Game 2 of the 2023 Fall Classic. The plate appearance he conferred upon Jace Peterson was the only one Peterson would get in the Series. There are players like this across sports. One of my favorite examples is Stephen Jackson of the NBA—the second guy to run into the stands to fight fans during 2004’s Malice at the Palace incident. The man was a nuisance on the court and has a lengthy rap sheet that includes a felony. Yet, his teammates loved him. He was a ride-or-die teammate who played 14 years and won a championship. He was the second guy into the stands that night because he had an outnumbered teammate (in Ron Artest) to defend. Obviously, you do not want those things to happen with someone on your team, but you’d probably prefer a player like that over a player who released a video of his teammate admitting to cheating on his wife (Wolves fans: if you know you know). There are any number of behaviors that can saddle a player with a label like that. Social scientists have attempted to quantify these locker-room or clubhouse dynamics. For example, Cope and colleagues did a study in 2011 that attempted to identify informal roles on athletic teams and three negative roles emerged—cancer, distracter, and malingerer. Cancers pollute the locker room with negative emotion. Distracters somehow take focus away from the team and toward themselves, often away from the field of play. Malingerers keep themselves off the field due to injury longer than they need to. Each of these three roles has a different effect on the team. If even the stuffy social scientists can identify that there are levels and flavors to negative behavior on a sports team, there must be something there. Is the player going to ruin his teammates’ days? Is he a candidate to miss games due to off-field choices? All of these questions are worth asking. Ask any scout what he sees as a bad makeup guy, and you’ll end up with as many questions as answers. That lack of a cohesive answer only adds to the tendency to group every player with one negative trait or incident into one single bucket. Instead of slapping the same label on every guy, a team should ask themselves what the possible range of consequences to this guy might be. It’s enough to drive guys’ prices down just to have the label, and a team that can recognize which red flags are true dangers can benefit. Nor is it fair to assume that any of us—ball player, ne'er-do-well blogger, insurance company CEO, anyone—are the same person in all situations and settings. They call it clubhouse chemistry because there are real interactions that change the people involved, personally and professionally. Not every person who runs into or creates trouble in one place will do the same in another. At the very least, the primary rationale for being against a signing of a Grandal or Pham should be their talent level—so long as we don’t have true, consequential negative traits beyond “he’s kinda a hothead.” Of course, it’s also worth factoring in the team’s context. One of the prevailing storylines for the 2018 Twins was that there were too many strong personalities and disgruntled players in the clubhouse. We ourselves will never know what’s going on behind closed doors, but it can be a legitimate concern. However, if a team like the Twins believes that they have the infrastructure to deal with a player who isn’t a walk in the park, let’s have at it. There were some rumored problems in the clubhouse at the end of last year that could lead to trepidation about adding another big personality whose performance isn’t a needle-mover, but we should all at least be open to the possibility without pulling out the same Bad Guy stamp every time. View full article

Hey wait a minute that's my line!