Greggory Masterson

The Twins have an off-day today, so you know what that means. Sweet Lou Hennessy and Greggory Masterson are joined by Melissa Berman to go over a long 13-game stretch of Twins baseball. Between the highs and lows, they discuss the torrid pace of Carlos Correa's and Royce Lewis's bats, the release of the Twins City Connect jerseys, and Friday's postgame Flo Rida concert. There's also an Immaculate Gregg! Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

The following is an excerpt from the 2024 Gregg Media Guide, a 35-page lighthearted collection of essays, player profiles, a prospect list, and more that I penned prior to the 2024 season. The opening essay was the most serious piece of writing, as it's something that I've thought a lot about over the last year, even if it might not make sense to everyone. I've decided to post it here, in case anyone else finds it interesting. ~~~~ I’m being serious. I kind of miss 0-18. If you are deep enough in the weeds to purchase the Gregg Media Guide, you already know that the Twins broke an 18-game streak of playoff losses that spanned from 2004 to 2023. During that time, despite their success in the AL Central (five division titles and a Wild Card berth), they were utterly futile. It was embarrassing. But it was also kind of funny. And kind of remarkable. And you almost got used to it. Let’s get the first one out of the way. Despite being a diehard Twins fan for my entire life, I’ve been known to identify myself as a bit of a sports nihilist. I don’t take it personally when the team plays poorly. I almost find it weird to root for the team. But I still love the Twins. I also love a good storyline. One of my favorite characters in The Simpsons is Ol’ Gil Gunderson, a consistently down-on-his-luck victim of the rat race. No matter what job Ol’ Gil has worked himself into in any given episode, the consistent theme is that he’s not good at it and/or he’ll be screwed by the world in some way. It’s sad, but it’s also so funny to see how Ol’ Gil will manage to screw it up this week. Admittedly, many fans of The Simpsons are not fans of Gil for one reason or another. Much in the same way, few Twins fans found joy in the Twins year after year fustily letting the season slip through their fingers. Well, some rejoiced in it, but many of those seemed to be more fueled by their love-hate relationship with the team, whether that be a disdain for ownership, analytics, or any other pet peeve. It was like a clown car’s breaks being cut on the Audubon. You know it’s a tragedy, and people are going to be hurt, so you hope they navigate it safely into the ditch, but you also know it would be funny if 11 clowns flew through the windshield, in a shocking, horrifying, but hilarious way. Beyond the humor of it, there was something remarkable about the streak. It had never happened before. Other things that had never happened before at some point: No one had ever hit 765 homers, no one had ever had 262 hits in a season, and no one had ever stolen 1406 bases. But then they happened, and that was special. You will probably never see another team lose 18 straight postseason games—in any sport. It’s literally the longest playoff losing streak in the history of North American men’s pro sports. I hope you can appreciate that. They say that every day you can go to the ballpark and see something you’ve never seen before. In a sad and comical way, the Twins etched their names into baseball history and folklore. Chris Hanel put together a terrific oral history and movie documenting each of the losses in order. He used win expectancy charts to explain just how improbable it was that a team could pull this off. It required snatching defeat from the jaws of victory several times, with many games in which the Twins had a win expectancy over 90%. I encourage you to check it out if you haven’t, or re-watch it in hindsight. Around the same time that Chris’s movie was released, I wrote a 5000 word narrative about the concept of a streak that lasted 19 years. By my math, in the 18 losses, over 100 individual Twins played in a playoff game for the team. The general manager was changed four times, there were three managers, and three separate Pohlads stood as the face of the ownership group during that time. No Twin played in more than four of the seven playoff series, and five distinct cores of talent moved through the organization between wins. It was special. Maybe not in the way you’d hope, but it was remarkable. And it only got more and more remarkable as each loss piled up. We could have seen an 0-20, and we were robbed of it. Finally, I got used to the streak. Not in a Stockholm syndrome way, but more in an acclimation. It’s what I grew to see the Twins as, and many inside and outside of Twins Territory did as well. And so now it’ll take some getting used to. It’s now feasible that the Twins could make a run. The monkey is off their backs. I saw them win for the first time in nigh on 20 years. It’s awesome. But it’ll take some getting used to. Who knows, maybe they’ll be able to play the Yankees heads-up now, breaking that funk as well. Maybe they’ll have a playoff team that doesn’t always come with the “best team in a bad division” qualifier. But, maybe, they’re also just now a normal team with nothing special about them. People paid attention to 0-18. In the same way, they paid attention to the Mariners’ two-decade playoff drought. People pay attention to the Rockies having never won the NL West. People pay attention to the poverty operations of the Athletics. But the Twins? They’re just another consistently mediocre to solid team now. They sit among teams like the Blue Jays, Brewers, and Diamondbacks now. There’s not a lot to laugh at, but also not a lot of history. No one is going to be rallying the troops behind the plucky team with 12, 13, or 16 straight losses taking on the Evil Empire Yankees or Astros. The Twins, who have always struggled to break out of obscurity, return to the tier of teams that are just that: teams. And so there’s an adjustment to be made. 0-18 is over. There could always be a new streak. It would be funny, special, and noteworthy if they went and won a World Series. The same goes for if they rattled off 10 more straight playoff losses and 2023 was a blip. But for now, they’re another mid-market team with a mid-market payroll. I’m glad they broke the streak. I shed a couple manly tears as I sat in my office alone watching it on a 19-inch TV screen that I’ve had since they were on a nine game losing streak. But I kind of miss it. Thank you for ordering the Gregg Media Guide. I don’t take much seriously, but I do hope that it’s worth your time and money to read through this and have, at least, a few chuckles along the way. Greggory. (if you'd like to purchase the full GMG for as little as $2, here's the link, hopefully the owners don't fire me for this. https://greggtmasterson1.gumroad.com/).

Much speculation has already been thrown out, about the Twins going fishing for Miami's Jesús Luzardo ahead of the trade deadline next month. Do the Marlins have any other useful pieces that the Twins could reel in? Image courtesy of © David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports The trade deadline is roughly seven weeks away, and although the Twins have been up and down this year, they’re in position to fight for a Wild Card berth in the American League, at a minimum. As such, they may be buyers. It’s worth looking around the league to get familiar with some players who might become Twins by August. Let’s dive into Miami’s roster and see if there’s anything there. Miami is currently 23-43, and far out of contention. They’ve already shipped off Luis Arráez to San Diego, and we’ve already had a story on Jesús Luzardo at Twins Daily. What else might the Twins be able to salvage off this sinking Miami ship? Other Starters Derek Falvey has shown a preference for acquiring starting pitchers via trade who have more than one year of team control (Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez), despite breaking that rule on a couple of occasions (Jaime García, Anthony DeSclafani). Given that a deadline deal would probably be for a mid-rotation starter or better, it’d be safe to assume that the Twins would be looking for a starter with multiple years of control, if they are shopping. Miami has a few. Trevor Rogers Rogers is a left-handed, 26-year-old 2021 All-Star, under team control through 2026—two and a half years. He utilizes a fastball-changeup-sinker-slider mix. The bad news is that he hasn’t been good since 2021, and currently has a 5.68 ERA. His underlying metrics don’t look good, either, as he isn’t striking many opponents out, and he’s surrendering too many walks. He also missed most of last year with a lat tear. Twins fans, stop me if you’ve heard this before, but if the Twins can get him back to his 2021 form, he can be a weapon for them in the playoff rotation, with two more years of control. He’s also only making $1.5 million this season, which would make ownership happy. If he’s available, the price might be something like a small package centered around Gabriel González or Tanner Schobel. Braxton Garrett Garrett is also a 26-year-old lefty with a low salary (currently making the minimum), off to a slow start. However, he’s under team control through 2028, and he had a very good 2023, with a 3.66 ERA (126 ERA+) and 3.68 FIP in 160 innings. Repeating that performance would entrench him in the top half of the Twins rotation this season. Garrett started this season late, as he’s been dealing with shoulder soreness, which should be something to keep an eye on. If you’re interested in his services, maybe search his name over the next month to monitor the shoulder. He also had Tommy John surgery in 2017 and missed time with a 2022 oblique injury, so (as with every pitcher) there’s some risk that he won't really hold up until 2028. The Twins are aware of that, but between the team control and 2023 performance, the Marlins would probably be seeking a package that starts with Brooks Lee and also includes at least one player from the González-to-Marco Raya range. Other names to be aware of include Edward Cabrera, yet another 26-year-old. The righty is currently on the IL with a shoulder impingement and has lost a lot of time to injury since his 2021 debut, but he’s flashed the potential to be a solid starter when healthy. Ryan Weathers has been their top starter this season, but has a ton of team control left (driving up his price) and little success outside of his first 12 starts this season. Both of them would probably command a prospect package somewhere between those commanded for Rogers and Garrett. Relievers A majority of Falvey’s deadline acquisitions have been relievers (Jorge López, Michael Fulmer, Sergio Romo, Sam Dyson, Gabriel Moya), so it wouldn’t be surprising if there was a trade for a bullpen arm on the horizon. He’s also been open to trading for closers and quality middle relievers. Whom do the Marlins have? Miami has a few solid relievers who likely wouldn’t crack the late-inning group for the Twins of Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart. The Marlins closer, Tanner Scott, is solid but not great, with a 1.50 ERA but a 3.97 FIP. Last year, his ERA and FIP matched better, at 2.31 and 2.17, respectively, and he could probably slot into a sixth- or seventh-inning role in the playoffs. He’s also on an expiring contract, lowering his value to a prospect in the 8-20 range like José Salas. However, the Twins have been reluctant to expend much in return for a one-year return (though the exception has been relievers like Fulmer and Romo). As for multi-year options, lefties Andrew Nardi and A.J. Puk still have several years of team control left. Nardi, age 25, is likely the more costly player, with four more years after 2024, but he may be a better option this season than the Twins have in Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, and Kody Funderburk. Puk is a few years older and only has two years of control after 2024. He’s struggled mightily this year, but if he straightens out over the next two months to where he was in 2022 and 2023, he could also be a reliable lefty—either a low-end number one or high-end number two in a playoff pen. The Marlins also have righty relievers like Huascar Brazoban, Declan Cronin, or old friend Calvin Faucher, who might be competent regular-season arms, but it would be hard to put money on them in the middle innings of a playoff game. Instead, many prefer those innings go to internal players like Jorge Alcalá, but if there was a rash of bullpen injuries, sure, maybe. Hitters Right now, it seems like the Twins could use a competent bat to shore up first base, left field, or designated hitter. They have internal options to fill those spots (e.g., Trevor Larnach, José Miranda, Carlos Santana), but bringing in a more proven bat would definitely calm some nerves. Unfortunately, the Marlins don’t have many of those, with only Jazz Chisholm Jr., Otto Lopez, and Josh Bell hitting at an above-average clip this season. Chisholm likely isn’t going anywhere, and Lopez has 103 career plate appearances. However, if you want a name to watch: Josh Bell Like the old gray mare, Bell ain’t what he used to be. The former All-Star is a few years removed from his last very good season in Washington. He was an average hitter last season—about on par with Santana this season—and he’s dropped off a bit more in 2024 (101 OPS+). However, if he gets it going and can get himself up to something around a 110 OPS+ and (or?) the Twins see a tweak he could make, he could solidify the power positions that have been so unstable. You can decide for yourself how likely that is. Oh, they’d also probably need to pick up some salary. The Marlins don’t have anyone who will turn the Twins' season around, but they do have some players with the potential to be contributors on a good team in the right roles. If the Twins are looking more to conserve resources and improve around the margins, they could get together with the Marlins, as they have done a number of times in the past few years. Do any of these options entice you? View full article

Not even two plunkings Sunday can force Willi Castro out of the lineup. He leads off again Monday night, and has played in every Twins game of the season so far. He’s gone from an afterthought to leading the team in plate appearances in a year and a half. Huh? Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Willi Castro has managed to become a legitimate super-utility player, playing in each of the team’s first 66 games at six different positions—something almost unheard of under manager Rocco Baldelli. And he’s doing a great job at it. Castro’s emergence as a bench weapon in 2023 is pretty well-documented. He started the year as the 13th man on a bench already facing injury trouble, which necessitated his addition. He had initially signed a minor league contract after being non-tendered by the Tigers as a 24-year-old. He had some experience at second base, shortstop, third base, and left field at that point, and he was quick. He was a sensible emergency fill-in at multiple spots and could steal a bag when needed. That’s a fine 13th man. Over the season, he took on a super-utility role, in a sense, and enabled all of Rocco Baldelli’s shenanigans. His utility was primarily his ability to balance out the roster on a game-to-game basis. Approximately a quarter of his appearances were off the bench as a pinch runner, pinch hitter, or defensive replacement. Even in games he started, he often switched positions--more than 40 times during the year. Because of his flexibility, Baldelli could make nearly any substitution he wanted. This season, though, it’s been a different story. Through Sunday, Castro had started 61 of the team’s 65 games, and he played at some point in all of them. He’s still been flexible in-game, moving positions 17 times in those 65 games, but he’s been a consistent starter—and at several different positions. That’s new. Following injuries to Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton, Castro has taken over as the primary option at third base (10 starts), shortstop (17 starts), and center field (16 starts), respectively. After Edouard Julien’s demotion, he will likely continue to be the everyday guy at second base (four starts thus far). He’s also started in left field 14 times, primarily in Baldelli Special™ platoon lineups. Although he was a prominent utility player in 2023, he’s developed into the Platonic ideal of a super-utility guy this year—playing all but first base, catcher, and right field (even pitching in garbage time). He’s an everyday player with positional flexibility. It’s a treat for a manager to know that there’s someone competent who can be turned to in any situation. Castro has mostly held up his end of the bargain. He hasn’t been as good on the basepaths as in 2023, but he’s been fine defensively in every spot (though he’s a bit stretched in center and at short), and he’s hit about 15 percent above league average. That’s a legitimate MLB starter, and he can be plugged in wherever needed. This degree of versatility is very, very rare. If Castro plays even three more games in left field, he'll become just the fourth player ever to play at least 20 times at left, center, shortstop, and third base. The other three are a fun collection, including one very familiar name. Query Results Table Player Season Age Team G PA R H HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ José Hernández 1998 28 CHC 149 533 76 124 23 75 4 6 40 140 .254 .311 .471 .782 100 César Tovar 1968 27 MIN 157 673 89 167 6 47 35 13 34 41 .272 .326 .372 .698 107 Tony Kubek 1957 21 NYY 127 475 56 128 3 39 6 6 24 48 .297 .335 .381 .716 97 Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. Generated 6/10/2024. If Julien stays in the minors long enough for Castro to make 14 more appearances at second (he's made six, in total, so far), he'd be the first person ever, in any major league, to show up 20 times at those five positions in a single campaign. This more prominent role probably hamstrings Baldelli a bit, as he is no longer able to, for instance, deploy Castro strategically as a pinch-runner, where he was 33-for-38 in stolen-base attempts last year. Baldelli would also likely prefer to have his everyday players healthy and playing every day at their natural positions, giving Castro a bit more rest (at least one day off a month might be nice), using him as a bench weapon more often, and allowing Castro to be used to give players a breather rather than filling a void. Castro’s prevalence is also an indictment on the other reserves employed by the Twins. Manuel Margot and Kyle Farmer were recently everyday players at center field and shortstop, respectively. Many had assumed that Margot would be the top reserve outfielder, and Farmer would be the top reserve infielder. Instead, both have been reduced almost entirely to platoon bats against left-handed pitchers, and both have moved down the defensive spectrum, as Margot is primarily a corner outfielder and Farmer is primarily a second baseman. If Margot and Farmer played better this year, there would not nearly be as much time for Castro. Instead, Castro has received the lion’s share of injury fill-in time, and he’s also received most of the bench plate appearances against right-handed starters (in addition to typically starting in left field versus lefties). He’s made the most of his everyday time, with the team's fifth-highest OPS+ (114). Baldelli has asked him to do more and more this season, and he’s answered the bell. Hopefully, by the end of the year, the lineup will be a bit more solidified and healthy, and he’ll be able to be deployed strategically more often. But for right now, he’s become a real 10th man; an everyday starter with positional flexibility; an asset. View full article

No I think it was by Smashmouth

We're gonna (have) win Twins, we're gonna (did) score. Let's talk about this off-day! Sweet Lou Hennessy, Cody Schoenmann, and Greggory Masterson are joined by the pride of Twins Daily Nick Nelson to go over the Twins recent 7-3 stretch. They also react to and analyze Edouard Julien's demotion, and Gregg bemoans the institution of interleague play. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

As Kyle Farmer’s struggles have dragged on, he’s being asked to do less and less. It doesn’t bode well for the veteran infielder, with younger and more promising infielders nearing a return to the roster. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Kyle Farmer had the best year of his career in 2023. As the primary backup infielder, he was a league-average hitter who filled in at shortstop, second base, and third base for prolonged stretches. He was also the other half of rookie Edouard Julien, subbing for him against lefties and ending games as a defensive replacement—both facets of the game Julien struggled with. Twins brass was hopeful that he’d fill a similar role in 2024, as they signed him to a contract with a mutual option for 2025 that guaranteed him $6.5 million this year. Unfortunately, no part of the run-it-back plan has worked out. In 2023, Farmer had three distinct duties that made up his role: Be the top reserve at second base, third base, and shortstop; Platoon with Julien (or Nick Gordon) as a starter or pinch-hitter; and Be a late-inning defensive replacement at second. Over the first third of this season, that role has slowly been reduced. The first indication came after Royce Lewis’s Opening Day injury. With third base open, the Twins turned to Willi Castro over Farmer. Farmer didn’t start a game at third base until the fifth game of the season and started only two games at third in the team's first 10 games. Then, Carlos Correa was placed on the injured list in mid-April. Farmer—traded for to be the starting shortstop ahead of 2023—was forced into everyday action at... third base. The Twins slid Castro over to shortstop, a position at which many question Castro’s efficacy. During Correa’s 16-game absence, Farmer started 10 games—seven at third, two at second, and just one at shortstop. Castro getting the nod over him at third made some sense—Castro has the better bat, and a team can reasonably opt for more offense, especially when trying to fill the hole left by Lewis. But when both third base and shortstop were vacant, and Farmer primarily slotted in at third, that seemed to speak to how the Twins view his glove. But surely they still trust him over notorious butcher Julien at second? Not so fast, partner. Julien must have spent his winter working with Ozzie Smith, because he’s improved his defense by leaps and bounds. The former surefire candidate for a move to either first base or DH is grading out pretty well by the eye test and elite by the statistics (4 Outs Above Average, though with a weak arm). So, the Twins have ceased using Farmer as a second-base defensive substitution. He has not come in as a straight defensive substitution a single time this season. He has pinch-hit and finished the game at second base 10 times—but that’s more related to platoon matchups than to his defensive prowess. It should be noted that he has retained his role as the top reserve at second. The only other player to play second base this season (other than Julien) is Austin Martin, who was moved there mid-game once and is currently in the minor leagues. Farmer still appears to be the first alternate at the spot, which counts for something. Farmer resumed his role as a defensive replacement, for a stretch, but at third base. The primary third baseman over the past month, José Miranda, is not lauded for his defense at the hot corner. Seven times this season, Farmer’s entered the game as a straight defensive substitution for Miranda in the late innings. However, even that role also seems to be on its way out, as Manuel Margot has entered the game twice in the last week to bump Castro from the outfield to third base. It’s only happened a couple of times, but that pattern would seem to suggest a preference for Castro’s defense at third (to disastrous results, on Monday against Kansas City). At this point, Farmer has been relegated to merely being Julien's top backup second baseman and platoon partner. He’s only started 24 of the team’s first 55 games—12 at second (all against lefties), 11 at third (filling in for Lewis and Correa), and one at short (filling in for Correa). At this point, he’s effectively 2019 Jonathan Schoop—a right-handed reserve second baseman—without the luxury of Luis Arráez’s flexibility, as Julien is almost exclusively a second baseman. But Schoop also had an advantage over Farmer: he was hitting in 2019. After 55 team games and 101 plate appearances, Farmer has a .514 OPS (50OPS+). His underlying metrics are in the cellar. And he isn’t doing the one thing he’s being counted on for—hitting lefties. He’s even worse against lefties than overall, with a .505 OPS in 46 plate appearances. Admittedly, this is a small sample, but such is the nature of these discussions. Farmer has carved out a career for himself, but the ceiling was never high. Now, his role has been whittled away, and he hasn’t succeeded in the only real responsibility he has left. For a Rocco Baldelli team, that might be a problem. The skipper loves having flexibility and distinct roles for everyone on the team, making use of their abilities, but Farmer isn’t showing those traits this year. Furthermore, Royce Lewis is bound to return any day, and global top-100 prospect Brooks Lee is also nearing major-league readiness. The infield is getting crowded, and Farmer’s utility has diminished considerably. There have been many questions about what the move to accommodate the reinstatement of Lewis will be, but maybe the Twins have been telegraphing it to us the whole time. Without Farmer, they would need to figure out who Julien’s backup is (Castro, Lee, Martin, etc.), but many other options have more utility now. Farmer is well-respected in the clubhouse, but it really seems like he’s being squeezed out of a role right now. View full article

At this time last year, it would be unthinkable. You’d be laughed out of the room for even suggesting such an idea. But Max Kepler is making a case for a qualifying offer from the Twins this offseason. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler's OPS is 100 points above the anemic league average, and he’s playing his standard plus defense in right field. Kepler has continued the hot stretch that started in the second half of 2023, and there’s an argument that he should receive an offer from the Twins of over $20 million to play right field next year. Let’s break down that argument, in four parts. What is a Qualifying Offer? Let’s start with the technical mumbo-jumbo. A qualifying offer (QO) is a measure put in place to give teams a bit of a cushion when a top player is hitting free agency. Any team about to lose a player who has been on the team for a full year can extend a QO to the player on the way out, as long as he has not previously received one. The amount of that offer is set each year as the average of the top 125 salaries the previous year. It’d be safe to assume that this fall's number would be around $21 million. If an impending free agent is offered a QO, they have a decision: accept it—and return to the team for one year—or decline it and hit free agency. However, there’s a catch. If they do hit free agency, there will be compensation attached to them. The signing team will lose a draft pick, at minimum. The former team receives a compensatory draft pick after the first, second, or fourth rounds. Sonny Gray rejected the QO this offseason, and the Twins have the 33rd pick in the draft to show for it. How Well Does Kepler Need to Play to Earn a Qualifying Offer? That’s the (20-)million-dollar question. Kepler is playing at an All-Star level—and has been since July of last year. However, he’s been a slightly above-average bat at an offense-heavy position, with borderline Gold Glove defense for his career. That doesn’t scream star—more of a solid regular. He’s had two very good seasons—2019 and 2023—and he’s off to a promising start in 2024. It's hard to justify $21 million to a player for that. On the other hand, though, he’s playing the best baseball of his 10-year career right now, and that should be considered, given that it’s not a long-term deal; it’d just be for 2025. So, let’s consider some comparable recent cases. Cody Bellinger, coming off two miserable seasons, rebounded with the Cubs in 2023 and earned himself a QO. He has hit about 15% worse than Kepler has, but he plays a good center field. Bellinger also has a better pedigree (as a former MVP), and he’s 28—three years younger than Kepler. Bellinger is the kind of player you’d expect to earn a QO. However, Joc Pederson (2023), Brandon Nimmo (2022), and Michael Conforto (2021), each non-elite outfielders, received QOs. None had an OPS+ as high as Kepler’s has been over his last 100 games, though Nimmo (.800 OPS, 130 OPS+ in 2022) was a center fielder at that time. The best match is probably Pederson—a largely platooned lefty corner outfielder with an .874 OPS (146 OPS+) in 2022 for the Giants. Kepler has an .834 OPS (130 OPS+) over the past two seasons combined, but that includes his awful start to the 2023 season (a .688 OPS in the first half). If Kepler continues to hit like he has this season (.912 OPS, 158 OPS+), he would outpace Pederson considerably—but he could always regress, as well. There’s also the matter of team need. It’s why the Twins extended Jake Odorizzi the QO in 2019—they needed to solidify the rotation and were willing to overpay for a one-year deal. The Twins certainly have possible in-house Kepler replacements, like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Emmanuel Rodríguez. However, the first three have yet to prove themselves over the past several years, and Rodriguez is still in Double-A. The Twins may need one more year of Kepler. Would Kepler Accept the Qualifying Offer? Here’s the second step. There are a few things at work with this one. Kepler is heading into his age-32 season next year. Because he signed an ownership-friendly deal in 2019, he’s played for the Twins for 10 seasons. He might be focused on maximizing his own dollars this time around. A QO stands in the way of that. There’s a lot of time between accepting the QO and hitting free agency unfettered--an entire year of knowing you have to stay healthy and that each slump could be a $10-million problem. He is around the point that he could be looking for his last contract. A 33-year-old commands less money; his best years are already behind him. It might not seem like a lot, but the difference between hitting the market at 32 and 33 is significant. A player in Kepler’s shoes may prefer even Andrew Benintendi’s five-year, $75 million ($15 million per year) deal over the richer 2025 and the subsequent stress of finding the long-term deal next year. However, he may also value that money now. He might be confident that he can command more money next year without the attached draft pick compensation. He might like Minnesota. Who knows? The truth is, though, few players ever accept the QO. Only 13 of the 131 players who received the QO since 2012 have accepted it. Notably, Kepler’s best recent comp—Joc Pederson—did accept his. Can the Twins Afford It? Yeah, okay, here’s the elephant in the room. Maybe “Can they?” isn’t the right question—it’s more like “Will they?” Heading into 2024, the Twins cut $30 million in payroll. Given comments from ownership (and using the term “rightsizing”), fans probably shouldn’t expect a significant increase going into next season. I didn’t say that’s a good thing—it’s the reality. Payroll is already poised to be a problem, even without a $20-million right fielder. Check out Peter Labuza’s discussion of next year’s payroll. The short version is that players like Carlos Correa and Pablo López are hitting the high points of their contracts, while prominent players like Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, and Ryan Jeffers will see raises in arbitration. Payroll may be higher next season than this season, before the first addition is even made. That doesn’t include Kepler’s return, at $21 million. A Kepler-accepted QO may make a considerable dent in the Twin's plans. Teams never (at least on record) offer the QO in the hopes that the player declines. And Kepler isn’t a no-doubt decline candidate, unlike Shohei Ohtani (2023) or Aaron Judge (2022). If they offer it, they accept the possibility that he’s back, and for the big bucks. You may be thinking to yourself that Kepler could then become trade bait. However, that’s not an option, either (I think). Under the 2012-2016 collective bargaining agreement, players who accepted the QO could not be traded until after June 15, and there were limits on the amount of cash that could go back to the team—essentially preventing a team from trading a player they did not anticipate accepting the offer. In updates to the system under the 2017 collective bargaining agreement, alterations to that trade timeframe are not mentioned. In line with this, only two players who accepted the QO were ever traded. Jeremy Hellickson (July 28, 2017) and Neil Walker (August 12, 2017) were both traded after June 15 in the year they accepted the offer. Trading Kepler after the fact, then, is really not an option. Kepler can only get the QO if the team is actually ready to spend the money it represents. So, will the Twins be allowed to spend the money associated with Kepler returning? Well… View full article

Well this is all I can hope for. Thank you.

The sausage went missing. The team lost. The sausage was found. The team won. Does sausage lead to winning? Science says … maybe? Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports Many are sick of talking about the sausage. Many rejoiced when it was lost, but that loss coincided with a loss of games. Its return coincided with getting back in the win column. So, what can we make of it? If you’ve been living under a rock, the Twins have a lucky summer sausage they keep in the dugout during games. It all started when the Twins started touching a summer sausage during a slow night in Chicago, and their bats woke up. To many peoples’ chagrin, catching the sausage is a home run celebration. It’s a whole big thing. It was lost (I’m running with that as the official story, but it might have been misplaced on purpose) before the Twins left for Cleveland for a weekend series in which they were swept. They then lost to the Nationals, and the sausage was overnighted. Boom. They won. As a professed non-believer in witchcraft, I’m wary of saying that the sausage imbues the Twins with mythical powers. Unless you see the mind as magic. Maybe you’ve heard of the placebo effect. It’s born out of medical studies where participants will believe that they received some sort of medical treatment in the form of a pill, and, due to that belief, begin to heal, even if the pill contained no medication and was mere hardened sugar. We can see that effect in all walks of life. It’s especially relevant to baseball, as many positive effects of superstitions like wearing the same dirty socks or pregame rituals can be attributed to a placebo effect. As long as they think it makes them better, it will. If you’ve seen Space Jam, you might recognize Michael’s Secret Stuff, the sink water Michael Jordan used to convince the Loony Tunes that they could play like Mike. However, the placebo effect is not what this story is about. But it does illustrate a point. Even if you don’t believe that frivolous things like pregame rituals and clubhouse chemistry can raise players to performance levels they are otherwise incapable of, hopefully you can admit that those external factors can detract from their abilities. Just like you might be worse at your job when a sick family member occupies your mind, baseball players can see the same decreased performance when things aren’t going well, even off the field. A successful organization removes as many barriers to performance as possible. Sometimes, those barriers can be removed with a lucky Cloverdale Original Tangy Summer Sausage. Let’s move beyond the individual and focus on the team. Although baseball is largely an individual sport masquerading as a team game, having the team work together is key. Things like properly converting a double-play, relaying a throw from the outfield, or working with your pitcher as a catcher to execute a game plan are all team-based activities. One might call teams that consistently execute those team aspects cohesive. However, when we study teams, there’s more than one way to be cohesive. Working together and executing on the field is what’s termed task cohesion. It’s the proverbial well-oiled machine. The right hand knows what the left hand is doing. Task cohesion, across contexts spanning sport and industry, is one of the best predictors of team performance. It makes sense. A team that works together performs better. But there are other types of cohesion. Social cohesion refers to how people work together as humans. Do they get along well, do they communicate on and off the field, or have they formed bonds with each other? Naturally, the link between social cohesion and performance is less direct and weaker than for task cohesion. However, it can, again, be a factor that gives a team a slight edge, because it can remove barriers to performance. For example, would it be easier to perform well if you had a teammate who owed you money after a card game or had no such teammate occupying your thoughts? Sure, you might cite your impeccable mental toughness, but, in reality, it can distract you in your preparation. It can make you more likely to react poorly to his performance. It can interrupt your flow state. Keeping the guys together matters. And so the sausage comes in. Ryan Jeffers himself—the leader of the sausage movement—admitted, "It’s the idea of the sausage – it’s the meaning behind the sausage.” It’s a blatantly silly idea, but if the guys buy into it, who’s going to stop them? A couple of ideas from organizational research come to mind here. One is the idea of cultural artifacts. Just like nations have unique cultures that inform members of that culture on how to act and what is valued, organizations have the same. Each organization is different, prioritizes different things, and even has different ways of interacting amongst itself. Not only do those cultural factors inform members on how to be members, but they also set them apart. Cultures have heroes. The Twins have the likes of Kirby Puckett, Harmon Killebrew, and Joe Mauer, who serve as examples of model Twins—at least on the field. Likewise, their uniforms and logos carry some essence of the team and literally set them apart from every other team in the league. And they have a sausage. Right now, at least, the sausage is an artifact of the team’s culture. It’s something that the team is using as a unifying measure to rally behind and say “This is our team. This is who we are. This is what we do.” It’s a tangible aspect of their culture and the mission that they are all supposed to buy into, and it’s an idea they can point to. Which leads me to a second topic. This one’s a big word—anthropomorphization. When we, as humans, try to make sense of the world surrounding us, we tend to assign human characteristics to anything. The Yankees are evil. We all know this. The same as the Guardians and White Sox. Just bad. But what does that mean? These are just organizations. They’re made of people, but you can’t reach out and touch “the Yankees.” So why do we know that someone in a Yankees jersey is the embodiment of villainy? Because we’ve anthropomorphized the Yankees. We’ve given the organization human characteristics. In a similar way, the rally sausage is the physical embodiment of the team. You can’t see the team. Being a team is an emergent property of a group. It’s a word that categorizes people. One way that we can actually put a face to that group of people is through a logo, a nickname, or a catchphrase, but we still can’t touch any of those ideas. We can touch sausage, though, and that’s what makes it real. No. I am not saying the team will live and die by the sausage. Jeffers himself stated that he was open to swapping out the sausage for something else. I’m not saying that the sausage unlocks new powers for the Twins. None of that. What I am saying is that it’s important for a team to find their sausage, whatever that is. If it’s something that draws the team together, represents who they are, and keeps things flowing in a social, relational, and interpersonal way, well, you better keep slingin’ sausage. View full article

We appreciate the listen, Doc! I thought about Castro as my pick as well, but a few shows ago I picked him to eat the most hot dogs, and I wanted to give someone else some shine

It's a podcast. About the Minnesota Twins. Sweet Lou Hennessy, Cody Schoenmann, Sherry Cerny, and Greggory Masterson recap the Twins' 2-7 skid and look ahead to Texas, Kansas City, and Houston. They also propose strategies for putting butts in seats at Target Field and rave about acrobatic dads, but that's beside the point Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

Episode three of the Off-Daily Podcast comes at you... on an off-day. Sweet Lou Hennessy, Cody Schoenmann, Matt Braun, and Greggory Masterson recap three series wins against the Red Sox, Mariners, and Blue Jays. This one right here goes out to all the baby's mamas, mamas, mamas mamas, baby mamas mamas. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

The Twins are on a lengthy winning streak as they enter an off-day. Let's talk about it! Lou Hennessy, Greggory Masterson, and Theo Tollefson get together to recap the Twins 11-2 stretch, including 10 wins in a row against the White Sox and Angels. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article