Greggory Masterson

We all saw what he could do in the pen. It’s tempting, but it’s not the time. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports It’s frankly a compliment to the Twins’ front office, amateur scouts, and player development that we’re even having this discussion. As a 15th-round pick in 2019, the bar was pretty low, but he’s vaulted over it, and now coaches and executives have a tricky question: let him continue to develop as a starter or turn him loose in the bullpen. Although Louie Varland was a relative unknown coming out of the draft, he has worked hard behind the scenes to add velocity to his fastball—which sat in the low 90s on draft day but now averages 95—and develop usable breaking pitches to add to his excellent control and extension. He’s already had some success as both a starter and a reliever. Through his first 12 career starts between 2022 and 2023, he had a sub-4.00 ERA, though his FIP was about a run higher than that due to a homerun per nine innings rate of nearly 2.00. The wheels came off in his final three starts, giving up 17 runs and five home runs in 15 innings with an opposing OPS of 1.101. Varland returned to St. Paul and stayed at the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate from June 18th until September 6th. Upon his return, a new Louie Varland was at manager Rocco Baldelli’s disposal, slinging his fastball up to the high 90s and touching 100. Over 12 relief innings, struck 17 batters out, holding them to a .471 OPS and allowing just two runs (1.50 ERA). In addition to pumping his fastball velocity, working out of the bullpen has also allowed him to rely more heavily on his fastball. Since leaving Division II Concordia-St. Paul with only a fastball, he’s experimented with several off-speed pitches to mixed results. If he’s a reliever, there will be less emphasis on developing those secondary pitches, which is another tick in favor of leaving him in the pen. However, there are two reasons that Varland should not be moved to the bullpen—just yet. First, he deserves one more shot at being a starter—something he’s openly opined for himself—and the Twins need to ensure they don’t start the permanent transition too early. Does Varland project as a frontline starter? No. At present, he seems like a competent backend option. Depending on his ceiling in the bullpen, there’s absolutely a case to be made that he would be more valuable in the eighth inning. However, the starting option should be exhausted before that move is made. With few exceptions, pitchers do not return from the bullpen to the rotation. If Varland can get his changeup or slider up to an above-league-average pitch, or if he further develops his cutter, he could have a role as a mid-rotation starter, and those do not grow on trees. There are often two reasons a career starter is permanently moved to the bullpen—ineffectiveness and injury. Current Twins examples include Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, respectively. Jax was cartoonishly ineffective as a 26-year-old rookie starter in 2022 (after the first time through the order), but his fastball and slider played enough to warrant work in the pen. Duran endured several injuries as a starter, and his raw stuff was begging for an MLB job anyway. Varland fits neither of those camps. Again, if he is revealed to be no more than a backend option, it’s probably time to let him cook as a reliever. However, given the time and effort he’s expended to get to the spot he’s in, few would be surprised if he took one more step and could be a mid-rotation arm. But to figure that out, the team must keep the toothpaste in the tube. The second reason is more practical and logistical. The Twins don’t have the depth right now to remove him from the mix. All indications suggest that the team will acquire another starter this offseason, bumping Varland out of the rotation, but as recent history indicates, teams need more than five MLB starters. Varland can slide into the next-man-up position occupied by Bailey Ober in 2023, on call in St. Paul until a rotation spot opens up—which is inevitable in modern MLB. He would be moved up from the seventh option that he occupied in 2023, a position that gave him 10 starts—and probably would have given him more opportunities were it not for Dallas Keuchel’s emergence as A Man Who Throws Innings midseason. Currently behind Varland on that depth chart are arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Brent Headrick, and Randy Dobnak. You might have your favorite of that lot, but if forced up to the sixth option—which meant 26 starts for Bailey Ober last year—there’s reason to be worried about the rotation. Keeping Varland there and giving the other options more time to separate themselves in St. Paul, or simply continue to develop, is the safest course of action. Another option is bringing in a veteran to occupy that sixth spot, which would make keeping Varland on standby less of a necessity, but that, too, is a logistic hard bargain. In order to bring a veteran in to sit in Triple-A, the organization probably needs to find a player with no offers to join a big-league team out of camp. That caliber of player is someone like late-career-Keuchel, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Aaron Sanchez, or Jose De Leon. None of those names inspire the same amount of confidence that Varland does. Bringing in someone with an opt-out for that position may raise the ceiling a bit on the type of veteran who can be stashed in St. Paul, but that’s still someone like 2020’s Jhoulys Chacín (who did, in fact, opt out before the Twins had reason to call him up. If starting pitching doesn’t work out for Varland in 2024, there’s plenty of room for him to transition. Shoot, even if he is an effective starter, he can still be bumped down to the pen in September for the playoff run, similar to how Kenta Maeda was handled in Los Angeles. It’s just not time to force it today. View full article

We all know the list. You probably just said it in your own head. Did you stop before or after Rich Hill? Do all the names on that list belong on that list? Do they each deserve the same amount of scorn? Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports Let’s be blunt. The Twins spent a few years giving contracts to bad starting pitchers. Since 2020, the Twins have signed six starting pitchers to MLB deals in free agency. Five were out of baseball the following year, and the other is 43-year-old Rich Hill, looking for his 14th MLB team this offseason. These signings get lumped together regularly. You’ll probably hear the list rattled off by a cynical friend when the topic of the Twins going after starting pitching comes up. You might have it memorized yourself for just such an occasion. However, looking at it retrospectively, the only thing the names on the list share is that they didn’t work out. Derek Falvey has preferred to trade for front-end starters and sign backend starters, so it makes sense that few free agent gambits have paid off. I ask you, though, is there a process that links the signings together? Once in a while, Twins Daily lets me grind an axe, and it’s Christmas, so here I am. A company man, through, and through, I’m going to explain why each of those bargain bin pitchers was acquired via a different process, and it doesn’t do justice to lump them in as one coherent philosophical shortcoming. First though, as an overarching idea—I want to stress that none of the names here were acquired to pitch Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, so they need to be analyzed as what they are—backend starter options. None were signed to deals north of $8 million, so expectations should have been low at the onset. Dylan Bundy, 2022 Let’s start with the face of the list. Despite having a Number 4 overall draft pick pedigree, Bundy never lived up to his hype, but he was a fine pitcher in Baltimore. By fine, I mean that a team wouldn’t lose sleep over him living in the back of the rotation. He had a terrific 2020 abbreviated season with the Angels, placing ninth in the American League Cy Young voting, but then he bottomed out in 2021 while also dealing with injury. Leading into the 2022 lockout, the Twins had a rotation that featured Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and—well—not much. Griffin Jax was penciled into a spot. The day before the lockout began, the Twins signed Bundy to a $5 million deal with an option for $10 million in 2023. It’s a bit unreasonable to get too upset at the team facing an uncertainty like a lockout just trying to find someone to pencil in and start to fill in a nonexistent rotation. Bundy carried with him the potential to be something more, as well. It didn’t come to fruition, though. Chris Archer, 2022 Archer signed a similar deal to Bundy, though only earning $2.75 in the first year before the option. Archer’s story was similar to Bundy's, though more extreme. Four years and several surgeries removed from his two All-Star nominations, Archer was recovering from yet another surgery going into the 2022 season. There were more questions about Archer than Bundy, but the ceiling would undoubtedly be higher if the Twins could assist him through a healthy recovery. The rotation had one more empty spot after the additions of Bundy and Sonny Gray (via trade). Other options to fill the final spot included Johnny Cueto. In the past, the club had been criticized for setting the ceiling too low in their signings, and Archer had as high a ceiling as nearly anyone that offseason—he could reasonably have been a low playoff starter, given a return to form—but his risk was nearly as high. In the end, he was moderately effective but rarely had the juice to finish the fifth inning. JA Happ, 2021 Happ was the polar inverse of Archer, and his struggles may have been some of the impetus for the Twins to opt for Archer over an innings eater like Cueto. Happ was 38 and at the end of a career that had seen him throw for a 3.98 ERA over 14 years. The one-time All-Star was a World Series winner in 2008 and the platonic ideal of a competent backend starter. The Twins already had Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda penciled in as arms they were happy to roll with in 2021, and adding Happ was supposed to provide reliable, veteran stability at the back end, so he was paid a moderate $8 million to do so. However, Father Time catches up to all of us, and Happ reached the end of his rope. Those types of things happen. But he wasn’t a reclamation project like Bundy or Archer, and no one was dreaming big on him. They just wanted some competent innings, and Happ failed to deliver. Matt Shoemaker, 2021 (or The Shoe, if you please) Shoemaker is the most puzzling signing on this list if you ignore all of the context. Randy Dobnak, coming off two promising partial seasons, was slated to fill the fifth spot, but to add a bit of depth, the team brought in Shoemaker to bump Dobnak down a peg. Who was Shoemaker? A pitcher who had a few decent years in his late 20s but was 34 and working on coming back from several injuries. Call him the proto-Archer, if you will. The Twins didn’t break the bank on him, paying him just $2 million. The idea was simple: if it works, keep him, and if it doesn’t, cut him free. It didn’t work. However, to make matters worse, the cavalry didn’t come. Although they did part with him, the Twins finished the year getting starts from Griffin Jax, Charlie Barnes, John Gant, and several other unfortunate names. Had Dobnak been healthy and taken his spot when it was clear he didn’t have it anymore, it would have been a failed experiment. No matter what, though, it’s not as if the Twins staked their season or drained their pockets on the Matt Shoemaker Experiment. He was essentially a minor league veteran who skipped a step and broke camp with the team. Homer Bailey, 2020 If Shoemaker was the proto-Archer, Bailey was the proto-Happ. However, the signs were much more evident that his time was running out. From 2009 to 2014, his ERA started with a 3, and he was a competent innings eater, when healthy. However, it was 2020, and he had a 5.56 ERA since 2015, throwing fewer than 400 innings in five years. The Twins were in a strange place, having swung and missed on frontline starters in free agency like Zack Wheeler, and although they would go on to trade for Kenta Maeda, they needed some depth to pair with Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. However, another factor was at play—both Pineda (serving a PED suspension) and Hill (recovering from Tommy John surgery) were slated to miss the first months of the season. The Twins needed someone to throw innings in April, May, and June, keeping the seat warm for Pineda and Hill, so the Bailey signing, or something like it, was necessary, if only to reach the summer. It’s hard to knock them for not getting another frontline pitcher, but choosing Bailey specifically is a bit of a headscratcher. He would also only throw eight innings for the Twins, adding to his thief in the night legend. Conclusion So why have I been prattling on about a bunch of pitchers who didn’t work out in Minnesota? Maybe it’s because I’m a pedant. Something about me gets annoyed when I hear all of these pitchers lumped in together as if there was a connecting tissue among their signings. There were factors like suspensions, depth, and a lockout that played into each signing, and each pitcher was valued for different reasons, to different degrees. Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ are in no way the same concept, nor were they expected to serve the same role. I just get annoyed when these mistakes are all made out to be one idea. Was this a waste of time to write and read? Sound off in the comments. Also, before you ask, let’s speed run the rest (who may or may not be on your list, depending on how crotchety you are). Rich Hill: did exactly what was asked of him; stop complaining about a journeyman fifth starter. Martin Perez: almost had it, but also did what was expected of him. Lance Lynn (he hated it here, and he was grumpy, and it makes Minnesotans sad): weird situation; he was good for 11 years as long as he wasn’t in Minnesota. Michael Pineda: good signing; if you list him, I don’t know what to tell you. View full article

This is correct; they’re all intertwined, but I try to hold myself to 1,100 word writeups, max

The point is “wow, this is a pretty fun story.” This isn’ta Very Special Episode or anything. It’s just interesting

Do you ever hear those stories about the kid who started with a paper clip and, after a few dozen swaps, managed to end up trading for a used car? Have you ever wondered about the poor dunderhead who started the string of trades by trading their pencil for that paper clip? Image courtesy of © Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports The Twins were that dunderhead. Had they only been able to see into the future, they could have kept their pencil and traded up to being the proud owners of a used car. That paper clip? Delmon Young. The pencil? Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. The used car at the end? 63.5 Wins Above Replacement (and counting), according to Baseball Reference, for the Tampa Bay Rays. If you don’t know this story, you're in for a treat. Let’s go back to 2007, when Young was a rising star for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This tale started before they even changed their name. The former first-round pick, famously suspended for 50 games in the minors for hitting an umpire with a bat, had just finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting. Minnesota, looking for a long-term answer in left field, traded MLB regular shortstop Jason Bartlett, starting pitcher Matt Garza, and minor-league pitcher Eddie Morlan for the promising star. Along with Young came journeyman infielder Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie. I will use bWAR as a shorthand for performance here, because we have much to cover in this trade's fallout. Young had a rocky career for the Twins, with only one season in which he was an above-average hitter—and his defense didn’t make up for any of that offensive inconsistency. Over four years with the Twins, he accumulated 1 WAR and was traded for Cole Nelson (who never made MLB) and Lester Oliveros, who threw 21.1 innings for the Twins (0.0 WAR) before his release. Harris had a three-year career with the Twins as a utility player, which went poorly after the first year (-0.6 WAR total). He was included in the trade sending J.J. Hardy to the Orioles for Brett Jacobsen (never made MLB) and reliever Jim Hoey (-0.6 WAR). Out of mercy and because Hardy was also part of the trade, I’ll leave Hoey out. After 10 games and six plate appearances, Pridie (-0.2 WAR) was waived. So, in total, the Twins received 0.4 WAR between Young, Harris, Oliveros, and Pridie. How did the Rays come out on the deal? Well. They came out real well. Bartlett played three years in Tampa as the everyday shortstop, and he even got an All-Star selection (10.4 WAR). Garza started 94 games over three very good years (8.5 WAR). If this were the end of the story, it would be rough for the Twins, as their 0.4 WAR pales compared to Tampa’s 18.9. Instead, we’re just getting started. Bartlett was traded in 2010 to San Diego for Cole Figueroa (-0.1 WAR), Brandon Gomes (-0.1 WAR), Cesár Ramos (1.4 WAR), and Adam Russell (0.2). It’s really not much to write home about, but extracting trade value from declining or departing players is part of what’s helped the Rays remain competitive despite a bottom-tier payroll. Sometimes, it leads to dead ends (1.4 WAR between them), but sometimes, it works out better. Speaking of which, Garza was also traded before 2011, along with minor-league lefty Zac Rosscup and quadruple-A outfielder Fernando Pérez, to the Cubs, for Hak-Ju Lee (never reached MLB), catcher Robinson Chirinos (0.2 WAR), outfielder Sam Fuld (2.3 WAR), and outfielder Brandon Guyer (5.8 WAR). Oh, they also got Chris Archer in that trade--not the Twins version, but the two-time All-Star (12.5 WAR). That’s a total of 20.8 WAR gained from trading Bartlett and Garza themselves. But the Rays also traded Archer to Pittsburgh amid his worst full season. Archer brought back pitchers Tyler Glasnow (8.6 WAR) and Shane Baz (0.5 WAR), who are both still with the club and continuing to accrue value for the team. They could also be traded to continue the chain further, as happened with the third piece of the Archer trade, Austin Meadows (6.6 WAR; 15.7 WAR from the Archer tree). Meadows was shipped to Detroit in 2022 for Isaac Paredes (6.7 WAR), who still has four years of team control and is now a subject of trade rumors. The Rays also received the Tigers’ second-round compensatory pick in 2022, which they used to select outfielder Ryan Cermak, a 22-year-old in A ball. If he reaches the Rays, they can stretch this tree into the 2030s. As of December 14th, it appears Glasnow (pending an extension) has also been flipped, along with Manuel Margot, to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Johnny Deluca. To date, the Garza half of this tree has amounted to 51.7 WAR for the Rays. Margot's inclusion in the deal muddies the math for Pepiot and Deluca in this trade, but it will nonetheless continue to grow. Altogether, however, the Rays have netted 63.5 WAR in players acquired in the Delmon Young trade (and players acquired through players acquired in the Delmon Young trade). In comparison to what Minnesota got (0.4 WAR), that’s alarming. And it will continue to grow as the club derives value from Paredes, Baz, Cermak, Pepiot, and Deluca—along with whomever they’re eventually traded for. Even on the field, the trade continues to bite the Twins. On June 7, Paredes homered to give the Rays an early lead, then started an inning-ending double play in the field in the top of the ninth, killing a Twins bases-loaded rally, before Randy Arozarena walked off Jhoan Durán in the bottom of the inning. Now, you might be thinking to yourself, “Gregg, you great lout! Every team has this type of trade! Players are traded all the time, so they’re bound to catch a few good ones in a row!” I may be a great lout, but let’s look at the Twins' own history for context. Many cite the 2003 trade that sent A.J. Pierzynski to San Francisco as the greatest heist in Twins history. Pierzynski played for the Giants for one year (0.3 WAR) and was released. In return, the Twins gained Boof Bonser (-0.2 WAR), fireballer Francisco Liriano (9.3 WAR), and the greatest closer in team history, Joe Nathan (18.4 WAR). It was undeniably a franchise-altering move that also paved the way for Joe Mauer’s ascent. It gets better, though. Nathan walked in free agency after nine seasons, and Bonser was traded for Chris Province, who never made the big leagues, but Liriano was traded in 2012. In return, the White Sox sent pitcher Pedro Hernández (-0.7 WAR) and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. Escobar had a productive seven-season career in Minnesota (5.7 WAR) and was traded in 2018 to Arizona during a deadline fire sale. The Diamondbacks returned a package that included Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad, who left the organization before reaching the majors. It also brought back hard-throwing pitching prospect Jhoan Durán (4.7 WAR). Durán will continue accumulating value for Minnesota, and the returns for Pierzynski currently add up to 37.2 WAR, which is substantial. Compared to the 0.3 WAR Pierzynski put up in San Francisco, there’s no way to take the trades as anything other than a win. However, it’s just over half of the value of the Young trade, and there’s only one piece in Minnesota still chugging along, compared to four in Tampa. The Pierzynski also took place four seasons earlier than the Young trade. Is this reason to harbor resentment toward the Twins or Terry Ryan? No. It’s just a comically absurd series of events that span nearly two decades and continue to get funnier. These things happen, but it’s usually not to this extent. Could the Twins have kept Garza and Bartlett, starting the same chain reaction for themselves? Maybe, but so many things had to go right for the Rays to get to this place that I wouldn't count on any GM to pull it off. Heck, it's taken four Rays GMs to do it. View full article

Thank you, we Greg(g)s have to stick to gether

No, seriously. Stop laughing. If the Twins don’t have a Pagán replacement in 2024, they will need a philosophy shift. There’s no two ways about it: Emilio Pagan rode the rollercoaster as a Twin. He had high highs and low lows. He wasn’t at the top of anyone’s pecking order in the 2023 bullpen—including manager Rocco Baldelli’s—but he filled a role that doesn’t have an immediate replacement, and he was good in that role. When one thinks about the essential members of the bullpen, archetypes like closer, setup, lefty specialist, and fireman come to mind. Pagán’s run in 2022 as the closer was disastrous. His career home-run numbers prevented him from being used as a fireman, and by the end of his tenure, he was merely an occasional setup man. Instead, Pagán was a middle innings merchant--and he was pretty daggum good at it. Bolstered by a career-low 0.6 home runs per nine innings (less than half the rate of his next-best year), he pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA, while leading the bullpen at 69 1/3 innings over 66 appearances. He was perfect in his role, holding opponents to an OPS in the .400s between medium- and low-leverage appearances. His performance was substantially worse in high-leverage situations (.828 OPS against). Still, as a good organization should do, the Twins played to his strengths, only putting him in high-leverage situations for 22 percent of the batters he faced in 2023. He threw at least once in every inning except the second, and 80 percent of his appearances came before the eighth. Going into 2024, the Twins have a backend that seems pretty solid. Jhoan Duran is paired with right-handed setup men Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart, with Caleb Thielbar primed to return as the high-leverage lefty and Kody Funderburk slotted to fill the second lefty role. The middle innings go-to guy isn’t as clear—especially if the team intends to use someone the way they used Pagán. It wasn’t only the innings and in-game situations that made Pagán’s usage unique; he was also relied on for his proverbial "rubber arm," in a way that no other Twin has been over the past few years. Last offseason, I pointed out Pagán’s unusual place by the end of 2022. They would throw him wherever and whenever the situation called for it, and he excelled. The rest-conscious Twins tend to err on the side of underworking relievers. Pagán threw back-to-back games 14 percent of the time and a team-high 38 percent of the time on exactly one day’s rest. A total of 52 percent of his appearances were on one or fewer days’ rest, which was tied for the most often among Twins relievers with Jax. However, Pagán threw more than one inning in 21 percent of his appearances, and at least two in nine percent of them. None of the “short-relief” guys who tended to throw on less rest could match Pagán’s multi-inning output. Jax never threw more than an inning. Stewart's 18 percent of appearances matching that criterion is as close as it got, and he only threw two innings once. Some pitchers threw multiple innings more often than Pagán, but those were guys like Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, Jorge Alcala, and José De León, a group of abused arms that could be swapped out if necessary. Also, did you know that Cole Sands threw a whopping 21 2/3 innings, despite seemingly being on the roster all season? De León could, potentially, have been another Pagán-type reliever, before his season ended in Tommy John surgery. Based on how the club threw Alcala to the wolves last year after a return from injury, he may be an option for bulk, productive work in the middle innings. Maybe Funderburk carries some of that load as well. Balazovic is out of options, and the former starter is a potential fill-in in the role, but his lack of strikeouts makes it challenging to put faith in him. Still, the Twins are committed to using him in a bullpen role, so he's in position to take on the burden. One exciting possibility Matt Canterino, who is also coming off Tommy John surgery but may someday be a late-inning reliever. Canterino might fill a Pagán-like role as he settles into a bullpen role, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins are keen on a Pagán-like usage pattern for a recovering prospect. Also, reports indicate he’s still seen as a starter by the Twins’ brass. The difficulty in replacing Pagán isn’t that he threw well in the middle innings, or that he threw on little rest, or that he could be counted on for more than three outs at a time—it’s that he did all three. It’s pretty straightforward to replace one of those traits, maybe even two. But all three? That’s a different beast. I haven’t mentioned any free-agent relievers because, let’s be honest, projecting the Twins’ reliever targets is a futile exercise made more impotent by payroll questions. Who knows? Maybe they’ll throw $2 million at a Joe Smith equivalent and hope it works, but it’s almost not worth discussing. They’ll probably bring in two minor-league veterans or waiver claims that will mysteriously stick. If a Pagán replacement doesn’t appear, they’ll need to change their philosophy on handling the middle innings. Maybe they throw their bigger arms earlier, or more often, or on shorter rest, to pick up the slack. Maybe the Green Line will bring them middle relievers on a tryout, in addition to the bulk arms for blowouts or injuries. The point is that the Twins—to a degree—built a bullpen hierarchy around Pagán’s strengths, and it’s going to take some shuffling to work around the lack of a rubber-armed, 2.99 ERA, middle-innings guy. There are options, but it’s hard to see it working as well as it did in 2023. View full article

I'll be straight up, that bit came to me in a vision 8 months ago and I've been sitting on it looking for the right time to use it ever since.

Alright folks listen up I have some thoughts I want to get off my chest and I'm digging deeper then a home run hit by the REAL TC Bear at the Metrodome so buckle up. In this essay, I will explore and evaluate Carlos Correa's performance as assistant general manager, 2 years in. On January 11th 2023 a day that will live in infamy Carlos Correa who was turned down because of medicals by the giants and Mets came crawling back to Minnesota because no one else would take him and he got 200 million buckaroos to boot. And that fateful day he was dubbed "assistant general manager of the Minnesota Twins" by Thad Levine and Scott Boris. Miriam Webster defines assistant as "a person who assists someone" general as "not confined by specialization or careful limitation" and manager as "a person who conducts business or household affairs" so that means Correa is someone who assists the business of the Twins that is not confined by specialization. Now I have a gripe to pick with that definition as Correa is confined by specialization he's just a defensive specialist stop me if you heard this before but he's just another Mark Belanger in the field and he shouldn't hit higher then seventh. But I suppose that's besides the point because these days there changing grammar rules to fit what people are more comfortable with. Just the other year the Associated Press (whom I would never want to associate with) said that "less" and "fewer" are interchangeable now. Folks,, that's fewer then ideal if you ask me. Fewer refers to quantifiable entities but less refers to things you can't "count." Theres less sand on the beach but fewer grains of sand I'll just leave it at that if you catch my drift. But I digress. With Correa's new title as assistant general manager (abbreviated to AGM henceforth) comes responsibility. Just like Uncle Ben told Luke Skywalker, with Great Power Comes Great Responsibility. So where is his assistant general manager responsibility when cheap pohlad issues a edict from on high that the Twins are cutting payroll. The pocket protectors at the Athletic reported that it could be as low as 125 million but with how buddy-buddy those clowns are with the owners, I would guess it will be closer to 115 DESPITE the taxpayer funded stadium. If Carlos Correa is really the AGM, why hasn't he stepped up to the plate and forced cheap pohlad to recant his ways? A true leader would walk right up to that man and demand a bigger payroll, even if that meant he got cut and didn't get his 30 million dollars a year. It's called integrity. My first job I walked into the managers office and said "sir I would like a job" and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor. It's called initiative. cheap pohlad might even like his gumption. The Twins are paying Correa enough that he shouldn't be afraid to step up and do the right thing but I guess that's just how baseballer are raised these days when they don't live in fear of Bob Gibson or Christy Mathewson or Eddie Cicotte putting one in there earhole. Speaking of doing the right thing, the Twins never bunt except for scrappy infielder Jorge Polanco and my favorite player Michael A. Taylor who sneakily plays the game the right way. Why hasn't Correa sat Baldelli (the "field manager") and told him "No Rocco, we're playing smallball now. Its not 2019 anymore. If it was good enough for the 1927 Yankees than why isn't it good enough for the 2024 Twins." As AGM, he is Rocco's boss. He's a puppet for the front office anyway and that includes Carlos. And another thing, speaking about bunting. How come bunting is only placed around the stadiums after the fourth of July (Independence Day). I really like those little half-circle flags. They really tie the field together and it reminds us of the greatest country God ever invented where we play the greatest Sport He ever invented, It's like how there's no jobs for pumping gas anymore. We just take things away that are useful and good to streamline the process, which is probably why Driveline is personally snipping 14 year olds' UCLs so they have to get Tommy John surgery. Anyway, I want to point out some hypocrisy from our friend Carlos. He exerted his influence to make signings like his old Astros friend Christian Vazquez and also Dallas Keuchel. But he's refusing to put his foot down and challenge cheap pohald on one little thing? And don't come at me siting things like "The Ballys's Situation" because that's a load of hogwash. If Derek and Thad "the smartest guys in the room" couldn't see this whole thing come crashing down then why are they paid for? But of course the whole Ballys's situation blew up in everyone's faces and now we have half the screen taken up by bally betting lines (there a gambling company like the Bellagio). But of course you can gamble during the baseball game from your smart TV but Pete Rose, an upstanding public figure, bet on some games that he had control over and made in-game decisions based on whether or not he bet on that game and now he can't get into the Hall of Fame? What a joke. Speaking of fairness and equality, [Hi, this is Greggory's wife, Earnestine. I have been editting this post and fixing type-os for Greggory, but I'm making the executive decisions to omit this paragraph. While his head was in the right place, Greggory's calls to rename singles to "gentleman singles" and walks to "lady singles" in an effort to promote gender equality probably didn't come off in the right way.] And so that brings me to my next point. Carlos Correa needs to also reconsider the money he's making. Instead of trading a team legend like all-American boy Max Kepler (who I would let date my daughter) to shave salary, maybe Carlos could consider a paycut. Based on Fan Graphs WAR he was only worth about 15 million dollars which is a kings ransom for Buxton but okay for Correa, so maybe he should except the paycut down to 15 million. IF he's as committed to winning as he said then maybe he's willing to do so. It's what leaders do. Or maybe he could restructure his contract a la Kurt Cousins. I once had a offer to double my salary and jump over to the meat packing plant but I know the value of loyalty and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor. So that's what's got this on my mind like a Sheboygan sausage, which reminds me whatever happened to the Hormel W***** Winner Row? I never got one but I always wanted a free DomeDog. This winter, if Carlos Correa wants to prove that he has earned the title of AGM, well then it's time to start putting the money where his mouth is. It's just sad to watch this childrens' game become a big money grab for everyone involved. Sure, back in the day you had your Chick Gandils and Billy Mahargs, but they were the exception not the rules. Owners used to be willing to spend on their teams. Remember the time that Tommy Lasorda beat up the San Diego Chicken? But the game we used to love is now dominated by launch velocity and exit angle and seam shifted wake and they don't give away physical ticket stubs either. I can only add it to my Apple Wallet which is the only billfold you can't put in your back pocket or else it will break. Everything is just too streamlined and money focused these days which is probably why downtowns don't decorate for Christmas anymore. I miss seeing wreaths and tinsel and statues of Santa now the only place I can go to get that ambiance is the hellhole that is Duluth, MN. But even Duluth makes they're downtown look like that all year. It's like they waited for Bing Crosby's song Winter Wonderland to hit the public domain then made a town around it. just another sign of the corporatization of middle America. Speaking of winters in Minnesota why didn't they build a roof on Target Field? Probably never expected to have a playoff game in October which is why cheap pohlad only invests enough to pretend to compete like signing Carlos Correa when they could have signed 42 minimum-salary players for the same money. And don't even start with me about how having a roof on Target Field would mean fans can't see the Minnesota skyline because let me tell you about downtown Minnesota. Ever since [Earnestine again; we are going to skip this part]. Which brings me to my final point and thesis. I think that the Twins rolled out the red carpet for Correa and he didn't deserve it. Beyond the salary, he also got "Star Wars Night" instituted and I'm here to say that he's not even a real nerd because Kylo Ren and the Sequel Series are NOT cannon. I consider myself more of a Trekkie myself they really have some good messages about inclusivity unlike Star Wars which is all about space wizards for children committing terrorism against the state. But Correa has probably never even read Asimov or knows the rules to robots. So the Twins did all that work to bring him in and the fans have nothing to show for it. Just another Hershel Walker trade and Parise and Suter. When will he earn his salary and demand cheap pohlad invest in this team? Probably never. Instead they'll probably trade all there good players for prospects who will just be traded again once there good. And speaking of good I have one last thought. I really miss seeing Mary Tyler Moore on the tube. She was a real fox and they don't make women like that [except for my loving wife Earnestine]. It's just frustrating that people these days don't value the same things anymore. It says a lot about the state of our country, if you ask me.

In their defense, the Romo trade was great and the Fulmer trade was fine. Then they had three nothing burgers (eg, Sandy León) and then the train wreck three: Mahle, López, Dyson

My wifi is bad and BRef runs better on my computer! in all seriousness, I don’t read too deeply into WAR (whoever’s it is) in conversations like this. If they’re within 10 WAR of even after 10 trades, it’s essentially a fair shake, in my opinion. I like it as one of many contextual factors

Since those trades were selling off assets at the deadline, I analyzed them this summer here. I’ve divided them all up because they’ve made approximately 60 trades since 2016

The MLB offseason requires creativity for mid-market teams who want to remain competitive. The Twins have a recent history of swapping big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has that worked? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA Today No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It's pretty straightforward to pick winners and losers when a team trades MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors for a position of need. These are often called challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit under this front office's tenure. I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins. If that trade wasn't Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo, you just thought of a challenge trade. The only time that the Twins have truly sold—i.e., traded an MLB player for a prospect—was that second Urshela trade. Below, I've listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade (or sell) under Derek Falvey. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. A player's performance is not included if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the original trade. This analysis doesn't have future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn't available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn't ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract. Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. There's much to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and rid themselves of Donaldson. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome, and the Yankees waived him before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop role, handling a super-utility role when his contract ended after 2023. Rortvedt has played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson's, the Twins are no longer paying either, and that excess money helped to bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023. 1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins tabbed López as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it's questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He's under team control in Miami through 2025. 2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA's bullpen when healthy. Camargo has not reached the majors, while the Twins traded Raley to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA. 4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota. This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever, Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for the Padres but wound up a 2023 All-Star with Oakland. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and will likely open 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently in Rookie ball as a starter, and the Twins retained most of Rogers's salary. 3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver has dealt with injuries in Texas but has still hit well, though relegated to mainly DH. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again, and Henriquez threw a few innings in 2022, but the Twins released him after the 2023 season. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota. However, he would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old and a starter at High-A. 2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended. Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they've brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there's room for discussion. The team could say that they'd do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it's easy to see who wins and loses, but it's a little trickier to contextualize them. What do you think? Do you trust the team to trade away big leaguers again in 2024? View full article

Yes—that’s the link I referred to as “deadline sell.” It’s not updated with end-of-year stats, but it’s accurate through June (I think)

Tyler Mahle, Jorge Lopez, Sam Dyson, and Michael Fulmer are all trade deadline acquisitions. I discussed those trades at the 2023 deadline here. I'll dig them back up for the 2024 deadline, update stats, and rearrange my rankings. I also did a deadline sell review here. Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack were trades I categorized as offseason "challenge trades" because they were traded for present major leaguers (Brusdar Graterol and Taylor Rogers/Brent Rooker, respectively). There's another writeup for those trades coming out shortly. I choose to break these up because I'm operating from a 90 line Excel spreadsheet with the data for these writeups, and the analysis for all 60+ trades is a 4000+ word document. Much easier to digest in parts, in my opinion.

If you didn’t point that out, I would have never noticed. It’s always next Tuesday anyway.

The hot stove is heating up, and players are available on the trade block for the right price. How much trust should we place in the Twins trading prospects for MLB talent? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Steven Cruz) No team wins every trade, but competitive teams typically win more than they lose. Teams that can leverage offseason trades, instead of free agency, to fill out their roster are often rewarded with less monetarily expensive players, which can benefit a team like the Twins, whose payroll going into 2024 is uncertain. To aid you in determining how much faith to put in the current Twins front office, I have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 in which the Twins traded away a prospect for a ready-made MLB player. You can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a "Buy" over the offseason. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2022 Sonny Gray trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Gray was good for 7.7 bWAR and was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up. However, Chase Petty, a former first-round pick, still has time to accrue value for Cincinnati, so we can’t definitively close the book on that trade yet. Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst. 2/18/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Odorizzi (337.0 IP, 107 ERA+, 4.9 bWAR) from Tampa Bay for Jermaine Palacios (did not reach Tampa Bay), +4.9 bWAR for Minnesota. For quite some time, this trade was the undisputed crown jewel of this era of Twins baseball. Odorizzi sat in the front half of three Minnesota pitching rotations between 2018 and 2020, providing consistent performance, though he was not a star. Palacios never reached the majors with Tampa but came back as a minor-league free agent and debuted with Minnesota in 2022. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Sonny Gray (303.2 IP, 142 ERA+, 7.7 bWAR), Francis Peguero (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for Chase Petty* (has not reached Cincinnati), +7.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Looking to shore up a rotation with several holes, Minnesota traded future value in Petty for present value in Gray, effectively trading a pitcher now for a pitcher tomorrow. Gray led the staff for two years and finished second in the AL Cy Young in 2023. Peguero was released following the 2023 season. Petty had been drafted in the first round just months before and has impressed in the low minors thus far. As the book is still out on Petty, I’m keeping Odorizzi in the top spot. 3/27/23: Minnesota acquires Michael A. Taylor (388 PA, 94 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR) from Kansas City for Evan Sisk (has not reached Kansas City), Steven Cruz (12.2 IP, 91 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), +1.9 bWAR for Minnesota. Taylor served as the everyday centerfielder in 2023, given injuries to both Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon. The Gold Glove centerfielder performed as expected defensively and showed some pop, though his bat has been mediocre overall. Cruz debuted for Kansas City in 2023, and Sisk finished the year at AAA. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Kyle Farmer (369 PA, 98 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Casey Legumina (13.2 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +1.8 bWAR for Minnesota. Without a starting-caliber shortstop (before the Carlos Correa signing), the Twins traded for Farmer. He’s since started games at second, third, and short—and seen time at first base and left field—as the top bench infielder in 2023 and is a platoon bat versus lefties. He was tendered a contract for 2024. Legumina had not debuted at the time of the trade - he had just been added to the 40-man roster - but has since thrown 13 mediocre innings, getting his first taste of MLB in 2023. 1/10/23: Minnesota acquires A.J. Alexy (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Christian Jimenez (has not reached Washington), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Alexy was a fringe roster addition as a depth reliever. He was waived shortly after the trade and claimed by the White Sox. Jimenez is an 18-year-old in Rookie ball, so we’re several years from knowing if the trade was an unforced error. 3/16/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Cave (922 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Luis Gil* (33.1 IP, 114 ERA+, 0.6 bWAR), +1.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Cave had yet to debut in MLB, but I include this because he almost immediately became a Twin. Cave spent a couple of years as a good fourth outfielder before spending a couple of years as a poor fourth outfielder. Gil had a promising short run in 2021 but is recovering from Tommy John. Overall WAR added: 18.0 Overall, the Twins have successfully bought over the offseason, bringing in MLB players in exchange for unproven prospects. Given the nature of buying, it almost always looks better in the near term than it will years later, as the prospects traded away develop, but given the group of prospects traded away, the only one that looks like it has even a moderate chance of biting the club is Petty in Cincinnati. I’d assume that the Twins would make that deal again, anyway. View full article

Lewis profiles much better at second base and Lee profiles much better at third. I’m going to continue beating this drum until Derek Falvey pries it from my cold, dead hands.

Ah, I get what you’re saying—that wasn’t my intention with that phrase. It was more of a “calm down, they will be MLB players, but they shouldn’t force it.” Just because they’re not on the roster at the beginning of the year doesn’t mean they won’t be on it at the end.