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    Offseason Handbook: Plugging the Holes in the 2025 Minnesota Twins' Outfield


    Greggory Masterson

    For the first time in almost a decade, a certain handsome German won't be taking up a post in the Twins' outfield next year. Add to his departure the team's perpetual need for high-quality fallback plans in center field, and there's a big opening the team needs to fill this winter.

    Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

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    Welcome to the 2025 Offseason Handbook! This year, we’re offering the format online only through our Caretakers program. The Offseason Handbook is a comprehensive look at what challenges the Twins face in the coming winter to field a competitive team in 2025.

    To become a Caretaker, visit this page. On top of receiving exclusive access to the Offseason Handbook, Caretakers also receive in-depth analysis from national writers you cannot find anywhere else. You will also receive exclusive access to events and an ad-free browsing option.

    In celebration of the Offseason Handbook’s release, we’re offering 20% off all Caretaker programs for the next week. Use the code HANDBOOK at checkout to receive 20% off your purchase!


    Looking ahead to next season, the Twins will be without two of their top four highest-paid players from 2024—a duo who combined for nearly 1,500 of the Twins’ outfield innings (35%). The players in question—Max Kepler and Manuel Margot—need to be replaced in playing time and role. The two occupied right field for 75% of the season and occupied distinct, full-season places on the Twins roster, with the exception of the time Kepler lost to injury.

    Kepler was one of the longest-tenured Twins, and has been the team’s primary right fielder since 2016. He provided above-average right field defense as a Twin throughout his career, though he has slowed with age and that glovework slid from elite to merely solid. In 2024, he played 105 games, with a mediocre performance at the plate, unable to build upon his torrid second half of 2023. Regardless of that letdown, he has been a fixture, and his playing time has to go somewhere.

    Margot was seemingly the inverse of Kepler. Whereas Kepler was shielded slightly against left-handed starters, Margot’s primary role was hitting lefties. Kepler’s consistency as a defender was mirrored by Margot’s sudden and mortifying inability to convert even routine balls into outs. Margot ended up playing in 129 games this season, third-most on the team, despite his minor role heading into the season. Did I mention he also led the team in pinch-hitting appearances, en route to a major-league record 35 appearances as a pinch-hitter in a season without a hit?

    That’s a lot of playing time that needs to be reassigned. Between the two, it’s more than one full-time player’s worth of plate appearances, a little corner outfield pop, a prominent pinch-hitter, and some center field depth. There isn’t a single player who can pick up that slack, but roster incumbents, internal options, and newcomers will be able to collectively fill those shoes—though the pinch-hitting bat doesn’t need to be an outfielder and can, frankly, be anyone with a pulse.

    First, let’s address the matter of an everyday right fielder. The Twins currently have two traditional, everyday-caliber corner outfielders on the roster: Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Wallner was the team’s Opening Day starter in left field, opposite Kepler. Although he was demoted early in the season, after being recalled in July, Wallner played like the player the Twins hoped he would be with a 149 OPS+, albeit over 261 total plate appearances.

    Larnach did not make the Opening Day roster, but he ended up registering more plate appearances in 2024 than any other Twins outfielder. He produced well, battling through lower body injuries all year, to the tune of a 116 OPS+. Because of his bumps and bruises, he led the team in appearances as a designated hitter, and shifting him to the outfield more often can open up playing time for other bats there.

    A betting man would assume that Larnach will be the Twins’ primary left fielder in 2024, leaving right field for Wallner and his elite arm. Alongside Byron Buxton in center, the everyday outfield is pretty clear. However, given the Twins’ propensity for platooning (along with the pragmatic need for more than three outfielders at any one time as depth), there’s still playing time to go around.

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    There is a pretty good chance that on June 1 E. Rodriquez will be the everyday RF and cover for Buxton when he is not in the OF.  He will be Kepler's rough equivalent defensively and he hits both LH & RH pitching.  He has a pretty ideal skillset to plug this hole.  They probably also add a RH OFer but Rodriguez is the answer especially for a team with limited financial capacity.

    I think we definitely need a RH OF who can adequately cover CF. Rodriguez and Rosario need more time in the minors, plus injuries and slumps happen. Castro can cover some innings in left, but we need a better option out there. RH OF and a first baseman should be our priority. Along with a LH reliever and possibly a veteran SP to keep Festa and Mathews in AAA at least to start the year.

    Just by subtraction, we are a better team without Margot. '24 Margot played bad ball all away around (one reason the Twins did so lousy). Plus blocking Keirsey & Martin from really helping the team. '25 w/o Margot, Keirsey & Martin should be finally free to be used advantageously as bench players. Keirsey will mainly sub Buxton & Martin wherever needed. 

    That leaves Castro to mainly focus on LF, yet free to roam where needed but a lot less than last year. Whew! Larnach will back up the (LH) cOF positions.

    Kepler played Target Field's RF superbly but RF isn't a premium defensive position so defensively It's not as big of a problem as some let on. I'm impressed with Wallner's improvement in defense after many years of not improving. After Wallner adjusted to the league's adjustment to the Twins' philosophy. Wallner will be an improvement offensively. 

    Where we'll really miss Kepler is his presence. As Tom presented on his podcast. in that games that Kepler played in they tended to win. Stats don't tell the whole story.

    We don't know when Emma will be able to advance into MLB, so when he does he'll make the Twins better. I don't see any holes. I see a much improved OF. We need to look elsewhere to focus on improving the Twins.

    1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I don't see any holes. I see a much improved OF. We need to look elsewhere to focus on improving the Twins.

    Replacing Max Kepler with Austin Martin is a massive downgrade in all aspects. I think I'd rather just use an unfinished Emmanuel Rodriguez on Opening Day.

    If Texas is selling Leody Tavares, I would be buying. He's a switch-hitter who can play defense at all three outfield positions.

    I'm as excited as anyone about Rodriguez's talent, potential, and future.  But he only played about half a year in 2024 and hasn't exactly en turned 22yo yet. (Soon). I'm willing to bet, healthy, he's ready by mid season. But asking him to suddenly play, and play well, for the Twins to begin 2025 is similar to many calling for Martin to be an everyday player last year after a half season of success at AAA. 

    But there's also little to no $ to spend to add much in the way of FA help. So what's the solution? Well, the FO can trade for a ML ready OF or young, recently graduated type who's controllable. This assumes there is such an OF available from someone who can afford to let him go because they've got enough to do so, and th3 Twina have pitching or infield depth they like and need.

    And they can't afford a major FA upgrade unless they move other payroll off the roster and weaken a different position.

    Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner are the primary OF. I'd be looking at someone like Randal Grichuk on a FA deal. He only made about $2M in 2024, and won't be getting his metal deal for 2025. With a solid 2024, he's probably hoping for a 2yr deal and something closer to $6 per. But the Twins aren't the only team with $ worries, so I'm betting he's looking at another 1yr deal at 33yo and possibly as low as $4-5M. But I'm OK with 2yrs if the annual is more in that range.

    He provides a good RH bat for the corner OF spots against LHP, but isn't a black hole against same side arms, meaning he isn't just a short side platoon bat. If there's a different option, I'm fine with that. But someone like Grichuk, who basically takes the $ available from a Paddack trade, fills a real need. He, or someone similar, doesn't have to play CF.

    Since I have little $ to work with. Castro can help in CF on a part time basis, and Rodriguez will hopefully be ready mid year, I'm running with Keirsey as a backup CF/OF and PR who only needs not embarrass with the bat to be useful as a role player and bottom of the order hitter. Helman is competition from the RH side. And then you have a HOPEFULLY improved Martin for additional depth and competition.

    IMO, this is the best way to build the OF for 2025 with what's on hand and dealing with a shoestring budget. Get a solid RH bat, and run through the rest of what you have for a depth/defensive piece that can be a PR.

     

    I think Larnach, Buxton and Wallner are your strating outfield next year left to right.

    Martin gets the utility role plus frequent backup in center. Castro can play outfield,  if he's still on the team. That's 5 guys to cover your outfield.

    I expect that Rodriguez and Keaschall could both get playing time in the outfield in 2025. If they get pulled in as early injury replacements for a few weeks, that can easily be  their intro to the majors.

    No advantage in signing someone to block a roster spot especially since there apparently no money.



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