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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    IMO, the 4-seam is a show pitch up or out of zone up or in & off the plate to hitters on either side. Basically, it’s a controllable pitch to change eye levels to make his sinker/slider combination to be more effective. 15% of a controllable pitch at 94-95 just off the plate can be of value.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati & it’s a real bowl of conservatism. Ownership included, which is probably no big surprise. With Bauer’s talent and the desperation the Reds have for arms to pair with their depth ridden young line-up, I would think there would have least been some conversation…..nothing reported. Seems he may have burned every bridge? He’d be a good fit in Cub’s land or Boston where people are going to come out & watch no matter who the team signs, IMO. Probably too much buzz & a distraction in NY?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Hoping Kirilloff can hit .270 with a OPS around .820, if so, he’s a great pick and a middle of the order guy with a potential OBP of .350. I really like him v. RH pitching as a stabilizing threat in the line-up. Need’s some more doubles with his gap power. Lee at 3B seems pretty logical for some time in August. Am hoping there is flexibility with Lewis! I keep thinking LF & hear it from nowhere else……..seems to make sense for ‘25! Am assuming Polanco is gone & they platoon Julien/Farmer as a solid duo at 2B through ‘24. Jenkins is an exciting guy when contrasting the buzz with guys from Orioles & other organizations when touting real promise. He seems real close to can’t miss success assuming health. A call-up by the deadline in ‘25 would be pretty fast track but he seems to be well on his way.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Getting outs is the idea! If he can continue to develop the sinker/fastball with less solid barrel contact, fantastic. 35% sinker - 40% slider - 15% changeup - 10% 4-seam sounds like a potentially nice mix for him. Hope he can get it under control & stay on the field with health as well.
  5. JD-TWINS
    In 2019 Sano had his best year hitting .246 with 34 HRS and an OPS+ of 139……,K rate of 41.8%. His OBP was 346. Walner’s first year in ‘23 had him hitting .249 with 14 HRS and an OPS + of 139……….K rate of 37.5%. His OBP was .370. Now Sano has a number of seasons that don’t reach these levels! …………the K rate % I used was K’s divided by AB’s. Walner has holes in his approach and he strikes out too much………..I just think with his youth - his advantage being a LH hitter, he has a shot at getting his K% down to around 30-32% and keep his OBP over .350……with his defense/arm and his power he’ll be a good player.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Wallner should have the opportunity to play a bunch more in ‘24………maybe 225% (near 600 PA’s) more plate appearances. Assuming he is able to hit .240 plus again, he could have 32 dingers and 25 doubles without improving at all. That would be a fantastic Sophomore season!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Gallo played left field 50 plus games and played 1B a similar amount as a LH bat to replace Kirilloff when hurt. Also, had potential to DH as LH bat……..75% of starters are right handed so Gallo was a better defensive flexibility choice than Sano and he was LH at the plate.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Alcantara, former Cy Young winner in his mid-twenties, for Vazquez & Larnach…………we would need to add another 2-3 guys, plus pay 40% of Vazquez’ salary.
  9. JD-TWINS
    We can’t come up with enough trade pieces to land Luzardo but Polanco & Rodriguez will net us Castillo????? Alcantara is young and a Cy Young winner that is just as inexpensive for the Marlins as he is for anyone else. His value, just like Robbie Ray, is down right now due to the surgeries and unknown performance/durability when coming back. The Mariners have a bunch of young arms and are lead by Castillo. They went through ‘23 & got 3 innings out of Ray. He’s not available until 2nd half of this year & he’s expensive. He’s essentially a non-contributor & not worth paying with the young depth they have on hand. They got rid of his salary - got a depth arm - got a platoon OF they can pair with Raley when he arrives from Tampa. To me Raley going to Seattle (big guy, that bats LH & plays OF) eliminates any desire they may have had for Kepler. Lopez was 3rd in baseball in strikeouts & 23rd in ERA & am assuming top 10 in innings pitched. He had two different lights out games in the playoffs. He’s a top 15 starter in the game - no doubt! Underestimated by many. IMO, Twins fans are spoiled after one year of the rotation having the best ERA. It seems everyone thinks they should have half dozen guys with ERA’s under 4.00. We’re all used to having a really good chance every day, after ‘23, based on who is starting - this is highly unusual for a rotation! I certainly think we should aspire to get as good as we can get - I love Castillo (I live in Cincinnati) & wanted a bigger push for him when Mahle was acquired…….. Don’t have any desire to trade for a guy who is out for a year in Alcantara while he will be re-habbing and HOPING to be a top flight arm again someday. Many potential paths to get better - hope we can land an arm!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure he’ll be at or north of $25M! ……don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor! 5 years for $22M - $25M - $27M - $27M - $27M with player option for year 4 & 5 to let him leave & explore the market at that point, to stroke his ego. We’ll have about an 85% chance of paying him through 5 years but he’s an awfully valuable guy. Trade Polanco….$10.5M in ‘24 freed up. Farmer gone in ‘25 - Kepler gone in ‘25 ………frees up additional $18M. Amend the budget back to $150M in ‘25 from the $135M this year with some secured broadcast deal. Don’t see the Montgomery deal happening but it seems this type of budgeting allows for a deal with Clevinger for 2yrs at $14M/yr & a player option for the 2nd year. Buxton isn’t going anywhere so the other FA signings to possibly be a DH aren’t going to fly - Julien’s best position is still DH as well. I think the “position spots” are covered internally. The only “affordable RH bat” as insurance for Miranda’s hitting, is Solano.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Lee cannot be part of this deal - understand that two fading veterans that have limited ceilings aren’t the centerpiece but their value needs to be respected! Rodriguez, along with Polanco & Kepler makes the Marlins offense respectable immediately in ‘24. Instead of Lee, possibly Miranda & Festa to get to the right total value. Two high Twins prospects (one being an arm) and 3 other guys that have had top end success at varying parts of their careers seems to be a reasonable package for a very valuable Luzardo! Would prefer to include another arm like Winder, to supplement on some level the loss of Luzardo, & keep Kepler.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Get your point - however, the team that won it all went out & got Scherzer & Montgomery at the deadline and had deGrom out with a year long injury. Lots of respect for pitching! The teams that field the best rosters AND are playing well at the end of the year are the teams in the mix. The Braves had to be near the top of runs scored and they WATCHED a lot of playoff baseball. My point is year to year, the end of regular season statistical positions don’t necessarily yield the Champion. Pitching can dominate in postseason play - that’s not a mystery nor anything new. IN the playoffs, the TWINS gave up a key homer from Thielbar that lead to a “low scoring” loss. Gray stunk it up in his start v. Astros. Ober dug the team a hole in his start, nothing terrible but a tone was set. Lopez - Paddack - Varland - Jax - Stewart - Duran all looked very good over the 2 postseason Series. Runs are always great but if one doesn’t control the other team’s offense it’s difficult to win games in a short series.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Since Buxton has played more than 100 games ONCE in 9 seasons, it’s a stretch for us here to think he’ll “get back to 120 game form”. That said, I’ve suggested 2-3 times he could play CF 35-40 games and at DH another 75-80 games in ‘24. Fingers crossed. Not sure how real it is for him to have health entering the season and then an even lower percentage for him to stay healthy enough to start 75% of the games. My slant here is an educated guess as well for August 31 of 2025……… I think we trade Rodriguez as part of a deal for a pitcher between now & then. Guessing Larnach & Miranda don’t make it either. Starters at the deadline in ‘25: Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff on the dirt - Jeffers as catcher……Lewis - Jenkins - Wallner in the grass & Buxton as the DH. Vazquez - Martin - Severino - Castro on the bench. Will be fun to re-visit in another 18-20 months!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Just don’t want to (see the need to) spend the $$ for a guy that would play much less (be NEEDED less) and strikes out at a high rate. I’d take my chances with Castro & Martin (if Buxton crumbles) and their ability to hit .240 and play a decent CF w/o striking out as much. Also, they both bring speed to the line-up. Both available v. LH pitching. Taylor can run as well & obviously is a RH bat but he was having leg & (I think) back issues after July 1 last season…….already have fragile Byron! Bottom line is he signs somewhere else. I would think for his cost & the thump in his bat, his agent should call the CUBS.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Nothing is a certainty - he lost weight because of a new discipline and new strengthening workout. Not suggesting he’s an ACE because he is eating more salads. The main focus of my comments were directed at durability. If he’s pitching with health, he’ll probably be pretty good…….I think we agree in principal.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Agree with the broad strokes here…….Bader signing for $10.5M is just crazy - that’s like his version of the Ohtani deal - I was shocked! Maybe Randal Grichuk is an add in OF for depth at all 3 positions - agreed though, too much cost at $9-$11M……..he’s got good pop in his bat and has a career OPS of .769. RH bat in OF. Seems like a good potential add. Other guy I see lots of value in, despite your slight above, is Clevinger. He threw a bit in ‘22 after returning from arm surgery. He then threw 131 innings in ‘23 with an ERA of 3.77. Was 9-9 with the lowly White Sox. I think he’s worth $13 - $14M/year …..give him a player option for year 2 so he has both security & independence with a deal. He’s the replacement for Mahle from the beginning of ‘23 season’s staff in both ability & cost.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Games seem a little more exciting with the 28 man in September! I think the roster limitations and a maximum of options on a player are both in place so the rich clubs can’t stash players and water down the rest of the League’s talent pool. Tough for me to argue against this. IMO - 26 man with a decent AAA team to supplement in times of injury, all bases are covered.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - work with him in Twin’s system for 3-5 months (March - July) and make a decision. Worthwhile on paper. Fingers crossed.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Maybe Larnach as well?………the reason we don’t have perfect success in the draft and the draft order is that evaluating young talent is subjective on many levels, work ethic varies greatly player to player, and the biggest reason - baseball is hard & not many guys make it from any draft class!!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Lopez has lost a bunch of weight & become a workout fiend over past 18 mos. - seems to not be a coincidence he’s been durable. The Driveline guys seem to help pitchers with proper form/approach as well. Gotta point out again that team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He went 1-1 in the playoffs with a pick off at 2B to end a rally in his win v. Toronto. Other start v. Houston was a stinker. Gray was 8-8 in ‘23 & obviously deserved better run support but the results regarding team’s record are real. His playoff starts & those results are real. I honestly think that Varland will be a .500 pitcher with a serviceable ERA at 4.50 or better - seems durable as well. IMO, after seeing the innings from Lopez and with his 2 lights out starts in the playoffs, he’s the real ACE coming out of 2023.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Farmer is around in the meantime…….Eddie is still young and needs to see a lot more pitching……..both of us hope he gets there v. lefties!
  22. JD-TWINS
    #1-#5……Pablo - Lewis - Jenkins - Lee - Jeffers
  23. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers displaces Buxton down to 21 or so…….maybe?
  24. JD-TWINS
    He’s talented - he’ll be OK. It’s between his ears, a mentality that needs to be tweaked. Again, his coaches need to help him improve with this. A concern for me is that his demeanor seems very rigid with this issue & my concern is he may not be real open to any criticism. We’ll see.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Am sure it’s not easy but it’s his job. He’s got another season to start to improve - wish him luck!
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