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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    So, if he were a 3 year college player that was now 22, his path forward should be AA this Spring - AAA by August or for sure next April, or a disappointment in progress. (basically, a Brooks Lee progression) He’s 20 though. Being in the Show at 22 or a disappointment in his progress/development seems harsh to me. Wallner got his first taste of the Show at 24………..Lee has a pretty good pedigree to date through his college years and draft pick status - he’s starting in AAA at age 23 and he’s the next guy on the Prospect List. Seems Rodriguez has plenty of time to develop!
  2. JD-TWINS
    A .340 OBP & .257 BA with an OPS+ of 106 all point to a guy that should be in the line-up if possible. 2.6 WAR with 358 AB’s projects to a WAR over 4.0 if used for a full year. He may regress - he may improve? No reason to think any of us know which. Decent defense at 3 positions with 33 PLUS steal speed is even more of a reason to expect this guy to be a big part of the Club in ‘24. 32 XBH in 358 AB’s is a nice rate. Frankly, I can’t imagine Buxton playing more than 40-50 games in CF, & that’s a stretch for me. Assuming 45 starts - that’s 1050 innings left to cover. Gordon/Martin combination have to cover at least 40% of those innings in my opinion. If Gordon hits at all in Spring Training, I think he’s the left handed hitting back up in CF with Castro getting another shot at some LF v. LH pitching - resting Wallner while playing most innings in CF, up to half the time. Gordon can also sprinkle in some innings at 2B if absolutely necessary due to someone getting nicked. If Martin displaces Gordon, he too can play 2B on as absolutely necessary basis. Martin’s options and the fact that Gordon hits LH (w/zero options) gives Gordon the nod out of Spring Training. To me, Castro will start 110 games and play in another 35-40 off the bench. Gordon/Martin will battle for last roster spot & balance of CF innings.
  3. JD-TWINS
    He’s only 20 is what I take away the most. If he has the same stats with no media/TD fans player ranking & expectations, he’d be a really promising “young guy” in the system……..1975 speak. Anyway, if he’s at AA all year and strikes out a little less while maintaining a similar OBP of .375 plus, down due to a few more swings - being a bit more aggressive……….that’s great progress. End of Kepler’s deal & Buxton’s dubious availability shouldn’t influence this kid’s timing to the Show. AAA in ‘25, with maybe a late call up in September seems to be pretty fast track to me. I thought for the past 8-9 months that he was 22 or so due to the predictions/talk of him coming up late ‘24. Coming to Spring Training with high hopes in ‘26 at age 22 seems to be a fairly aggressive progression to me!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Agree, it’s pitch mix & control……..I guess that’s kind of pitching 101. Ober & Thielbar are maxed out at or below Sands velocity. They both “know how to pitch” and can hit spots/throw strikes as needed. He’ll either adjust (with coach & catcher help) to a fresh pitch mix, with decent control or he’ll wash out getting his fastball hammered while walking too many. Fingers crossed.
  5. JD-TWINS
    IMO it’s about command with his pitches. He got down to around 3 walks per 9 in St Paul last year & that works. Ober throws similar if not lesser fastball velocity but he spots it pretty well. Sinker, cutter, & curveball (as you mentioned) should take up closer to 75% of his pitches - getting the fastball down to 25-30%. This is obvious, to get guys out routinely. His challenge is can he use that type of pitch mix & not walk a bunch of guys. If yes, it seems he could be pretty solid.
  6. JD-TWINS
    All good……..I struggle with very few acknowledgments in TD about Gordon’s 2022. However, Trevor Larnach’s lack of real success seems to be OK & he “needs 1500 AB’s” to know where he will be at as a hitter. I don’t dislike the idea of continuing to give Larnach opportunities & I think Martin has a better probable future than Gordon with the organization. Gordon will get a shot if he’s near a reasonable offensive player this Spring. Can potentially get positive contribution - can groom to be a trade piece - can potentially DFA.
  7. JD-TWINS
    The “Other One” would routinely sell out the ballpark! Been listening since Abraxas, roughly 1971. My college age brother had a copy and got scolded by our Mom for having it in the house around his 9 year old brother. An interesting, artful jacket cover! Hoping “this one” gives us a small dose of the guitar player’s success.
  8. JD-TWINS
    I agree, frankly, I think Miranda could hit .450 this Spring and not make the 26 man roster. Santana signing sealed his fate ………if he’s really good they may trade him but doubtful. He’s a perfect offset for Kirilloff at 1B starting in ‘25. Bubba Thompson has speed…….been released multiple times. Gordon had a terrible start last year and broke his leg May 16. 2022 Gordon hit .272 - 28 doubles - 9 HR in 405 AB’s with the Big Club. He started at 3 positions regularly. Not sure what’s not to like there. Much better than anything I saw in Thompson’s history. He may not fit the Twins roster but he’ll get a shot if he’s at any reasonable level of offense in Spring Training. Martin hit .260 in AAA with no power. I like him going forward but don’t see any definitive distinction for him over Gordon.
  9. JD-TWINS
    The # of starts for Martin aren’t there in Mpls. - I think 3-4 a week is a real stretch with Castro & Farmer ahead of him………..Gordon is out of options……biggest reason. He either makes the Team or they move him. 405 AB’s in ‘22. He had 28 doubles & 9 HR & hit .272…………..All in the Show, not, AA or a Fall League. Started at 2B much of the beginning of the season then played LF & CF. Started 43 games in CF. Experience and belief in a guy that’s done it in the Majors. He deserves a shot. I don’t think Gordon is necessarily ahead of Martin but there’s no reason to put Martin ahead of Gordon until they both get a look this Spring.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like he at least matches up to Ober in Mph - right? Ober is very effective with 3 pitches, principally. SWR supposedly has 4-5 pitches. Seems his command is what will make or break him. Facing essentially all guys older than him leaves me with some optimism that he can continue to refine and be better.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Gallo hit terribly from late May through the year. He wasn’t going to be on the Playoff roster (obvious by early July) but hung around as insurance. He played 4 positions and a lot more 1B than expected with Kirilloff’s problems. They had a couple extra spots in September & he played some as needed. They were paying him either way so why not use him to the nth degree? Not a great signing is probably an understatement at $11M but he contributed with his glove regularly & with his availability…….handful of exciting HR’s.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure Santana had 23 HR in ‘23 & Gallo had 21 last year…….one is considered a HR guy. Santana is less versatile but every bit as good at 1B. Similarity is that he’ll be available! $6M less money spent. Absolutely no problem with signing Santana. Great history posting in the lineup whenever needed combined with way better defense than Miranda at 1B. Good power and good history v. LH pitching. Miranda has options if there’s an opening. He needs to prove he’s a major league hitter once again - big reduction on pressure to make that happen immediately with addition of Santana.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Making a Pennant push & there’s no signs that Severino will be ready for that on Opening Day. Miranda is an offensive crapshoot that doesn’t play very good defense so reducing that risk was wise. Martin’s not playing any 1B in the near term. Anybody can be worse than expected. Hope he holds together! Hasn’t missed extensive time since 2014 - another reason to have him paired with Kirilloff. He lines up with Farmer & possibly Martin as guys that can be plugged in v. LH pitching and excel.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Seems Kirilloff owns 1B v. RH pitching, so maybe 70-75% of games. That leaves 150-180 AB’s minimum for Santana at 1B. Also, he seems to be the probable DH when Buxton plays OF so Castro can be ready in a flex role off the bench as needed……,another 150-180 AB’s. Pinch hitting - some starts for rest……he may pick up another 60-80 AB’s. 350-400 AB’s and that’s with perfect health with Kirilloff……maybe more? Hoping for 15 HR and some good 1B play. Good clubhouse guy as well! Nice pick up to mitigate the risk with Miranda.
  15. JD-TWINS
    It seems that there’s room for improvement with Festa but he just doesn’t have 3 pitches - they All grade out toward Plus pitches…….that’s my assumption of a difference.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Gallo hit poorly for sure - tough to justify, but he was a professional with experience and had the ability to play 4 positions as others healed & he posted whenever needed. There’s value in the lack of disruption & worry amongst the team - a real value. Gordon is a cheerleader type. - Totally Agree though, guys gotta perform & then the intangibles can be factored into their value.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Correct - gotta be able to add value between the lines - no charity on the 26 man! Santana v. taking a risk with Miranda for 1st, quality of play & then, secondarily, experience & leadership tips it to Santana.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like Sgt Hulka………..
  19. JD-TWINS
    He can’t hit anymore so I think that’s the Yankees real rub with him!…?!?
  20. JD-TWINS
    Hoping they still pick up an arm! If they do that, it’s reasonable to have Varland, DeSclafani, & Paddack all in the same roll. Fill the 5th starter spot & throw in 2-3 inning relief spots. Paddack & Varland are sure effective in short burts.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Pablo seems to have an advantage on the #1 spot based on last year’s results……..am hoping he’s challenged by Montgomery after Twins sign him. Fingers crossed.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Ober threw approximately 4-5 starts (around 21 innings) in St Paul so those innings, with similar results to the 144 would get him awfully close to the 3.3 WAR posted by Lopez. Good supposed #3 guy!!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Thompson for sure……..he’s fast………seems to be his top attribute, maybe only attribute? Staumont - Duarte are the only potential options to release……….Duarte has been with team for a week, so I think he’ll probably get exposed to other clubs. Maybe other clubs roster spots are or have filled & they can hang on to Duarte?
  24. JD-TWINS
    The Tigers traded Lorenzen at the deadline & lost Rodriguez to free agency. They were replaced by Maeda & Flaherty……..certainly not a net gain there. They have 2-3 pretty good young guys that are on the come. Twins were 14-5 against the last 4 teams standing last year. Astros - Rangers - Diamondbacks - Phillies. Gray’s starts in ‘23, the Team was 15-18. Those were the real outcomes that they need to match or better in ‘24. ERA is great - quality starts are great - they both definitely give a team a better chance to win! However, between Varland/Festa/DeSclafani slotted in #5 spot, they have a very good chance at going .500 in a combined 36 starts……fair? Gray picked a guy off 2nd on a terrible base running play by Guerrero to escape a jam. He threw 5 innings for the W. His start v. Astros was sub par. ……….fair? Paddack needs to be good & needs to hold up. …….if there’s an issue they’ll have to make a move for an arm at the deadline. Am still holding out some hope for a pitching move over the next 4-5 weeks. Any reasonable health from Buxton (100 games between CF & DH) a mild rebound from Correa (.265 BA & 20 HR) the 3 young guys at 2B - 3B - LF available from the season’s start all point to a much better offensive year. Am assuming Kepler & Vazquez will be hitting above .220 at mid-season in ‘24…..this will help as well. Gotta be a top 6 team in the AL……..can’t control where we sit in the NL. Have potential to win the Pennant with one Starter addition to the Staff.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Not too many trades for a $35M SS with 5 years left on contract, coming off his worst season at the plate. SF & Mets already turned him away & nobody outbid the Twins just 12 months ago when he hit .290 the previous season……..He’s all ours! IMO, Lewis goes to 1B & Kirilloff to LF so Lee can play 3B ……OR Lewis goes to LF & Kirilloff stays at 1B. Lee-Lewis-Kirilloff-Julien all need to be in line-up by the Playoffs or worst case by Opening Day ‘25. Gotta assume either Buxton or Santana will be slated at DH this season, so that’s probably not an open slot for those 4 guys. Dont understand the WAR concern, if the guy isn’t in the line-up regularly, regardless of where he plays, his WAR isn’t budging. So, either we play the best guys to maximize offensive WAR for all individuals concerned and live with whoever gets the Defensive WAR credit…………it’s about scoring more runs than opponents and winning games, not maximizing a specific player’s WAR & associated value.
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