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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    He’s near elite with his glove……overall play at 1B! I still think that if Buxton is in CF & a RH pitcher is throwing, Kirilloff will see most starts at 1B. Castro can DH some as well from left side.
  2. JD-TWINS
    So, after a very solid season in 2023, with Playoff games won (3of6) and attendance at 1,974,000 things should be looking up - right? I took your $160M payroll for ‘23 and divided by attendance and the spend per fan would have been $81. You said $78, which means payroll was actually where I thought (and where TD readers have seen it for 6-10 months - in the $154M area). I think all of your payroll totals are skewed a bit but whatever. Is it realistic that ticket prices go up from an average of $33.89 each to say, $34.50 in ‘24? $.61 each? Is it realistic that attendance goes up to 2.1 million in ‘24?……..126,000 more tickets sold over 81 games - reasonable? $33.89 x 1,974,000 = $66,899,000 is 2023 $:34.50 x 2,100,000 = $72,450,000 is 2024 This, to me, seems like reasonable forecasting of sales. NET GAIN of revenue at $5,551,000. The TWINS are spending $4M less than 2021 & $12M less than 2022……$30M less than last years inflated spend. No problem with “right sizing” but there has to be some basis for the reduction. $7M less TV $$$ - $5.55M more in ticket sales - oh, and this means concessions and merchandise will be up. Oh, and then there’s inflation on the other sales items as well. Going backward $10-$15M I may have been OK with - the $122M total is not a business spending reasonably to progress its success.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Castro - Buxton - Santana - Lewis - Kepler - Correa - Farmer - Catcher - Margot Castro & Satana can flip with pitching changes to RH. Buxton has good reverse splits v. RH as well. I think this is our typical initial line-up v. LH pitching. Order may be moved around considerably but these 9 guys make sense.
  4. JD-TWINS
    It seems I’ve seen in TD posts thatcher was under 3.00ERA in 2nd half of ‘23….,.wildly wrong? I didn’t & don’t look at pitching Stat cast graphs, etc. …… Ivdid see him throw v. the Yankees Monday and this “fastball rise” data seems strange. He was throwing darts at the knees with his fastball. It looked even quicker than the 92-94 he was registering - a bit of a peculiar delivery. Anyway, he dotted the ball in the black to Soto for called strike 3 & that was impressive.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Both of the other guys K too much but both had 21 HR in ‘23 to Margot’s 4…….hoping he’s healthy so we get the good side of his defense. Similar amount of AB’s for Duvall - assuming Taylor had more AB’s?
  6. JD-TWINS
    Well put! Lee - Miranda - Larnach - Martin NEED to tear up AAA for some period of time…….3 weeks? ………2 months? Something! If & when they do they’ll see time in the Show. May be July, may be September or may be June of ‘25 but they are coming. In the meantime the smart thing is steady veterans for depth, who may cost more than we’d like or may not have a high ceiling or may not seem special………they have a 90% sure floor and that’s how a team reduces risk & gives themselves a chance to win regularly……..IMO.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Bravo!! ……Completely agree. IMO, Lee isn’t around much for a few months and if hitting in St Paul he’ll come over and spell CC & Lewis & DH some for the 2nd half. Julien & Farmer have 2B covered. Lee may need to jump in with an injury to someone, that’s it in ‘24. In ‘25, assuming Lee has proved himself, Lewis is in LF or 1B or both with 25 games at 3B to rest Lee……Lee is full time at 3B. Kirilloff at 1B & some LF as well.
  8. JD-TWINS
    First, the 200 innings comment is just that, a comment. The number of innings he mentioned when interviewed has nothing to do with whether he should be extended. No real reason to debate how many innings he may pitch - a good total would be 160 plus anything IMO. Not very many guys are throwing 200 innings in the 2020’s. Suggested in the article that Ober might sign for 4-5 years, like A. Ashby, at a rate of $20M. If Ober performs he will be getting more than $20M over the 3 years of arbitration! Seems to me that $30-$32M for 5 years extended past ‘24 is fair. Maybe this isn’t prudent but it seems fair…..he gets security and the Twins may save $20M or more.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I liked Duvall the best - just didn’t like Pham due to defensive limitations. I think Castro will start 80 games in CF v. RH pitching. Margot, to me, is the #3 guy in CF. Buxton has good reverse splits so he probably starts in 45 games v. RH pitching in CF. Margot gets games there with injury or he’s in LF v. LH pitching……also, plays LF when Wallner shifts to RF to rest Kepler 20 games. Margot also gets time in CF if it makes sense to move Castro mid-game for some strategic reason.
  10. JD-TWINS
    As my wife would say, OMG!! The revelation here that few at TD seem to value………”This is supposed to be a Championship Roster, not a rookie training ground.” Total respect for the young core the Twins put on display!! Kirilloff - Julien - Wallner - Lewis - Jeffers……..Lee & Martin & Varland & Festa coming. Vazquez - Castro - Farmer - Margot - Santana ……a group of Vets to guide the guys above. To me, nobody is “blocked” if they can perform. Don’t recall the Twins stashing talent in AAA too often. FO will make appropriate moves if we have a glut……. i.e. Arraez & Polanco no longer being part of our string of 2B capable at Major League level. The Yankees have Torres - Rizzo - Judge - Lamahiue - Verdugo - Soto ……..last year starting Volpe as a rookie was a big deal. Betts - Freeman - Heyward - Muncy - T. Hernandez - Ohtani ………Outman played in CF last year and has excelled. As a rule, they keep adding Vets to Win!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Getting Margot is not flashy but he’s a solid, experienced OF from a good organization & he has playoff experience. Pretty decent v. LH pitching. Can’t sweat every traded young guy! If he had a Gold Glove, the FO knew about it!! The talent evaluators obviously didn’t think his offensive upside was going to come to fruition. Period. Margot - Vazquez - Santana - Farmer are a good cross section of vets providing depth for the up & coming young nucleus. These 4 with Correa - Kepler - Buxton provide a very stable group for success. Also, a number of vets in the Pen …….very professional team overall. (Okert - Jackson - Topa - Stewart - Thielbar are all guys in their 30’s)
  12. JD-TWINS
    No point in considering Kike’s fate as a Twin or anywhere, he won’t help anyone. 75 & 74 OPS+ the past 2 seasons.
  13. JD-TWINS
    IMO, really needed to add for CF 1st and then able to play corner OF as needed. Pham never fit the bill for me. Duvall seemed reasonable at $8-$9M……21 HR in 90+ ballgames last year. Taylor had to have been stuck on more than one year or on some elevated salary expectation? Would have thought that each party would have pursued each other. Surely, he wanted more than last year’s $4.5M but l am surprised that the two parties couldn’t finalize anything.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Not sure what your access is like? If you can get Prime for $10/Month year round with lots of stuff to watch, you can do what I do from Cincinnati. I have an MLB subscription through Prime & it’s $149/year. I get ALL 30 teams games. Watch the Twins from my home probably 120 games per year & have streamed them on my computer in Turkey & other countries in Europe over past 2 seasons. I think it’s a great value. Only games that are blocked are a couple Friday nights when Apple TV gets the rights to a game. 158 Twins games - it’s $120 annually for Prime & $149 for MLB subscription. $269/158 games is $1.70/game if you only watch Twins games. Plus you get a bunch of offerings from Prime.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Buxton will be the DH more often than not & Castro will be in CF v. RH pitching………Buxton does have good reverse splits though.
  16. JD-TWINS
    He looked overmatched (as did Camargo) against Cortes of the Yanks today.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Castro checked all the boxes last year. Good defense at 4 positions & OPS+ of 106. Hernandez is washed…..IMO. This has to be some article started to try and gain leverage in the market for the player. ’22 OPS+ of 75 ’23 OPS+ of 74
  18. JD-TWINS
    Love it!
  19. JD-TWINS
    2022……..$134 Million 2021……….$125 Million 2024………..$122 Million 2019………..$119 Million Acknowledged 2023 was a $10M overspend. Tired of hearing about BAM money - no BAM money in ‘22 - right? 2023, with normal progression should have been $144M & it was $10M higher. 2024………More attendance - at least as much if not more Revenue Share - Inflation. How can they only be $3M more than 5 years ago??
  20. JD-TWINS
    NO, hopefully to Hernández, already detailed in another post specific to him. Negative offensively!!! Wallner is in LF - I understand this is a defensive metrics post but Martin may not make the 26 man roster. Castro, due to Buxton’s “best case” 50% in the grass ……is a close 2nd in CF. Lee won’t be on the 26 man so IMO, Julien is the guy at 2B, since he’s a real option. Santana is obviously the best choice for defense but realistically, Kirilloff is there 65-70% of the time
  21. JD-TWINS
    First, I need a dictionary for the “penurious” behavior, or lack of, displayed by the organization. We don’t have income clarity. Whole bunch of sources and ways to get to the theoretical end. Per your sentiments, whatever, let it go. Fair enough. What seems to be clear or something that provides some clarity are the levels of payroll historically. Again from me, 2019-$119M …2020-Covid ….2021-$125M …2022-$134M ….2023-$154M. 2023 seems to have been an extravagant year with payroll at about $10M over what would have been expected based on trailing years. Why are the Twins back to spending between 2019 & 2021 levels?? That’s my question/concern.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Agreed………..Nick Gordon’s career OPS+ is 92 just for a comparison. (a year at 35 & a year at 79 to get there)…….KiKe deserves to be unemployed IMO.
  23. JD-TWINS
    his career stats are mediocre or less…….his career OPS v. LH is .801. not exactly a guy that’s moving the needle nor worth tying up a roster spot. If he had reasonable ability he’d be in a roster IMO.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Kiké in ‘23: 465 AB’s & a -.1 WAR ….. .237 BA ……. 74 OPS+ Farmer in ‘23: 336 AB’s & a 1.7 WAR ….. .256 BA ……. 98 OPS+ Both hit 11 HR in ‘23…..Hernández had 38% more AB’s. Farmer is solid at all 3 positions he plays on the dirt. His offensive career stats are better than Kike’s. Farmer was Twins LEADER in wins - losses when in the line-up…….. 70-50!! Why in HEdouble hockey sticks would they move Farmer to sign Hernandez?????
  25. JD-TWINS
    Seems most want him to steal - “just don’t get hurt.”……,,, Real problem with this!! My point is you can’t have it both ways. 20 steals, realistically, takes 23-25 attempts. To me that’s way too many risks for such a fragile guy. He’s historically as fragile as anyone in MLB. Thinking that a guy who’s going to be 30 can be helped in his 12th season affiliated with Professional Baseball & is going to learn how to slide with Molitor’s help, at this point, seems like something only seen possible/probable on paper. I think 6-7 steals is plenty - 5 of those with a guy on third base so it’s essentially a free pass. Maybe once or twice because the pitcher sees no threat of him going. If you steal bases, you are a threat…….then pitchers try to dissuade you by throwing to 1B ………more chances for injury. If Ryan Jeffers was going to hit 25 HR & 25 doubles and play 110-120 games nobody would be clamoring for the need for him to steal bases to be an effective player. 45 steals over past SIX SEASONS. Why do we think 20 is now some low threshold. ……”….I feel good.” ……that can’t be the justification. I’d love to see him steal 40 bases - he’s got the talent and is as fast as anyone. It’s not practical. As a group nearly everyone says….”…..,preserve yourself, dial it back a bit” or “……just don’t run into any walls……” But go ahead and steal your second highest base total of your career.
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