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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Has Kuechel swallowed his pride & retired? If not, he may be the May 25th signing to an MiLB deal with an August opt out for him? Lorenzen threw a high pitch count, no hitter after joining the Phillies and then went in the tank. He’ll get signed as a high test Bullpen arm at worst. My assumption is that at this point, Lorenzen & Clevinger are just waiting for the “Spring Training” injuries to start wearing down a particular staff. They’ll be signed in 10 days, somewhere. Seems the Orioles have a couple big question marks with their staff already - 2 guys that were keys in their rotation mix are down……as an example. For 3 months I’ve been promoting Clevinger for the Twins at $16M/yr for two years. 131 innings in his 2nd year back from surgery with a 3.71 ERA. ………maybe he signs another “prove it deal” for only 1 year ……….with a mutual option for the 2nd year? Festa - SWR are every bit as likely to succeed as Cueto, Kuechel, Odo, etc. those guys are a stretch for any organization let alone one that’s aspiring to get to League Championship series.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Did Martin get hurt? He’s been 12th - 13th roster spot or next man up from AAA for 4 months. Nikko Goodrum is such a long shot that I cannot think of a scenario where he’s on the Team. To me, Martin - Larnach & then this discussion of other depth starts. inclusive of Keirsey.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Where’s Martin in the mix…….he was the 13th guy 2 weeks ago on many TD generated rosters?
  4. JD-TWINS
    ?????? He hit .270 with a .348 OBP and a 117 OPS+ in 2023……..unless he has some sort of mental breakdown he’s starting at 1B v. RH pitching ……70% of the games.
  5. JD-TWINS
    A start like last year would be wonderful. The young guys will be starting their first full year in The Show - excitement - pressure - etc. At the end of April the Twins were 17-12 in 2023. A much better May/June would be the thing to shoot for in ‘24. Team was 12-15 x two months………this was their problem stretch! ……………….. Generally, I do not understand the angst regarding the position player line-up whatsoever……..if Buxton can actually play CF 40 % of the time and Kepler isn’t completely ice cold for the first 3 months, this line-up has pop up and down v. RH or LH pitching!! ”Best bullpen in A.L.” is being predicted by Baseball People. Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff/Santana along with Jeffers/Vazquez is really solid! 3 of 5 starters back in rotation along with 4-5 guys to fill the other 2 spots. Wallner’s arm in LF next to Buxton’s range & Kepler’s smooth RF ………this is a very good Playoff outfield! Anybody can get hurt on any team…….. nothing can be done about it ………next guy up and push forward. No reason to think the doom & gloom will only be an issue with the TWINS.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Infield v. LH pitching: Lewis - Correa - Farmer - Santana….. is very solid on offense & defense. Infield v. RH pitching: Lewis (occasionally Castro) - CC - Julien - Kirilloff …….weaker defensively but more power Don’t see Lee denting this group until at least July…….he needs to solidify his hitting in St Paul
  7. JD-TWINS
    Lee hasn’t hit well enough to push anyone of the assumed 13 position players. Kirilloff has 20 plus HR power and had a 117 OPS+ last year. He’s not going anywhere. Julien at first is like some game played with baseball cards as a kid, IMO.
  8. JD-TWINS
    5 runs on 3 hits is being pretty efficient! 1 guy LOB all day. 5 arms got them through 6 shutout innings - nice effort.
  9. JD-TWINS
    He looks pretty good in the Pen Friday afternoon! Doesn’t look like he’s throwing with any discomfort. He can hang in Florida a few extra weeks - no problem.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Varland - Funderburk - Alcalá are the Top 3 guys that can bring some momentum & ability to the Staff/Team. Larnach is first OF up since they don’t need CF depth anymore…….Buxton goes down, they still have Castro & Margot in a platoon. He can also fit as a DH v. RH pitching. Lee in July, IF needed. Farmer - Santana - Castro for infield depth is impenetrable unless there’s an injury. No Miranda - No Martin in any near-term plans.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Don’t really care if he’s not ready until May 15……;would be nice to get 80 innings in ‘24 at some point though.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I do know Oliva was kept in minors longer because he didn’t play OF anywhere near average. He then tore the League up as a Rookie in ‘64. Killebrew was too young to impress at that level for first 3-4 years. Mauer was pretty hyped and viewed in that light pretty much out of the gate regardless of the stats & early injury. Handful of Grand Slams and consistency during regular season, when in the line-up, has Lewis in that context………..particularly with his star play in the postseason. Definitely looks like he has “it”!
  13. JD-TWINS
    So 12 months ago Farmer was the full time starting SS. Right? 70-50 is the record he had in games played……do the guys he displaced whenever he entered a game not get credit for being involved in a win???? Are defensive replacements put into games because they have low value or because there is a level of confidence in their play? Saying Larnach might beat out Farmer is ………,,won’t go there.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I do not think Santana has a chance to start ahead of Kirilloff v. RH pitching. Makes no sense. ……..potentially, people stating Santana is the “regular guy at 1B” are same that also think Brooks Lee will be at 2B & Julien will take over 1B. Silly, IMO.
  15. JD-TWINS
    2023 Twins best plus/minus ……..Kyle Farmer 70-50 team record in his games played. (he would have played more but was out a month after getting hit in the face) Not going anywhere! He’s adept defensively at all 3 spots on the dirt & the perfect platoon with Julien. …….He’ll start at Shortstop 20-25 games……..maybe 15 at 3B since Castro will help there as well. 30% at 2B v. LH pitching so that’s conservatively 45 games. Starts 80-90 games total and sees time in 110-120.
  16. JD-TWINS
    If they are facing a RH pitcher & Buxton starts in CF………I like the other guys playing their positions (Wallner-Kepler-Julien) with Castro as the DH. Do I think he’ll have opportunities (lots) to play CF & Buxton could be the DH, sure! It will be interesting to see the Santana/Kirilloff split at 1B.
  17. JD-TWINS
    I think the Kirilloff/Santana platoon at 1B could be a 25-30HR combo with OPS in the .825 range……….this is just Santana from the right side & obviously, Kirilloff from the left side.
  18. JD-TWINS
    He’s near elite with his glove……overall play at 1B! I still think that if Buxton is in CF & a RH pitcher is throwing, Kirilloff will see most starts at 1B. Castro can DH some as well from left side.
  19. JD-TWINS
    So, after a very solid season in 2023, with Playoff games won (3of6) and attendance at 1,974,000 things should be looking up - right? I took your $160M payroll for ‘23 and divided by attendance and the spend per fan would have been $81. You said $78, which means payroll was actually where I thought (and where TD readers have seen it for 6-10 months - in the $154M area). I think all of your payroll totals are skewed a bit but whatever. Is it realistic that ticket prices go up from an average of $33.89 each to say, $34.50 in ‘24? $.61 each? Is it realistic that attendance goes up to 2.1 million in ‘24?……..126,000 more tickets sold over 81 games - reasonable? $33.89 x 1,974,000 = $66,899,000 is 2023 $:34.50 x 2,100,000 = $72,450,000 is 2024 This, to me, seems like reasonable forecasting of sales. NET GAIN of revenue at $5,551,000. The TWINS are spending $4M less than 2021 & $12M less than 2022……$30M less than last years inflated spend. No problem with “right sizing” but there has to be some basis for the reduction. $7M less TV $$$ - $5.55M more in ticket sales - oh, and this means concessions and merchandise will be up. Oh, and then there’s inflation on the other sales items as well. Going backward $10-$15M I may have been OK with - the $122M total is not a business spending reasonably to progress its success.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Castro - Buxton - Santana - Lewis - Kepler - Correa - Farmer - Catcher - Margot Castro & Satana can flip with pitching changes to RH. Buxton has good reverse splits v. RH as well. I think this is our typical initial line-up v. LH pitching. Order may be moved around considerably but these 9 guys make sense.
  21. JD-TWINS
    It seems I’ve seen in TD posts thatcher was under 3.00ERA in 2nd half of ‘23….,.wildly wrong? I didn’t & don’t look at pitching Stat cast graphs, etc. …… Ivdid see him throw v. the Yankees Monday and this “fastball rise” data seems strange. He was throwing darts at the knees with his fastball. It looked even quicker than the 92-94 he was registering - a bit of a peculiar delivery. Anyway, he dotted the ball in the black to Soto for called strike 3 & that was impressive.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Both of the other guys K too much but both had 21 HR in ‘23 to Margot’s 4…….hoping he’s healthy so we get the good side of his defense. Similar amount of AB’s for Duvall - assuming Taylor had more AB’s?
  23. JD-TWINS
    Well put! Lee - Miranda - Larnach - Martin NEED to tear up AAA for some period of time…….3 weeks? ………2 months? Something! If & when they do they’ll see time in the Show. May be July, may be September or may be June of ‘25 but they are coming. In the meantime the smart thing is steady veterans for depth, who may cost more than we’d like or may not have a high ceiling or may not seem special………they have a 90% sure floor and that’s how a team reduces risk & gives themselves a chance to win regularly……..IMO.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Bravo!! ……Completely agree. IMO, Lee isn’t around much for a few months and if hitting in St Paul he’ll come over and spell CC & Lewis & DH some for the 2nd half. Julien & Farmer have 2B covered. Lee may need to jump in with an injury to someone, that’s it in ‘24. In ‘25, assuming Lee has proved himself, Lewis is in LF or 1B or both with 25 games at 3B to rest Lee……Lee is full time at 3B. Kirilloff at 1B & some LF as well.
  25. JD-TWINS
    First, the 200 innings comment is just that, a comment. The number of innings he mentioned when interviewed has nothing to do with whether he should be extended. No real reason to debate how many innings he may pitch - a good total would be 160 plus anything IMO. Not very many guys are throwing 200 innings in the 2020’s. Suggested in the article that Ober might sign for 4-5 years, like A. Ashby, at a rate of $20M. If Ober performs he will be getting more than $20M over the 3 years of arbitration! Seems to me that $30-$32M for 5 years extended past ‘24 is fair. Maybe this isn’t prudent but it seems fair…..he gets security and the Twins may save $20M or more.
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