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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    Yes, yes, yes to ABS! I kind of like the challenge system (last year the Saints used full-system on Tues-Thurs games and challenge Fri-Sun). It keeps a human/strategical element in the system, and from watching lots of MiLB the past few years and MLB this spring, it trains the umpires to be better by holding them to an accountability totally missing currently. Few will get that fired up someone missed a call by .25 inches, but those making terrible calls (balls missing the zone by a couple ball diameters, or pitches 100% in the zone) are going to clean it up just to avoid the public shaming.
  2. PatPfund
    Injury update: the NESN crew later reported a laceration on Gasper (so he got spiked rather than sprained), which should mean stitches and maybe no IL. Brutal play on his part, though (he essentially ran into the SS on a play that was clearly not Gasper's). It cracks me up so many people claim Martin’s “natural” position is 2B. According to baseball-reference he appeared there in only 13 games during his three year career at Vanderbilt (where he mostly played 3B and OF). In his first 2 seasons of pro ball (including AZ Fall Lg), he played 7 games at 2B (mostly played SS, 105 games; and OF 55 games). 2023 is the first (and only) year he ever played the most games at 2B (39 to 26 OF). As for fit, well… I guess if you think his best D is on the IF, you clearly didn’t see him in Wichita or St Paul where the infield experiments were happening. A rare time I agree with Rocco; stop messing the guy up, and put him in his real natural spot (the OF starting in St Paul) so he can fully develop his potential. The team will likely need the RH OF bat this year (remembering that Bader is as fragile as Buxton). Or at the very least, a maximized trade chip.
  3. PatPfund
    Let's hope it is just a minor tweak, because things could get ugly fast. Julien looks better at the plate (with the usual ST caveats) but he mentioned putting focus on hitting rather than D, and he looks as butchery as I've ever seen him in the field. It really might be worth the Twins' while to get Eeles some exposure to good pitching in the next week or so, because utility IF depth suddenly seems a bit more urgent than last week.
  4. PatPfund
    With all due respect to the author (and I do have that respect), this is just goofy overthinking. Lewis is a freakin' unicorn hitter, and it's time to plan around him because of a pulled hammy and a slump? Seriously? Some questions popped up while reading this like... How is Lewis just potential when he as already led us to a playoff series win? How many of those has Buxton led us to? (Oh wait, that would be zero.) How has Lewis had a "long" history of bad play at 3B when he doesn't have a "long" history at any position in MLB (and he was mostly a SS in the minors)? And side note question, wasn't Paparesta supposed to be some sort of expert at preventing soft tissue injuries? Anyone concerned that a prime fill-in mentioned is Brooks Lee who is battling another back incident? Or that Emma is hurt again? Or that Jenkins is hurt? If the Brewers had listened to talk like this, they probably would have dumped that bum Molitor. Look, I get the frustration, but any plans of post-season success almost certainly involve Lewis, If your goal is to scrape out a wild-card spot and first round exit, then plan around him.
  5. PatPfund
    I like the potential, and Tonkin's injury in particular opens a spot for Castellano, but the kid is trying out for the team, and most of his outings have shortened his leash for sticking with the team. (I agree with the team's philosophy of having him face better opposition, because that's what he'd see after ST, and the team needs to know now.) The next week may bring a bit more clarity (in either direction), but if I had to make the call now, I'd preserve the potential asset by bringing Castellano north. On a very short leash, probably triggered by a terrible outing, early need, Tonkin's return (with his guaranteed contract), etc. It was never much of a lock that a competitive team would be able to hold a Rule 5 pick long enough to keep him, so when/if he can't cut it, or they need the flexibility, drop him unless a decent deal can be made. This 'pen is really short on flexibility anyway (the pitchers with the options are among the best we have), which is likely to lead to Tonkin being DFA'd at some point as well. (Travis Adams is another possible St Paul Shuttle guy.) Though who knows, maybe the kid surprises us, and unlocks something in the coming days and weeks! (The unexpected result is why we watch the games.)
  6. PatPfund
    All offseason, I thought the biggest need this team had was a healthy veteran arm to soak up quality innings, and prevent last year's mess of running-on-fumes untested arms (plus the unavoidable regression by some of them). Morris and Zebby have eased that a bit this spring (both have looked good against good players), but Festa is a reminder (even if this is a spring mirage) that development in rarely done in a straight line. I like where we are starting, but expect we'll see at least 2 St Paul Saints starting for the Twins by May 1st. That scares me a bit less than a couple months ago.
  7. PatPfund
    France's hot spring won't replicate to the regular season (whoever posts a 1.5+ regular season is a baseball deity). But it clearly shows a healthy body, and a talented player competing as if his career is on the line, and those factors can translate well beyond ST. The mention of defense is okay, but overwrought here. There aren't ANY Twin 1B candidates that are going to make you forget Santana's defense, and that's fine. 1B is as low on the defensive spectrum as it gets (outside of DH); this is an offense-first position and on that front Santana was barely passable (after a horrific start). 109 OPS+ may be "above league average" but it's mediocre for 1B; there is tons of room to get better, and potentially the players to do that. Plus, after years of management that considered mandatory team defense drills as a bad idea, the reverse is true this spring. We may see a general improvement (though no 1B Gold Glove). I also think over-comparing France to Margot and Gallo is a mistake. The previous two represented fairly serious monetary commitments, while France is on a one-year non-guaranteed contract barely above the minimum. If he turns horrible, he would be even easier/cheaper to drop than Jay Jackson was last year, and the Twins will do it (a potential new owner means the FO and manager are auditioning to keep their jobs). Though I don't expect France to turn horrible; I think he'll be here through the season or traded at the deadline.
  8. PatPfund
    If they are both hitting, I'm shipping out Eddie to play everyday and get his defense back to at least late-'23 form. (It was nice to see him look less butcher-ish yesterday.)
  9. PatPfund
    I'd love to see the break-through happen, but it almost feels like it would have to be after he hangs it up, marries, has a kid, becomes a science teacher, coaches his team to a regional title, then goes to a tryout day. Though he probably does it for Tampa not the Twins. (Dennis Quaid's kid could play Canterino in the movie.)
  10. PatPfund
    Spring training stats are not meaningless, they simply have a different context than regular season stats, especially the first half of ST when you are working on things, or when healthy vets are just preparing for the season (like Lopez). France is a former All-Star trying out/showcasing himself not just for the Twins, but for other teams in general, and the fact that he even has the health to slam pitching around the way he has is a great thing (because the background talent is already MLB-proven). I think the Twins have a great lineup addition, and what could prove to be a big trade deadline asset. I'm pretty excited Julien's bat looks like it is coming back, but he has been absolutely brutal in the field. He's likely going to St Paul to work on that, which should concern the young man, because the wide-open door that was there for him last spring is rapidly closing with Brooks Lee already on the team, and Luke Keaschall in the offing. (Eddie might be another trade chip if he gets off to a good start with the Saints.) And maybe it is just the games I've seen (are the Twins ever going to televise a home ST game?), but Festa had a great first outing, while the other times have been the opposite of him 'pounding the strike zone'. He has labored pretty badly to throw strikes, which may not show up as walks this spring (where people are getting hits in 3 ball counts), but do show in his pitch totals. (Can't find game logs, but pretty sure he threw 60 pitches in 2.1 innings against the Red Sox.) He really could use more AAA time with the specific mission to get more outs on fewer pitches.
  11. PatPfund
    @Doctor Gast pretty much wrote my post, but... Rule 5 pitchers are often drafted from AA, because teams usually protect MLB-level SPs at AAA. Johan Santana was plucked from A ball, while Ryan Pressley was a Rule 5 from AA. Odds probably favor Castellano going back to Philly, but I thought the Twins were trending toward giving this a shot even before the Topa/Tonkin setbacks paved a clear path. Pretty sure Topa starts the year on the MiLB IL, and Tonkin on the MLB IL. (The team will likely have to DFA Tonkin at some point for flexibility, but it saves money if they can get somebody to claim his guaranteed contract off of waivers when they do it, which won't happen while he is injured.)
  12. PatPfund
    I'm glad for the AAA support, because Bader hasn't been much more durable than Buxton, and his defensive metrics are in decline as well (not surprising since they are pretty close in age). I'm pretty sure we'll have an April Saint starting several games out there this year, but the options are so much better than the Celestino Era.
  13. PatPfund
    ST stats are a mixed bag (except pretty much wins and losses, which are meaningless given all the late inning substitutions). For vets with locked roster spots like Correa, you just want to see them "getting their work in" professionally with good health. For fringe players (like France), or those on the outside trying to catch big league eyes (like Keaschall), they do matter; it is how you win jobs (like Castro a few years ago), how you get future looks, or how you can lose both. The next few weeks are more important than the past few as teams trim extra players, and the remaining group hones in on the regular season, but... France is here on a glorified tryout/showcase, and with his future on the line, he is cashing in (with not just the Twins noticing). Pretty sure he's hit his way onto the team despite Julien showing signs of hitting life, and if minor leaguers are pushing by May/June, France could be a great trade chip. No way I want Keaschall starting the year with the Twins at DH. He needs time to work back into his field defense after TJ surgery, and should do that playing every day in St Paul until all facets are MLB-ready. If France makes the team, they essentially rotate him, Miranda, Lewis, Correa, Larnach, and Wallner through DH, which is plenty of pop, and gives some players who could use it, semi-days off.
  14. PatPfund
    You can't just hide Rule 5's on the IL. The player has to be on the active 26-man for at least 90 days to satisfy requirements. Any days short of 90 extend into the next season until the requirement is met.
  15. PatPfund
    All is subject to change since the most important 3 weeks of ST lie ahead, but... Topa is injured, and has little time to pitch his way onto the roster. Plus, he has options, so I think there is nearly a zero chance he makes the 26-man roster; his trip north starts in St Paul (and the MiLB IL). Maybe it was a typo, but Castellano has to remain on the 26-man, not 40-man all season. The kid has flashed some electric stuff, so unless he melts down I fully expect him to make the roster. Signing Bader (and not trading Castro) pretty much consigned Martin and Keirsey to St Paul, but the infield is shaping up to be the best of battles. Lee, Julien, Gasper, Miranda, and France have all shown signs of being (badly needed) offensive forces; if that continues, I'd expect the team to make decisions in a way that preserves player capital to ensure against injury or feed a trade, I wouldn't be surprised to see Julien in St Paul to work on his D, but mostly agree with the OP's IF shakeout.
  16. PatPfund
    Great piece! The bullpen shapes up as you say (as you note the Varland appearances pretty much spell out his new position); the key strategy on Tonkin is probably to waive him at a point maximized for some other team claiming him (and his guaranteed though small contract). I'm not as optimistic on trading for Castellano's rights as others, and the stuff looks great, so (right now) I'd be keeping him as a longer innings eater. At 2B I'm hoping somebody seizes the hitting bull by the horns (2023 Julien, are you out there?), but if it falls to D the scales probably tip to Castro or Lee. (Though Lee should play a lot even if it means he starts in St Paul.) Zebby has been even better looking than last year, but barring injury, I'd still start the year with SWR. Festa still looks like he struggles to throw strikes at times (the stuff is great, but he seriously dampens its impact when he takes 60 pitches to get 7 outs). I still expect (barring injury) Matthews and Festa to start at AAA, but maybe Zebby is the first call if current trends hold.
  17. PatPfund
    Hat tip to you, sir! It has been a few years now since I stumbled across Twins Daily, and the community you've helped create is pretty dang awesome even (especially?) when I disagree with some other passionate member/poster. The spice of life! Centered around the Greatest Game!
  18. PatPfund
    So just how is Cartaya better than Camargo? (And FYI, any backup catcher's usage has been almost zero the last two years, because Jeffers and Vasquez have been available pretty much every game.) Cartaya has been a serious dud offensively; Camargo's down-year 2024 in AAA is pretty much better than anything Cartaya has posted above A ball. (Jair also hit 21 AAA HRs in '23 including multiple grand slams.) Defensively Camargo threw out 30% of basestealers in AAA; Cartaya's combined AA/AAA stat was 16%. Right now I'd rather have Camargo at the plate and Camargo behind the plate, and it isn't close. What will Cartaya have to do to catch 70 MLB games next year? Get better. A lot better.
  19. PatPfund
    When you ignore a whole season, and the most recent at that to claim Varland is a great reliever, well, call it what you want, but it isn't a full look. Eddie Julien was great in '23, then the league caught up to him, and he is fighting for a roster spot. Varland is pretty much the same, and likely to start in St Paul given his options and the 'pen depth. (And the even great rotational depth if he wants to stay a starter.) As of the end of last season, his pitches were not quite good enough in either individual quality or as used in sequences, and opponents were hitting like a collective All-Star off of him in either role. He needs to get better before he can excel. In either role. (And again, I hope he does!)
  20. PatPfund
    When you cherry pick you can flex stats all sorts of ways, and it wasn't lost on me that you sort of skip over the most recent season, but here is some of the stat line from Varland's relief 2024: 9 appearances, opp BA .320, slugging .493, OPS .859. I would definitely call that homely. It is in fact only marginally better than his starting appearances. That were bad enough for the bullpen strategy. Look, maybe he came up with a better curve ball and things will be better, but his fastball isn't good enough to fool enough people. Without a dominant "other" pitch, Louie's failures are going to be loud. (I love the guy, but I'd rather see him get work in St Paul until he's shown he is ready in either role.)
  21. PatPfund
    Louis (for spelling and his family, but you can call him Louie) wants to be an SP. My guess is the Twins will give him a stretched out workload in ST, and give him a chance to make his case (something that doesn't hurt the team). If he doesn't, he'll probably go to St Paul to work on RP development (he may have tools but his relief stats are homely). If Varland has great stretched out appearances he probably goes to St Paul anyway. Adams got lit up in his first appearance, and if he doesn't right that ship quickly, he is an easy waive off of the 40-man (and unlikely to be claimed if that happens). Being on that roster is the only reason to give him AAA starts ahead of Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, and maybe Varland and/or Ynoa. My guess he starts the year as the sixth starter (something needed to start), and then he and Dobnak do piggybacks on some of the other starts until stretching out finishes and MLB call-ups create gaps (which will happen). Tonkin is a fungible arm; a decent MLB RP with the service time that you have to waive him to send him down, and not good enough that you might have to send him down. Nobody would trade much, because even if you can't get Tonkin, you can get someone like him. Twins are going to have to waive him at some point even if he makes the team, because they will need the flexibility/spot at some point. No way I see Canterino in a rotation this year. If he has a healthy bullpen year, then maybe next year (unless he is so good that ends the convo... like Duran did a few years ago). Possibly Brock Stewart good or better. Definitely Brock Stewart fragile (or more?).
  22. PatPfund
    Ideally, Julien figures it out, but otherwise there are worse solutions. I'm definitely someone who rolls their eyes up into their head when Rocco gets played by other managers into taking out his better players with a mid-game pitching change, but... ...I get a sense Baldelli is finally feeling like his job is on the line (and it is even if ownership doesn't change). The radical (only for him) idea of having the team do defensive drills as a team. And talking about concentrating Martin on a position instead of moving him around (ensuring he plays none of them well). He may be slower to remove Wallner on a one-off pitching change as that bat really too good to lose.
  23. PatPfund
    I still believe the Twins did the right thing. The end result of many minors games may not be to win, but it definitely isn't to throw games to get rest time, and much worse, make your teammate (who is also fighting for advancement) look terrible so you can get time off. I think he deserves another chance (it's not like this was a sexual assault), but he also has to earn it, and if this statement ends up undermined by the investigation, most organizations are going to look at the denial as another judgement lapse that has to be overcome. (Probably why his agency didn't want him talking.)
  24. PatPfund
    As the OP said, it is pretty much about health. Even if Miranda (best option now and in the future) and France (glorified try-out, and best case shines for us and is traded/signed elsewhere by next year) hit, there should be options. As @chpettit19 points out, we have a couple corner OFs who both hit from the other side of Miranda and France, certainly have the height to make a great target, and wield 1B-caliber bats. We also have an MLB Top Twenty 20 prospect already on the 40-man that plays OF with more athleticism than Wallner or Larnach, and down at AA we have one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball who also plays OF. Leaving defense aside (and anyone arguing for Ford or Gasper should be happy with that), I'd much rather keep Wallner/Larnach bats in the order than make space for Ford, Gasper, or Willi. Or France unless he hits his way on to the team in major fashion. (Plus, the room will have to be made in the next two months for Emma, so hopefully one of our tall dudes is getting reps now.)
  25. PatPfund
    The starting bullpen is so inflexible (too good to send down or out of options or Rule 5) that I wouldn't lock in Tonkin. It isn't that he is bad, but he isn't great either; sort of the definitive fungible pitcher. I kind of feel like he is pitching for his job against Castellano, and even if he does make the trip north, Tonkin is probably the guy Alcala comes up for (dangerously assuming a healthy April for Stewart). And this is really the opposite of what you asked, but I'm fairly mystified by Travis Adams on the 40-man. On a recent TwinsDaily video, discussion turned to the Saints rotation, and it is hard to make a case that Adams is even good enough for that (Festa, Matthews, Raya, Morris, Lewis then maybe Adams and Dobnak?). Unless he hops on the relief train, I'd guess Adams gets bumped when the St Paul shuttle adds a passenger. (And to answer the question, I don't think Canterino makes the club out of ST, but think he will prove dominant once he gets his feet wet in the bigs.)
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