Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

PatPfund

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    666

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    I disagree that drafts and bonuses (expectation-based) have anything to do with actual breakout players (who perform to high levels after being drafted/signed) except you hope a higher percentage of the first become the second. Kohl Stewart is an excellent example. High pick, high expectations, never broke out at any level and is out of baseball. This is baseball, not football or basketball. A far higher level of top picks don't pan out in this sport than you see in other sports, so tracking players primed for breakout is well worth the effort. And again breakout is actuality not expectation. Though predicting breakout is expectation of actuality. Still... fun for most of us to think about, though clearly not your cup of tea.
  2. PatPfund
    Well, right now I'd tell Nick Gordon he is the regular LF. He's a very good athlete, he was a top pick for a reason, he is out of options so the team needs to find out about him now, and he is the least embarrassing bat among the non-Buxton OFs. Gordon is likely to improve on both O and D if he is given a regular gig, and if he doesn't that's good to know as well. His floor is certainly better than we'd see from Larnach. Not right-handed? I don't really care. Rocco talks about how he wants his best batters (Buxton, Correa) at the top of the order, I want the best nine bats IN the order. Platooning is nice if you have some extra good hitters; this team doesn't even have three good hitters in the outfield or Kepler would be fighting for his job. Beyond that, Garlick would be the best immediate add; Upton is Matt Shoemaker in an outfielder's guise. The Twins should also take a look pretty quickly at Mark Contreras who had the lamp go on last year, and is raking so far this spring. Maybe even in April with the rosters expanded. I believe Winder has earned a real shot, but since Rocco is just going to trot him out for an inning once a week, he'd serve the club better working as a starter in St Paul. (Oh no! Contreras isn't on the 40 man! Umm. Maybe we could dare to DFA Vallimont who blew chunk last year, and currently sports a 67.50 ERA and .714 BAA.) And maybe work the trade market for a legit OF; not a used up name like Upton. They will come available (I think Atlanta found one or four on their way to the title last year).
  3. PatPfund
    This is a good question, because Arraez is clearly one of the better hitters on the team (right now the only three clearly ahead are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco). He gives consistent competitive high average at-bats regardless of who he is facing. He runs up pitch counts, gives those on-deck extended looks, and can help force pitchers out earlier. The problem is both mediocre D, and the fact that his positions in the field are already covered by Polanco (better with bat and D) and Urshela (better at D, probably similar tier with bat). A straight platoon with Urshela doesn't fix much because either way it puts one of the better bats on the bench leaving three major weak spots in the order (Sano at 1B, Kepler in RF, fill-in-the-blank in LF). Most of us hope/believe part of this will be fixed with Kirilloff starting to hit, but the above situation is why I think Alex needs to stay in LF. Everyone is excited to supplant Sano at 1B, but Miguel has actually played pretty well over there this year (fruits of the slim down?), and Kirilloff could fill one of the Three Bat Voids by staying in LF. Keeping Sano at 1B also lets you put one of the best hitters on your team in a position designed for one of your best hitters, DH. Arraez should probably be in the starting lineup about 3/4 of the time, and 2/3 of those should be at DH with the balance giving Urshela and Polanco days off. Lack of power? Who cares; this team's problem isn't a lack of people who can hit the ball out, it is a shortage of people who can consistently hit. And I guess hope Alex hits soon. (I'm afraid at this point, Sano and Kepler are what they are. A big guy who strikes out a LOT, walks, can hit really long home runs, but goes ice cold for months at a time. And a guy who literally seems incapable of adapting to shifts, and is really a defensive OF replacement at this point.)
  4. PatPfund
    Seth, love the format; 10-15 minutes is something I'm more likely to watch, and kudos to Thomas; I'm enjoying the Kernels broadcasts! Not sure if this was forwarded, but maybe in a month or so it might be fun to connect to Jake Cave. Polarizing peeps make great ratings! So many beard questions! FYI, I was not able to comment here for those who had issues, but the site admin found a permissions issue that has been fixed. Upside, everyone should be set. Downside, I am! (giggle)
  5. PatPfund
    Ah, the agonies of the early season where these two games portend a horrible year! Or mean exactly nothing, and we're all laughing a month from now about how low we felt. It was pretty clear Rocco was going to give Duffey the first shot at closing (he was also getting ready to work the 10th on Friday if needed). Which I think is a terrible idea (Duffey is a variable somewhat above average reliever with declining velocity), but maybe had to be done from a team standpoint.) Hopefully, going forward, Alcala and Pagán will get their shots before the inevitable Duran takeover. (FYI, I doubt Duran was even available given his history of elbow issues and the fact he threw 2 innings in the Opener. But when even your opponents are saying 'WTH was that?' after facing one of your relievers, it might be a clue he should close games at some point.) Also, for those waving around the Rogers save; yep he's good, which is why we got two good players back for him. Also José Berríos's ERA is 108.00, so aren't we all glad now he's gone? (Or maybe it is just early, and games are 1/162 of a season.)
  6. PatPfund
    Great article, because draft position and bonus mean nothing once you run out on the field. It's play that breaks you out. Though I'd certainly have Encarnacio-Strand on the Kernels list somewhere; sure he can't hit .900 with 30% of ABs leaving the yard all year, but he's coming off a .391 (short) first year in pro ball, and still mashing to open 2022. Plus, he's a college player, so if he keeps it up, I can see him moving up pretty quickly.
  7. PatPfund
    Beloit's pitching staff must be having Encarnacio-Strand nightmares at this point.
  8. PatPfund
    I think the groupings you have are good, but don’t work at all with the numerical rankings (rank in order is good, or rank by group with the numbers out of sequence good, but not both?). The fun of any list, too, is the chance to suggest differences, and here are a few of mine: Cody Stashak and Griffin Jax are rated too high; both have given gutsy needed innings in the past, but both have been a bit exposed/injured, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they never make it back up to the Twins. Sands and Strotman (who you have down at the bottom) are already tossing at AAA, and unless Stashak/Jax get good results quickly, S and S are likely to be the early call ups. And Balazovic is looming to pass by Stashak/Jax as well. I’m putting Archer ahead of Bundy/Jax/Stashak/Romero. Winder is easily top 20; already in the Bigs, and possibly a rotation pitcher at some point this season. I love the Thielbar story, but no way is he a back of bullpen stud; an ERA in the ‘3’s for a one inning pitcher is more steady than stud, plus he is 35. I’d rate him no more than #30 on this list, and predict by the end of the calendar year he will be off the 40-man. (Here is where the groupings most distort the rankings; even if you like Thielbar there is no way he is better/more valuable than both your MLB catchers, and your everyday starting 3B.) No way as well that Duffey is #12 on the 40-man. Or anywhere ahead of Alcala and Duran for long (even in Rocco’s mind). I love Max, but he probably ranks more aroun the late teens or early 20s, and is vulnerable to benching/demoted-to-sub if any two young OFs start hitting. (Unless he actually starts to hit, but I've sort of lost hope there.) Totally agree that Larnach is an x-factor bat, but he needs to light it up pretty quickly or other x-factors will blow past him (non-40-man Martin, Miranda, Celestino if the lamp goes on in the Bigs as it did in AAA last year). I’d probably drop him into the 28-32 range, which fits better with him not making the 28-man roster. Based on his hot start, I'd also rank Jake Cave as an x-factor bat, and rank him highly. Well except he isn't on the 40-man, I just remembered he is actually Jake Cave, and this post is 3 times too long if I'm talking about Jake Cave...
  9. PatPfund
    You can see both of E-S's HRs on video in the article above; 1st was center at the knees, the second more center-center. As I remember from the first HR, the pitchers for the Sky Carp were struggling with control to an extent that had already cost them the lead, and filled the bases, so I'm guessing there wasn't the confidence/ability/instructions needed to tempt E-S at the edges. The second might have been a mistake, or a 'it's cold and we're down 5; throw strikes and let your defense play and move the game along.'
  10. PatPfund
    Amen, brother! Another MiLB bonus is the effort to pick up the pace of the game. Not sure about all of them, but the pace is definitely faster (which helps the spectating as much as it notoriously helps keep the defenders in the game).
  11. PatPfund
    Opposite going on in Louisville. A borderline pitch was called a strike, and the Louisville broadcast crew (on a bitterly cold night) openly speculated that anything close was going to get called to move the game, and the batters should be ready to swing. (And they were probably right. Looked like about 10 fans left at the park around the 6th inning.)
  12. PatPfund
    Great article! Since I lost my avenue for watching Twins games live (my old ISP's server was in Chicago, so MLB.tv blacked out the ChiSox/Cubs, and treated Twins as out-of-market; an unintended bonus for me until they disconnected this area), I plunked my MLB.tv money into Twins Daily, The Athletic, and an annual subscription to MiLB.tv. ($50). I'll be "watching" the Twins on radio (which is fine; I'm old so I'm used to the medium), but I'm getting way more bang for my buck! Had a gas scrolling between the Saints and Kernels last night with an added benefit being there were often no commercials between innings, and no black screen announcing a commercial was in progress. Instead you get to watch (soundless, alas) some of the 'tween innings hijinx put on in the minors. So much fun; a great chance to see the Twins up-and-comers (including that monster Cave!!! who is that guy?!?!?!?!), and visual to add context to these excellent Minor League reports.
  13. PatPfund
    Nice recap! As a local transit driver, I can also add that whatever festivities the Twins had on in the early morning had cars backed up from Target Field's plaza on 7th all the way back to near Hennepin even though there was still snow on the ground. (While a brief pain to work around, it was heart-warming to see all those fans fired up at 6 a.m.!)
  14. PatPfund
    I predict... Many will over-react to whatever happens on Opening Day and Opening Weekend. There will be moments of glory and despair. Someone will get hurt. The Dodgers and Blue Jays will be fabulous, and one will win it all... ...unless they don't. Game play will be so much better than anything we can predict. I'll be following it all on Twins Daily; thanks to the founders and all the posters (including any that rip me; taking a beating is part of the game) for such a great site. Glad I found you all!
  15. PatPfund
    And I'm sure most of us would be happier if Rogers and Rooker had gone to the Dodgers for Walker Buehler. But that's not how it always works, especially for a mid-market team. It sounds like the fans were always higher on Manaea than the Twins; it's a stretch referring to him as "high-end" (though compared to the Twins staff last year...), and he is an FA after the year. Montas is higher end for sure, and since the A's haven't been able to deal him (to the Twins or the rest of MLB), they probably are asking too much. Sometimes you have to roll with what you can get, and since this is baseball, you can often win with that. Or not win it all after getting one of the best pitchers in baseball (like the Yankees who haven't even won their division with Gerrit Cole). At any rate, the die is cast.
  16. PatPfund
    I'm pretty sure we didn't go from "OMG, need another SP!" to "there is no place for a new SP to pitch on this team" in the last week. No starter is fully stretched out yet; Gray has only faced MLB hitters once (though he did mow them down like grass). Given the 16 slots available, it seems like the Twins could easily structure a rotation with a starter (4 innings or X pitches), and a follow-up "middler" (3 innings or X pitches) much like they'd do in spring training. The actual name 'starter' wouldn't really matter the first couple times through, and by then results could dictate the 'final' starting five. ('Final' of course meaning until injury/bad-pitching brought change. So maybe as soon as a week from now.)
  17. PatPfund
    I consider Urshela an upgrade over JD. Speaking of angles of attack, JD swung a potent bat on deteriorating pins that hobbled him badly outside the batter's box (watching him run was painful), and probably means a downward path on defense (when he can even take the field). The salary difference is especially key since it meant they could sign a top shortstop (and in the end, THE top FA SS). Let me see... which would I rather have... Urshela/Correa or JD/Simmons?
  18. PatPfund
    I feel pretty good about this group, though my biggest concerns have to do with some of the supposed 'front line.' As you said, Duffey started popping red flags last year, Thielbar was outstanding in 2020, but more of just okay last year (though he looked great in comparison to some of his 'pen mates), and Joe Smith had one of his worst years as a pro and is pretty old. I'm hoping the leashes are pretty short, because the second line looks better than some of the first.
  19. PatPfund
    Good piece covering the biggest ??? position on the team (though pretty big 'Q's still remain at corner OF and C). We can all guess, but only real games now can tell the tale on the retreads Archer and Bundy. I feel somewhat better about them than Happ/MattyShoe, because there still seems to be some power in their arms, but... well, we just need to see. I'm still mildly optimistic, but as you say, if it doesn't work there isn't a place for the Falvines to hide.
  20. PatPfund
    Great summary! I'm fine with where they are. I'm also optimistic about the team, though I guess that is a relative term since (like mikelink45) I see something around .500 this year. (But something around .500 is much better than last year, so...) You are probably closer to the actual decisions, but I'd still like to see DFAs for Stashak and Thielbar (rather than Rooker) to add Garlick (or somebody else who can play OF, can hit and is DFA'd elsewhere), and start with Moran in Mpls instead of St Paul. The need for a real OF option grows if Kirilloff's knee-tweak today limits his outfield play.
  21. PatPfund
    Good article, and catcher is definitely key to success this year. Not just Jeffers who needs to progress as a hitter, but Sanchez, who I think the Twins believe in. Taking them at their word (which probably is not just spin this time), I'd expect something like a 2 (Jeffers) to 1 (Sanchez) split with the majority of Sanchez's at-bats coming at C. (I also believe the Twins mean it right now that DH will rotate to give people not in the field that day some extra ABs; sure Sanchez gets swings, but so do the others on the bench depending on matchup and production.) Have no idea how it will play out, but I guess that is the joy of this week; we start to find out for real!
  22. PatPfund
    There is zero reason to keep a non-roster pitcher; the 40-man is chock full of viable arms. You can argue the non-roster people might be marginally better in a couple cases, but you aren't cutting someone over the difference. The non-roster pitchers go to St Paul as depth in case of injuries, antiques that blow up, or to be added after a prospect trade. However, there is one or two non-roster bats to be added (only 13 rostered hitters remain in camp; one is Godoy, another is Rooker). There is no reason to need for 3 catchers on the game roster, but you do need to have the third on the MLB roster in case they are needed immediately, so I don't think Godoy is DFA'd, though I see him in St Paul. Rooker seems more likely to start the year on the DL than in the majors. I'd add Garlick as the most viable bat, and Robertson as the next most viable. (And DFA Stashak and Thielbar.) If Godoy is up and Rooker healthy, you probably just go with the rostered peeps until somebody plays themselves off the team (or gets hurt, in which case the best alternative is probably a rostered player in the minors).
  23. PatPfund
    As a former vict... er, um host of Extreme Pelfrey Fever, I believe in Chris!!!!
  24. PatPfund
    Well nobody really knows, but for the sake of the question, B-? The part of many reactions that cracks me up (darkly) is the general faith of 'we've got a great lineup'. The reality is we haven't had a great lineup since 2019; they underperformed the next year (and pitching carried us to the playoffs), and the hitting was terrible last year with equally weak pitching. I think the FO has upgraded things to the point of a season around .500, and a chance for the edge of the expanded playoff field, which is a big step up from last year. Our expensive FA is vastly superior to last year's model, and Correa is a massive upgrade as SS as well. Urshela gets ripped a lot around here, but he is a straight upgrade over JD (less but not insignificant bat, and far better defensively since no matter how good you used to be, you can't defend third very well if you have problems walking across the clubhouse). I'm also glad they didn't toss massive money at a starting pitcher; that doesn't often work out well, and frankly the foundation isn't good enough for the 'one that will put us over the top' approach. Sometimes the moves you don't make are the best. On the downside, the catching is FAR worse, and they got a bit handcuffed by the lockout lasting so long. And if Bundy/Archer start to resemble Happ/Matty the Shoe, or they release Canterino to add Cave to the 40 man Twins fans will be right there to drench them with Hatorade.
  25. PatPfund
    Kenny was just Dependable in my days; his new-fangled Sodbuster name was a hit, though! I think you are right about Godaski being Scrappy, which probably meant that he and Kenny were fodder for the headliners to work over on TV.
×
×
  • Create New...