whosafraidofluigirussolo

Whoa! I didn't want the Twins to trade Berríos, but if they were going to trade him, the Blue Jays system seemed to have a lot of potential to pluck from. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/ There are four current/potential shortstops in their top 10 on this list. I'd hope to get one of those guys, ideally one projected to stay at SS, in addition to Woods Richardson. Guess we'll know soon enough.

Very much agree with the broad point of this article. I think the contract estimate cited here underestimates what Berríos would take or could get. Nola and Severino signed their deals when they were much farther from free agency, right? That kept their prices down. It seems like those deals have been thrown out there as comps for Berríos for a couple years, but I think it always would have taken more to extend him. Since reports have said the Twins were trying to negotiate an extension, I hope they were serious enough to go higher than $12-15M per year.

This has been basically my feeling all along, but as trade deadline speculation continues, I only believe more that the Twins should not trade Berrios. This is considering all that's been said and written about "a talented roster that was expected to contend," Pohlad saying there won't be a full rebuild, etc. While there's probably an element of positive spin in all that, it's not totally unrealistic. Many of us expected the Twins to contend too, and I have to think the front office is still considering different ways forward and isn't truly set on a rebuild yet. It's possible that 2019 and 2020 relied too much on peak performances that players won't repeat, but the baseline of the roster is not untalented. If anything, the talent is too heavy on the hitting side, light on the pitching side. And speaking of pitching talent... this also makes me think of the Johan Santana trade. Some circumstances were different, but that was also a team that expected to contend, spent a season floundering, and had a front-end starter who seemed set on testing the market as a free agent. The front office felt pressed to make a move or else "get nothing for" Santana. Then the team contended again the next year and it's very likely that they would have benefited more from even one more year of Santana than several seasons of the players they received. Finally, I know the front office has their own internal evaluation of the talent in the organization and the likelihood of Berrios departing, based on private dealings with him and his agent, and getting talent back by trading him may be the sensible move. But something about it seems...uncreative. Sure, a front office can distinguish themselves by evaluating other orgs' players well and getting good talent back in a trade, but trading a player approaching free agency because you don't think you can retain him is, in itself, formulaic. Basing any given move on trying to get absolute maximum value from a player as an asset in a market of baseball talent is formulaic. Especially for a team that really needs pitching and hasn't developed a lot of it - rolling with Berrios (and Maeda) to keep a stable floor for the rotation, rebuilding/retooling as needed around them, and even finding a way to contend seriously to sign Berrios in free agency ... that would be creative problem-solving. I'd like to see this front office try it.

Gore has been a super-touted pitching prospect in the past, but I've read that his recent performance has been iffy. That's a lot to bank on if you're trading the best pitcher you've developed in years. If it's a 1-for-1 swap, I think the Twins would be the ones to say no.

A few random thoughts - writing this as Atlanta has just picked 24th. - The first round is soooo slow. Every year I notice this and every year it still exceeds my expectations of how slow it's going to be. - The middle to late first round is more interesting to me than the top because this is when players who conceivably could make it or could have made it to the Twins are being rumored about and coming off the board. - I pay exactly zero attention to amateur baseball except for starting to get an idea of who players are when mock drafts and previews start to come out, a month or two before the draft—so I have no real knowledge of what or who makes a good pick, just half-baked opinions based on the various sources I've seen. So far, of names that seemed like they might have been around for the Twins, the college pitchers taken with the last 2 picks (Cusick and Williams), McGreevy (18th) and Painter (went all the way up at 13th, but had been lower in some mocks) are the players who I had an eye on. - I've been looking at the Fangraphs draft night chat where they're saying that college pitcher Ty Madden is "the steal of the draft" at this point, falling farther than expected. Only 2 more picks for him to get to the Twins. Maybe...?

Gil has advanced farther through the minors and has maintained or boosted his performance since that trade. His value in trade has changed, and he's less of a wild card than he was then (though it's still inherently risky to project what value a MiLB player will have in the majors). If they really value Gil, the FO shouldn't be letting the optics of something that happened a few years ago limit them in a deal. (....That is, if you think their best move is to trade Berríos, which I don't believe to be true.)

Probably part of the answer to this is that if and when the Twins trade these guys, some of the return has to be players who are ready to play in the majors. Not to the exclusion of farther-away guys with higher upside, but certainly balanced with those.

This is totally a sidebar to the main discussion, but are the Dodgers seriously actually paying Scott Kazmir (who, since he last played for them, has been out of affiliated baseball, rejoined a different MLB team, and been cut from that team) right now? Ha.

Good of you to point this out, and you have a good point. But... Gladden took a series off a couple weeks ago so Provus and Atteberry were the broadcast team for the weekend, and those games were SO pleasant and relaxing to listen to.

Just found this thread after reading the latest minor league report. This may fall in the category of "don't complain about a free site," but I read the report on mobile and the ads are out of control. Between in-line ads and pop-ups there was almost never a moment when I didn't have one in my field of vision. At one point there was one pop-up on top of another pop-up. A pop-up appeared literally on top of this comment field as I was writing and I couldn't avoid tapping on it and getting redirected to a new ad page. Again, maybe not appropriate to complain about this given that you all make so much available for free, but this experience with the ads is starting to push the bounds of usability.

Yes, his MLB career line: .228/.313/.313 However, his AAA career line: .295/.372/.437 Of course there are always players who run that kind of disparity between AAA and MLB numbers and never break through in the majors (giving us the shorthand "AAAA guy.") But it seems like there's at least some base of skills to know what he's doing at the plate. Maybe Refsnyder becomes the rare AAA veteran who finally figures it out at MLB, or maybe not, but it seems like there's no reason not to give him some run as long as he's hitting and the roster is still banged up.

I saw that and wondered whether the logic was something like this: If an opposing left-handed starter means dropping Arraez from the top of the lineup, then dropping him all the way to the 9th slot makes him effectively a second leadoff hitter later in the game, including when almost inevitably facing a right-handed reliever. Of course the depth makes a difference too!

A counterpoint to this might be: if Astudillo isn't the first backup option anywhere defensively (C or IF), then what he offers offensively takes on more importance in the decision whether to keep him on the roster. With his tendency to make a lot of contact (coupled with his ability to field any of several positions for at least an inning or two) he could have some specific value as a pinch hitter. As an atypical sort of "offense-first" or at least offense-equal-to-defense utility player he might have more value than Riddle.

Does Law have an opt-out that means the Twins would lose him if he didn't make the club? If not, it's hard for me to see them forcing a tough 40-man decision just to take Law over Stashak on opening day.

I don't mean to be "writing police," especially on a free site (thanks for your writing everyone!) but it was hard not to notice that there were 3 full paragraphs talking about Tim Anderson without mentioning him by name...?

If Dobnak is the likely 6th starter, he might be sent to AAA to start there and stay stretched out.

The Twins appear to be done with big ticket signings, so that would likely rule out a Jake Odorizzi reunion. Darren Wolfson's KSTP had Minnesota with an offer out to a starter however. The language Falvey used in that clip definitely suggests that they're done with big signings, but it's a little vague and slippery in a sports executive way. Maybe I'm projecting my own take onto that, but it feels like there's no point to bringing in a starter who isn't either at Odorizzi/Paxton's level or available on a minor-league deal. With spring training so close and given the Twins' penchant for the late offseason strike, I still wonder whether Odo and/or Paxton might be the starter with an active offer.

I don't think it's politics that people usually are talking about when they talk about personality issues with Bauer.

Too bad to lose Wade, but I guess we'll see what Anderson turns into. I thought Wade's plate discipline skills were a good complement to the Twins offense, and he might take over from Cave as the main 4th outfield option at some point. Eventually any of those guys might have jumped Wade to fill in as a regular, yes, but other than Rooker they might not get pushed to that extent early this season. (Though this move probably makes Rooker more likely to open the season in the bigs.) I wonder if another backup OF option is coming, maybe on a non-roster invite.

We don't really know what budget constraints they're working with, but if Clippard or another addition is in the budget, then Gibaut and Waddell won't stop it from happening.

The Twins still haven't announced this signing, have they? What might the holdup be?

I think Duran has been playing consistently a level higher in the minors than Balazovic, so it seems more likely he's the first of them to reach the majors...? Not expecting significant impact from Balazovic or Duran seems about right. I don't subscribe to the Athletic any more, but Larnach wasn't on Law's list last year either. Sometimes one evaluator just disagrees with others on a given player, and Law seems unafraid to diverge from common opinions.

Not excited by this signing, but two things I see going for it: 1. I had a vague impression of Happ as an older player at the end of the line, but some of the pitch data in this article above and this evaluation by Gleeman make me think there's more there 2. Last offseason, the Twins acquired more starting pitching than it looked like they needed. Some of those acquisitions were meant to raise the ceiling of the rotation and some were aimed more to raise the floor and to make sure there was depth on hand. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the latter kind of move, one that ensures another rotation spot is covered even if they don't get anyone else, but doesn't preclude a bigger addition.

I think the response of "Why didn't the Twins get this guy? They don't really want to win!" can be a bit much and kind of knee-jerk at times, but I'm getting to the point of thinking, just sign somebody good!... Especially with Yates and the report of the Twins being a "finalist" for a guy who got a pretty reasonable contract. It would be nice to see them target a premium player at a position of need and just do what was needed to get that player.

Off the top of my head, without thinking about it too hard, without looking at the lists above, and quite possibly forgetting something obvious: 1. Maeda 2. Kepler 3. Berríos 4. Buxton 5. Kirilloff 6. Arráez 7. Lewis 8. Polanco 9. Duffey 10. Balazovic 11. Larnach 12. Durán 13. Jeffers 14. Rogers 15. Sanó 16. Garver 17. Rooker 18. Alcalá 19. Pineda 20. Sabato Also considered Donaldson, Dobnak, and Stashak to go somewhere in the last 4 slots or so. Edit: On a second look at my list, the gap between Kirilloff and other prospects seemed unwarranted. He gets a premium for being basically MLB-ready, but I moved him down and the Balazovic/Larnach/Durán cluster up slightly.