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Yep, I largely agree. (The sentence you put in bold is not my words but a quote from the article, in case not obvious.) I do think there was likely an extenuating factor for Verlander at least, in that he wasn't going to sign for more than 2-3 years at this stage, and probably wanted a more obvious contender. But a lot of us thought similarly about deGrom, and he took more dollars and years to go to a worse team. In any case, yes, Rodon is realistic for the Twins this offseason in the way that Correa was last offseason.

There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities. Bassitt has a new team already, Toronto. Syndergaard isn't better than Gray at this point in his post-TJS career, and may not be better than most of the Twins' other current starters. Eovaldi is the interesting one of that group. I don't totally agree that Rodón is definitely out of the picture, if the Twins are really willing to allocate their payroll room there.

I'm not sure whether to call this ad a pop-up or maybe an "interstitial" - it's an ad for Brex, something credit-card-related. It "pops up" while an article is loaded, but fills the entire screen so it interrupts reading altogether, and takes a bit of time to do so. I just read a page and a half of comments on a single article and in the time it took me to do so, this ad took over the screen six or seven times. Absolutely get that ad revenue keeps the site going, but this rendered it basically unreadable today.

The way the article introduces its premise totally makes sense until: The issue, though, is that this conversation was happening *after* he had been ruled out as a second baseman I do recall questions about how many innings Arráez could handle at 2B, but after he began to get starts at 1B regularly, he continued to start at second as well: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arraelu01&t=f&year=2022 If they no longer see Arráez as able to be a full-time second baseman, which seems possible, that's a different thing. I don't think that's necessarily a problem. It certainly seems like the Twins have tried to move toward keeping more players playing multiple positions and, with that, more lineup flexibility a la the Dodgers and Rays. If they can keep Arráez as a flexible 1B/2B, that can be useful for that kind of plan, even if he's not playing the most defensively valuable positions. The team could choose matchups based on handedness or on whether an opposing pitcher was more vulnerable to power hitting or a contact/OBP approach. Maybe in a year Lee or Lewis is getting starts at 3B and Miranda rotates back in at 1B. There are ways to see it working. I still would understand an Arráez trade if it brought back a better pitcher than they could acquire by other means—he wouldn't return that pitcher 1-for-1, but could be the headlining player in a deal. I'm not convinced that going for Pablo López would be aiming high enough to justify Arráez as a trade asset.

When Target Field first opened, it was observed to be a good park for right-handed power, particularly pull-heavy right-handed power hitters. Think of Josh Willingham having his best offensive season in his first year with the Twins, or Brian Dozier hitting a handful of barely-out shots to left field on the way to a home run record for second basemen. Baseball-reference sets the threshold for a pitcher's rate stats to "qualify" at 1 inning pitched per team game. If Heaney had qualified last year, his HR/PA and HR/FB rates both would have led the majors—not in the way you want, if you're the pitcher. The fact that he didn't qualify for the leader board, even if the threshold is arbitrary, tells us that his sample of innings was small and there may be some noise there. But maybe it's fair to say at least that he's somewhat prone to giving up home runs. I haven't heard so much about Target Field and RH power in recent years. Park factors can change, but any time I read something connecting the Twins with a homer-prone lefty pitcher, it raises a flag. I would be dubious about how well Heaney would do pitching half his games there.

I'll make this prediction and stick with it: Rodón will not get $150M. I think he can beat the recent contracts for Gausman, Ray, and Wheeler, which were all between $110-$118M—maybe in part because teams spend more freely this offseason—but I think those deals will be a baseline for comparison. I'll bet he gets $120-125M if it's a similar 5-year deal, or a little more or less (adjusting the AAV accordingly) if the deal is shorter or longer.

The picture at the top of this article is not of either of the players discussed in the article.

Adam Duvall would be another option for this type of role. He's a few months younger; he strikes out more than Pham and he's run some pretty ugly OBPs in his career, but his overall offensive production has been better than Pham's over the past few years and he probably has somewhat more defensive value, including being a backup CF. I'm not sure how excited I'd be about either of them, but if you wanted to fill a right-handed outfield bat role with a short-term veteran, they might be close to equivalent.

Either the Twins have a 160-year-old still chasing the dream in their minor-league system (and more power to him if so) - or the baseball-ref link under Will Holland's name goes to a different player. I followed that link because I thought I remembered Holland being a prospect of some note a few years ago. Apparently he's a fast runner but hasn't really hit at any level yet.

The current abundance of MLB players named T. Rogers, plus the memory of Twins bullpens of the past few years full of Tylers, Taylors and Trevors, really leads to some mistaken identities, huh.

From the article: "Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline akin to what he was known for with Cleveland. The depth has started to rear its head, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Twins prospect currently projected to be a Number One starter. That’s where the focus has to be, and thus far dollars haven't been allocated for one." Wasn't part of the reputation of Cleveland's pitching pipeline that they could take guys who weren't evaluated as possible aces as prospects, and turn them into good pitchers in the major leagues? Maybe I remember Bieber popping up late in his time in the minors, and getting some potential-number-1 hype. But did their other recently developed guys like McKenzie ever get that kind of projection? And looking farther back, didn't guys like Kluber and Carrasco kinda just keep getting better in the majors? Not to split hairs about an article that's a solid summary of where the team's pitching stands. But it seems like a big part of Cleveland's success that other teams wanted to emulate came from getting high-percentile outcomes from guys who "only" projected as #2-4 starters. And that's also something the Twins really could stand to get better at! -- but something that at least seems feasible with the current crop of arms.

My impression is of Rodón being at a similar level to Ray or Gausman, and they were mentioned often in the same bucket when they were free agents last offseason. But I've seen speculation in more than one place (including in the MLBTR Twins offseason outlook, published today) that he will sign for significantly more than the other guys did last year. I don't really get the reason for those predictions. I do agree with you that Rodón for 4-5 years at $21-24 million is more than palatable.

This roster blueprint was thrown at the wall with the idea that this team has some legitimately promising depth, but that depth is highly volatile due to inexperience or injuries, so some stability, reliability and experience is needed. The idea was to raise the ceiling of the roster with at least one big move, and to raise the floor in several other places. Big move: Carlos Rodón, 4 or 5 years at $21M/year He's answered a lot of the health questions that surrounded him this year and the Twins supposedly have engaged with him as a free agent before. Adding to this rotation makes more sense to do at the top than the bottom. This move still feels like a gamble on Rodón's health, but I believe this is the best place on the roster to invest serious cash. Wouldn't it be funny if... move: Max Kepler to the Yankees for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks Last offseason, the Yankees wanted IKF enough to take a salary the Twins wanted to clear in order to get him. This offseason, the Twins make the counter-move... The Twins' biggest positional need is a shortstop, but likely only for a year (I'm betting that between Lewis and Lee, there will be one home-grown MLB SS ready by late 2023.) Arguably another significant need is a righty-hitting outfielder who can hit better than Celestino and can play defense better than Garlick. Hicks hits better from the right side and still plays CF credibly. Even so, I get the sense that even the deep-pocketed Yankees would be ready to move on from Hicks, who is no longer a full-time starter in New York and has 3 years left on his contract. And their top prospect Volpe is about ready to take over at shortstop. I almost made this a pure salary dump with the Twins sending a mid-level prospect, but Kepler's defense and lefty bat seem to make sense for the Yankees, and clearing his salary commitment (still smaller than Hicks') helps the Twins too. Bullpen upgrade: Rafael Montero for $4.5M I think some investment happens here, but not a big investment. Montero has been a setup guy, he's been good more often than he's been bad, and this is just a little more than he's been making the last few years. I also looked at some part-time starting pitchers who had had recent success in limited time in the bullpen—Eflin from the Phillies, Nick Martinez from the Padres—thinking a swingman/6th starter would help this roster. However, I'm guessing these guys will look for a chance to start and/or to re-up with their more successful current teams. Depth moves: Another infield-oriented utility player in Harrison. It seems like the Twins trust Gordon just as much in the OF as in the IF at this point, and Celestino could use some polish to his offensive game at AAA. Casali as a backup catcher. Winder goes back to the minors to see if he can stay on track as a starter or should prepare for the bullpen longer term. Megill and Morán are ready to sink or swim in the majors. Accounting for injuries: With the uncertainty around Mahle and Maeda, I'm just guessing one of them isn't ready out of the gate in spring. I went with Maeda for opening day; I'm a fan and maybe not totally objective, but I believe in a bounce-back from him and I'm uncertain about Mahle's shoulder. Mahle is still tendered and his salary is accounted for. If and when he is healthy, this is a significant boost to rotation depth. Kirilloff is listed as backup OF but would get plenty of run in the corners and 1B if he's healthy, and would probably be replaced on the roster altogether if he's really not healthy. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($6.5M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Aaron Hicks ($10.8M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Josh Harrison ($4.5M) Backup ? Curt Casali ($3.0M) SP1: Carlos Rodon ($21.0M) SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.0M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.7M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.7M) RP: Rafael Montero ($4.5M) Tendered, not listed: Tyler Mahle ($8.0 M) Payroll is 7.86% under budget

The trade with the Marlins seems pretty lopsided in the Twins' favor—I don't know a ton about Eder or Cabrera, but they both are or have been notable pitching prospects, no? Larnach and Mahle have potential to be quite good and valuable but also have significant health questions, and I doubt either Megill or Pagan has much trade value. Conversely, in the trade with the Jays, I know Moreno is a fantastic catching prospect, but as the return for trading 2/5 of an opening day rotation plus a guy with a reasonable claim on being the Twins' most valuable position player? Seems steep! Fun exercise to think about big moves, though.

It's a little hard to parse the available information about Andrus' contract, but I don't believe he has that player option any longer. I think that because the As DFAed him, and then the White Sox signed him after he cleared waivers rather than claiming him, he signed a new deal in August and the plate-appearance provision no longer applies. Presumably the As still owed him the rest of his salary on his previous contract, but he didn't get to the PA threshold for the option while playing on that contract. It definitely is a little weird to follow, but that's what these sources seem to indicate: Spotrac contract page; article about Andrus' release that details some of the original contract terms. I think Andrus could be an interesting stopgap. He had a bit of a bounce-back this year, especially at the end of the year with the Sox. And assuming that option from his old contract isn't setting his market, I doubt he'll be looking for anything close to $15 million.

Lee: ?? He was promoted through 3 levels of the minors and reached AA within 3 months of being drafted. He won't be ready for opening day 2023, but even in an organization that can be conservative about prospect promotions, he's going to be in the majors in much, much less time than 5 years. Basically agreed on Martin and Palacios. The Twins have been committed to playing Lewis at shortstop other than when he was in the AFL (with other SS on the roster to consider) and when they prematurely tried to shoehorn him in that super-sub role at the MLB level. They were willing to start him at SS every day when they first promoted him. I don't know that he'll stay there long term, and his knee is now a huge wild card, but if the latest surgery recovery goes anywhere near as well as the first one did, he'll get a chance to start at SS again. Certainly the timing of Correa opting out isn't good, with Lewis and Lee likely to be close but not ready at the beginning of 2023. IMO signing him could be a totally defensible decision and letting him walk could be too, depending on their evaluations of Lee and Lewis.

Do those MiLB highlight videos (in embedded tweets) freeze for anyone else right at the high point of the action? For example, the video goes still with a spinning wheel when the triple is about to bounce off the wall?

But even the quoted part is worded to say that the Padres "finish[ed] the season with a below-.500 record." It's not clear, but I was guessing that "finished the season" counted their playoff record - so they were two games above .500 in the regular season but playoff wins and losses took them below .500. "Finished the season" would be weird wording to describe this, but maybe that explains it?

Is there a reason to activate Mahle a day early if it means losing a reliever who could pitch tomorrow? Does he need to be activated to work out with the team or something?

I think there's one more game to go before Mahle starts - Gray pitching tomorrow. So it actually lines up: any of those relievers will be fresh tomorrow, and one of them could give some length and then be replaced on the roster. I don't think Pagan or Duffey is in real danger of losing his spot - like it or not, veteran-ness will play a role.

I know every player is a pro and a competitor and able to focus on the present and all that, but it must be a little weird for a player to get traded to the team he was playing against yesterday, no?

Exactly - was just thinking, this is a nice deal to see, but only the second-most-desirable López

4 players seems like kind of a lot to give up for a reliever, although Canó may be in the deal more for an immediate fill-in for López' spot than for expected future value. But the quantity of players given up isn't a reason to knock the move. Acquiring López clearly fills a need and I'm glad to see it.

If a one-for-one swap were on the table, they should do it. How much it would set the team back this year depends a bit on Larnach's injury recovery—if they realistically expect him to be healthy for the stretch run, he kind of replaces Kirilloff's lefty bat, and if not, maybe they need to look for a rental bat elsewhere. But even if Kirilloff has loads of potential and a number of years under contractual control, a corner bat for 2+ years of a #2-ish starter is a good deal IMO.

MLBTR says Marlins are "open to offers" on Pablo López and are looking for left-handed power hitting: link I know the Baseball Trade Values simulator sometimes values certain players weirdly and maybe shouldn't be trusted, but for what it's worth, it views trading Larnach, Steer, and Canterino for López and Anthony Bass as almost a dead-even match. In the real world, 2 out of 3 players on the Twins side of that deal are hurt or rehabbing, which probably will affect the value assessment somewhat. But this kind of framework for a trade, at least, looks realistic.