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Adam Duvall would be another option for this type of role. He's a few months younger; he strikes out more than Pham and he's run some pretty ugly OBPs in his career, but his overall offensive production has been better than Pham's over the past few years and he probably has somewhat more defensive value, including being a backup CF. I'm not sure how excited I'd be about either of them, but if you wanted to fill a right-handed outfield bat role with a short-term veteran, they might be close to equivalent.

Either the Twins have a 160-year-old still chasing the dream in their minor-league system (and more power to him if so) - or the baseball-ref link under Will Holland's name goes to a different player. I followed that link because I thought I remembered Holland being a prospect of some note a few years ago. Apparently he's a fast runner but hasn't really hit at any level yet.

The Astros re-signed Rafael Montero. Three years, $34.5M. He's someone I would have been happy to see the Twins pursue, but that's a chunk of change for a relief pitcher.

MLBTR posted its top 50 free agents predictions, which include contract predictions and the individual writers' guesses at the team to sign each player: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html All 4 of their writers guessed the Twins will sign a high-end position player: one predicting they'll retain Correa and one each for Bogaerts, Swanson, and Willson Contreras. They collectively didn't predict the Twins for much of the higher-end pitching, but that's a small group with a lot of teams looking to sign them, so I guess it's not really surprising that a sample of 4 writers would pick other landing spots. One of the writers did have the Twins signing Bassitt, and another had them getting Kenley Jansen for the bullpen. One writer predicted the Twins for José Abreu as well. That doesn't seem like the best positional fit, but I wouldn't be upset if it happened. Overall, while these writers are just making guesses with perhaps more industry sources than the average fan, I like that they predict the Twins aiming for a few players at the top end of the market, rather than supposed "value" deals at the back end.

Interesting ideas here. Obviously we're all just guessing, not only at what the Twins actually will do but at their internal evaluations of most of these players. With that said, I've seen several of these blueprints (not just this one) where Nick Gordon seems to be the main or only infield option on the bench. The Twins were willing to use him sparingly as an emergency SS, but I'm not sure they see him as primarily an infielder any more. Do you think Corey Dickerson is a significant upgrade over Larnach or Kepler to start in an outfield corner? Especially when he bats from the same side and also doesn't really play CF? (Side note: I had to look him up on Baseball Reference, and noticed that before 2008 there hadn't been a Dickerson in pro ball since 1917, but since 2008 there have been three.)

The current abundance of MLB players named T. Rogers, plus the memory of Twins bullpens of the past few years full of Tylers, Taylors and Trevors, really leads to some mistaken identities, huh.

From the article: "Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline akin to what he was known for with Cleveland. The depth has started to rear its head, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Twins prospect currently projected to be a Number One starter. That’s where the focus has to be, and thus far dollars haven't been allocated for one." Wasn't part of the reputation of Cleveland's pitching pipeline that they could take guys who weren't evaluated as possible aces as prospects, and turn them into good pitchers in the major leagues? Maybe I remember Bieber popping up late in his time in the minors, and getting some potential-number-1 hype. But did their other recently developed guys like McKenzie ever get that kind of projection? And looking farther back, didn't guys like Kluber and Carrasco kinda just keep getting better in the majors? Not to split hairs about an article that's a solid summary of where the team's pitching stands. But it seems like a big part of Cleveland's success that other teams wanted to emulate came from getting high-percentile outcomes from guys who "only" projected as #2-4 starters. And that's also something the Twins really could stand to get better at! -- but something that at least seems feasible with the current crop of arms.

My impression is of Rodón being at a similar level to Ray or Gausman, and they were mentioned often in the same bucket when they were free agents last offseason. But I've seen speculation in more than one place (including in the MLBTR Twins offseason outlook, published today) that he will sign for significantly more than the other guys did last year. I don't really get the reason for those predictions. I do agree with you that Rodón for 4-5 years at $21-24 million is more than palatable.

Rodón made $21.5M this year and is likely opting out of the remaining $22.5 on his deal. A longer-term deal would keep the average annual value from going too high. Would you expect him to get much more than recent free agents like Gausman, Wheeler, etc?

This roster blueprint was thrown at the wall with the idea that this team has some legitimately promising depth, but that depth is highly volatile due to inexperience or injuries, so some stability, reliability and experience is needed. The idea was to raise the ceiling of the roster with at least one big move, and to raise the floor in several other places. Big move: Carlos Rodón, 4 or 5 years at $21M/year He's answered a lot of the health questions that surrounded him this year and the Twins supposedly have engaged with him as a free agent before. Adding to this rotation makes more sense to do at the top than the bottom. This move still feels like a gamble on Rodón's health, but I believe this is the best place on the roster to invest serious cash. Wouldn't it be funny if... move: Max Kepler to the Yankees for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks Last offseason, the Yankees wanted IKF enough to take a salary the Twins wanted to clear in order to get him. This offseason, the Twins make the counter-move... The Twins' biggest positional need is a shortstop, but likely only for a year (I'm betting that between Lewis and Lee, there will be one home-grown MLB SS ready by late 2023.) Arguably another significant need is a righty-hitting outfielder who can hit better than Celestino and can play defense better than Garlick. Hicks hits better from the right side and still plays CF credibly. Even so, I get the sense that even the deep-pocketed Yankees would be ready to move on from Hicks, who is no longer a full-time starter in New York and has 3 years left on his contract. And their top prospect Volpe is about ready to take over at shortstop. I almost made this a pure salary dump with the Twins sending a mid-level prospect, but Kepler's defense and lefty bat seem to make sense for the Yankees, and clearing his salary commitment (still smaller than Hicks') helps the Twins too. Bullpen upgrade: Rafael Montero for $4.5M I think some investment happens here, but not a big investment. Montero has been a setup guy, he's been good more often than he's been bad, and this is just a little more than he's been making the last few years. I also looked at some part-time starting pitchers who had had recent success in limited time in the bullpen—Eflin from the Phillies, Nick Martinez from the Padres—thinking a swingman/6th starter would help this roster. However, I'm guessing these guys will look for a chance to start and/or to re-up with their more successful current teams. Depth moves: Another infield-oriented utility player in Harrison. It seems like the Twins trust Gordon just as much in the OF as in the IF at this point, and Celestino could use some polish to his offensive game at AAA. Casali as a backup catcher. Winder goes back to the minors to see if he can stay on track as a starter or should prepare for the bullpen longer term. Megill and Morán are ready to sink or swim in the majors. Accounting for injuries: With the uncertainty around Mahle and Maeda, I'm just guessing one of them isn't ready out of the gate in spring. I went with Maeda for opening day; I'm a fan and maybe not totally objective, but I believe in a bounce-back from him and I'm uncertain about Mahle's shoulder. Mahle is still tendered and his salary is accounted for. If and when he is healthy, this is a significant boost to rotation depth. Kirilloff is listed as backup OF but would get plenty of run in the corners and 1B if he's healthy, and would probably be replaced on the roster altogether if he's really not healthy. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($6.5M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Aaron Hicks ($10.8M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Josh Harrison ($4.5M) Backup ? Curt Casali ($3.0M) SP1: Carlos Rodon ($21.0M) SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.0M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.7M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.7M) RP: Rafael Montero ($4.5M) Tendered, not listed: Tyler Mahle ($8.0 M) Payroll is 7.86% under budget

Seattle's the only AL team in this field that I'm at all excited to see win. The one appealing thing about seeing Houston advance is that it could set up a rematch of the 2017 World Series against the Dodgers, or alternatively if SD wins their series, a rematch against Darvish who took some of the worst of Houston's cheating-aided offense.

The trade with the Marlins seems pretty lopsided in the Twins' favor—I don't know a ton about Eder or Cabrera, but they both are or have been notable pitching prospects, no? Larnach and Mahle have potential to be quite good and valuable but also have significant health questions, and I doubt either Megill or Pagan has much trade value. Conversely, in the trade with the Jays, I know Moreno is a fantastic catching prospect, but as the return for trading 2/5 of an opening day rotation plus a guy with a reasonable claim on being the Twins' most valuable position player? Seems steep! Fun exercise to think about big moves, though.

It's a little hard to parse the available information about Andrus' contract, but I don't believe he has that player option any longer. I think that because the As DFAed him, and then the White Sox signed him after he cleared waivers rather than claiming him, he signed a new deal in August and the plate-appearance provision no longer applies. Presumably the As still owed him the rest of his salary on his previous contract, but he didn't get to the PA threshold for the option while playing on that contract. It definitely is a little weird to follow, but that's what these sources seem to indicate: Spotrac contract page; article about Andrus' release that details some of the original contract terms. I think Andrus could be an interesting stopgap. He had a bit of a bounce-back this year, especially at the end of the year with the Sox. And assuming that option from his old contract isn't setting his market, I doubt he'll be looking for anything close to $15 million.

Do you think that when Kluber faces the Guardians, he doesn't think of them as the team he used to play for?

Megill to the IL, Aaron Sanchez selected, Garlick moved to the 60-day IL. It makes sense that they added somebody who could give some length to the bullpen. Not sure if there's anything to read into adding Sanchez, specifically, back to the roster just for one series. Maybe a small signal that the Twins would be interested in bringing him back next year? ... or more likely they just think his arm is fresh.

The old "pitch long relief today, head to the minors tomorrow" shuttle.

Lee: ?? He was promoted through 3 levels of the minors and reached AA within 3 months of being drafted. He won't be ready for opening day 2023, but even in an organization that can be conservative about prospect promotions, he's going to be in the majors in much, much less time than 5 years. Basically agreed on Martin and Palacios. The Twins have been committed to playing Lewis at shortstop other than when he was in the AFL (with other SS on the roster to consider) and when they prematurely tried to shoehorn him in that super-sub role at the MLB level. They were willing to start him at SS every day when they first promoted him. I don't know that he'll stay there long term, and his knee is now a huge wild card, but if the latest surgery recovery goes anywhere near as well as the first one did, he'll get a chance to start at SS again. Certainly the timing of Correa opting out isn't good, with Lewis and Lee likely to be close but not ready at the beginning of 2023. IMO signing him could be a totally defensible decision and letting him walk could be too, depending on their evaluations of Lee and Lewis.

I'm more accepting of short outings and pitch counts than some, but have to wonder: Ober could pitch into the 8th, but Jax didn't get more than 10 pitches...

Do those MiLB highlight videos (in embedded tweets) freeze for anyone else right at the high point of the action? For example, the video goes still with a spinning wheel when the triple is about to bounce off the wall?

Speaking of Henriquez he was called up today and Rodriguez optioned. Updating this as Rodriguez was DFA'd. Rodriguez must be out of options, right? They didn't need a 40-man spot so that's the only reason I can think that they would DFA him. Seeing this amount of churn at the end of the Twins' pitching depth chart really highlights that they haven't subbed for a couple of the weaker spots on the position-player side like Palacios and Caleb Hamilton. There certainly are some understandable reasons for that—Hamilton could be DFA to make room for Jeffers or Larnach, for example, and there may not be a better shortstop-capable backup IF option than Palacios—but it's still kind of a drag to see these roster spots used on one rookie who's scuffling when called on to play regularly, and another who's hitless and mostly riding the pine.

Dereck Rodriguez is in the pen for game 2 of the double-header and apparently Trevor Megill is on the COVID IL. Hope he didn't cough on any of his teammates last night.

But even the quoted part is worded to say that the Padres "finish[ed] the season with a below-.500 record." It's not clear, but I was guessing that "finished the season" counted their playoff record - so they were two games above .500 in the regular season but playoff wins and losses took them below .500. "Finished the season" would be weird wording to describe this, but maybe that explains it?

You could argue that they have two Hamiltons that don't need to stay on the roster, even.

I guess a fresh lefty reliever and a fast guy for defensive replacement and pinch-running are useful enough for the next few games. It's hard to see why either of these players - especially a reliever who was just DFA'ed from a worse bullpen than the Twins' - would be a priority to have on the roster once the players potentially set to return from injuries start coming back in the next couple weeks. So maybe they intend for these guys to be reinforcements just for the very near future?

Is there a reason to activate Mahle a day early if it means losing a reliever who could pitch tomorrow? Does he need to be activated to work out with the team or something?