LA Vikes Fan

It would interesting to know if Lewis regularly had stretching training like yoga, pilates, or similar movements. If not, sounds like something that should be incorporated into this routine. I'm no professional quality athlete but can say that pilates in particular really helped me whine coming back from ACL surgery and in the years beyond.

88-74, win division, #3 seed in playoffs. I see them winning the first round of the playoffs and being competitive in round 2 but ultimately losing in the ALDS, probably to the Yankees. By midseason Margot, Kepler, and Santana are traded or hurt, replaced by Miranda, Larnach, and Martin, as the Twins lean into a youth movement since the rest of the division does very little to challenge them. Varland is in the bullpen by July as the #2 closer, replaced in the rotation by a combination of SWR, a replacement level veteran or two like Odo or Vince Vasquez, and Festa. Detroit comes on in the second half to provide some competition but ultimately wins 82-83 games. Division much more competitive in 2025 with Detroit an 85-90 win team and KC improving to .500.

The one thing I'd like to see the Twins have is a decent veteran starter in AAA like Odo or even Brad Keller. Clevinger turned down a $12m option so I'm guessing that he will only sign a MLB contract with maybe taking a 6 week ramp up time in AAA. I think that would actually work for the Twins since one of the starting five is probably going to be heard or ineffective by mid May and, by the way, Varland has been hammered his last two times out in spring training. I'm hoping that they're reaching out to Clevinger to see if they can't sign him to a one-year deal with an opt out.

I think this battle is about the richer players vs. the poorer players played out against a background of uncertain and perhaps declining TV revenues which totally upsets the business model for each of the teams. For many years now, the MLBPA and Boras have believed that paying ever increasing salaries to the high end players rebounds to the benefit of the average and lower and players whose salaries get pulled up by the ever hiding higher salaries on top. What's happened now is that virtuous cycle no longer appears to be working. The top is still getting paid very well on longer-term contracts, but only the real top, not the possibly or sometimes top like Snell and Montgomery. Snell is doing well but is not getting the long term guarantees because he has not been a consistently top performer; I think Montgomery has the same problem. The middle class in MLB is getting squeezed economically. There's really no reason for a team like the Twins or the 8 to 10 with lower revenues to pay a solid major league veteran $10-$15 million a year are a middle-of-the-road pitcher $15-$20 million a year unless you think you are in World Series contention. The CBA incentivizes those teams to spend that money on their farm systems and play younger, cheaper players in the hope you catch lightning in a bottle and have stars while they are still on cheaper contracts. The day of the eight year average veteran being in high demand and getting paid well (by baseball standards, by real person standards they're all paid well) is at least temporarily over. There simply no incentive for an average team to pay Michael Lorenzen $10-15 million a year for two years unless they think he is part of a group that will get them over the top. The middle-class ballplayer is not getting much of the rewards. The rewards are primarily going to the top and that's going to create tension in the union made up primarily of middle-class, lower class, and minor-league ballplayers. Clark and Boras are identified as favoring the high end players rather than the middle class or minor-league players. I think that's the tension here and it is not going to go away anytime soon.

Losing Francona is a big loss for Cleveland. He alone is worth 4-5 wins a year. I say the Guardians win around 77-80 games and are in a dogfight with KC for 3rd in the division. Detroit wins 82-86 games and presses the Twins all year.

I'd be pretty happy with these except for Buxton. I see him as a .250-.260 hitter, not the .228 they have for him. I actually agree with the projections for the 4 young guys - solid to good to very good (Lewis) but not outstanding. i do think Julien will hit better than .250 but not a lot better. I'd take his .370 projected OPS and .407 SLG every day of the week. I'd love to see Kepler and Kirilloff meet their projections. Both might be a little high. The one that I think is unfortunately the most accurate and a little scary is Santana. .229/.324/.416 (.740) is just not good enough for your regular 1B. I really wonder about him and I hope that Rocco doesn't just stick with him if he doesn't hit instead of giving Kirilloff the experience there or moving Julien over and bringing Lee up if neither one of them hits. I'll take the starters as projected. Would love to see all 5 with sub 4.00 ERAs but don't think we will. I agree that we will see at least 25-30 starts by someone other than the top 5 listed. We need to find veteran reinforcement. Clevinger, Keller, and Barria are still out there as far as I know . . . Also, Julio Teheran and Drew Pomeranz just become available through opt-outs. Let's get one of these guys, put him in AAA until May 15 and reassess then.

Actually, now that more time has passed this Cleavinger Idea might work. He isn't ready to break with the MLB club having missed spring training. Give him a 1 year MLB deal with an opt out on May 15. He spends 6 weeks in AAA building p and showing he's ready to go. The chances are at least 50/50 by May 15 we have at least one starter who need an IL stint or is ineffective. If not, he opts out and goes somewhere else. Same logic would apply to guys like Julio Teheran, Brad Keller, or even Johnny Cueto.

I hear you but I think the real choice is Clevinger in the rotation with Varland in St. Paul, or Varland in the rotation with a veteran AAAA guy like Odo or Brad Keller as the 1st line of depth in St. Paul. I like Varland in the rotation better, but I also like him better as the AAA depth. Tough call.

Ugly. Two questions for those of us who can't watch the games. Did Wallner actually look good at the plate or did he get a scratch hit? Am I wrong or is Duarte looking very good as a long man this spring? Maybe he's the guy who stays instead of Sands. And finally, I feel for Eddie and Vargas for having to play on that team to keep their careers going (less for Gallo). It's going to be a very long year for the Nats and those two guys are probably long gone before that team turns it around.

I get it and hadn't really considered Lee not being on the 40 man as a factor, which it clearly is. I suspect they would give Larnach first shot if there's a need in the OF. I personally think Lee is closer to be ready so I would go a different way but I do understand giving Larnach as much play as possible in his last option year. I'm actually thinking they'd like Laranch to show something and then trade him at the deadline as part of a package for pitching. Like I said, I've been driving the "pump the Brakes on Lee" train all off season. I'm more open to him because I think Lee has shown considerable improvement at the plate and I am concerned that we are over reliant on 4 very unproven bats in Lewis, Julien, Jeffers, and Wallner. I have great confidence in Lewis, some confidence in Julien and Jeffers, and Wallner scares me for the reasons I put in my earlier post. I have no confidence is Margot as a season long solution, some in Castro but not a lot (and why make him a LF when his best value is his versatility), and I don't see a lot in AAA to come up and play every day given Larnach's past struggles. I'm just looking for alternatives. Most years I wouldn't care because losing a few winnable games here and there doesn't matter if you're not a contender but this year we are in my view. I see Lee as the best alternative.

Agreed on Lee not going to the OF but the OF could still effect when he comes up to the Twins. Right now, Wallner isn't hitting. At all. Hopefully that changes quickly. IF it doesn't and IF Kirilloff is hitting (or if Margot or Kepler gets hurt), one obvious solution is to send Wallner down to AAA to work out his issues, move Kirilloff to LF or to the OF with Wallenr if it's an injury situation, move Julien to IB (where he apparently is getting work in ST), and bring up Lee to play 2B. That would actually be my preferred plan to deal with a corner OF issue over playing Margot or even Castro every day. No one is suggesting Brooks Lee play OF. I am suggesting, however, that he is the first one up whether the need is in the OF or the IF, because a hitting Kirilloff is the best OF solution in the short term.

Are you talking about Wallner, Kirilloff, or both? Wallner had a great 2023 overall but he hit .208 in August, .209 in July, rebounded in September (always a tough projection month given the number of ABs against bad teams' AAA pitching), and went 0-8 in the playoffs with 5 SOs. He's 2-35 in ST. That suggest he's seeing an adjustment from good pitching and hasn't been able to adjust back yet. I'm in favor of giving him 4-6 weeks to adjust but I wonder if he'll be ale to do so. Lots of guys go up and down their first couple of years. I think it's waaaaay to early to anoint Wallner as one of our best hitters. He's an intriguing guy who could be a quality MLB hitter but we won't know that until at least the end of this year and probably not until next year. I think there is at least a 50/50 chance that Wallner will need a MiLB stint this year to get back into a groove. This team can contend - we can't use a lot of MLB ABs on unestablished guys trying to find their groove. That's what AAA is for. Kirilloff is just an injury waiting to happen. I feel for the guy but shoulder and wrist issues are very troubling and just not good for long term success. I fully expect him to spend at least one or two 10 day IL stints this year. Add in his less than stellar glove work so far - maybe he'll improve, Julien has - and I think counting on him for the long term is very risky. My point is that Lee will be up sooner rather than later, and the most likely reason will be to replace Kirilloff or Wallner IMHO. I'm been king of the "pump the brakes" on him but his ST performance has shown me that he's closer to ready than I thought.

Wallner has had a very bad spring and has 2 options remaining. Lee has had a very good spring and has all his options. I think Lee goes down to AAA to start the season and Wallner gets a month or so to turn it around. Once we pass the date where calling up Lee loses a year of control, which I think is about May 15, Lee is back if Wallner isn't hitting or Kirilloff is hurt yet again. Lee moves to 2B, Julien to 1B with Santana, and either Kirilloff or Wallner mans LF with Castro while the other one is on the Il again (Kirilloff) or back in AAA working on his swing (Wallner). I'd say let's do that now based on ST results but you can't count on ST results to carry over and losing a year of control on Lee isn't worth it.

Agreed. Two years at $5-6m a year? Sign me up. Unfortunately, he won't take that. More likely to take 2 years at $8-10M a year. Tougher call with Varland ready to go this year. Probably better to bring in AAAA depth like Brad Keller.

I've read that Lorenzen wants a minimum 2 year deal and that's why he hasn't yet signed. I'm not sure I would sign him for multiple years. Plus, the Yankees and White Sox are already talking to him. My guess is that Varland is the #5 and the Twins sign a starter they can stash in AAA. Think Brad Keller, Jaime Barria, Eric Lauer, etc....

Well I guess we can close up this thread. DeSclafani going to Il and it looks like it may be a significant injury. Could be a TJ surgery on the horizon.

Clevinger's not what we need, but we do need a starter. I'd rather have someone we can stash in AAA as the 6th starter so Varland can be in the rotation from the get go. Too bad Jake Odorrizzi already got signed. There will be a spot for whoever we sign, if we do, at some point this year. Brad Keller maybe?

Really? I thought we got a solid back end reliever with a 2.61 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 2023 and a borderline Top 100 prospect, along with an oft injured starting pitcher and an A ball flier, in return for one year of an oft injured bat first, poor fielding second baseman with a consistent 115 OPS+? Let's see, Topa's WAR last year - 1.6. Polanco's WAR last year - 2.0. Add in the top 100 prospect and it seems like a fair deal to me. Sure, Topa may be a one year wonder and Polanco may have a career renaissance at age 30 plus. Gonzalez is a top 100 prospect on some lists and not on others - BA: NR | MLB: 79 | ATH: 96 | BP: NR, and sure, he may be in the Show in 2 years or working at McDonalds. I love me some Jorge Polanco but I think you guys have to recognize that his career arc from here is likely down, not up, and that's assuming he's healthy enough to play more than 100 games. He's been a great Twin in the past. Not so likely in the future. He was expendable with the breakout year from Julien and the development of Lee. Why didn't we get a mid rotation established starter or a high upside young starter for Polanco? Because he isn't worth it at this stage of his career. I hope Jorge has a great season and makes the All Star team. Hell, I hope he plays 120 games. But let's not overrate who he is and what he's worth. And let's not use him to take pot shots at the front office for making a trade from surplus to get the necessary bullpen help and a real upside prospect.

Very helpful, thanks. I vote that DeSclafani goes on the 60 day IL, and uses the full 30 day ramp up period in St. Paul to be ready to pitch in Minnesota on about June 1. Varland in the rotation until then we'll see where we are on June 1. .

Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance. Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think? Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?

Good question. I don't know. I'll start a thread so we can discuss since this one is for the Spring Breakout Game.

You're right. DeSclafini opens the year on the 10 day IL, then takes the full 20 day rehab period in AAA to work up his inning load. Varland is the 5th starter out of the gate and if he pitches well, an interesting decision awaits. Frankly, an injury or ineffectiveness probably makes the decision but this could be fun to watch.

I agree, and I think his window could close fast. There is a lot of internal competition and external solutions are not hard to find for a 1B/DH with a poor glove. Miranda looked like a solid MLB hitter in 2022, and has looked healthy and is hitting in ST. He isn't a great 1B but frankly probably as good or better than Kirilloff. Larnach is in a make or break situation and could transition to IB. Brooks Lee could force the issue this year by tearing up AAA and if Kirilloff isn't hitting or is hurt again, you could easily see Lee coming up to play 2B and Julien moving over to 1B. Stevenson and Severino look like guys who should get a MLB shot soon. I think Kirilloff' s biggest worry should be Miranda and Lee. I think Miranda is the hitter we saw in 2022 and Lee is less than a full season away from being ready. Kirilloff doesn't have the glove to hold either Miranda or Julien off at 1B on the defensive side so he has to hold them off at the plate. Another injury and he could be Wally Pipped by either Miranda or Lee (with Julien moving to 1B). Unfortunately, I don't think Kirilloff is worth much more in trade than a B/B+ prospect with his injury history so that route doesn't make a lot of sense right now. I hope he comes out firing.

Because Polanco isn't worth a quality starter unless you include high end prospects like Lee, JRod, Festa, or guys like that. Same for Kepler. Aging guys who can hit well and field some (Polanco) or field well and hit some (Kepler) aren't worth a #2, #3, or even a young #4 starter. They're worth what we got - a quality reliever, an older back-end starter and prospects. The Twins weren't willing to trade their good young prospects so they couldn't trade for a good young starter. We'll see if that changes at the trade deadline.

Agreed. It all depends on Kirilloff's defense. He presently is a decent, not good or great, decent, bat for a 1B. He is not good defensively. Defense matters for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. His error against the Astros in Game 2 was very significant for the outcome of that series. He either needs to improve defensively so his current bat plays or he needs to hit at more of an .850 plus OPS clip to carry his glove as a part time 1B, part time DH. Improvement in both is really what he needs to do to become an everyday player. I sympathize with his injury history. Having said that, he's 26, not 23-24. He breaks through this year he's a part of the core. If he doesn't and Lee does, he's out of a position, probably not part of the core going forward, and becomes trade bait. the sports (and business) worlds can be cruel. I hope he really breaks out and he can be part of the next 5 Twins teams. I think he has this year to show that and it's not starting out well in ST on the glove side. If he doesn't get off to a good start soon, it wouldn't surprise me if he got traded to a non-playoff team or to one hurting for offense (think Miami) as part of a package for pitching.