LA Vikes Fan

I agree. I actually expect Varland to open up as the Closer in St. Paul. He would then be the first guy up for the inevitable injured or ineffective bullpen member assuming he is doing well in AAA. I expect him with the Twins by May 15 and once up, I think he stays up. There's really 3 potential pen spots after Duran, Jax, Stewart (assuming he's healthy),Sands and Coulombe. I think the top 3 likely to make the team are Tonkin, Alcala, and Castellano. Tonkin may be a trade candidate to some desperate team in return for an A ball lottery ticket. If he's gone, the last spots are Castellano and Topa with Varland at AAA. If Tonkin is still with the team, Topa goes to AA because Topa has options and Tonkin does not. I don't think a trade with Philly is likely, so we are going to have to carry Castellano for the year to keep him. They wouldn't have picked him up if they weren't prepared to keep him. My likely bullpen is Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, and Castellano. Topa makes the team if one of those guys is traded or hurt. Varland starts as the AAA closer so he can get used to high leverage relief experience and then comes up when Stewart goes on Il.

While it seems weird to lead off Wallner to us guys who have been watching baseball since the 60s, it actually does make a lot of sense to have the top5 spots be occupied by your top 5 hitters. Identifying the top 5 hitters on this year's Twins team is pretty easy - Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis and Larnach. Miranda and Jeffers are 6 and 7. I would go Correa, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers myself, but I could see going Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, and Lewis for the reasons you mentioned. Will be weird to see but probably the best approach. The differences in plate appearance by batting order number is pretty interesting. Hitting first gives you 13 more PAs per year than 2nd on average, 28 more than third, etc., about 13-15 PAs per spot in the lineup. Each spot in the lineup is worth 13-15 PAs per season than the one directly behind and those amounts accumulate. Better to give those PAs to our better hitters,

Agreed. All of the guys in this price range are a crapshoot and all have warts. Grichuk is a below average fielder, Bell may be cooked and is a poor fielder, Bader can field but is not much of a hitter, France is Bell with a slightly better glove and slightly worse bat, etc. Did we get the "right" guys? Who the hell knows. The FO went for gloves over bats. Fielding tends to last longer so I get the idea. Only time will tell if it's the right call. Frankly, if my choice were two of the above 4, I would probably have gone with Bader and Bell but I would have had to find another $4m or so for that combo. And, by the way, I would keep Keirsey as the 5th OF and keep Castro in the IF UTL slot rather than Julien as a backup IF with Castro as a backup OF assuming the bench will be Vasquez/Jeffers, Lee, Castro and one of Julien, Martin, Gaspar, or Keirsey. Any bets of which of those last 4 makes the team? While I'd prefer Keirsey, my money's on Julien.

Don’t these stats prove that the Twins were right to platoon these hitters except for Kepler? The goal is to win games. Guys being put in situations where they consistently fail doesn’t help you win games. I think Wallner and Larnach will get a chance in ST to show they can hit LHs since we appear to be going with 4 OFs plus Castro, who also doesn’t hit LH pitching.

Agree on Lee, at least for ST, but I think they need him to make the team to be the backup SS. Castro stinks at SS and we don't have anyone else unless they think Lewis can still play SS (and he can't). I think it's a 60/40 time share at 2B between Castro and Lee, with Castro getting some time at 3B but not a lot. I think 3B is 70/30 Lewis and Miranda, with Miranda also getting the short end of a 60/40 split at 1B with France. The DH spot is an amalgam of Lewis, Buxton, Miranda, France, and off days for Correa, Wallner, and Jeffers. Larnach and Bader are a pretty strict LF platoon, with Bader also on the short end of a 60/40 split in CF and a late inning defensive replacement. This all leaves one more spot. Who gets it - Julien, Keirsey, Gaspar, Ford, or Martin? I think you look to the most unsettled positions and see who fits those positions. Those are 2B, a RH hitting corner OF, and a LH hitting 1B.. Julien can play 1B and 2B (sort of) and Martin can play OF and 2B (sort of). I have to think those two have the best shot in that order. Although I'd love to see Keirsey force his way onto the opening day roster by continuing to play this well throughout ST, I think it requires an OF injury for him to make the club out of ST or during the season for that matter. I think Gaspar and Ford are AAA depth unless they have a strong desire to have an emergency C on the 26 man roster and they keep Gaspar.

I'm in on 7 of the 10. I htink you're right on with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9. Contraries: 6 - Ty France makes the roster and starts at 1B or DH 4-5 days a week. Hits around .255/.325/.410 (.735) with meh defense and is lauded for his "veteran leadership". Plays somewhere else in 2026. 8 - Twins don't trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline because the Astros are in their division race and he costs too much ($18m). Instead go with who they have in pitching, with Festa in the rotation by June 15 for the rest of the year due to an injury to one of the starting 5. Do trade for a 2B and/or RH hitting OF/DH who hits LH pitching well (my predictions on who below). 10 - Twins win right around 88-90 games, finish second in the division to Detroit (!), who wins 93. Twins get a Wild Card, beat Baltimore in WC round, beat Texas in ALDS, lose to Yankees or Boston in ALCS. And now for #11 - 11- Twins announce new buyer by All Star break, group lead by random billionaire you've never hear of with Tori Hunter or Justin Morneau part of the group. Allows Pohlads to swallow hard and trade good prospect(s) for Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward from the Angels to play 2B and RH hitting OF/DH, respectively .

I'm wondering if maybe Varland starts out as the AAA closer to get him used to late inning, high stress relief work. He's then the first RP up and pitches in late inning situations and as the "backup closer" so Jax can stay as the guy that faces the heart of the other teams' lineup in the 7th or 8th inning. Those two plus Duran and the 30-40 innings we get from Stewart this year could be a pretty formidable back end of the bullpen.

Bader is here as the platoon RH hitting OF, the question is with whom he will platoon. It's early but I'm betting that both Wallner and Larnach will get more ABs against LH pitching this spring to see who can hit it. Wallner is the leader in the clubhouse, especially with Rocco saying that he wants Bader's defense in LF. My money is on Wallner as a most every day player in RF with Larnach in a pretty strict platoon with Bader in LF and Bader getting a day or three in CF with Buxton at DH or sitting. With Castro able to play a passable OF, there's no pressing need for a 5th OF and probably no room at the inn for Martin or Keirsey as a backup OF. Fight for the last two position player roster spots (unless there's trade, but I don't think there will be) - Lee, Julien, Martin, Gaspar, and Keirsey, and one of them has to play 2B so Castro can be the UTL. Lee gets in if he hits at all because he's able to play 2B and also be the backup SS. Of the other 4, it cold be any of them for the last spot but I'm guessing Julien.. .

Agreed. Classic negotiating move of playing one against the other. Ishbia used the Twins opportunity to cut a better deal on taking over the White Sox. He wasn’t the only potential buyer, he’s the only publicly identified potential buyer. I think we all got a little head of ourselves because we’re hoping for improvement with Pohlad gone. We went through this drama in LA before the current group bought the Dodgers. My guess is that this isn’t the last twist and turn in the saga. Well, I guess we’ll find out how robust that market really is.

Agreed. We need a total of roughly 60-65 starts from the starters vying for the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation if the top 3 are healthy all year - more if they aren't. Most likely we will need 70 plus starts from that group. We aren't going to get that from 2 pitchers or even 3. We will need at least 4 and maybe more. My guess is that Paddack gets 20-25 starts, same for SWR, 15-20 for Festa, 10-15 for Matthews, and 5 or so from "other". To me, that's why we keep Paddack unless some team wants to trade us a starting caliber OF bat for him, which seems unlikely. If we can get 23-25 starts, 120-140 innings of 4 - 4.3 ERA work from Paddack he will be a great addition to the rotation at a very good price. I'm hopeful we can. I put the odds at 60/40 in favor but hey, I'm an optimist.

I think this is right on although I think the floor is a little higher (around 80 wins). The pieces are there IF they all or mostly perform. We could have one of the group in #4 fall off if Bader, Martin, etc. are at least league average or slightly better. The top 3 points pretty much have to happen though for the Twins to win 90 plus games. A 2 or 3 month injury to any of the top 3 starters, Correa, Lewis, or Buxton, probably dooms the season. 2 of the "other 4" potential starting pitchers have to perform at an average or better level or we also have big problems. With that said I'm actually pretty optimistic that we will win 85+ games with our pitching and could hit 90-94 wins if everything comes together. The talent is there but the margin for error is small. The real question is health.

I'm not as high on Lee as others here. I would love to see him have the defensive chops to play 2B at a high level because I think that's where his bat profiles. From here, he looks like a .265/.335/.420 type guy with a below 20% SO rate IF things go well. Nothing wrong with that; that's a solid to above average regular at 2B and maybe even at 3B. His bat is certainly good enough for 2B but probably not good enough to play 3B because of the lack of power unless the team gets power from an unusual position like 2B or SS. You also have to add in the complete lack of any speed (man runs like a catcher) and the fact that he may have a chronic back issue to manage. I think his highest and best use is as a great glove, solid to good bat 2B that hits in the 6 or 7 hole although I can see the temptation to make him the 3B and Lewis the 2B given their throwing arms (Lee good, Lewis erratic). Frankly this is kind of similar to the scouting report when Lee came out. Advanced bat, close to MLB ready, good chance to be a solid MLB regular, limited ceiling. And I'm just fine with that. Let's just not assume he will be more than a complimentary player on a good team if things work out. His "make" level is not as high as some others if we are realistic about what he brings to the table.

I think we need to put the Rocco has a “quick hook“ narrative to bed. I’ve been around a while and I remember when you expected every starter to go seven innings. Baseball isn’t played that way anymore, mostly because of the increased injury risk from those extra innings and the cost of starters. Starters did not last as many seasons in the old days because they pitched them so hard. Now we expect starting pitchers to go well into their mid 30s and we pay them so much that is just not worth taking a lot of extra risk, especially during your average midseason game. The Twins averaged 5.28 innings per start last year. The highest was the Braves at 5.58 innings per start, the average was 5.2. The Twins were tied for 12th Place in MLB for innings per start, so a little above average. Bottom line is that Rocco doesn’t pull starting pitchers any earlier than anybody else or at least didn’t last year. The evidence suggests that it’s unfair to criticize him for having a “quick hook” overall. He’s frankly more patient than many.

It may even be simpler than this. tell Buxton he could hit better with better core strength and have him exercise in a way to improve that strength. He will then increase his swing speed if his swing doesn't change or his body will naturally compensate with a slightly shorter swing to maintain his balance, both good results. With Lewis, tell him to swing had and to worry about SOs, his swing lengthens, and his bat speed increases. I know its not this easy but this would help both guys.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Twins traded Michael Helman to St. Louis for cash. It does not say how much cash. Well, I guess we now know how the team is paying ofr Bader and one of the players going to create a 40 man vacancy. Not very exciting.

I think the Twins have had the 2nd best offseason in the division. Detroit added Flaherty and Cobb to the rotation, Kahnle to the bullpen, and Torres to the IF. They are really improved on the pitching side (Torres is a meh addition) and now can run out Skubal, Flaherty and Cobb for a 3 game series. That's better than our top 3 because Skubal is probably the #1 or #2 starter in the American League depending on Gerrit Cole's health and Lopez = Flaherty. The bullpens are pretty similar, maybe ours a little better, and the Twins hit a little better last year but the Tigers have some guys coming back from injury sop they may hit better than we do in 2925. I predict the Central to be a very close race this year. My guess is that it will be won by Detroit with 90-92 wins, followed by the Twins at 86-90, KC and Cleveland both at 82-87, and the White Sox at below 70 wins. Frankly, all of the top 4 teams could finish 1st to 4th and win 82-92 games. Should be an exciting year.

I understand that mindset but just don't agree. I think the Twins plan on playing Miranda at 1B every day and the backup plan is Julien. To me, 1B is an offense first position and it is not worth playing a guy there who can't hit much no matter who good the glove. Plus, Rizzo is at most a 1 year stop gap who does nothing for the the next 2-4 years for this team. We need to develop the core for the hopefully opening window to really contend. Rizzo does nothing to help us do that.

I disagree. My view is that Larnach and Wallner play 5-6 days a week, 4 in the OF and 1 at DH for at least the first half of the season. That includes starting against LH pitching. Bader get his ABs in CF with Buxton playing 4 days a week there and 1-2 at DH, plus the inevitable Il stint for Buxton. The DH spot is a rotation of guys that includes Lewis and Mirnada. Bader gets his 200-250 ABs in the 50-70 games he has to start in CF for Buxton. This is the year to find out if Larnach and Wallner can be everyday players or are platoon guys. Play them every day.

I think you're right on Mountcastle's value. He should fetch a younger high upside pitcher plus. That plus could be a back end starter type now or an MiLB pitcher with upside. Something like Festa or Matthews plus Paddack or Culpepper. Probably a little more than I would do for a guy who's a Free agent in 2 seasons. I would trade Paddack plus the MiLB pitcher, say their choice of Culpepper or even Cory Lewis, but that probably isn't enough.

I love the Mountcastle idea but God, I hope you're wrong on Rizzo. He is cooked. OPS of .706 is 2023 and .638 in 2024 playing in that LH hitting bandbox called Yankee Stadium. He hits LH and his OPS was even worse against LH pitching at .536 in 2024. He'll be 36 this year. He does nothing to address our actual needs except give us a better glove at 1B. Mountcastle, sure for the right price (AAA starting pitching or Paddack, not any of the top 4). Rizzo? Please dear God, no.

I would normally completely agree with you but I just don't think we have that young guy to play CF. Keirsey strikes me more as a "floor setter" at best, not a guy that's going to increase the team's upside. Emma is at least a year away from a regular job although it would be great to see him come up and get his feet wet this season. I agree that you got to "let the young guys play" and strongly advocate for at least 500 PAs for all of Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda, and 300+ PAs for Julien, Lee and Martin. Unfortunately, we saw what would happen if we used our current group to replace Buxton for any significant period last year and the result was not pretty. It's not that none of these guys have the potential to hit better than Bader, it's that none of these guys can play a competent CF. CF and SS are the spots where you have to have a competent glove man so I'm okay with this signing, What I wouldn't be okay with is Bader taking a lot of at-bats away from Wallner or Larnach. Bader will take some until those two guys prove they can hit left-handed pitching, and you do have to give them a chance. I see Bader as much more a traditional fourth outfielder who plays two or three days a week to give Buxton a couple days off/DH days, and hit left-handed starting pitching,

I don't think Bader is a big step up for the Twins (hope I'm wrong), but I agree that the idea he's "blocking" Emma just doesn't make a lot of sense. Could Emma come up this year and get his feet wet? Absolutely, and I hope it happens. He is not ready to break camp on the 26 man roster and needs to show more before he's given a run in MLB playing 5 days a week. And if he's not going to play 5 days a week, he belongs in the Minors playing every day and showing he can tear up AAA pitching, get his AAA SO % down to at least 25% or below, and stay healthy for half a season. Emma was never the answer to "who will be the 4th OF/backup CF from April to July"? He wasn't even one of the multiple choices. Bader replaces Keirsey or Martin and moves Castro back to 2B/UTL. As for the second half of the year, I predict that injuries will give some AAA OFs a shot at playing time. If Emma is raking at AAA, he's likely to get a shot. If he isn't, he won't. I understand the argument that once they pay Bader 6m+ he stays for the year. New ownership may change that.

Classic 4th Outfielder. Good glove, can play at least a solid CF, not much of a hitter. Hopefully Buxton will be healthy enough so that Bader gets 250 ABs or less in CF. The only way he should play in the corners much at all is if his bat against LH is his 2023 bat (.299/.361/.575 (.936)), and not his 2024 bat against LHs (.204/.261/.350 (.612)). Also this means there isn't room for Martin and Keirsey on the 26 man roster absent a trade, although they will both undoubtedly get shots in 2025 due to injury.. Makes one curious as to whether they are part of an upcoming trade to open up the 40 man for Coulombe and Bader.

Makes one think there is a trade in the works that will open up 1 or 2 40 man spots, perhaps plus a DFA. I'm guessing the two spots are presently occupied by some combination of Paddack (traded), Henriquez, Headrick, and Keirsey (DFA since he is now pretty redundant with Bader the backup CF).

Hard to see how Canha is any better than the younger alternatives like Miranda, Larnach, Castro or even Martin or Julien. Add in the fact that at 35 Canha is who he is, whereas the others still have at least some room to improve (or sink down). This strikes me as the kind of move we've criticized a lot in the past, signing an average veteran past his prime to a cheap contract instead of going with the guys you have coming up. Sometimes it works like with Santana, but usually you get more of a Joey Gallo result. I'm going to say the same thing I said last year. Play the "young" guys and see what you have for at least the first half of the season. To me that means a consistent lineup with Lewis at 3B, Mirnada at 1B, Larnach in LF, Wallner in RF, either Lee or Julien at 2B, Castro as a super utility playing 2B and LF (occasional CF, although I would play Keirsey there) and Martin as a RH OF in spot duty. That includes hitting Larnach, Miranda, and Wallner against LH pitching. Change this only if we can trade for a young, controllable RH bat for the OF or 1B. Don't sign a vet past his prime as a stopgap. You can augment at the trade deadline. Normally that sounds like a pipe dream for the Twins but with new ownership we might actually be able to take on salary and get that one or two guy jolt we need. The Twins aren't one stopgap average vet away from contention. This team only contends if the younger core continues to improve and performs. I think that's a good bet but it is much more of a bet than a certainty. You can see the division improving; we need to find out what we have and the best (and only) way to do that is to invest playing time with the younger core. We are going to fall behind if we don't.