LA Vikes Fan

I think he gets one more shot here on as MiLB deal with a bad team like Oakland, Colorado, or maybe Miami. A punch in the gut by being released may be what he needs to get humbled and get better. Probably not, though. His ceiling was always limited by his lack of speed and athleticism and lack of real power. Just wait though, he'll get a chance with a bad team, have a good month, and the chorus here will be that we let a "great player" get away and it's all because the Twins "can't develop anybody". Just like the Tampa boards are probably saying the same thing about Joe Ryan.

I think that Ryan's comments need to be looked at in the context of this dumpster fire of a season. Ryan is a competitor and he knows he would be in high demand to pitch for a contender. The next 2 seasons are his age 30 and 31 years so it's not like he's a fresh faced 25 year old with his whole career in front of him. He's in the prime of his career pitching for a mediocre team that just got measurably worse at the deadline. I'm not surprised he might want out. I suspect anyone any good on the Twins is at least wondering if the grass might be greener elsewhere. I think Ryan wants to pitch on a team where the games matter and the playoffs are a real possibility, if not a likelihood. That ain't your 2025 Minnesota Twins and probably isn't the 2026 version unless a lot of ifs pan out in the very near future. I want the team to keep him at least until the 2026 trade deadline if only to keep us competitive and because deadline trades tend to get you better prospects back, but I wouldn't be surprised if his agent pushes for a trade this off season. It's hard to get good players to want to stay on bad teams. That doesn't make Ryan a bad guy, It just makes him a competitive guy who wants to be in a position to succeed.

I think you're right about Martin's likley playing time, but I think his last 100 ABs if repeatable make him an above average starting OF. We don't know if he'll do that, but he's shown some real improvement this year. Let's not forget he has only 321 MLB Abs (365 PAs) and is hitting at .262/.336/.358 overall, .284/.382/.375 in 88 ABs (102 PAs) for 2025. That 2025 guy starts on 90% of MLB teams, and the overall stats are of a good 4th OF on a good team playing 3-4 days a week. Clemens is a nice story but you're absolutely right, not an MLB starter. He's a bench guy at best and only that if we think he's competent as a backup 2B, 1B and OF. Not good enough if he can only play 1B. We'll know everything we need to know about the team if we break camp with Clemens starting at 1B.

I agree with this take. Martin has hit .282/.378/.376, 116 wRC+, since returning to the Twins. That is NOT a below average MLB hitter or mediocrity as some have called him. That is a starting MLB player on any team in the Majors, usually hitting in the 1, 2, or 9 hole. I agree that his defense in LF and his baserunning have been spotty but I also think we need to give him credit for improvement in both areas, particularly in LF. Unlike a guy like Larnach or Wallner, Martin has the raw athleticism to get better in the OF and the speed to be a real threat on the bases. I don't understand why you guys just want to write him off as though he'll never improve. He might not improve, but there's at least a 50/50 chance he will get better, and I'll take an average to above average fielding, speedy LF who hits .270-.290 with a .360 plus OBP at the top of my lineup every day of the week. IF/when Emma and Jenkins are ready, they play RF with Wallner moving to 1B or DH, or Maritn slides to the 4th OF spot. I hope Martin's last 100 ABs are real. If they are, Martin is next year's leadoff hitter with Buxton 2, and Keashall 3 in the everyday lineup. If Wallner could just hit .240 plus and strike out 25-28% of the time (or less), now you have a LH #4 hitter to break up the righties and you can find a 5 and 6 hitter between Jeffers, Lewis, and a DH or 1B. Lee hits 8 and whoever is left hits 7 and 9. That lineup steals a lot of bases and moves to at least the middle of the pack in runs scored, which is a major improvement from this year. Add in a solid to very good starting rotation and you have a .500 team or slightly better team. You then have to find a solid bullpen and that is a long way from this bunch we have now. No question that's a lot of IFs to contending next year but half the fun of being a sports fan is imagining how those IFs can come together for your team. It's a lot easier to imagine when you have Lopez and Ryan to lead the rotation. I really hope that's the case in 2026.

At least they finally released Kriske and called up Ohl. Hatch started off well and it has just fallen off a cliff. I completely agree with you. I don’t see any reason to keep running the same losers out there. Use this month to try out new guys you’re unsure about like Fedko, Baker, and Lawyerson.

I have to admit I am cooling on Topa in the bullpen after these latest games. I also don't see Funderburk as a closer; I see him more as a middle to late inning guy whose leverage level depends on the number of LH hitters he would face. We need a closer from somewhere. I like Festa there and could see Sands in the role. It will be difficult and probably expensive to get one from outside so I think we need an internal option to step up into that role.

I've been wondering why Fedko isn't getting a callup to see where he is and FlyingFinn may have supplied the answer. I guess if we don't call him up and thus don't put him on the 40 man we have a chance of getting him by the Rule 5 draft. Still, I think that he should get a shot at being part of a 1B combination next season unless we sign a FA to play 1B. There ain't a lot out there other than Naylor and he may be out of our price range.

Guys, the starter who can survive pitching without high velocity these days is a rare bird indeed. Comparing velocity to the 70s, 80s, and 90s is a fool's errand; the average pitcher in that era would get eaten alive by today's better hitters. The Twins (and all other teams) aren't saying have high velocity and we don't care about command. You have to have both. In the 70s, an 88-90 MPH fastball and good command could get you a long MLB career. In the 2020s, that gets you a AAAA label at best. Look at Ober. At 92 MPH with elite command, he's an MLB mid rotation stater - barely. At 90 MPH he's got a 5.40 ERA and is in danger of losing his job if this continues in 2026. Today's hitters see 90 MPH fastballs as glorified batting practice. They are just better than they were 10-15 years ago, much less 30-50 years ago. David Festa at low 90s with his stuff probably never gets out of the minors. By getting more velocity, he has had a chance in the Majors and will get more chances. You guys are right, the higher velocity puts a much heavier strain on the arm, elbow and shoulder. It also gives guys a chance they otherwise wouldn't have. Festa's body may not be able to handle the higher velocity for 100 pitches. Most guys can't. The solution for him isn't to throw slower. He'll get killed. The solution may be to put him in the bullpen so he can throw at high velocity in 20-30 pitch stints, instead of 100 pitch stints. I see Festa as a high leverage bullpen arm for the same reasons Duran went to the bullpen.

I like the thoughts DocBauer. I tend to agree that Prielipp should be given more rope as a starter first before moving to the bullpen. Where I realy agree is that some of these guys should be tried in the MLB bullpen now, given that the rest of the is year's games don't really matter AND that a lot of the guys we now have in the Twins bullpen STINK and won't be around next year. Adams is already up, give him some high leverage shots. Get Ohl back up as a 1-2 inning guy. I'd like to see Lawyerson, Baker and/or MacLeod up in the bullpen. Any 40 man issues are simple to solve - release or waive Cabrera, Davis, and/or Kriske. Davis is an easy release candidate for sure. He has an 18.90 ERA and was just as bad in Colorado, with a 9.54 ERA in 61 MLB innings - how much more do we need to see to know he's isn't an MLB pitcher? Let's make these moves now to see for 2026. By the way, making the moves now might have the added advantage of helping the attitude of the current club so they can see at least the team is trying to get better now and for next year. They can't watch bullpen melt downs like the last 3 days for long before they all simply give up.

I think it's important to recognize that ballplayers have very short careers. The median MLB career length is 2.7 to 3.5 years, according to AI, with the average longer but skewed by a small subset of players that have very long careers so the median is the better measure. That's the MLB v career length, it doesn't include the 95% of ballplayers who try but never make the majors. Add to that the fact that Lewis has had two career altering and perhaps career threatening injuries and I can understand his concerns. It's not like he's guaranteed to make 750K plus for 5 years and then millions. He might make 750K plus for a couple of years, then be wandering the landscape looking for one year MLB or even less lucrative MiLB deals, or even out of baseball with no other skills to fall back on. These guys aren't set for life unless and until they get a long term guaranteed contract and most if not almost all of them never get that. Most of them don't have other skills to make a living. I also don't understand the complaining about his bonus amount or what he makes compared to the "average guy". Lewis makes more money that the average guy because his services create more wealth than the average guy. We are a capitalist society. He who creates more economic activity and wealth is worth more to our society. He does something none of us can do. Pro athletes make more money than most everybody else because they provide more economic value than most everybody else. In other words, they make more because they are worth more in economic terms. Lewis has one shot at real wealth from his unique talent over the next few years. It's understandable that he's worried about that. Having said all this, Lewis needs to keep those concerns to himself. He comes across kind of like the rich guy who complains about this taxes. Very few have sympathy for that guy.

I agree that things have changed in the sense that teams put guys in relief at the MiLB level intending to develop them into MLB bullpen pieces. I think the old days of only failed starters in the bullpen are gone. hey, we need basically 4-6 new bullpen pieces next year, and that's assuming Topa and Sands are two of the 8. Everyone else is now on a tryout with Funderburk looking like he could be part of the solution. I thought Hatch might be but he stunk last night. Still, he's had 4 very good appearances since coming over and 2 pretty bad ones so there may be something there. The rest? Adams might be something but the sooner we move away from Davis, Kriske, and Cabrera, the better off we will be. I'd move away immediately if not sooner from those 3 - release them and bring up Ohl, Baker, and Lawyerson. Tonkin is fine for now but he's already 35, has never been very good, and is on the downward slope. He probably isn't part of the 2026 solution. Let's see if the other guys are.

We may get the chance to see how these guys perform at the MLB level sooner than we anticipate given that we will need at least 1 or 2 in the bullpen next year. I agree that Raya's highest and best use may be as a bullpen arm, same for Adams and Morris. I also wonder if Festa's recurring shoulder issues presage a switch to the bullpen ala' Duran. Finally, SWR can't seem to go more than 5 innings and is usually better suited to 4 or less so it does make one wonder if he isn't better suited to a 2 inning at a time kind of bullpen role. i hope they use the offseason and ST to sort this out. I'm glad the brought up Adams, let's see if he can be a BP weapon. We need at least 2 of the MiLB "starters" in the bullpen for next year and 3 would be better. Let's try to find them now.

I hear you on the transition but I would make Festa the closer and also move SWR to the pen. The main reason is Festa's shoulder issues make me think he isn't physically cut out to throw 150 innings a year, much like Duran and Stewart both weren't. Festa has the strikeout stuff to close if he has the mental toughness. SWR reminds me a little of Jax, although SWR is a better starter than Jax ever was. Both have some good pitches but neither has the stuff to go around the lineup 3 times, something a starter has to be able to do. I'd like to see both Festa and SWR in the pen next year in important roles. Matthews and Bradley are in spots 4 and 5 in the rotation, with Hatch and SWR in the BP available to spot start or join in in case of injury. AAA rotation is a combination of Abel, Rojas, Klein, Raya, Prielipp, Andrew Morris, plus CJ Culpeper up from AA. Gives us the 5 starters plus 9 deep in realistic reserve. BTW, I'm also concerned about whether Ober will be ok as a starter next year. Hopefully this year is the result of an injury and he'll be back to his old solid #3/#4 starter self in 2026. Still, he always had marginal stuff and he's now had his ERA go up 4 years in a row, Add to that, he's already 30. I hope I'm wrong but it wouldn't surprise me to see him continue to decline. He may be the right guy to trade although I wonder if he has much value any more beyond a 40-45FV prospect.

Very uninspiring except for Adams. Don't really get it unless the idea is to give Davis and Keirsey one last shot before sending them packing this winter.

I’d love to see them make a couple moves to help with some of our problematic positions next year. Bring up Fedko and have him play first in a combination with Clemens. See if that’s a functional situation for next year. I would also like to see them bring up Noah Cardenas to catch. Please God, let’s not have Mickey Gasper as a 30-year-old backup catcher who has an OPS south of .600 next year. We are going to need a catcher pretty soon with Jeffer’s contract situation so let’s find out now if Cardenas can be part of the solution. On the pitching side, we don’t have to limit ourselves to the extra spot since we’ve got some serious chaff in the bullpen. Lopez takes Abel’s spot. Release Cabrera and/or Kriske and bring up some combination of Prielipp, Adams, Baker or Raya. Think hard about moving SWR to the bullpen when Pablo comes back and leave Taj in the rotation. I personally advocate making Festa a relief pitcher given his shoulder issues. I think he could be next year’s closer. Bottom line, let’s use this time wisely to see what we have in positions of need for next year. Find out if you have anyone internally to play 1B and a pitch out of the bullpen. Play Martin in left field and Keaschall at second base pretty much every day and see if they can handle the positions. I’m with the last poster, losing 88 games or 93 games is irrelevant. Let’s see what we got.

I’m always hopeful they trade neither starting pitcher. They should have some financial flexibility since the new limited partners money will remove the cash flow drag from debt service. I personally do not subscribe to the theory that all of this is just going to be a cash dump because of the upcoming CBA negotiations, but I could very easily be proven wrong. I would say that say that Larnach and Jeffers are the two likely trade candidates. Larnach is redundant, there are AAA outfielders who could replace him, and he’s getting expensive. I think the only way he stays is if he moves to 1B and the Twins to decide to stay with Keaschall as the 2B instead of moving him to 1B. I think they would love to keep Jeffers but will not be able to resign him because Boros clients like to go to free agency. The fact he only has one year before free agency though limits the market unless an aquiring team can both sign him and sign him to a longer-term contract. I suspect he will be on the team at the beginning and traded at the deadline unless the twins are in serious contention. At the end of the day, I think the big trade in the off-season is Larnach with Jeffers being traded if they can get some kind of a catcher back in either a three-way deal or in another deal.

This is really good to hear. I’m really glad to see that the organization is taking a good right handed hitting outfielder that doesn’t really have a path to the majors and playing him somewhere where he could actually add value. I would love to see Fedko get some run in September and I’d love to see him get a chance to compete for the 1B job in spring training. Wow, moving guys positions in the minors to try to make them more valuable and stealing a lot of bases in the same week? Aliens replaced the front office? Look, I love me some Luis Arraez, but he’s not what we need other than as Maybe a one year stop gap. He could be an interesting platoon partner/bench bat, but that’s about it at this point.

This is the trade-off. Now, players in their first 6 years make relatively small salaries (for a pro athlete, not a regular human) and then some explode ,some get more modest raises, and some get to work at a used car lot. With a floor, arb and pre-arb players are likely to make more money unless you have a one star team where that guy gets 50% of the floor. The losers in a salary cap league are not the lower paid players, it's the highly paid players. A highly paid player has to take a little less so that better mid level players can be signed to make the team competitive - see Tom Brady in the NFL and Tim Duncan in the NBA, as compared to a Kobe whose unwillingness to reduce salary in his last years was one of the factors making the Lakers uncompetitive. The other losers are the agents who represent the top tier because their % is worth less and they can't compete by making every big contract bigger than the last one. And that my friends, is why Bryce Harper goes off on Rob Manfred about a salary cap. He is protecting Bryce Harper's wallet and Philly's ability to sign other guys with big contracts and still pay him $30m a year. I have no problem with that, but let's not think he's a white knight protecting players as a whole. It's the multi millionaires vs. the billionaires. Hard to get excited about picking a winner there, so I go with what I think will make the sport more fun. To me, that's a more competitive situation with more parity like the NBA and NFL. And what do they have that MLB doesn't have (other than much smarter owners)? A salary cap and floor.

I'd be with you if there were equalized revenues, but they're aren't. I live in LA. It's great that the Dodgers effectively have no spending limit because if their huge TV revenue and the fact they draw 50,000 plus fans a night at prices higher than most of the league. To the Dodgers, that luxury tax payment is simply a cost of doing business that does not meaningfully enter into the calculus of whether or not to acquire a particular player. Now arguably the Dodgers are also consistently good because they have the best farm system and organization, but we can't deny that the financial advantages give them a major leg up. That's also true to a lesser extent for the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox, Astros, and should be true for the White Sox but they are run by morons. I think a salary cap with a hard floor plus "Bird rights" like in the NBA could work. In other words, everyone has the same amount to spend, except that you can exceed the cap without penalty to sign a player that you've developed. There would have to be some guardrails to avoid gamesmanship. The amount of the cap is tied to all MLB related revenues, including local TV money and you have to have better sharing of that local TV money. By doing that, you raise the cap available to play the players outside of the big markets. This could be a little tough for the players at the top end although the salaries in the NFL and NAS suggest that the best players will be seriously paid. Could be better for the players at the bottom by raising the basic payrolls of the Miamis, etc. This doesn't solve all the financial problems because a cap number and the cash spend can be very different depending on bonuses, guarantees, etc. just like in the NFL and NBA, but it would really help level the playing field IMHO. To me, that's the whole point.. You want to level the playing field so there is a more exciting product that raises overall media rights revenue, improves overall attendance, and raises fan engagement. I'm sure this idea has many holes but Baseball has a problem and this might help fix it.

Agreed. By the way, I was just informed that 2026 is Rodriguez's last option year. If that's true, I think he has to be on the opening day roster or up soon thereafter if he isn't hurt again. That probably leaves Emma and Martin as the 4th and 5th OFs if Jenkins is on the team unless Wallner moves to 1B. There is then no room at the Inn for the likes of Outman, Roden, Fedko, etc. , and really no room for Larnach unless he moves to 1B. Should be interesting in the OF - do you stay with guys like Larnach, Wallner, and Martin, do you make the move and roll with guys like Jenkins, Emma and Roden, or do you do some kind of combination? I know what I'd do (trade/non-tender Larnach and Outman, and keep Martin and Emma with the rest at AAA), but what do I know, Should be interesting to watch. .

I agree that he can be a good starter and a dangerous hitter. Who knows where his ceiling can be? He could be a .260/.370/.520 hitter with 35+ HRs and a 25% SO rate. Not likely, but within the realm of possibility. Not to parse words, but that kind of production would make him a star, at least for this team. There are people here and apparently on social media that think he should be traded or released, Now that may have been sad in the heat of the moment, but that's really where my opposition lies, To me, that would be a real mistake.

Interesting analysis. It does tend to go with the eye test of watching Wallner consistently be unable to handle the high strike fastball in critical situations. The elite pitchers have that pitch and can throw it for strikes at 96+ MPH; the average or lesser pitchers do not and cannot. Funny thing is, you can correlate this to his more prosaic, easy to follow stats - pitchers found this flaw this year and he's hitting .215, up from the .200 he was at instead of the .259 he hit last year. He hits .240-.260 he's a middle of the order bat; at .200-.230 he's a part time DH hitting 7th. I will say though that his stats against LH pitching are markedly improved this year so he may be able to play every day. Now I get to the part where I part company with both the "Wallner is the next star" and "Wallner is Joey Gallo, trade him while we still can" crowds. The swing flaw is fixable and the guy has had only 765 MLB ABs. We can also hope that any nerves or similar issue will improve over time, Trading or releasing Wallner, as some would have us do, makes no sense to me. His trade value is in the prospects range, not in the valuable MLB piece range. If release him, he will get snapped up by a bottom feeder team, hit 35 HRs a year for a loser, and be in the All Star game - think Brent Rooker - and we will get nothing for an asset that has some value. Conversely, he's not a middle of the order bat now and may never become one. In fact, he may be Dave Kingman. We know that the continuum ranges from srikeout prone low leverage only slugger to All Star. We just don't know where he will land. I think the next month plus the 2026 season will tell the tale on Wallner. I'm frankly optimistic that he can become a lineup asset in spots 4-6 but then I'm an optimist by nature. He'll never be a defensive asset but he can be average(ish) in RF or at least not a negative and maybe can play 1B. I'd like to se them try him at 1B with our OF MiLB depth. By the way guys, thanks for this series. I found it very interesting. I'd love to see a similar analysis on Lee and Lewis, who I think are the keys to whether this can be a short rebuild along with Wallner and Keaschall. Let's be real, if those 4 plus Buxton aren't above average or better, we're screwed no matter how good the pitching is unless someone else comes us as Keaschall and comes up soon. Maybe Jenkins? Besides, this season is a complete disaster. This gives us something positive to talk about with this sad sack franchise.

I don't have any more information than what I read but I will say that this article makes some sense on two levels. The franchise would be worth more if there was cost certainty through a hard salary cap and revenue enhancement through increased TV revenue and more revenue sharing. What doesn't ring true is the idea that the 2 new "limited partners" don't have a defined path to ownership. A right of first refusal is the next best thing when there's disagreement on value, though. That's a method used when the two parties want to buy and sell but just can't agree on valuation. It wouldn't shock me if here the Pohlads wanted an effective 2.1B valuation (1.7B plus 400M of debt assumption) and the buyers were 100-300M below that number. The Pohlads get a defined amount of time to find another buyer willing to pay more and the buyers have a right to match. If the Pohlads can't find anyone within a defined time, the buyers initial offer becomes the sale price, sometimes at a slight discount to convince the buyers to stay in the game. The key is that the time within which to find a new buyer is defined, not open ended. It would make some sense that the end date is tied to the negotiations for a new CBA since that could really effect the valuation. We also shouldn't discount the impact of interest rates. This is a financed deal. I don't want to get into politics, so I'll just say that the future path of interest rates is at best unclear. We don't know where the economy or the Fed is going and the possibilities range from recession to expansion to stagflation with one able to use the economic indicators to construct any plausible scenario in between. There is a high amount of non-economic pressure that could influence interest rate policy in either direction. The legal issues are beyond complex and could also impact what happens. It frankly might be a better deal for a buyer to pay more in a year or 18 moths but finance the price at a 1-2% lower interest rate. It's all just math leading to a number on a page.

I agree that Wallner tends to be undervalued. Having said that, hitting around .200 tends to get one moved down in the order. He's now up to .215 with a .321 OPS and has been moved back up since the fire sale. He's also batting .235/.361/.602 in his last 30 games (98 ABs). I will note he's also hitting .222/.319/.460 (.779) against LH pitching for the year, up from a .665 OPS against lefties in 2024. He's better than most of the swing and miss profiles from the past, and he's definitely a better hitter than Larnach. Wallner can be an important piece going forward. Whether that will be as a guy hitting in middle of the order or in the 6/7/8 holes depends almost entirely on his batting average and, by extension, his OBP. If he can hit .240-.260 with an OBP above .350 while keeping his SO rate under 30% and without sacrificing power (he hit .259/.372/523 last year in 220 ABs (SSS)), he can be that #4 hitter we really need hitting behind Keaschall. I'd love to see him moved to 1B but I did hear the other poster who says he has the agility of Lurch from the Addams Family. He ain't wrong.

Cardenas makes the most sense to me for the extra spot, assuming one will go t a position player and 1 to a pitcher. I would like to see Fedko and Gonzalez get a shot but I just don't see it happening. As an earlier poster pointed out, the guys you might send down are the same guys you have to evaluate for 2026 (Julien, Outman, Martin). Question, I think that any call up, even September call ups, have to be on the 40 man roster. Is that true? If so, another barrier to someone like Cardenas, Fedko or Gaonzalez, although there's lots of chaff on our 40 man to dump.