LA Vikes Fan

I think you're probably right here. Varland comes up as the 27th man who pitches the second game Friday. He then goes back to St. Paul. SWR goes Saturday, Festa Sunday, Lopez Monday. Ober goes Wednesday so that leaves Tuesday to cover. Too soon to bring Varland back so I think they probably go with either Winder or Dobank as an opener in a bullpen game. The other wildcard here is when they bring up Topa. You have to think that either Dobnak or Winder goes back to AAA to make room unless they decide to put Ryan on the IL. Based on the incredibly small sample size so far, the obvious choice to go back down is Dobnak. My guess is they bring Topa up for the Cleveland series so my guess is that Ryan goes on the IL today or tomorrow for Topa and one of those two will be the opener next Tuesday. They're also going to have to make room for Okert soon. He has to come back from the bereavement list after seven days, which I think might be Tuesday the 13th but hopefully is Wednesday the 14th. Topa up today or tomorrow, then Okert for Winder or Dobnak next Tuesday or Wednesday, hopefully on Wednesday the 14th after Winder starts on the 13th. and then Varland up for whichever one of Winder or Dobnak is still on the roster so he can start next Friday the 16th. The other potential wildcard is whether there's a waiver claim or recently released guy they can pick up to start Tuesday. That would probably mean a DFA of Dobnak, since no one will pick up his contract and he can then be reassigned to AAA. Fun times.

Yeah, if he could play a good CF he's be really valuable. As a part time LF, though, his lack of any power makes him pretty average. I would love to see the Twins send him to a Winter league and do nothing but play CF all winter, or at least train for the position the whole off season. That way he can be the RH hitting 4th OF we need and we don't have to have Margot or his equivalent on the roster next year.

The rotation is good for 3 days, then we're happy if we get 4 or 5 strong innings from SWR and Festa. You're right, that puts a heavy strain on the bullpen. I was hoping Dobnak would be the answer in a long relief role, but that ain't happening. I'm hoping that Varland is the 27th man Friday, starts the second game, and shows that he can be effective for at least two or three innings. Thereafter, I think we have to try to use the bullpen in such a way that Sands and Varland are available for 2 to 3 inning stints as piggybacks to SWR and Festa for the rest of the way. We can get Varland on the 26 man by sending down Dobnak. I'm a little less worried about the lineup. I think were overlooking how good Miranda has been and continues to be, plus Santana has really provided a good bat for the 6 or 7 hole. Margot has been better than I expected the last two months and I'm still hopeful that Kepler will find his power stroke again. I think the lineup will be fine once we get Correa back. The key is getting that rotation to be good enough and I think the key to that is getting a piggy back in place for both SWR and Festa. That and no injuries. An injury to one of the top 3 starters could be catastrophic.

I don't think we need to go that route since we have an off day Thursday. So, going on normal rest, the rotation for Cleveland could be Ober first game Friday, SWR or a 27th man in the second game, skip Festa, Lopez Saturday, Ryan Sunday. That does catch up with us against KC though on Mon-Weds 8/12 -14, where it would have to be Festa, SWR, and Ober. I suspect that Varland comes up as the 27th man for the second game Friday, SWR pitches Saturday, then Lopez Sunday, followed by Ryan, Festa, and Ober, Mon-Weds. against KC.

I think Martin is showing himself to be more of a short term asset at the MLB level than is Lee. I think Lee goes back to AAA when Correa is ready although that could reverse if Lee has a good week. He will be playing SS until Correa is back. Dobnak is a fun story but he just doesn't throw enough strikes to be very effective. He's back in St. Paul as soon as Topa is ready or if they make a move with Varland. I expect Varland up as the 27th man for the doubleheader Friday starting game 2 as a tryout. He ahs the chance to stay up if he pitches well, accommodated by a SWR 10 day IL stint for shoulder fatigue or a demotion of Dobnak. Any more news on when Correa will be back? I did read that he progressed to jogging at Target Field and took a full batting practice session. The only steps left are being able to sprint and a rehab game or two in St. Paul. Correa is hardly a speed burner anyway, I'm not sure the sprinting is all that critical. If he can hit, he's worth playing even if he can only run at 80 or 90%. I'm hoping that he'll be back in St. Paul this week, DH on Tuesday, SS on Wednesday, DH on Thursday, and back with the team on Friday for the Cleveland series.

Varland should be the 27th man on Friday, starting the second game of the doubleheader. Let's see him in a starting role before making a final decision. We are going to need at least one more starter this year even if Lopez, Ober, and Ryan stay healthy. SWR seems to be hitting a wall, Paddack's return date is unknown, and Festa is a complete crapshoot. Dobnak hasn't looked great since his return and I shudder at the thought that he might get a start. Varland looks like the best bet right now since Zebby is hardly dominating AAA. I could easily see Varland getting 3-4 starts through the rest of August into mid-September. He can then transition into the Bullpen my mid- September because we should only need 3-4 starters in the playoffs. We can and should try for the best of both worlds with him.

Agreed. I also think he's been more situational in the field - going all out and taking risk in late and close situations, while being a little more cautious in more routine situations. That may just be maturity and it may be Correa's influence because that's what he does. Hopefully Correa can teach Lewis the same skill, particularly when running the bases. I would expect to see Buxton back to his more "all out, all the time" self if this team makes the playoffs. It's all good. Buxton should hit 100 games and may hit 120. Can't argue with that.

We'll see if Ober can get beyond KD when he starts against them the week of the 12th.

Wow. As someone who remembers all three players you mentioned, that is ugly.

They will get nothing and like it.

It's understandable that they shield Wallner from LH pitching. Here's his slash lines the last 3 years - 2024 (9 ABs, .111/.200/.111), 2023 (42 ABs, .119/.196/.286), 2022 (17 ABs, .118/.167/.176). Admittedly a small sample size but pretty abysmal. I still think that they need to find out if he can improve against LH pitching. The only way to find out is consistent ABs. Maybe hit him 8th for now until he can ramp up. The problem is for whom? Margot is hitting lefties well and we want Miranda, Lewis, and Santana in the lineup. The obvious answers are either a combination of rest days for those 3 and displacing Kepler, or limiting Margot. The second one ain't going to happen so it's really a choice of who do you want sitting against LH pitching - Lewis, Miranda, Santana, Margot, Kepler, Wallner. Has to be one of them. Hard to blame Rocco for sitting Wallner - he is the obvious choice.

I'm not sure I agree with this, Larnach is actually pretty athletic and not a bad OF. Wallner lumbers a bit but has a strong arm, should be a solid RF. Martin has the athletic ability to be a superior OF. I think he just needs the reps out there. And that's without counting Castro who's actually a pretty good OF and has some real speed. He's an OF/UTL next year - Lee is going to take over at 2B. Actually our worst defensive OF is Margot and he won't be with the team next year. None of those guys is as good as Kepler, but all are better than Margot, and Larnach, Castro, and Wallner all hit better than Kepler. I think our OF defense will be as good next year as it is this year IF Buxton stays healthy and could be better if Martin improves and/or we get a glove first 4th OF. I do agree that trading Larnach might have been a good thing if there was a market. He and Wallner have pretty redundant skillsets and Wallner looks like he has a higher hitting upside. We got Martin after the top 100 luster had worn off so trading him wasn't a great option. He's worth more to us than to anyone else. Good thing SWR is working out. That trade for Berrios is actually looking pretty even or maybe even in the Twins favor.

Thanks.

Does anyone have accurate stats on his K rate pre and post demotion? I did a quick calculation based on the stats I saw and saw 17ks in 29 PAs (58.6%) before demotion, and 19 SOs in 49PAs (38.7%) since his recall. The post recall % is still too high but at least it's better. The key with Wallner is whether he can get his K rate down to 25-28% and still hit .250 plus with the same power. The jury is still very much out on that. We should play him basically every day, including against LH pitching, for the rest of the season. Let's see if he can be a full time #4 or #5 hitter going forward hitting after Lewis. You can't find that out unless you give it a long term try.

I think there's a bit of a difference between starting and relief opportunities. If you actually look at the deadline moves there really wasn't much quality starting pitching moved outside of Fedde, Flaherty, and Kikuchi. I absolutely would not trade Lee, Jenkins, or Emma for any of those three. I'm even a little surprised that Keaschall was dangled but Fedde does have another year so I guess I can of see it. Can't see anything even in our top 10 prospects for Trevor Rogers. When you look at the returns these teams got, I understand why the FO was hesitant to match. On the relief side, the prices for Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez were astronomical for a reliever. No way do we pay that. We could and should have tried to get Luis Garcia, Gregory Soto, or even Ryan Yarborough. They we available at much better prospect prices and all would help. To me, the bottom line is where you think the team is in terms of competing for a WS spot. If we're close and 1 or 2 guys can get us there, you go for it and overpay, and worry about the fallout later. If not, you only do something that makes long term sense. I don't think this team is 1 or 2 guys away. I think we're at least 3 or 4 in the form of a strong middle of the order 3-5 bat to go with Correa hitting 2 and Buxton 6, a #2 type starter, a LH late inning reliever, and a solid RH hitting OF to platoon with Larnach. It's possible that Ober will become a true #2 next season, moving the need down to a #4 (much easier to find). It's possible that Mirnada/Lewis/Wallner will become a strong 3-5 hitting group, or that Emma, Lee, or even Jenkins can fill that role soon, and that Martin can become a solid RH OF platoon option. We don't have the LH reliever in the system. I still think this team is one year away because I think those things can only happen with experience and MLB ABs, including playing Wallner against LH pitching. That's the way to play it this year. If it looks like those things can work, then overpay for a high end LH reliever over the winter.

The Twins can make waiver claims if they take on the salary of the player. They can also sign free agents. Any player DFA'd with 5 years or more in the majors can elect free agency, get their contract paid by the waiving club, and sign with another club. The signing club is only on the hook for the prorated remainder of the 740k minimum salary. Opportunities tend to rise into circumstances. One is where the player has a relatively high salary, his team waives him hoping someone will pick up the contract for salary relief and, if no one makes a claim, the player is either released or elect free agency. Classic example is Rafael Montero being released by the Astros. The second is where a team either winds up with too many pitchers for their 40 man or 26 man roster's after making trades or takes on the contract of someone they can't fit on the roster to facilitate a trade with a team that wants to unload that pitcher's salary, and then has to waive that player who becomes available. Two examples here are Vinnie Nattoli just elected free agency after being DFA'd by the Orioles, and Ryan Yarborough, who the Dodgers just got in a trade and then DFA'd, who will also probably elect free agency. Both Vinnie Nattoli and Ryan Yarborough are pitchers the Twins should take a look at. Both will be very cheap at the prorated amount of the league minimum and both could help.

Hey, Vinny Nittoli just elected free agency after a DFA by the Orioles. He's 0-1, 1.5 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 12 innings, 9 games. Can go 2 innings a pop and has the last 3 times out against Miami, KC, and the Yankees - 6 IP total, 1 earned run. Came off the IL about 3 weeks ago. He's RH but has better stats against lefties (.188 BA). He could be a find if this is anywhere near real. Also, Jake Diekman (LH) and Adrian Houser (RH) have been waived/released by the Mets. Both pretty meh to meh minus this year but both have previous good previous track records. The bullpen is the one place where you can get actual decent pieces on the waiver wire or post DFA free agency. Nittoli is worth a look. Probably an upgrade on Okert and maybe on Dobnak. Worth looking at the waiver wire as a way to upgrade the BP.

Has to happen. Couldn't agree more. Move him to the BP and get him up to Minnesota.

Lee is killing us on offense and bad luck puts him up with men on base a lot. We've seen enough now to know that he isn't offensively ready for the MLB level. No shame there, lots of guys need multiple shots to stick. Lee should and probably will go down to AAA when Correa is ready to come back. I hear that's most likely this weekend but haven't seen anything official.

Was curious about the schedule so I went to Tankathon. com where they track ease off remaining schedule by your opponents winning percentage. They show the Twins with the 16th hardest remaining schedule in baseball, seventh hardest in the American League. By comparison, here's the remaining scehdule strength for our likely competitors, with the opponents' winning % in parentheses: Kansas City (.521) - 2nd hardest schedule in baseball, 2nd hardest in the American League. Cleveland (.520) - 3rd hardest schedule in baseball, 3rd hardest in the American League. Boston (.507) - 10th hardest schedule in baseball, 4th hardest in the American League. Houston (.503) - 15th hardest schedule in baseball, 6th hardest in the American League. Minnesota (.503) - 16th hardest schedule in baseball, 7th hardest in the American League. Seattle (.502) - 18th hardest schedule in baseball, 8th hardest in the American League. Baltimore (.498) - 20th hardest schedule in baseball, 10th hardest in the American League. Yankees (.479) - 27th hardest schedule in baseball, 12th hardest in the American League. See, not all the news is bad this morning. You got to figure that Baltimore and the Yankees are pretty close to locks since both upgraded at the deadline, both have relatively easy schedules, both have good records already, and both play two teams that are now tanking the season as part of their divisional games at the end, Toronto and Tampa Bay. That leaves the Twins with the division race and, assuming Cleveland went to the division, the race for the final two wildcard spots with Kansas City, Boston, and either Houston or Seattle which ever one doesn't win the West. We have a pretty significant schedule advantage against Kansas City and Cleveland, a slight advantage against Boston, and basically the same strength of schedule as Houston and Seattle. Not bad, not bad at all.

You're right, the rule was changed. All players DFA'd must be placed on outright or relaese waivers. These players can be claimed with the claiming team picking up the contract. The player can be assigned to AAA if they pass through waivers, but any player with more than 5 years of MLB service time can reject that assignment, become a free agent, and sign with any team. That player forfeits their existing contract and is paid whatever the new team negotiates. Those two players above both have more than 5 years of service time so they could be signed as free agents or picked up on waivers. I'll revise the post. Good catch, thanks.

Well said. For all of the Sturm und Drang one reads here regarding the front office and management, I think the record shows that Falvey and Levine have done a very good job upgrading and updating the organization. I also think that Baldelli has done a very good job as manager, although he is a little too reliant on probabilities. I think all three of them would have little difficulty finding similar positions with other organizations, particularly midmarket or smaller market teams. It may be that they wouldn't move unless called by a bigger market organization but I don't think they would have any trouble finding another position. The clear problem is ownership. We can talk about how the Twins do as a business and all that is interesting, but to me it's ultimately irrelevant. I'm a fan, not a stock analyst or business valuation expert. I want my sports teams to be owned by someone was willing to spend the money to play with the big boys and give their team a chance to be successful on the field. The Vikings have that kind of ownership. I live in LA and I can tell you that all of the teams here have that kind of ownership (now even the Chargers) and would be toast in the marketplace if they didn't. The Twins deserve that and I just don't think they have it. I was hopeful the new guy in charge would be more competitive and more willing to invest but it sure doesn't look like it.

This. Richard improves the bullpen simply because he's better than Staumont, better than the guys we currently have at AAA, and may be better than Okert. We didn't trade a player who appears to have much of a future to get him. Richard is now the number seven man in an eight-man bullpen, ahead of Okert (#8) but behind Dobnak. To the extent one considers that an "upgrade", that's pretty much it. Any bullpen improvement is going to have to come from a combination of Topa, Varland, and our old friend Randy Dobnak. I know we have to keep Varland stretched out as a starter for depth for the next month but after that he should be up in Minnesota in the bullpen. The interesting part is going to be who goes to create space for Topa and eventually Varland over the next few weeks. Given the prices paid for Trevor Rogers and Kikuchi, I guess I'm okay with us not trading for a starting pitcher. The Dodgers got a good deal for Flaherty although it is a little concerning that the Yankees had a deal in place for him with Detroit and backed out after looking at his medical records. I'm not a fan of trading for a backend innings eater type like Cal Quantrill. I'd rather play the long game with the #4 and #5 spots and give those starts to a combination of SWR, Festa, and Paddack, with maybe even two or three starts to Zebby Matthews thrown in now that we have a long reliever in Dobnak to use as a piggyback. Now that the dust has settled, I guess I'm both disappointed and relieved. I'm disappointed we didn't make a higher profile move for a better reliever and I think we could have done that if we had been willing to sacrifice some better prospects. Having said that, I do think this roster is really one year away from being a true contender so I wouldn't want to sacrifice much of the future for that reliever. Overall, I can live with this.

At this moment, I would say Ober yes, Ryan.... maybe. IF the playoffs started today i would pitch Lopez, then Ober, then Ryan. Hopefully, we'll be playing in October, both these guys and Lopez will be healthy, and we'll get a chancel out see.

This Deadline was a hard one. Lots of teams overpaid for decent but not great pitching. Really, only the Dodgers made a reasonable deal on Flaherty, Yet this Twins team seems like its good enough that one capable starter and one capable reliever could make the difference. I'm normally not a big fan of the usual Deadline overpays but this year I would have gone for it and moved a guy or two off the top 10 for a top tier starter like Flaherty or even a couple from the top 20 for Trevor Richards or Kikuchi. Just because that window isn't often open and this year feels like it might be …. Or that breeze I feel is just my own hot air blowing back on my Face . . .