LA Vikes Fan

Don't move Polanco. He was the Twins' best player last year and probably will be again this year unless Buxton plays 125 games or more. There are quite a few SS out there to pick up as a 1-2 year stopgap while we see if Lewis or Martin (or maybe even Polacios) can handle the position. Galvis, Iglesias, Simmons, all available. Hey, Adrianza is a free agent. What do you think about him as an everyday SS or as part time guy in combination with Nick Gordon? Not sure if he's a fit, but my point is that we can get competent SS play without messing with Polanco at 2B. Arraez can get 450-550 ABs playing 3B for the 80 games Donaldson is the DH, DHing himself, playing LF, or playing RF after we trade Kepler. Let's not worry so much about giving him a permanent position. His glove is at best average everywhere (except maybe at 3B where it seems pretty good), and his leg issues don't project him as a 135 plus games in the field type guy. I do agree that the value of the glove first SS has lessened quite a bit over the last few years. That's why I would keep Lewis and Martin there in the minors going forward. They're alleged defensive averageness, if that's a word, may be less and less important as time goes on.

Manaea would be great to get, but ONLY if he can be signed to at least a 2-3 year type deal past 2022. Otherwise, the cost is way too much for a one year mid rotation rental for a team that is unlikely to be a true contender next year. I'd rather pay more in prospects/players if we need to and get Montas, Bassitt, or one of the controllable starters from Miami. I think a good scenario for next year is to turn over the roster a bit, get younger, and be an up and coming team in 2022 who we hope makes the playoffs but isn't a WS contender on their way to true contention in 2022-2025. That means only getting youngerish pitchers with at least 2-3 year contracts or control, and being willing to trade Sano, Kepler, Garver, and Donaldson. Oh yeah, by the way, and SIGNING BUXTON to a longer term deal. I agree that we may be seeing the FO strategy in the Twins' lack of involvement on free agent pitching to date. It looks like either (1) the team is going to try to get pitching in trades and maybe signs a #3/4 type as a FA, or (2) we are going to add Pineda and maybe one other Pineda type and then roll with our own young guys in 2022. I hope it's number 1 but we may be looking at number 2, so to speak.

Excellent idea. I didn’t realize he was that good with the glove. If you’re right and he can field at an above average big league SS level, he is now my first choice. Like you, I think the Twins need to spend all of their money on pitching and sign a one year stopgap shortstop. I like Goodrum much better than Jose Iglesias, who stunk for the Angels last year, Freddie Galvis, wants to go to Philadelphia, and Simmons, who cant hit and just a little too weird for my liking.

Excellent point and one I couldn't really address with my limited knowledge. My thinking is that once the FO decides how many spots they need for free agents, that the next players sent packing are Thorpe, Stashak, Garza, and Smeltzer. Each without a corresponding add so the spots stay open. I think Cave and Astudillo are already all but gone. No one should be surprised when they are DFA'd in the next few weeks. The shock would be if either one is retained on the 40 man roster. Keeping either one on the 40 man would be a very bad decision.

Can someone tell me if I'm doing this right? I went to twinsbaseball.com and they show 38 players on the 40 man roster including the 8 on the 60 day DL. We start there. Next, I would then remove Cave, Astudillo, and Garlick. All easy calls, all possible MiLB contract signers with some team and it could be the Twins if we want them back. Now we're down to 35. The top 5 players on Seth's list are all more important to the Twins both long and short term than those 3 guys. The FO should be able to make this decision in their sleep or over coffee. Now we're back up to 40. So far, no really tough decision to make. NOW, we get to the hard part. Are any of Vallimont, Gore, Hamilton. Palacios, etc. more important to keep than Smeltzer, Thorpe, Rooker, Strotman, Jax, Garza, Dobnak or Barnes? That's the choice. My choice would be to drop Thorpe and Barnes, replace them with Vallimont and Gore. Thereafter, the questions are who might get drafted and would we rather have them than Garza, Smeltzer, or Minaya, and do we need open spots for free agents. It seems logical to me that the best thing to draft/easiest to stash guy for a bad team with a longer term horizon is a pitcher; even better is an injured pitcher. Utility guy comes next. With that mindset, I do 2 things. First, I trade Rooker or Larnach together with Sano or Kepler for a combination of one MLB ready pitcher and younger non-40 man prospect(s). Opens 1 spot. I leave it open for a FA. If I need more spots, I drop Smeltzer, then Garza, and I keep Minaya. If I can't swing a trade, I drop Smeltzer, Garza and Rooker in that order (hoping to re-sign them to MiLB deals), and keep Palacios first, then Hamilton, then Schulfer. Not sure I'd trade Hamilton for Garza or Rooker for Schulfer so I might stop before or right after Hamilton. Take my chances with the rest.

I hear your point about a 7 year deal, but I disagree that to justify the contract Berrios has to pitch like an ace. $20 a year is not the price for an "ace" starter – that is closer to $25 million-$30 million a year. For $20 million a year in today's MLB, you get a solid to strong #2 starter. Not an ace, not even an average#1 starter, you get a good #2 starter. Toronto now has two good #2 starters in Ryu and Berrios, each at $20 million a year, but they don't have that ace unless Robbie Ray comes back and is the same guy he was last year (unlikely on both counts). I actually think that's a very viable strategy and applaud the Blue Jays for their moves. As for the Twins, looks like the strategy is to try to buy time for a year or two with a couple guys like Pineda and hope that the pitching fills out through guys that are presently in the minors or acquired through trades. The problem is the lineup will be gone/aged out by the time the pitching is ready to contend. That's why I think the likely move is to start dropping contracts and players from the lineup for prospects. I'm afraid we are becoming another Cleveland without the pitching pipeline. The 2022 Twins – Get To Know 'Em!

Well, it sure looks like the kind of deal that the Twins that should have been willing and able to make either last year or this off-season. Add into that the fact that Thor has signed a one-year deal with the Angels for $21 million and I think we know the price of pitching this off-season. Any thoughts of Stroman or Ray signing for less than $22 – 25 million a season over at least three or four years, and probably more like five, are gone. Even guys like Jon Gray are going to cost more like $17 million a year, not $14 or 15 million a year. It is a tough day to be a Twins fan. It is becoming more and more clear that the current regime is either badly underestimating the market cost for starting pitching of various types or ownership is unwilling to commit to the market price for pitching. We can all rail about how these guys are "overpaid" or "not worth the money" but frankly that's all irrelevant noise. The market is what the market is. We can either pay the market price and in the case of the Twins, probably a small premium over that due to the weather, last year's bad results, and the lack of ancillary financial opportunities, or we simply won't get anyone. Given that the Twins don't even seem to have been in on what appear to be not overly generous contracts to Rodriguez and Thor, and were not really in on what now appears to be a reasonable price to Berrios before trading him, it is very hard to imagine that the team will belong to pay the necessary freight to sign even a second tier free-agent starting pitcher. I think the next couple of weeks before the current CBA expires and all free-agent activity stops will be fascinating for the Twins. The timetable is now accelerated; they have to make a decision as to whether we want to be competitive in 2022/2023, or tear it all down and go into a full rebuild. I really think it's a binary choice. To me, some middle ground where we sign a couple of number three type starters and proclaim that were ready to go is not only a bad choice, it's effectively a rebuild. Maybe I'm wrong and we are close to a trade for Sonny Gray or Castillo from the Reds, or maybe someone from Miami, but it sure looks like we are out of the free agency sweepstakes almost before it even really began. My prediction (admittedly based upon being irritated by today's news ) - this is the start of the teardown. We won't be able to sign Buxton and he will be traded. Once that happens, we will trade Donaldson rather than pay him $25 million to hit 4th on a sub .500 team. The FO will gush about the "great" prospect return for those two, and move forward with trading either Sano, Garver or Kepler, or perhaps all three, for more prospects. The cycle starts anew. The sad thing is that I could get behind that strategy if the team was honest and said we think we need to tear down and rebuild. What makes this hard to stomach is the public statements about how were going to reload and be competitive in 2022, followed by news that shows we aren't really even making an effort to reload. The good news is I live in Southern California so if Thor works out, maybe the Angels will be fun to watch this year for change.

You may be right. I'm sure they see what we all see; division with no dominant team that is ripe for the taking in the next 2 or 3 years. A reunion with Verlander plus signing Rodriguez could give them a front end of a rotation. Combine that with their young starters and all the sudden they have a rotation that is capable of contending in the AL Central. Smart move by them. I hope the Twins can do something similar because the opportunity to control that division is there.

Interesting. I know Sano is a lousy 1B, but we have no where else to play him if we keep Donaldson. Donaldson needs at least 50-60 games at DH if we want 140 games from him and Sano isn't worth keeping if he's only going to play 80-90 games a year at Dh at a few at 1B. This conundrum plus the need to find a place to give Miranda a chance has me thinking more and more that we should trade one of those two guys. I just think it's really hard to keep both on the team, unless you play Sano at 1B, Donaldson/Arraez/Miranda at 3B/DH and Kirilloff/Arraez in LF. Perhaps not the best approach.

Really interesting ideas. I wouldn't be unhappy if this plan came to fruition. I do think the real problem is that Miami isn't going to want to pay Buxton long term any more than the Twins, so I don't see them biting on a deal with Buxton as the centerpiece. How about using the same trade assets without Buxton, substituting in Garver, and only getting Lopez in return? Then sign Buxton for $15-17m a year plus incentives, and not sign Canha? Rough equivalency in costs by not having Canha's projected $12m and Garver's $5.6m gone. Buxton plays CF, Kepler RF, and Kiriloff plays LF with Celestino as the 4th OF. Sano stays at 1B because we need to leave the DH spot open for Donaldson 50-60 games a year. We rotate guys thru the Dh when Doanldson isn't there opening up SBs for Miranda and Rooker or Contreras as 5th OF. Miranda plays 3B when Donaldson DHs or sits (80 games a year) and Gordon is the IF/OF UTL. Rotation is Gausman/Lopez/Gray/Ober/Ryan with Winder, Dobnak, Strotman, etc. as depth. Jeffers and Rotvedt handle the catching. Yes, less hitting down the order at catcher and SS, but a top 6 of Buxton, Polanco, Kiriloff, Donaldson, Kepler, and Sano isn't bad and you hope that one of Miranda, Rooker, Contreras, Gordon breaks out to hit 7th ( or even better hit 5th with Kepler hitting 7th). C and SS bringing up the rear. Much better pitching to help make up for the downgrade in the batting order. Even better if they'd prefer Jeffers and we keep Garver even if we have to add in a AA non-pitching prospect like Spencer Steer or de la Trinidad,, although that puts us in the market for a catcher for if/when Garver gets hurt (Tomas Tellis?). Anyway, I like the thought process. Definitely something there.

How many on the 40 man now before adding guys to avoid the Rule 5 draft?

Well done. My only concern is whether the numbers would work. Will Buxton take a guarantee of "only" 16m and will the Twins give it? Jon Gray at $14m feels a little light; I think he can get $15-17 on a multiyear deal. Same with Pineda at $8m, I think he'll get $9-10. The big question is Stroman at $22m. I just think he could get more like $25m a year on a long termish kind of deal. Even if these higher numbers are right, it only represents another $5-7m a year. That still keeps us at $150m or less. We declined Colome so that gives us a few extra bucks. Well done sir, well done.

Guys, unless there is a trade we already know who is going to play LF next season - Alex Kirilloff. Think about how the roster is presently constructed. Sano is going to play virtually every day absent injury and he can only play IB or DH. Same for Donaldson, and he can only play 3B or DH, an probably needs to DH at least 40-50% of the time. They want to keep Arraez' bat in the lineup and he can only really play 2B, 3B or DH. Polanco is our best player and he will get 140 games next year at 2B. Kepler is the everyday RF with some platoon from a RH hitter. So where's the room for Kirilloff to be an everyday player on the present roster? Left Field and only Left Field. Obviously, a trade would change everything and potentially open up IB or RF for Kirilloff if Sano or Kepler are traded, or if Donaldson is traded and Sano becomes a full time DH with Arraez and Miranda sharing 3B. At this point, the only trades involving these guys that make sense are either a trade of Sano, Polanco, Arraez or Kepler PLUS young MiLB talent (probably pitching) for young controllable MLB pitching, or a salary dump trade of Donaldson to open up payroll space to sign a free-agent pitcher. The 1st seems unlikely because Sano, Arraez, and Kepler just don't have that much value to anyone other than a hitting starved team like Miami, and they won't trade Polanco's team friendly contract unless there is an unlikely pitching overpay by someone. The 2nd seems unlikely if the team/FO is being honest that they intend to try to contend in 2022. Trading Donaldson would be equivalent to putting out a sign that says "2022 is a development year, hopefully we'll contend by 2023 or more likely 2024." While both scenarios could happen, I think the odds are at least 60/40 that neither will happen and that next year's opening day roster will include Donaldson, Kepler, Sano, Arraez and Polanco, each of whom the team will be looking to get at least 500 to 550 plate appearances. that leaves LF as the ONLY option to get 500+ ABs for Kirilloff. The good news is that a healthy Kirilloff in LF should substantially improve the team's standing in the statistical rankings for that position. I think we can reasonably expect a baseline of .270-.280/ .330-.350/.450+ from him if he stays healthy. I think Celestino is the team's 4th OF and he will get some play in LF. Larnach will at least start the season in AAA and probably doesn't come up to the majors unless there is an injury or we have another lousy season and they want to give him at bats in August or September. I think the team is seen enough of Rooker for the time being and he will either be with someone else if taken in the Rule 5 draft, or he will get another year at AAA to try to boost his standing and hope that Martin, de la Trinidad, Contreras, etc. don't pass him up. So, there just is no room at the Inn for a guy like Canha, Conforto, or for the guy I would like to see come back, Eddie Rosario. Lucas is right that we need improved production from LF. I think we will get it and get it from Alex Kirilloff. I think the Twins should spend all of their free agent money on pitching, pitching, and more pitching, plus a stopgap shortstop, and not on anything else. The good news is is at least they declined the option on Colome. That represents a good start.

I could see signing Gray to a 3-5 year 15-17m a year kind of contract. Not sure if those numbers are high enough, but I think they might be. He would slot in as a #2/3 along with Pineda. This works IF the Twins go out and sign at least a semi-legit #1 like Stroman or Ray, or trade for that guy. Alternatively, sign Jon Gray and Pineda, and trade for Sonny Gray. Yes, that's a rotation of #2/#3 types followed by young kids. It might be more doable and that kind of rotation can get you into the playoffs in the short term. Long term, one of the kids has to develop into Berrios or better. Not sure if we have that pitcher but may be we do....

I agree with the grades and I think we already know 2/3 of next year's OF - Buxton in CF and Kirilloff in LF (Sano isn't tradeable and he has to play 1B so Donaldson can get 80 games a year at DH). Kepler is really the wild card going into next season. I think he is what he is and what you described, a low avg., low OBP, decent power, strong defensive OF. In other words, the perfect 4th OF on a contending team who gets 350-400 ABs a year playing all three OF positions, occasional DH, and LH pinch hitter. The question is whether there's anyone who can be that 3rd OF and take his job. Watch Celestino, he's the one possibility I see. Hit well in AAA after he was sent back, could start as the 4th OF this year and slowly squeeze Max out of the starting lineup to the bench. Larnach is another year away. Rooker is trade bait or AAA home run champion but he isn't an everyday MLB player.

That might have been me but don't let me take someone else's credit. Regardless of from whence it came, the conundrum is clear: we have a lineup that appears capable competing now and for the next 2 – 4 years, paired with a pitching staff that absent outside of multiple free agents or trades is not capable of competing that same time frame. If that's correct, the logical choices seem to be to either trade away our more veteran position players for prospects/controllable pitching with a plan to compete starting in 2003 or 2024, more likely not until 2024, or import pitching so we can compete in 2022 and 2023, and perhaps beyond. Both approaches have pluses and minuses. That's why I think the key issue this off-season will be whether or not we can sign Byron Buxton into a long term deal. He is the key position player to make and keep that lineup competitive. With him, all we really need is good health and some incremental development from guys like Kirilloff and we have a top 10 and perhaps a top 5 offensive team. Add in a strong defensive SS and the defense jumps into the top half and maybe even higher. Without him, the lineup is probably top half at best and without him and without a strong defensive SS, the lineup is mediocre at best defensively. I really think the FO has to pick a path and stick to it. If competing in the short term is the goal, Cody is right. We need to overpay if necessary to sign a top tier starter, plus sign (John Gray) or trade for a #2 like Alcantra (in a trade that does not involve trading Kirilloff, Lewis or Martin, everybody else is available), sign Pineda to be the #3 and then use Ober and Ryan, WInder, Dobnak, etc. as the backend of the rotation. We also need to sign at least a Freddie Galvis type to play short. If that isn't viable or the FO decides the long-term development route is the way to go, then the path is also pretty clear. Trade Buxton in the off-season for pitching, pitching and more pitching. Trade Donaldson and promote Miranda, sign Rogers to an arbitration deal and hope he is healthy enough to trade for big return at the deadline, at least explore the trade market for Sano and Kepler in return for pitching, even if it's prospects, and consider whether trading Polanco gets you enough to approximate his pretty high value. I don't like this latter approach as a fan, but I could at least understand it if you went full bore on development, promoted guys even if they're not quite ready, and pushed the process as quickly as possible . What I can't understand is playing it halfway in between. My vote is to sign Buxton, sign Stroman (overpaying if you must), trade real prospects plus Kepler or Sano for Alcantra, keep Donaldson, and sign Galvis or Iglesias. Let's compete next season, if there is a next season.

I hate to be the proverbial turd in the punchbowl but I think we need to be realistic. Premium free agents like Taylor aren't going to leave a World Series contender to come to an 89 loss team with no pitching unless there is a substantial overpay. I just don't see that happening from the Twins given all of the other needs. Also, if Taylor came he would be playing SS most days. I think we know who the LF is next year. It's Alex Kirilloff with an occasional Arraez day out there unless they trade one of Sano, Donaldson or Kepler. Think about the roster. Sano and Donaldson can play one position each - IB or 3B - and DH. That's it. We learned last year that the the way to get 130 plus games a year out of Donaldson is to DH him at least 40% pf the time and that will increase as he gets older. Sano has to play 1B or sit on those days Donaldson is the DH and Arraez has no place to play with Polanco at 2B as our best player. We aren't moving Polanco back to SS because of his poor defense there so he will get 140 games at 2B next year with another 10-15 at DH to keep him fresh. I could see Kirilloff in RF if they trade Kepler and only then is LF open. So I think the OF for next year is already set barring injury or trade with the only competition for that 4th OF spot. We start out with Buxton in CF unless he's traded, Kirilloff in LF, and Kepler in RF. Sano plays 1B most days and Donaldson and Arraez alternate at 3B and DH. I think Celestino will win the 4th OF spot since he can play CF and they don't like Kepler there for some reason that I don't understand. If they won't play Kepler in CF much then we have to have a CF as the 4th OF with Buxton's history. That means no Rosario (much as I would like that), no Taylor, no pick your free agent. There's just no place to play someone like that unless they trade Sano to give Kirilloff an opening at 1B, trade Donaldson so Sano can move to the DH spot, or trade Kepler for pitching to open up RF. And frankly if they open up RF it will be for Arraez to play every day, with Gordon becoming the super utility guy, and Miranda up to get 300 ABs at 3B and/or DH. Let's not worry about a new OF. Let's spend all of the money available on pitching and a better SS. that's how this team gets better.

Like Graveman, but doubt the Astros will let him go. Knebel.

I think the only way Kirilloff is the everyday 1B next year is if Sano or Donaldson is gone. Think about it. Sano can only play 1B or DH. Donaldson has to DH at least 50-60 games or more if we want 135 games a year out of him and I think that's an absolute necessity to compete. Arraez needs 30 games at DH to save his knees, so that only leaves a max of 70-80 DH games for Sano. He will play every day. I think Sano is your everyday 1B unless either he or Donaldson gets traded and I think that's a low probability. The good news is that Kirilloff can play LF and play it better than Larnach or Rooker. There's no one else pushing for that spot so Kirilloff in LF makes a great deal of sense to me. That's the only way you can get Kirilloff, Donaldson, Sao, and Arraez all in the lineup at the same time.

Interesting article, but I don't think that there's a binary choice here of Rooker or Gralick. Frankly, I don't either one of them will make the MLB team and I think that's the right answer. By the time you have the 8 starters in the field plus Arraez, Celestino or another 4th OF, Jeffers as the 2nd catcher and 13 pitchers, there's only 2 spots left. I expect Gordon to get one of them - he showed more this year than Larnach or Rooker. I think that last spot on the roster comes down to Mranda (my choice), Refsnyder, Larnach or Rooker (Kirilloff is the LF and I think Astudillo and Cave are gone). I think Rooker finishes no higher than 3rd in that pecking order and I would say 4th. The only way he stays is if we trade Kepler or Sano with high upside MiLB players for starting pitching in the off season. Then, Rooker as a 5th OF/backup 1B/ part time DH might work but even then I'm dubious with the other 3 all better choices.

Great post. The real problem is that the pitching and lineup are not in sync on the development curve. The lineup is close to being ready to compete and might be if Buxton plays 140 games. The pitching, both ends but particularly the rotation, is not. By the time the presently in house pitching is ready (if ever, always a crapshoot), the lineup will be too old or too expensive. So, which way do we go? I say we compete, mostly because I think we have enough on the farm to make a decent trade or two. On the 6 questions: (1) Lewis or Palacios may be the long term solution so this next year we sign a stop gap. Freddy Galvis or Iglesias make sense. Save the $$$ for pitching. (2) 2 new starters at a minimum, 3 if re-signing Pineda counts as "new". Sign one premium free agent like Stroman, Rondon or Jon Gray to a 3-5 year deal. Stay away from older types like Verlander or Greinke. Stay far, far away from not quite there types like Alex Cobb or Danny Duffy. That spot goes to Pineda. Trade for one more starter - Alcantara or Rogers from Miami, Zach Gallen, someone like that and don't be afraid to part with real non-pitching assets like Martin or Miranda in combo with Kepler or Sano to get a good, young controllable starter. Re-sign Pineda. Rotation goes Stroman, Alcantara, Pineda, Ober, Ryan. Don't worry about the other prospects getting an MLB chance in 2022; there will be plenty of IL time, etc. available for the others like Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, etc. to get a chance to show what they can do at the MLB level. (3) Go to arbitration with Rogers and pay him. If he appears healthy try to negotiate a 2-3 year deal by the AS break and if you can't, keep him if you're in contention, trade him if you aren't. If he isn't able to go physically, eat the arb salary with a smile - it was worth the shot. (4) Don't play reliever roulette - keep the 6 guys mentioned, use guys like Jax or a FA to fill out the pen. Keep Colome but only if Rocco promises he'll use a "closer by situation" approach, not a "Colome every time" approach. (5) The DH is for rotation. Donaldson plays 50/50 DH and 3B, same for Arraez. When one sits, 4th Of (Celestino), or backup IF like Gordon or Miranda DHs. Do NOT sign a full time DH unless you trade Donaldson. You can't have both. (6) SIGN BUXTON. He is one of the 2 keys to contention along with the rotation. Almost as importantly, signing him shows the team and the fan base that you're serious about winning. Will we need to over pay/take risk? Yup. He's worth it. The twins cannot win consistently, or even every now and then, without taking significant risk. He is worth that risk.

I agree on Celestino. Assuming no trades of outfielders, I think Celestino profiles nicely as the 4th OF in 2022 playing in a platoon in RF with Kepler and being Buxton's primary backup. Let's get him 250-300 plus ABs next year and I think he could be starter material by 2023.

Interesting idea. I wonder if a combination of Garver and Kepler would be enough to interest Miami in trading someone like Sandy Alcantra, or more likely Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez or Trevor Rogers? There would undoubtedly need to be some adjusting Minor Leaguers included depending on the target but I think this is a combination worth exploring. BTW, I'd also be willing to swap out Jeffers for Garver or add Sano or swap him out for Kepler to get the best return. I also agree that we need to get a veteran LH backup catcher to pair with which ever catcher is left if we make a trade like this. Rotvedt isn't MLB ready at the plate yet. He needs at least another year at the AAA level and can be the emergency 3rd catcher to call up in case of injury. .

Agreed. This is why it's so hard to evaluate Rocco.

Well, we don't have to worry about a spot for Colina. He was put on waivers and claimed by the Rangers. The changes begin...