LA Vikes Fan

Ryan starts Wednesday. If you look at the starting rotation, they just sent Charlie Barnes down to AAA. Gant will start tomorrow, and Jax pitched Sunday so he’s in line to start Friday in Tampa Bay. That means someone is coming up to start Wednesday. Ryan went 5 innings, 1 run, 81 pitches against Toledo last week, hasn’t pitched since. Not scheduled to start in St. Paul tomorrow. All the signs say Ryan starts Wednesday against the Cubs. Home game, mediocre opponent. Good place for him to get his first MLB start. As for the other spot? I’m hoping Miranda, but Moran is the smarter move. We need to audition pitchers, not position players. Miranda will have to wait. Arreaz looks hurt again so maybe a 10 day IL for him gets Miranda up.

All Albers has done is get guys out since he got here. Hard top find fault with that, especially given our other options.

You guys realize that after tonight, Andrew Albers will be starting every 5th day through the next month?

This almost makes you wonder if there is someone in the Front Office (or maybe at the MLB or AAA pitching coach level) who saw something in these marginal relief pitchers and is going to make damn sure that he is wrong before letting them go. Gibault did not perform in AAA. I can only think of two reasons why he would be called up. The first is that someone in the Front Office, on the twins coaching staff, or on the St. Paul coaching staff, is convinced this guy can be a performing, functional major-league reliever if he just does what this brilliant mind has for him and everyone is catering to this guys fragile ego even though the evidence is pretty overwhelming that this evaluation was wrong. The only other reason I can think of, and the one I hope it must be, is that we need an arm, they were planning on DFA'ing Gibault anyway at the end of the season, and they want to wait until September 1 to call up certain other guys so they call Gibault up now knowing that he's an easy guy to DFA on September 1 when they want to call up guys like Ryan, Hamilton, Moran, or others that are not on the 40 man roster. I'm really hoping it's the second reason and this is all the result of timing. Can I ask one question of you guys to know the MLB rules in much better depth than I do? I understand that we would need to put a guy like Ryan on the 40 man roster to bring him up to the Twins. If we wait until September 1 or later does that delay his free agency clock or give us some advantage in later control over him, or does a call up on September 1 act like a call up any other time for free agency purposes? I understand that on September 1 we can add two players so we don't have to drop anybody, although I don't think that explains a lot of what's going on, so I'm curious if it has something to do with player control. I'm just trying to make this merry go round make sense.

Who's hitting? Not Rooker. He line is .195/.277/.398 (.676) so far this year. OPS+ of 88. Not good but only 137 at bats. If you add in his good streak when he came up in 2020, his career is .211/.277/.398 (.714). OPS+ of 98. 158 plate appearances, 142 at bats. Not good for a guy who adds little or no defensive value. That's why there probably isn't room for him on the 2022 roster.

Well, great to see the bullpen coming through again. Barraclough's era just went up to 13.50. Think he'll get it up to 15 in this appearance?

Having an older pitching staff at the beginning of the year actually made sense; it just doesn't make sense now. If you think you're a contender, you tend to have an older pitching group at AAA so you want guys with some MLB experience to pitch when there are injuries rather than prospects. The Dodgers do exactly the same thing if you look at their AAA roster. You want guys like Coulombe, Theilbar, Law, Barraclough, etc. who have pitched in the bigs. They are better short term fill ins on a contending team than untested propects. What doesn't make sense is keeping them now. Do we really think Law, Barraclough or Coulombe will be on the team next year making a contribution? Theilbar I can see. A lot of this has to do with either keeping the Saints' season rolling or suppressing service time. Other wise, this makes no sense.

Hey, who else is Rocco going to run out there to close? Kyle Barraclough? Juan Minaya (actually, he might be an upgrade)? Garza? Garcia? Caleb Theilbar? Tyler Duffy remains missing in action, Rogers is hurt, Alcala is hurt and wasn't great, Coulombe has had is run is now back to being mediocre, and we all cheered when Robles left town. This isn't the manager's fault. I kind of understand why we haven't gone to bringing up the AAA bullpen with the attendant 40 man issues, effect on the Saints title push, etc. I just don't agree with it. It's time to bring up Hamilton and Moran, and I would give Vasquez a shot with them. Push some combination of Barraclough, Garcia, Garza, Coulombe and yes, even Astudillo and Simmons off the 40 man if that's what we need to do. One question. When we add 2 people on 9/1 do they have to go on the 40 man or do we get a "free" look? Might explain some of the head scratching decisions.

I'd love to see them bring Ryan up for his next start at the MLB level. Given that he pitched yesterday, He would be in line for Detroit on 8/30 or the Cubs on 8/31 or 9/1. My money is either the Cubs on 9/1 or another start in AAA and then a start in MLB on about ('6 or 9"7 against Cleveland at home. That way they can use the extra two spots to not have to make a corresponding move. The big problem this team will have is getting enough relievers/relief innings. They don't have anyone likely to go more than 5 innings a start so there will be a lot of relief innings to cover. The bullpen is already imploding under the strain of 5 inning starts. We will need to cover at least 5 or 6 innings tonight - no way Gant goes more than 4 and my money is on 3 - and we got no one to do it unless they piggyback Barnes. If they do that, then who starts this weekend? They have Albers Friday and then who if they use Barnes tonight? Jax isn't up until Sunday. This is a mess.

DocBauer is right that it's Miranda that makes next year's lineup construction tough. I'd love to see him up this year so we can see where he is with respect to MLB pitching. I know that St. Paul has a chance to be AAA champs and that he's their best hitter. I also think that there really is value in having a guy like Miranda be in clutch situations in the AAA playoffs because that can translate to MLB clutch situations. Still, this is a year to find out what you have. That includes position players as well as pitchers. Let's get Miranda up in September and get him 75-80m MLB at bats. We NEED to know if he's ready or needs to start next year in AAA.

While I am not a big fan of Kepler, I completely agree with this assessment. He is a serviceable 3rd/4th OF for a contending team. His defense is such that he probably should start 70% of the time and sit the other 30% against LH pitching. He provides value such that we need to keep him going forward. To make that work the best way, we do need a RH backup outfielder who can start when Kepler sits, ideally one who can play CF when necessary. Maybe that guy is Celestino or Refsnyder next year, maybe it's an off-season free agent, but it probably isn't Larnach or Rooker. I think Larnach and Rooker will either make or not make it next year's roster depending on whether they can win a job in LF. If not, they're both better served playing in AAA, assuming in Rooker's case that we want to keep him at all. What complicates all of this is finding a place for Kirilloff, Arraez, Donaldson, and Sano to play regularly next year. I say that assuming the Sano we will get next year is somewhat similar to the second half Sano of this year - roughly a .250/. 350-.360/.475-.500 kind of player who also strikes out 30 to 35% of the time. While that guy is not a middle of the order bat, it is worth having him here hitting 6th or 7th in the order. The issue is that Sano can only play 1B or DH, Donaldson 3B or DH (I agree that he's wasted at 1B), and Arraez 3B or 2B where we have our best player, Polanco. I really think that the answer is to do what they intended to do with the start this year and play Kirilloff in LF, with Sano at 1B. Donaldson's physical limitations are such that it is hard for me to see him playing more than 50 – 75 games a year at 3B. That leaves plenty of games for Arraez at 3B, and he and Donaldson can be the DH most of the days when that one is not playing 3B. We don't have to worry about leaving the DH open for Sano most games and we can even rotate a few guys through on occasion to give them a partial day off. If, on the other hand, we put Kirilloff at 1B, then we really have a logjam with the other 3 guys and all we've done is open up a spot for Larnach or Rooker, both of whom have had a chance this year to win that spot but have not been able to do so. They will get another opportunity next year at some point due to injury so it may be better for them to start next year in AAA, and in Larnach's case get some experience at that level that he hasn't had until the last couple of weeks. In Rooker's case, he's had the AAA experience, kind of/sort of did well at that level, but he hasn't shown any thing that makes me think we want to create a spot for him at the major-league level. He may be a guy that we package as part of the trade to another team that sees him as a potential breakout candidate or he may just be depth waiting for another opportunity. And, to echo many other posters, I simply don't see any basis for Cave to be on next year's team in any capacity. He should either sign a minor league deal with us as AAA depth or seek out a better opportunity elsewhere

That makes sense. No need to call up whoever is going to take his spot in the rotation yet since that spot won't come up until Friday or Saturday. Besides, we can always give Albers a start. I cringe at that, but I have to admit that the guy went 4 innings, one run in NY. Lots of reasons that it could be a mirage - late innings in a blow out game, no one has seen him for 2-3 years, etc. - but he did perform when given the opportunity. Does make one wonder how he would do in a regular start in MN against Milwaukee this coming weekend. I have a feeling that we may just find out. I'd even bet that he will be with the organization next year as a 6th or 7th starter in St. Paul and will wind up getting a few starts with the Twins. Who would have guessed that over the last couple of years?

This makes sense to me.

What's interesting is that his WHIP has improved from 1.572 in St. Louis, 25 games, 14 starts, to 1.167, 8 games, 1 start. That does suggest that he might be a guy who doesn't have enough of a pitch variety to navigate through a lineup more than once. I saw him pitch and he seems to have a nice FB with good movement, although a bit wild, and not a lot else.

Thanks for the info, Brock. That's more than I had. It sure doesn't look good, I agree. I still think that it's worth giving him some run as a starter given the alternatives. It's unlikely that he's a long term solution as a starter, although I do think he can be an effective middle reliver/long man type. Plus pitchers can get better over time. I would say that he "only" just turned 28, so his age isn't a deal breaker for me yet. With Maeda out, probably for the season, we have the opportunity to see what we can get out of these guys in the rotation so we know how badly we are set up for next year. Ober and Jax are successes that at least I would not have predicted. Burrows and (I think) Barnes, not successes and we should pull the plug on those experiments. Give Gant a shot and see whether he can improve. Call up Strotman and Ryan and give them 3-5 starts. I can't think of anyone else unless Winder is healthy enough for a look. Welcome to the rotation shuffle.

Gant was 4-6, 3.42 ERA for the Cards this year, 25 appearances, 14 starts. In 2018 he was 7-6, 3.47 ERA, 26 games, 19 starts. Reliever in 2019 and 2020. Had a 3.76 ERA as a starter for St. Louis, with a 5.17 FIPP (!), when sent to the bullpen a month to 6 weeks ago after 3 rough starts in 4 appearances. St. Louis was in contention at the time so they couldn't wait to let him work things out. St. Louis apparently thought he could be a starter, at least for awhile. Look, I don't think Gant looks like a long term starter but there's no reason not to find that out. It's not like we're blessed with a multitude of SP candidates to audition. Ober and Jax are performing, Barnes is not and probably shouldn't be starting, Winder is hurt, Belazovic hasn't pitched above AA and he's been inconsistent there, Albers is 35 and limited at best, and we just got Strotman and Ryan. Did I miss anybody? Why not give Gant a 3-5 start run to build up his innings and see what we have? He at least has a track record of some success. We're at the stage of throwing possible starters at the wall to see what sticks. Who knows? He might stick.

I see that Maeda went on the IL. Who comes up? Strotman is on the 40 man roster, Ryan has pitched better, and Miranda is doing great but we need a pitcher. Strotman pitched Sunday, Ryan last Friday and we need a starter on Thursday unless we actually are going to throw Charlie Barnes out to get lit up again or give Gant another try. My guess is Ryan will come up, Gant will start on Thursday as part of a piggy back with Barnes, and Ryan will start on Friday against the Brewers at home. Frankly, almost as likely that they will do the same thing except substitute Strotman for Ryan.

You start with a few facts and the choice is right in front of you. Fact 1- Polanco isn’t going back to SS. He’s the 2B long term. Fact 2 - Donaldson can’t move and is Physically incapable of playing in the field more than 50 to 75 games a year at third base. He hast to be the DH if he stays. Fact 3. - Arraez Has a bad knee, cannot physically play a lot in the outfield because of that knee and requires some either IL or DH time. Fact 4 - We have too many people for the DH/1B/3B spots and none of them can play SS. Either one of them has to be traded or sit on the bench. Fact 5 - there is an open spot in LF and potentially an open part time spot in RF, depending on what you think about Kepler’s future. Neither Rooker or Larnach has shown enough this year to be penciled into LF. I see two choices. Either move Kiriloff back to LF, which opens up first base for Sano, and leaves potentially Donaldson, Miranda and Arraez playing third base and DH. The other choice is to keep Kirilloff at first base, which means either Donaldson has to play third with Sano the DH, Areaez Utl And Miranda a back up infielder or in AAA. In that scenario, Kepler plays almost every day and Larnach and Rooker fight it out for the LF job. My suggestion? Trade Donaldson. Opens up third base for Arraez on a daily basis unless and until Miranda beats him out for the job, and which point he becomes a UTL. Decide if you think either Larnach or Rooker can be your every day leftfielder. If they can’t, and I think it’s pretty clear that Rooker can’t with Larnach still a possibility. put Kirilloff in LF, Sano at 1B, Arraez at 3B/Utl, Give Miranda a shot at third base, and rotate bench players through the DH spot or use it for partial days off. Even better, bring back Nelson Cruz to DH If they can. Miranda this year? Stays in Saint Paul until their season is over. Twins have financial incentives for doing that and they like to have their MILB players taste success on the way up. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him this year unless the Saint Paul season ends in time to give him a taste at the very end of the season. I’m not saying it’s the right call, I think it’s the call they’ve already made.

I think the 7 yr/80m deal they negotiated as his base is frankly a great deal for the Twins. Think about it this way, we're committed to pay Kepler 8.5m next year and 10m in 2023, and Sano 9.25m and 14m those same two years. No question Buxton is worth more than they are if he plays 80 games a season, a lot more if he plays 130. We're getting him for 11.57m a season base. Not a huge risk and one easily worth taking. I don't know what the difference is on the incentives but I can't believe that it's such that there's no deal to be had unless the Twins think that by guaranteeing 11.57m a year that they are stretching. IF they think that, we have the wrong guys negotiating the deals. That's a great deal, it's not a stretch. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's going to take a 3 or 4 year deal unless we pay handsomely for it - like 20m a year. A 3 year, 45m deal? Not happening. There is zero incentive for him to take that. He will do better after the 2022 season unless he suffers a career ending injury and he can insure for that. He will get a minimum of 17-20 m a year in guarantees if he has a decent or better season next year. The only way a mid market team can stay competitive is to take risk - signing players long term before having a complete picture or overpaying older players. We can't and won't pay market for guys in their prime. Sometimes it works - see Polanco, sometimes it's a best a small loss - see Donaldson, sometimes its unclear and we might crash and burn - See Kepler and Sano. We still need to take the risk. It's the only way to truly compete. The deal is there. Make it, sign Buxton, and spend the rest of your money on pitching.

Kepler’s a fine defensive player. He just isn’t a good hitter and never has been other than 2019. Yes, his OPS+ is 101 but he’s a corner OF, not a SS, CF, or a C. He is s supposed to be over 100 and should be over 110 to play every day at a corner OF spot. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF that should be in a platoon playing 3-4 days a week and being a late inning defensive replacement when he doesn’t start. Kepler isn’t a bad player, he’s just a disappointment. We were all hoping he could be a core player going forward on a good team. He’s not. He’s a good defensive OF who should be playing 60% of the time on a good team hitting 7th or 8th and we should be looking for a better player to replace him. He’s not a guy we can build around.

I'm interested in seeing both Ryan and Strotman, Strotman is scheduled to pitch Sunday for St. Paul so I guess that will tell us if he's coming up any time soon. I'd frankly like to see them both up soon pitching in a rotation with Ober, Jax, Gant and maybe Albers unless Winder can start a game or two in September. I think Barnes has shown enough for us to know that he's not ready and can be re-evaluated next season. Conversely, Maeda's injury may be a blessing in disguise. It will give us a rotation turn to give try outs to other guys. Forearm tightness usually means an IL stint and at some point it doesn't make sense to use Maeda in this lost season any more and risk injury, We will desperately need him next year.

Well, this poll is particularly timely right now since Maeda left with “right forearm tightness” today. Sounds like that may be the end of his season for him. We have now lost all five starters from the beginning of the season. Don’t really need to wonder why we stink so bad do we? I went with the home game against Milwaukee because I think they will want to ease him in a little, not just send him out there to get hammered against Boston. My guess is our old friend Andrew Albers get a start in Boston. Frankly, he’s looked better than any of the other starters we’ve called up this year other than Jax and Ober. I also think Strotman will get a start pretty soon.

You'd think the ump would take pity on Barnes and give him some of those close pitches just to get this game moving.

This is a pretty pathetic lineup. With Buxton, Kepler and Sano out, we have 2 journeymen 5th or 6th OFs in LF and RF, a converted SS/2B in CF, a SS whose OPS is the lowest in MLB for a starting player, and the fun to watch clown at 1B. Add in a starting pitcher who should be in AAA or perhaps AA and you have the perfect recipe for getting blown out by the second inning. I feel for the Yankees fans who paid full price for this.

I guess with this performance we have found another guy we can drop off the 40 man without fear in order to add someone else and being them up from AAA. Barnes does not look anything like a MLB pitcher.