LA Vikes Fan

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group. That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good). The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team. Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2. Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot. This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now.

I hear you. It's a lot easier for me to say what I think the Twins should do from here in LA where I can watch the dodgers and Angels, and not have to pay MLB prices to watch the twins throw Ober, Barnes and Jax in a 3 game series. I agree that the Twins should run deals, promotions, etc. to help ease the pain of watching a re-tooling/evaluating team. Doesn't help you if you bought season tickets but that's the risk you take. trust me, I'm in season ticket groups for the Kings, Dodgers, Lakers and Chargers so I'm very familiar with going to games where you keep asking "who is that guy again?" while having the joy of paying full price for the tickets. Rumor has it that the Twins FO actually monitors this board and that there is someone on the board who actually works for the team,. Shows what a great job our moderators do. If there is, let me add to my long 6 point post sent at at about 9 a.m. LA time: 7. Discount all but the best seats so fans can bring their families, get decent seats, hot dogs and a coke and spend $100 or less for 4. The rest of this year is about evaluating players. Don't make the fans pay full price to watch that. You will make more money long term if you treat the fans like adults with a stake in the team. Have Jim Pohlad go on TV flanked by Falvey and Levine, announce the team's longer term plans, and say we're reducing 2021 prices so the fans can come out for the rest of the year and get to know the 2022 team. Give season ticket holders a 10% discount on next year if they buy or renew in the next 30 days. Get the fans invested and you'll make it back and then some next year.

I think this deadline is playing out the way it probably should for the Twins. Patience is key here. The Cruz trade was the right move because the offer was good enough to move early. It looks like the rest of the offers have not been good enough. My view: 1. Don't trade Buxton, sign him. From what I read, the $80m guarantee is over 7 years is acceptable to both, the issue is the size of the escalators. There is a deal there, make it. The only way a midmarket team can keep someone this talented is to get lucky and take risk. That's what we need to do here. 2. Only trade Berrios now if you get a huge package. From the Dodgers, it must include either a Dustin May or Gavin Lux type player, +1 of their top starting pitching prospects like Gray or Peipot, plus an A+ or AA pitcher or shortstop with upside. Do not trade him unless you can get that. If all we're being offered is a lesser package, we can get that over the winter and it gives us a chance to re-sign him. Consider trading Donaldson to create the payroll space to give the money to Berrios. We need him more. 3. With two possible exceptions, trade all of the expiring contracts for effectively whatever you can get. It ain't going to be much given the performance of these guys but restocking the lower levels with guys that don't have to be on the 40 man roster right away has value. The point here is not the return. The point here is opening up opportunities now, not next year NOW, for the next wave of guys who might help us in 2022 through 2025. If you have to DFA guys like Happ to move him off the roster, do it. Colome is tougher because they still the hint of reclamation there as a middle of the bullpen guy and we need that. 4. The other exception is Pineda. Only trade him if you can get a solid to good return in the form of pitching that can be on the MLB roster next year or a shortstop. If you can't get that, try to re–sign him NOW. He wants to stay, is a solid number 3 or number 4 starter (#3 if he gives you 30 starts, #4 the more likely event he gives you 20 starts) and he wants to stay. 2 years $20 - $25 million. 5. Avoid the temptation to trade guys who can be contributing parts of a contending team in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe and for whom there are no obvious replacements like Duffy, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Maeda, etc. unless a team overpays. Do not let other teams take our decent quality players unless we decide to trade all of them and start over. I don't think were ready to do that nor do I think we need to do that. 6. PLAY the young guys so we can evaluate them for next year around what we need to find over the winter. In the field, that means Rooker, Gordon, Larnach, Miranda all get a lot of at bats. Same for Sano, Refsnyder and/or Contreras if the FO thinks they can be contributors next year. Celestino is not ready, so he goes back to AAA at the very least. Rotvedt is in the same boat and should stay in AAA. Whatever you do, do not play guys like Astudillo and Cave at the expense of these other guys. Astudillo and Cave might be numbers 25 – 30 on the roster next year but we already know what they can do. Let's not be 1 of those teams that tries to eke out another 3 – 5 wins this season by playing guys really have no long-term future as significant contributors. 7. PITCH the young guys for the same reason. Hopefully after the trade deadline dust settles, there will be room in the starting rotation for at least Jax and/or Barnes, and hopefully for Winder. Give all of these guys a minimum of 5 or 6 start down the stretch and keep Ober in the rotation until he reaches his innings limit, then sit him and give the last few starts to someone else. Hopefully the bullpen will have room for at least some of Hamilton, Vasquez, Moran, and Cano. Get those guys at least 10 – 15 appearances each, again so you can see what we have. Send Alcala back to AAA if you need to to create room. Look, all of this sucks and seems like every move we made over the winter backfired. Having said that, we are where we are. We need to have a plan to move forward to make things better as soon as possible. I think this plan does that and, more importantly gives us the data we see how far away we are by the end of the season. That helps make a decision on guys like Berrios and whether to try to re-sign guys like Cruz and Pineda if he's traded. Stop mucking around and commit to a re-tooling this year or we're going to be stuck in never never land again next year.

I give up. We stink.

Wily Peralta, 10 run lead, melts down, taken out and can't get through the 4th inning. Wonder if we can trade for him? He'd fit right in.

Well, I just tuned in from work. I guess I don't have to worry about watching this game and g being unproductive. So let's see, possible trade candidates we were hoping to see go for prospects; Robles - Gave up grand slam to blow 4 run 9th inning lead last night, ERA now 4.91, left "feeling dizzy"; Colome - Blew lead Monday night, at least 5 blown saves, -1.1 WAR year to date; Happ - With today's performance, ERA now 6.77, which I believe is highest starter ERA in American League; and Simmons - .217 avg, .571 OPS entering game. 152./212/.196 slash line last 30 games. Hmm, I'm thinking big haul here.

I looked and saw that Refsnyder and Contreras have been playing LF and RF for St. Paul over the last week, and both have an OPS over .900. That suggests we have options to bring up if its time for Larnach and/or Celestino to get more AAA time. I think both need to go back down and re-set, with Larnach coming back up in late August or September. Celstino needs the rest of the season in AAA and maybe most or all of next year. Bring up Refsnyder and Contreras and let's see what they can do. Refsnyder can take the CF duties against LH starters, he did it before, or Kepler can play CF against LHs with Refsnyder in right. Improves the RH offense without a huge sacrifice on defense. Gordon or Cave can play CF against RH pitching. I vote for Gordon because he may be part of next year's team and Cave probably is not unless there's injuries. He appears to have an option left so stashing him in AAA as injury insurance is ok if we don't want to or can't trade or DFA him. This is an evaluation/development year, bottom line. Everything has to be evaluated in that light even if it hurts the 2021 product. Next year's 4 top OFs are Buxton, Kepler and . . . (assuming Kirilloff is the 1B). The answers to the "and . . . " should come from Larnach, Refsnyder, Rooker, Gordon, and maybe Contreras. Celestino probably is not in the mix for a 26 man spot at the start of next year. Kepler can be the starting RF or he is a perfect 4th OF given his excellent defense, ability to play CF, and below average bat (for a corner OF). We're doing the right thing with Rooker by playing him almost every day and giving him real innings in the OF. Let's do the same with Gordon, Contreras and Refsnyder now, give Larnach a re-set, and bring Larnach back up for the last month so we can have as much data on these guys as possible.

So Astudiilo doesn’t hit much, cant really field any position well, cant bunt or engage in situational hitting, has no speed, and is older so he isn’t going to develop. Why do we have him on the roster and, even worse, actually play him? Oh, that's right “positional flexibility”. And the fans love him! Why? Because he’s a fat guy like us! personally, I love having a chance to win. Astudillo doesn’t help with that. We have to have someone better.

I was going to post “Astudillo up, Sano at 2nd, cue the clown music”. It just seemed to obvious. .

Well, that was pathetic. I’m so mad I might not even watch the whole game tomorrow. So there!

Good point. Give him 3 and if he doesn’t get at least 2 outs, pull him.

Robles reminds me of Vinnie Johnson in rhe NBA, the microwave. You put him in and he shoots a couple of times. He makes them, he stays in. He misses, you pull him and glue him to the bench. He either has it or he doesn’t. None if the “ he’ll find it” crap. Robles, two hitters . If he doesn’t get them out, pull him immediately. He ain’t going to ger better.

Wow, left for a few innings. Robles…. Sucks. How about not going just by reputations and NOT putiing Robles and Colome in late innings situations? Maybe try other guys? Theilbar, Coloumbe? Anybody?

Great start! Remind me, why is Celestino up with the Twins and actually playing?

We talked about this 3-4 weeks ago and I said keep him in Minnesota unless he has a bad 3-4 week stretch. Well, he's had the bad 3-4 week stretch. It might make sense to send him down for a couple of weeks with an eye towards bringing him back in late August, early September. Contreras or Refsnyder can replace him for now and Rooker can get more innings in the field to see if can improve enough to be a better OF than Sano was a few years ago. larnach needs to work through some things, like always taking the first pitch fastball strike and almost always getting 2 strikes, and an inability to hit the low breaking ball. I am concerned that his failure may become wearing and destroy his confidence. He's up a year earlier than expected so these troubles are no big surprise. Let him work things out in a lower pressure environment knowing that he'll be back and is still in the team's long term plans.

I completely agree that he should get some MLB at bats. I would prefer they started sooner rather than later though. If we trade Donaldson, I would advocate bringing up Miranda and giving he 3-4 days a week to get his feet wet starting in early August. If not, I agree that we should wait until September. The reason for the difference is that absent Donaldson, the Twins have more of a need for him next year so we have more of a need to see what he can do for a longer period. Assumedly Arraez will move to 3B if Donaldson is traded and it's hard to project more than 100-120 games a year for Arraez given his knee issues unless he spends some time as the DH. We will need a 3B to play at least 40-60 games next year if Donaldson is gone and I for one would prefer that Sano not be that guy.

I would love to see the Twins get May and either Lux, Peipot or Gray for Berrios. I would even throw in Robles to "help" the Dodgers bullpen. If they want Berrios and Rogers, we need to get back May, plus Lux, Gray or Gonsolin, and a solid relief prospect like Bruihl or Jackson. A starting pitcher, starting SS and decent upside MiLB pitcher.

Good thing we sent Donaldson on Garver's double. Sano and Cave acting like ...well, Sano and Cave. I would have bet that Sano would strike out but I'm sure no one would take the bet. He's getting hard to watch again.

I agree. Why Cave? Seems like he isn't part of the future. Give those ABs to... well.... Gordon? Refsnyder? Choices aren't real great....

Well, no one can say we aren't giving Rooker a chance to show if he can hit in the big leagues. He's batting second again. Hope he catches fire or he'll just be a clog in the wrong spot.

I agree with everyone that it’s very hard to evaluate the FO without knowing more about offers going back-and-forth. Having said that, I do think the reported offer to Buxton was pretty low. I think Lavell Neal of all people pegged it right when he said we should offer Buxton $15m a year for 4 to 6 years with escalators that get him to $20 million if he stays healthy and performs. That’s still may be a little less than he could get on the open market but I think would be a very competitive offer. With respect to Berrios, I do think the market is relatively clear. If he remains healthy, pitches as he is pitching now, and becomes a free agent after next season he will get a contract in excess of $20 million a year, probably at or approaching $25 million a year. If that is not something we are willing to pay, and frankly I think we should be willing to pay that because I do think it’s the price for it a solid to strong number to starter, then we should trade him now. The logical Suitor is the Dodgers given their pitching problems (I don’t think Trevor Bauer will pitch another inning for LA, He’s not well liked in the clubhouse and the Dodgers don’t put up with this kind of stuff), and they have pitching to trade that is either already in the major leagues or right at the cusp. They also have a shortstop in Gavin Lux who is redundant if they resign Seager because Seager is better than Lux. I think the Dodgers are going to use the present situation to try to void Bauer’s contract and that frees up money to resign Seger and then, a year from now, give Berrios the kind of money he wants. So I guess my answer to the question presented is if the FO gives Buxton and Berrios market value offers and they turn them down, then they will be judged on what kind of trade return back they get. If they can’t get a good return and don’t sign these guys, then they should be fired. Also, if they keep making below market offers then I think it’s fair for them to be fired because that means that they are either out of touch with the market, ownership is just not willing to play in the big leagues, or we have to go to a different philosophy Where we develop talent, try to sign guys to team friendly contracts early, and lose everybody else that’s any good. I don’t like that option.

Wow, was that ugly. So many questions, so few positive answers. Kepler getting back to playable? Maybe, trend is up. Sano getting back to playable? HARD NO. IF we have to play him to see what he can do, at least hit him 7th or 8th for Goodness sakes. Rooker an MLB quality bat? The magic 8 Ball says, "Looks Unlikely". Alcala a MLB quality set up man? Sure doesn't look like it. Cave, better now that his back is better? Nope, same old guy. Gordon? Ahhhhh, maybe? Ober looked decent, Colome half decent, The rest? Not good. Maybe some roster changes coming like really soon? One would hope so. Alcala down to figure things out in AAA, Hamilton up. Robles, Theilbar, Colome gone (hopefully in trades for A ball types), Cano, Vasquez, Moran up. Astudillo down, Miranda up to play 3B when Donaldson is he DH. Celestino down (he just isn't ready to hit at the MLB level), Refsnyder or Contreras up. Hell, bring up Ernie de la Trinidad instead of Celestino if we don't like Refsnyder or Contreras. Trade Simmons, Pineda and Happ, bring up Winder, Barnes (he earned it with his start), and Jax. Maybe go to a 6 man rotation or piggy back the 5th spot with Barnes and Jax sharing the game since we don't like giving either of those guys more than 4, maaaaaaybe 5 innings a start. Garver plays 6 days a week, 3 at catcher, 2 at 1B, 1 at DH, Jeffers catches the rest of the games including those facing LH starters. This is hard to watch. Necessary, but still hard to watch. Don't put yourself in between - commit to the "rebuild on the fly", call up and play the young "talent", and see what you have. Don't go down the tubes playing guys like Simmons, Astudillo, Cave, or even Sano. Those guys aren't going to help us next year.

Looks like they've activated Garver from the paternity list and optioned Rortvedt back to AAA.

His 20 day max for a rehab assignment has to be coming up soon. He went on his rehab assignment July 13, so he has about 10 days left I guess.