LA Vikes Fan

The Royals! They’re…, not good.

The movable object meets the resistible force tonight! Scalpers dream.

We do have some decent short term pieces to trade in Robles, Simmons, Happ, and even Cruz. I think what teams are waiting on is to see whether the Twins will trade what they really want - Berrios, Buxton and Rogers. Other teams are going to want to be sure those three are not available before they pivot to the short term veterans typically trade at the trade deadline. My view is you keep the three main pieces and try to sign them over the winter before you even consider a trade unless you are overwhelmed with an offer that includes MLB ready players with significant upside. The veterans are worth trading since they are unlikely to be here next year, with the possible exception of Cruz. I would also really seriously consider trading Donaldson, not because of the return as much as because of the money it would free up to hopefully help sign the three guys we really want to keep.

I will at least be consistent - trade Donaldson and use every cent of the savings to sign Berrios. The return is basically irrelevant; the point is to free up payroll for the player we need to keep the most.

I think we're stuck watching Sano create a breeze at least for the rest of this year and next. No one will take him because of his contract and I don't think any team will give us anything of substance for him even if we eat the contract. He is like the overpaid NFL player on the team up against the salary cap. Everyone knows your only choices are to keep him and play him or cut him and pay his salary with all the other teams able to pick him up for basically nothing. I think there may be a team or two (Miami with Rowson?) that would be willing to take a shot at unlocking his potential but not if they have to give up a prospect or pay any money to do it. Why not? Because they can just sit back and wait to see if we cut him, and they can have a basically free shot at unlocking that potential. The Twins aren't going to cut him and eat his contract, especially since it's possible he would go somewhere else and actually perform in the manner his talent dictates he should perform, thus making the team look really bad. We're stuck with Sano unless there's a team out there really salivating over the prospect of turning him around and even then we probably have to take back a similarly bad contract/player in a trade. All of the options with Sano are equally hideous. He is likely to be around for the foreseeable future.

Well, that was ugly. An ugly end to an ugly series. And now it is officially over. Nothing left for us to do but debate the extent of the necessary housecleaning, who should get a shot, and who's head should roll as result of all this. The good news is that we all have Twins Daily to debate these and other critical topics. That will be my primary source of Twins entertainment for the rest of the season. It sure won't be the team.

I get that, and even more so if we trade Happ and/or Pineda. I suspect the way things are going that were going to have multiple opportunities to give guys like Ober, Winder, Jax, etc. a chance to get some starts in. I just question whether Maeda is going to be an every fifth day starter long-term. The Dodgers concluded he was not and used him in kind of a hybrid role. I think that's where the Twins should go but I can see that given our present situation it's probably better to look at that next season rather than this year.

Extremely well said. My proposal is no guarantee of success, particularly in the short term. What I think is that 3 things have become pretty clear. First, the team as presently constructed is not good enough to contend. This year isn't just because of injuries, off years, etc., it's because we aren't good enough talent wise. Second, we have some talent in the pipeline to help but we don't know enough about what we have on the pitching side to understand our medium or long term needs. Third, re-signing Berrios, Buxton and/or Rogers is a big key to deciding if we need a shorter term re-load or a longer term tear down and rebuild. My view is that this year is essentially a throw away and should be used to evaluate prospects. We're doing a good job with that for Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon, Ober; need to add 4-5 more starting and relief pitchers to that list, plus Miranda. The upside is that trading vets allows us to do that and opens up the possibility of financial flexibility to sign our own and other FAs in the offseason to fill holes. The downside is that if you think this year's team is bad now, wait until the vets are gone. It's going to be worse and might be a lot worse. I think it's worth that short term pain for the potential medium and long term gain. I don't see that it really matters if we win 60-70 games or 70-80 games this year. Both are non-competitive. What I really don't want to see is us fielding a veteran non-competitive team and THEN deciding to start over with younger players on the way up ( or at least that's the hope). All we've then done is waste time because that locks us into a non-competitive team in 2022 and maybe even 2023. A few wins this year isn't worth that. We have a chance to turn this year's lemon into lemonade by using this season to develop guys. The lemonade may not taste good this year (probably won't), but there's a better chance it will be palatable in 2022, 2023 and beyond if we use this as a developmental year and try really hard to sign the 3 internal free agents who can actually make a real difference on the field ( in Buxton's case, when's he actually there). That's where I start.

I agree with this entirely. I’ve said on other posts that the most important decision is to decide whether or not you can re-sign Berrios and Buxton for something that makes sense. Having said that, I would be willing to do a slight overpay for both because I think they are the two most critical pieces on the roster if we want to be contenders in the next 2 to 4 years. I think the alternative if you can’t re-sign those two is to go with the tear down and rebuild route. I think what I outlined still makes sense if you go for the tear down and rebuild except that you probably trade Rogers since he should bring a good return and will be older by the time you’re ready to contend again. Same goes double for Nelson Cruz. I think the rest of it works regardless of whether this is a reload or a rebuild. With all of that said, I don’t think this month is the time you have to make that decision unless you find out for sure that re-signing those two is just not going to be an option. I think the better time to make the trade is in the off-season anyway because I think we will get a better return and that gives us time to actually try to negotiate the deal. I do agree though, that before the start of next season you need to have a firm decision made on resigning Berrios, Buxton and Rodgers.

You're right about that although it does save the remainder if their salary for the season (except for Shoemaker). Hopefully that will help ownership commit the dollars necessary to keep Berrios, Buxton and Rogers for the next 3 years. To ge clear, my approach would be to trade these guys, use the Donaldson/Kepler money to sign Berrios (20-23m) and part of Buxton (the remaining 7-10m). We then promote internally rather than use FA to fill out next year, and use the FA/last year money we spent for this year (roughly $36 between Simmons, Pineda, Happ, Colome, and Robles) for the rest of Buxton (10-13m), and Rogers (8/9m). That should leave 14-17m for a mid-rotation FA starting pitcher and keep payroll flat. Increase payroll by 12m and we can keep Cruz, which I would like to do to stabilize the lineup. Internally, Gordon, Arraez, Polanco, and Miranda cover the middle infield and 3B, Larnach, Buxton, Kiriloff, Refsnyder, and a now minor leaguer (Celestino or de la Trinidad) the OF, Sano/Garver 1B, Jeffers/Garver/Rotvedt C. Hamilton/Cano/Moran/Vasquez/Stashak/Thorpe/Smeltzer fill out the bullpen behind the 4 we keep. The rotation still is an issue with Berrios, Maeda, 14-18m FA, followed by some combination of Dobnak, Ober, Jax, Duran, Winder, Sands, Smeltzer and Thorpe. Frankly, I think thats a better team than the current one for the same price, and one thats more fun to watch. And that assumes the trades don’t get us a MLB ready prospect. My view is that engaging in a significant sell off of veteran talent by August 1 does not have to mean a complete rebuild next year. If we follow this kind of a blueprint, we can still field the competitive team next year with a good future beyond next year. The rest of this year will be pretty painful to watch But at least we can use the latter half of the season as development time to give us a running start toward 2022 and 2023.

I’ve been saying to re-sign Rogers, but I might change my mind if any of those packages really are available.

Poll question: whi looks worse tonight? Vanderbilt, the Clippers, or the Twins?

I think we sell but not because of the chances of a great return. It ain't happening. We sell to free up payroll that we use to re-sign Berrios and Buxton. That’s why we sell. Keeping guys because we aren’t going to get a great return is the height of short term thinking. Gone - Donaldson, Happ, Simmons,Colome, probably Kepler. Hope to get something but probably not. Doesnt really matter. Gone if we can get a bag of baseballs (DFA) - Shoemaker. I’d like to keep Cruz for next year since he isn’t likely to bring much. Use the money to sign Berrios, Buxton, and/or Rogers.

Well, I hereby lose with my last shred of hope for this season.

I’m from LA and I remember how the Dodgers used to use Maeda. He would start out in the rotation and then about August they were switch him to to be an eighth inning set up man in the bullpen. He was very effective that way. The book on him was he had about 130-150 good innings per year, not enough to be a full-time starter but more than you need from a reliever. I personally think the season is over for the standpoint of contending. I would advocate putting Maeda in the bullpen after the All-Star break and giving his starts to Winder. Good way to both evaluate Winder, save Maeda if you want him to start next year, and evaluate him as a reliever. This year is all about evaluation for next year. This may hurt him with some incentives so restructure his contract a little.

I like this idea too. The one caveat is that we may want to free up a spot for Jose Miranda if this year is for real. Maybe a combination of the two? Backloaded contracts for Berrios in Buxton, trade Donaldson, and use the Donaldson money For another good starting pitcher? I’m good with either scenario as long as we keep Berrios and Buxton.. I think that’s the critical piece.

It’s very good to see Winder and Miranda moved up to AAA. I would really like to see Winder get five or six starts at the MLB level this year and Miranda get 100-150 at bats. Let’s see if one or both can help us in 2022 or if they need more time and 2023 or 2024 is a more realistic timeframe. There should be some opportunities for both after the trade deadline assuming we move a veteran or two. I’m a little surprised that neither Andrew Vazquez or Ian Hamilton has gotten an opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen with the Twins yet this year. Both seem very dominant this year in AAA and I believe both are around 27 so now is really the time to find out what they can do. Again, this may just need to wait until the second half of the season but it sure seems to me that both those two guys should get at least 6-8 weeks of time in the Twins bullpen this year to see if they can be part of that pen next year. There certainly will be a need for bullpen depth next year and this year would be a great time to find out if these two guys can be part of that depth.

If John Bonnes is right we have $35-40m to spend next year. Step 1 - trade Donaldson. The return is irrelevant; the payroll savings is what we need. Frees up $21.75m in 2022 and $16m in 2023, with $8m buyout. Trade Kepler, same rationale plus he' s losing the job to Larnach/Kiriloff anyway with de la Trinidad close behind. Corner OFs who hits .235/.318/.440 (.758) career, .200-.220/.293/.394 (.687) this year are not hard to replace or exceed at the plate. Tough to replace his glove but if we keep Buxton not as big a deal and corner OF is a hitting first position, not a fielding first position. Frees up $6.75m in 2022 and $8.5m in 2023. Total available new payroll $$ - $28.5m in 2022, $24m in 2023, more in 2023 if we exercise the buy-out. Now we have $63.5 - 68.5m to spend in 2022 assuming a flat payroll. How to spend it: Rogers - 3 years, $27m - $9m AAV ($545.5-59.5m left) Berrios - 5 years, $110m - $22m AAV ($32.5-37.5m left) Buxton - 4 years, $80m - $20m AAV ($12.5-17.5m left) Pineda - 3 years $33m - $11m AAV ($1.5-6.5m left) or Cruz - 1 year $12m (maxs out 2022, opens up 2023 with more $$ to spend). Can use remainder on a bullpen arm or send to trading team to offset Donaldson's salary. Arraez or Miranda plays 3B, Polanco and Gordon SS and 2B. Larnach/Arraez/de la Trinidad/ Refsnyder play LF, the latter 2 are 4th and 5th OFs. IF no Cruz, Sano at DH, Kiriloff at 1B. If Cruz, for one year Kiriloff in RF with Sano/Garver at 1B. The key is losing Donaldson's and Kepler's or an equivalent salary. IF we do that and IF the 4 above players want to re-sign with the Twins (the biggest IF), this is doable. Many other variations of the same concept out there. Substitute Sano ($9.5m in 2022, $14.5m in 2023) for Kepler and the 2022 savings are bigger, Substitute Polanco ($5.5m/7.5m/10.5m in 2022-24) for Kepler and they're smaller. Sano harder to trade than Kepler because of salary v. performance but bigger potential upside if he "finds it" again, Polanco bigger loss because he's just better than Kepler and the savings are smaller. The money is there if we are willing to make the hard choices. Frankly, trading Donaldson and Kepler are not hard choices for me given their performance. Time to move on so we can keep the guys we really want and need to keep.

Guys, this isn’t about whether or not Donaldson is replaceable. That’s short term thinking about this year. It’s possible we may contend this year but it sure doesn’t look very likely. The reason you trade Donaldson Is to free up payroll so that you can sign Jose Berrios or Byron Buxton for the next three or four years. It is much more important to the Twins to have one or both of those guys playing, with a Arraez, Polanco, Sano or Miranda playing third, then it is to lose one or both of those guys at the end of next year because you’re not willing to commit to another $20 million plus a year contract. That is what it’s going to take to sign Berrios at least, probably the same for Buxton. Thinking about the next 1 to 3 years, rather than just this year, leads me to the inescapable conclusion that that money is better spent keeping Berrios (Buxton if you can’t get Berrios to sign) than having Donaldson. Same logic goes for Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Michael Pineda, and Simmons. To me, the bottom line is that if the Twins think they can resign Berrios and/or Buxton and need to move an expensive contract to do so, trade Donaldson for whatever you can get for him. Move Arraez in is the every day third baseman for now and give Miranda a shot. The key to having a competitive team next year and the next two or three years there after is going to be keeping our only real front line starting pitcher, Berrios, and the one difference maker in the field, Buxton, and then build around them. I would move some combination of our players with expensive contracts that aren’t likely to be key parts of a team that contends 2022-2024 - Donaldson, Cruz, Pineda, Simmons, Kepler - and use the money to sign to guys who will have to be around for us to be contenders in the 2022 - 2024 timeframe, Berrios and Buxton. Personally, I’d like to see them keep Nelson Cruz around because he’s such a key part of the batting order and I would like them to re-sign Michael Pineda because I think he’s a solid number three or number four starter, and trade the other three. No matter what you do, I think that to have any chance of resigning Barrios or Buxton you have to be willing to commit to $20,000,000+ a year to Berrios and $15-$20 million a year to Buxton (and those numbers be low). The path to success for the Twins Is to the anchor of the team around 3-5 “veteran” established players and surround them with younger guys on the way up. Your best chance to do that is to have two of those core guys be Berrios and Buxton, or at least Berrios, along with Maeda, Rogers and Polanco. Signing Berrios and Buxton is really the key to us contending over the next few years. Trading Donaldson is a good way to free up the money to try to sign those guys (same logic for Cruz, Pineda, Kepler, Simmons). To me, that’s why you trade Donaldson.

Hiw about a timeline for Refsnyder? I’d much rather see him in CF than Celestino. Nice kid, good glove, bat just isn't MLB ready. A Refsnyder/Kepler CF would be a step up.

Baseball is in trouble. Much as I know this will offend the purists, they need to do at least a couple of things to increase offense. First, ban the infield shift. Bring the ground ball single back into the game and increase the number of guys on base. This will reward players who put the ball in play and hopefully help balance offenses a little bit away from the three true outcomes guys. Second, lower the mound a little. The pitchers are ahead of the hitters. Third, cut down on the time in between innings by cutting back on the TV commercials. Shoot for most games ending in between two hours 30 minutes and 2 hours 45 minutes, not three hours and 3 1/2 hours. All of this will help improve the office and hopefully make the game more quickly with more action.

As one of the people advocating trading five or six guys, I agree with you that the returns are likely to be underwhelming. I think we can get a decent prospect or two for a healthy Pineda, maybe a decent one at the A level for Robles, same for Simmons. Cruz is hard to gauge because of the limited market so I’m not sure if he would get us a decent prospect or more like two middle of the road guys. Happ Is more of a salary dump unless he rips off three or four strong starts in a row over the next month. Donaldson is most definitely a salary dump and we will have to probably package $5 million a year in salary with him to get any kind of possible prospect because of that contract. Kepler could net us a prospect with upside, but also with risks because even his “team friendly” contract is too much for his level of production. I would still make every single one of those trades because getting a return is not the cake, It is the icing on top of the cake. The cake is (1) freeing up payroll so that we can make very competitive offers for Berrios and Buxton over the off-season, and (2) freeing up playing time now for young guys so they can develop and possibly help us as early as 2022 and be really ready in 2023. The guys I want to trade are unlikely to help us with our next competitive team, with the possible exception of a re-signed Pineda or Robles. I actually think Miguel Sano has the best chance of all of them to beI a contributing member of our next contending team so I would keep him. The overriding, primary point of the rest of the season is to develop younger players who seem to be at or close to the MLB level and determining what we think we have short and long-term, so that we can make intelligent decisions in the off-season to sign our own players or free agents to fill the actual holes. Keeping players around this year so we can win closer to 80 games rather than closer to 70 games Is, in my view, the height of folly. This year is a retool/rebuild year with an eye towards a possible contention in 2022 and probable contention in 2023. This is not what any of us expected and it’s not what any of us wanted for the season. However, it’s what we have and we need to move forward accordingly. We need to take a look at the players we have, determine who is likely to be the internal starters next year and the two years there after, determine if they’re good enough to contend, and make sure we have the necessary payroll to sign our important existing players and free agents to fill in where necessary. We’ve actually gotten off to a good start in that regard with moves made this year promoting players. Let’s not do this halfway, let’s complete the job.

I think your ideas are very interesting, but I have to balk at your thought assumption not to resign Berrios or Buxton. I think we should resign one or both and use the money saved from trading Cruz , Donaldson, Simmons, and Kepler to pay for it. I would definitely trade Simmons and live this year with Polanco and Gordon at short to see if that can be a long-term solution. If not, we have to get a shortstop in the off-season. Same with Pineda and Robles, trade them both and then try to re-sign them in the off-season if we can and we think we need them. The same goes for Theilbar. He’s breathing, left-handed, doing decently, and might get us a prospect. I would also get a Refsnyder an audition in the outfield to see if he can be a stopgap starter/4th outfielder for next year or whether what we’ve seen so far was just a mirage. Also, it’s the wrong time to trade Sano or to DFA Shoemaker. No one will take Sano’s contract and Shoemaker may turn into a decent relief pitcher if we transition him this year. Everyday starters for the rest of the season: 1B Kirilloff, 2B /SS Gordon/Polanco, 3B Arraez/Miranda, LF Larnach, CF Refsnyder,/Buxton, RF Refsnyder/Rooker/Trinidad, C Jeffers/Garver, DH Sano/Garver. Gone: Cruz, Simmons, Donaldson, Kepler, Garlick. Rotation rest of the season: Berrios, Maeda, Dobnak, Ober, Jax/Barnes/Winder/Duran. Gone: Happ, Pineda. Bullpen Rest of the season: Rogers, Duffy, Alcala, Colome, Shoemaker, Cano/Moran/ Ian Hamilton/Andrew Vazquez/ Burrows/Thorpe. Gone: Robles, Theilbar. You can’t get anything for Colome or Shoemaker so let’s see if we can turn them into something in the second half that would be useful in 2022. There will be plenty of opportunities for the young guys through injuries, trade out for fresh arms, etc. Thanks for starting this. Should be an interesting thought experiment.

I did forget about Ober, so maybe the plan is for him to start Monday in Chicago, Berrios Tuesday, and come back to Jax on Wednesday.

Interesting. I guess it depends a little bit on who starts Monday. I have this uneasy feeling that Shoemaker will wind up making the start on Monday because of the lack of anyone else. If you subtract him from the bullpen equation, we’re pretty light going into the weekend games. That’s why I was thinking that either Jax or Coloumbe would be sent back down for a fresh arm.