LA Vikes Fan

Any roster moves today? You gotta figure that Jax is used up for the next 4 days so he should be on the shuttle back to Saint Paul to be replaced by a “fresh“ relief arm. Perhaps the same for Coloumbe. May be a chance for Ian Hamilton, Andrew Vazquez, or someone like that to come up?

Two thoughts. Replace Simmons with Gordon until he shows you he can’t play shortstop and then move over Polanco. I’ve been advocating on other threads to trade Josh Donaldson even if it’s just a salary dump and includes money, and that would create a place for Arraez to start every day. Regardless, it’s a developmental year so let’s play Gordon at shortstop for 30-40 games and see if he can play the spot. We need to know. Next, why trade Robles? Let’s re-sign him for something like two years/$6 -$9 million. He’s not going to fetch a huge return and frankly is more valuable to us as a quality bullpen arm than he’s likely to be to anybody else. Keep him and between Rogers, Robles, Alcala, and Duffy, we actually have the outlines of a decent back end of a bullpen. Trade Cruz, Donaldson, Simmons and, if he’s healthy enough, Pineda. Replace them with Sano/Garver/Rooker/guys getting the day off in the field, Arraez, Gordon, and Barnes/Winder/Duran, respectively. Trade Happ if you can find a taker. Keep Colome In the hope that he rebounds to what he used to be since he has an option at the end of his contract and we aren’t going anywhere anyway, and it doesn’t look like he’s blocking anybody. Trade Kepler if the return is there. Get some relief innings for Cano, Ian Hamilton, Andrew Vasquez, and Moran in the second half. The rest of this year could be fun and productive if we get with the program and develop our guys/evaluate talent. Let’s get this party started!

While any player is certainly tradable for the right deal, I would keep Arraez unless we are blown away by some offer. I do see the upcoming middle infield backlog what effectively three second baseman - Polanco, Gordon and Arraez - None of whom appear to be a high-quality starting every day shortstop. I would like to create a way for Arraez to play basically every day to keep his bat in the lineup. I think the answer is simple - trade Donaldson. I don’t think you do that because of the great haul we’re going to get for him, I don’t think it’s there, but we dump his contract and that of Cruz and maybe Kepler so that we can use the money to sign Berrios, Rogers and/or Buxton long-term. If we trade Donaldson, Arraez and Polanco man second and third with Gordon as the infield/outfield utility guy. What about Miranda, you say? Well, he’s been in the minors for a while, wasn’t added to the 40 man roster last winter, and didn’t get drafted by anybody. He’s having a great year this year in AA, so let’s bring him up and see where he is on the development path. He may be ready in a year or two and we will have to find a spot for him on the 40 man roster, another good reason to trade Donaldson. If Miranda comes up and beats out Arraez for the third base job, we can always trade Arraez at that point. The bottom line is that we do have a bit of an infield crunch with a lot of guys who can’t play shortstop. I don’t think the way to solve that is to trade a productive, very cost controlled player like Arraez. I do think the idea that we’re going to get a top 100 prospect, or even a organizations’s top 20 prospect in return is a bit of a fantasy. I think the better move is to trade the under productive, more expensive player like Donaldson even if the trade is effectively a salary dump. I think it does two great things, (1) Keeps the younger player whose timeline is with the developing guys around, and (2) frees up money to try to sign Berrios, Buxton and/or Rogers.

I think the decision on Berrios is actually pretty easy. Lance McCullers got five years, $85 million. Berrios is a significantly better investment both in terms of quality and then likely longevity given his work ethic and past performance. He is clearly worth a five-year/$100, million type contract and might be worth more. The Twins could stagger the payment so that his salary went up significantly after Donelson comes off the books. Quality top of rotation starting pitching is the hardest thing to develop and the hardest thing to find. Even if Berrios is only really a number 2 starter, and I think he might develop into a true number one still, he is worth the money. He is the guy I will try the hardest to sign. Buxton is the much harder case because of his injury history and the fact that until this year he’s really never shown he could consistently hit major-league pitching at a high level. However, if he really is what we’ve seen this year when he’s played he will command $20-$25 million a year on the market although that will probably come with some strings in the form of a games played incentive. I would love to see the Twins be the team that signed him to that contract but I do recognize that our resources are not unlimited. I do think there is a way to sign them both without straining the budget if we are willing to make a couple of hard decisions. First, we need to know we can sign them to these contracts. Then, we need to offload some payroll. The candidates are obvious. Trade Cruz for pitching prospect(s), and replace him with a combination of Sano, Garver, Rooker and off day starters. Makes the team weaker in the short run but frankly all we’re ever going to get from Cruz is the short run. Trade Donaldson Without sending much money even if it means getting a lower return. This is a salary dump to sign the other two guys so you have to know you can sign the other two guys before you do this. Replace him with Arraez as the every day third baseman, with Gordon and Miranda coming up behind. Then, if you have to to make the numbers work, trade Kepler. The combination of Larnach and Kirilloff can handle the corner outfield spots, with Sano and Garver handling first base, or Kiriloff can be moved to first base with Rooker/Refsnyder/Garlick being the other corner outfielder. By doing this you free roughly $40 million a year off the current payroll which you then give to Berrios and Buxton to sign them long-term. We don’t have a lot of other long-term big money commitments coming up since Larnach and Kiriloff are very early in their careers. Same for Arraez, who also probably won’t ever command huge money. The big negative is this approach would hamstring us from signing big money free agents for the pitching staff but I frankly don’t think we’re going to do that anyway. I would advocate for giving Rogers three years/$20 million, giving Robles two years/$6-8 million and filling in from there. We have Duffy and Alcala in their less expensive years still, so we’re only looking to fill 3 to 4 other spots. We stunk at it this year but have been successful and others. This team doesn’t have the payroll to be filled with strong, established players in all areas.

I like them both, but I think they’re just different kinds of hitters. Kirilloff is much more in the Hrbek mode, a high contact hitter with some power but more doubles power than home run power and a quality glove at first base. Larnach has more plate discipline with more power but wont hit for as high an average. I could see Kiriloff consistently hitting .280+ or even .300+ with 20 to 25 home runs a year. I see Larnach as more a .260-.280 hitter who walks more, and hits 30+ home runs a year. I would love to see a future lineup with Buxton hitting second, Kiriloff third, a solid right handed hitter hitting fourth ( Cruz now, Donaldson after Cruz is traded?), and Larnach fifth. As to the poster who suggested that Larnach’s ceiling might be Kepler, I hope to God you’re wrong. Frankly, I think Kirilloff and Larnach are both already better than Kepler are at the plate. A lot better. Kepler is definitely a better fielder but apparently they don’t want to put him in centerfield so that really limits his value. I think it will be interesting decision as to whether Kirilloff stays at first base because if he does, there’s a place in right field for guy like Kepler to keep his glove in the lineup hitting sixth or seventh where he belongs. If not, he probably goes to the Bench as the fourth outfielder.

I completely agree. Let’s put Gordon in Center until Refsnyder is ready to come back and see if he can handle the position. That’s exactly what kind of thing we need to know for next year. Celestino seems like a nice fielder, but his bat is not ready for the MLB level. He will need some time in AAA before he can be back up centerfielder or replace Buxton.

I think Rodgers falls into the same category as Berrios or Buxton. I think the twins need to first see if they can sign him to a longer-term deal. He can be a core part of a championship team‘s bullpen. If they can’t, trade Him at the deadline but only if you are completely overwhelmed. The better market tends to be in the off-season and that also gives you a chance for one last attempt to re-sign him. My personal prediction is there will be a lot of talk, rumors, etc. about Berrios, Buxton and Rogers but none of them will be traded at the deadline.

I don’t think this is that hard. Kepler starts in right field as part of a platoon with Refsnyder/Garlick until he loses the position, which will probably occur in the next year or two. He’s then the 4th OF. Love the defense, but he simply doesn’t hit well enough to be a regular every day starting corner outfielder on a contending team. That stinks to say, but it is the reality. I think Kirilloff will play first base and I think Sano will be gone or moved to DH. I have read that the Twins tried to trade Sano this year already but could not find a taker for his contract. Whether or not that is true, He is 29 years old and is unlikely to consistently be what he has shown in flashes. He is the odd man out.

I think optioning Astudillo was the right call, because it shows the organization is committed to using this year as a development/retooling year. While I love his versatility and personality, having him on the team would take away at bats from guys like Gordon, Rortvedt, and Jeffers. We need to evaluate those guys more than anything else this year so we know what we have. Same for Larnach and Kirilloff. We know what Astudillo can do, and what he can’t do, and we have him under control for next year if we need his services. Sending him to AAA is the right call if your goal this year is to evaluate your next wave of young players. Same for Shoemaker (DFA), Cave, and Garlick. Keep Refsnyder around when he’s ready. We will miss Astudillo because like my fried the mushroom he us a fun guy (fungi). Anybody? Is this thing on? I’ll see myself out.

I would accept that friendly amendment. It would have to be a huge offer to tempt me, however, particularly with respect to Berrios. The Twins don't do a good job of developing pitching so we need to hold on to what we have until it's very clear that we can't re-sign him.

The path forward is clear now and frankly has been for the last month or so. This is a developmental/retooling year. What we need to learn from this year is what pieces we have and don't have and whether our focus is short term or a full rebuild is in order. I think if you start there, the steps are relatively straightforward. First, you DFA or trade the players on expiring contracts or who aren't part of the next contending team, unless you want to re-sign them now. DFA Shoemaker TODAY. Get ready to trade Cruz, Happ and Simmons. Trade Pineda if he's healthy enough to be interesting, you can always try to re-sign him in the offseason and he just isn't healthy enough for more than 20-22 starts. Demote Dobnak, he might be part of a contending team as a back end starter, you need to try to straighten him out in AAA. Colome is going to be almost impossible to trade because of his contract so we're probably stick trying to "fix" him or an August DFA. We're stuck with Donaldson and while he's overpaid, he does help us, just not as much as we'd hoped. Try to re-sign Robles and trade him if you can't. Second, bring up the troops and play them every day. Keep Larnach and Kirilloff on pace for at least 500 MLB at bats, and try to find 350-400 for Gordon. Jeffers and Rortvedt catch until Garver is back and even then should stay and get MLB experience. Ober stays in the rotation, Duran joins him after the All-Star break, and find 5-8 starts for any other starter you think has a chance to be MLB helpful next year (Winder, Sands, Barnes?). Get Hamilton, Vasquez, Moran and Cano into the bullpen at various points and try to get them 20 appearances apiece unless they stink out of the gate. Try Thorpe as a reliever when he's off the DL. Balzevic can move up to AAA in a few weeks, and then get a start or 3 in September so we don't use up a year. As for everyone else, while they've done ok, they should be moved to AAA or traded if necessary to give other guys their shot. These are the guys on the roster who are nice to have but don't move the needle much - Theilbar, Astudillo, Refsnyder, Garlick, Cave. Love Astudillo as a 26th man, both Refsnyder and Garlick are nice stories and Theilbar has been better than expected but we're talking about a 26th man/3rd catcher utility guy, 2 guys competing for the 5th or 6th OF spot, and a back of bullpen LH. They could help another team this year but they aren't part of the core of the Twins going forward ( with the possible exception of Refsnyder if this SSS is even close to what he could do off the bench). Let's use their roster spots for evaluating players. Whatever you do DO NOT trade Buxton or Berrios until the offseason. Try to keep them and then trade them only if you can't re-sign them and then only for near MLB ready starting pitching. They are part of the next contending Twins team and we need this year to figure out the horizon for that team - 2022, 2023, or are we looking at 2025 or later? The answer to that question determines how much you pay to keep them. Good times.

Hope Gordon is put in CF every day until Buxton comes back. Would really help us if he could be a multi-positional player. Gives us some speed that we desperately need and it looks like he can hit some.

Thank God Shoemaker is going to the pen. I've been advocating for this for 3 weeks. That's his only chance to stay in the Bigs; he can't stay as a starter. If Buxton isn't coming up will Gordon play CF or RF? Celestino isn't ready but Gordon may be. I'd love to see him playing every day in the OF until some of the "real" OFs come back. May as well see if he can do it and expand his usefulness to the team. Also a good way to find out if he can hit as an everyday player.

I wasn't watching the game at the end. I read the Twins 9th went single, homer, single, homer. And that they won. Please tell me this isn’t a cruel joke….or a dream

Wow, is this ugly. Let the drinking begin!

I also agree with your list of who to trade, except that I would try to keep Pineda and Rogers. I think Kepler will wind up staying because of his "team friendly" contract and the hope that there just is another gear in there somewhere, but I think he is destined to be a quality 4th outfielder on a contending team, not a starter. The rest of those guys have 0 value to the Twins after this year so trade them for what you can get and play the younger talent. It just doesn't make sense to keep these veteran guys in the hope that we could win 75 games instead of 68 games (and that probably overstates the impact). Time to retool/rebuild. Let's start today

Trading Simmons shouldn't be about what you can get for him, it should be about where you have someone younger with a possible future that you want to put into that position or, potentially, if moving someone you have opens up a spot for that younger player with a future. We are going nowhere this year so keeping around a one year rental player isn't a smart move unless we plan on also having him next year to keep the spot warm until someone else like Lewis is ready. That's the question. If we got somebody else who could benefit from the reps, trade Simmons for whatever you can get. If not, we have to seriously look at trying to keep him beyond this year because we have no one else. I would like to see Polanco and Gordon man the SS spot in the 2nd half of the season and trade Simmons for what we can get, even if its just a couple of A ball guys. I know Polanco is stretched at SS, but we did win 2 division championships with him playing that position every day. I've heard that Gordon is also stretched at SS, but I'd like to see him get the opportunity to see if he can be the bridge to someone in 2-3 years. This year is about retooling for next year so unless were planning on having Simmons as our SS for next year I think we should move him and try what we have.

While I think you are probably right that there have been at least 5 to 10 games where you can point to a lack of executing on a fundamental play as costing us the game, we would not have won all of those games by any stretch, I think again the poor fundamentals are a symptom of the problem but not the underlying disease. Let's say we win 5 more games by making a simple fundamental play, like the game in Oakland, 5 more wins would make us 29 – 32 instead of 24 – 37. Better? I guess, A move into playoff relevancy? I don't think so. The Problem is simple: we don't have enough talent. If you look at the team, even when we are at full strength we have about three quarters of the starting lineup sufficient to be a contending team, or about two thirds depending on how you count Sano. We are still at least one outfielder or and perhaps two short, and still unsettled in the middle infield and unsettled at catcher. That's giving credit to 1st base being covered by either Kirilloff or Sano. We have at most 60% of the starting rotation with the last 2 spots not covered by the combination of Happ, Dobnak and Shoemaker. The most we can hope for there is that Dobnak will somehow recover his magic and be a serviceable 5th starter in the future. The bullpen is even worse. We do not have the necessary high-end closer so everybody is stretched one spot. Rogers and Robles should be 7th and 8th inning guys, Alcala and Duffy 6th and 7th inning guys, and the rest are just filler. This bullpen could work with Colome being the elite closer but it turns out that's not what he is so the whole thing has fallen apart. The flaw is that our young core group just hasn't advanced with the possible exceptions of Polanco who has looked very good the last 30 games or so, and Rogers and Berrios on the pitching staff. Sano and Kepler do not look like starters on a contending team. Those two, Arraez and Garver are very much works in progress at best; not the finished, solid to elite hitters we all thought they were. It is much more likely that Kepler and Sano are what they have been the last 2 years, a DH/bench bat and platoon/4th outfielder respectively. So the bottom line is it's not just a few injuries that are hurting us, it's an overall lack of talent and depth coupled with the lack of progress from the young core that has killed us this year. Unfortunately, I really think the Twins are what our record says we are, a mediocre team that injuries have turned into a poor team. The big question is where we go from here. I'm actually a little encouraged by the fact that the FO and Baldelli seem to realize the situation and are giving some younger players run with Larnach and Kirilloff playing every day, and Jeffers/Rortvedt getting some real time behind the plate. I know injuries caused a lot of that, but I think that's going to happen for the rest of the season. I also think that Simmons will be traded even if all we get is a A ball lottery ticket which should free up playing time for Gordon at 2B and SS with Polanco back at SS. I really hope they do that rather than bringing up someone like JT Riddle the play short. I hope Bailey Ober is here to stay in the rotation for the rest of the season, and that Jax will get a real opportunity in the bullpen. I also hope and expect to see Duran in the rotation at some point, probably after a Pineda trade, would really like to see Andrew Vasquez get a shot in the bullpen. Frankly, I'd like to see Louis Thorpe in the bullpen after he recovers from his latest injury because he's either going to have to make it there or go somewhere else. He's just isn't good enough to be a starter. This year's a lemon. Let's make lemonade out of it by basically fielding a developmental team for the rest of the season. Trade Simmons, Cruz, Pineda, Happ and Colome for whatever we can get and give their spots to young guys on the way up. DFA Shoemaker. Frankly, trading Cruz makes it a lot easier to find at bats for Larnach, Kirilloff, Sano, Arraez, Gordon, Jeffers, Rooker, and even Refsnyder who might be the RH bat in a platoon with Kepler/4th OF. We can try to re-sign Pineda in the off-season. The rest are gone forever. I'd also say trade Donaldson but his contract probably makes that impossible. Let's just see this team for what is and try to retool this year so that we know what we can do and can't do in the off-season. Nothing else makes sense to me.

I agree with your premise - the Twins' injuries have been tough, but that isn't the main reason we are 24-36. I think the main reason is poor fundamental and situational play. We make too many errors and also don't execute simpler lays like converting ground balls into double plays and hitting cut-off men, and so we let the opponent have too many at bats. We also don't execute well on offense when it's time to move over a runner, run the bases well, etc. or hit well with RISP. We can blame a small part of that on injuries - putting Astudillo in the field is an invitation for an error, for example - but that's not the main problem We just don't execute well and don't have the talent advantage In the field or anywhere near enough pitching to overcome that problem. I don't know the answer. Maybe it's coaching, but more likely it's just the players we have. I really liked the idea of trying to improve the pitching by improving the defense but that hasn't really seemed to work. Getting Buxton back will help but not solve the problem in its entirety. We are going to continue to play at this level unless the fundamental play improves.

I think you hit it on the head- this team is what their record says they are. Time to rebuild/ reload this season woth a focus on 2022/2023. Lets not wait and see if this season will turn around; it won’t. It’s already too late. Let’s maximize the trade value of Cruz, Simmons, Happ and Shomaker, to the extent that’s even possible. Play Kirilloff, Larnach, Gordon, and Rortvedt as much as you can. Find a few starts for Duran, Jax, Ober, Winder and maybe even Caterino, opportunities for Vasquez, Cano and Sands, and at bats for Miranda. Rooker, Weil, and Celestino. Let’s see what we got. Does anyone really care if we win 70 games or 81 games? I don’t if we’re playing youth snd trying to get better.

I hate to say it, but I'm not far behind you. I guess I'm still hoping that they can jettison the guys that won't be here 2 years from now, play the young guys this year and hopefully rebound the next couple of years. That would at least be worth watching. This isn't.

I’m very split on whether to trade Berrios at all, in part because I think your AAV to sign him is low and in part because I think he has a better chance to take the next step up to solid top of the rotation starter. I agree that he’ll never be a true “ace”. I still think he’ll get a contract in the $17-20m AAV range because that’s what true #2 guys are worth today. I’d still sign him if we could because we can’t sign top end free agents so we have to keep our own if there’s a chance they can become that top end guy. Any trade has to bring back pitching, period. I like the Braves prospects the best and that gets him out of the AL.

Whether or not Rocco is the right manager for this team is a fair question given the performance so far. You do have to balance this year's underachieving performance with the last 2 years of what I think can only fairly be called overachieving performance when making that evaluation, though. I think the evidence on Rocco is mixed. Same for the coaching staff. When I don't think is mixed in the evidence regarding the pitching. Even in the better years like 2019, the pitching was never in the top 5 or 6, it was at best in the top 10 or 12. The fundamental problem is that the Twins organization has been unable to develop quality pitching through the minor league system and has developed almost no high-end, number 1 starter or lights out closer type pitching. The Twins also have been unwilling or unable to spend the kind of money it takes to get a number 1 type starter or lights out closer on the free agent market and instead has put money on veterans in the hope they can be developed into something close. That approach rarely works and, when it does, it's almost always just for a year or 2. I think the FO actually recognizes this because you can see them trying to improve the offense in order to carry what they know is at best a good but not great pitching staff and could be a mediocre to poor pitching staff, like our staff has been so far this year. The fundamental problem has been our inability to develop quality pitching that can contribute at a high level while that pitcher is still under team control. Jose Berrios is really the only starter that comes readily to mind who fits that description in recent years. This FO's was hired specifically because they came from an organization in Cleveland that was able to develop a strong pitching pipeline. They have not been able to replicate that pipeline. That's what we need for this team to really have a shot at consistent contention. Frankly, that's what we need before this team has much of a shot at even winning a playoff series.

Hey, sometimes you get lucky. We need a RH hitting 4th/5th OF that can play CF. He's ben a lot more than that so far. Even if he falls to hitting .260/.320/.440 he's worth having and fits a needed role on this team.

Thorpe may not work out in the bullpen but it's definitely worth a shot. Some guys have gotten much better with a change in role (see Perkins, Glen and Aguilera, Rick). I don't know if Thorpe will be one of those guys but it's definitely worth the experiment given that the other option would be a DFA or release unless his fortunes change as a starter. This is the perfect season to give this a try since we aren't likely going anywhere any way.