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Danchat

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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. Danchat
    Well, I guess it's time to start rooting against the Twins! Well, whomever told Hayes about Gallo was right... they had a backup plan, it just turns out to be a really bad one!
  2. Danchat
    Wow, I hate it. They've basically just re-signed Sano for too much money, except this version of him can handle himself in the outfield. The Twins have already proven that they couldn't coach strikeouts out of Sano, how are they going to do it with Gallo? If Vazquez and Gallo are the two main additions to the lineup, this is going to be a bottom 10 lineup. We lost Correa and Urshela, guys you could stick in at the #2 and #5 spots respectively, and now have a catcher to stash at #9 and a hot-and-cold bat who is going to hit #4/5 too often when he'll be better off hitting #7/8. I'd much rather be saddled with a great player on a bad contract than scrounge for scraps, and at a bad price. Feels like Logan Morrison all over again! Maybe CJ Cron if we're lucky. Hopefully a terrible move like this and the Pagan one ensures that this front office gets sacked by the end of the year.
  3. Danchat
    I love this meme, it’s an annual tradition. Fans: “They’re not going to spend more than they did last year, they won’t sign any FAs” - then suddenly they sign Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, Lance Lynn and they set a new record of payroll. Happens every year but some just don’t seem to realize it. This approach isn’t exactly leading to any more wins, but they’re going to sign more players. That isn’t up for debate.
  4. Danchat
    As much as I would hate this, it would be logical to move Arraez when his value is the highest. The one thing the front office did right last year was move some players while their stock was high (Garver and Rogers). The problem is, I just don't trust our FO to identify the right pitcher to move Arraez for. We don't need another injury prone or #3-like starter. And this team is going to be a lot less fun to watch, they were already a mostly dull team to watch in 2022, and would be bottom tier without Correa and Arraez (obviously they'll spend money elsewhere, but my point stands).
  5. Danchat
    We'll have to get confirmation, but I'm pretty sure they protected Legumina since they knew they were likely to move him. I don't view him as much of a prospect, certainly not a top 30 guy. Farmer makes sense as a backup to whomever we sign to play SS, instead of moving Polanco back to SS as the primary backup plan.
  6. Danchat
    Agreed, I wouldn't lose a second of sleep if we lost Severino or Sisk.
  7. Danchat
    Feels like every year there is one surprise who gets protected, Legumina certainly profiles as that. I don't see the need to protect him, as I doubt teams would care much about a 26 year old reliever in AA. I think Severino is the most likely to be claimed. I could see Helman or one of the relievers get claimed, but I don't think they have a ton of upside. Urbina is too raw and hasn't shown enough at this point to be claimed.
  8. Danchat
    He was one of the worst relievers in baseball in the second half, so bad that the Brewers demoted him to low leverage innings. There is a lot of downside here. I would guess the Twins don’t want to pay him, which is part of the reason why they moved him… but seeing how both SD and MIL ended up demoting him, I’d only bring him back on a prove-it deal. MLBT thinks he gets 3/$30M… no thanks.
  9. Danchat
    How about we all chip in $10 and see where that gets us? ?
  10. Danchat
    I get the praise for Julien, I think he will be a MLB-caliber hitter, but Martin has a long ways to go to prove he belongs. I find it hard to ignore how poorly he was playing at points in his second go-around at AA. IIRC Celestino did the same thing last year, bad 4 months then got hit late… turned out his bat wasn’t MLB ready in 2022. Let’s see Martin hit .300 at AAA for at least a month and then we’ll talk.
  11. Danchat
    No, it's not bad luck that the Twins didn't land Darvish or Wheeler. On both fronts it was reported that the Twins' best offers were $20M shy of what they got with the years being the same. Their MO is to sign one year deals and more recently trade for starters, so I'd expect more of that in 2023.
  12. Danchat
    $34M value the past two years, seriously? His defense is good and he takes a lot of walks, but he was atrocious at the plate for long stretches of time, lost most of his HR power, and kept hitting into the shift. I had high expectations for Max and he's been a perennial disappointment since 2019. If a team is high on him and offers a substantial package I'd move him, but I would expect they hold onto him for one more year. Perhaps his numbers improve with the shift limitations, but he will be another year out of his prime too.
  13. Danchat
    I could see Julien starting the first couple months in AAA and get a chance in May/June, similarly to how Miranda got his chance. With this lineup's durability, there will be an opening for him sooner than later.
  14. Danchat
    I could see Kepler winning it, but Arraez is a 'heck no', and Correa is a probably not.
  15. Danchat
    Our hitters have traditionally done fairly well in the minors, but man we just didn't have anything good for pitching prospects. Gonsalves and Thorpe never had the stuff to succeed in the majors, while Romero did but just didn't pan out. That turns out to be one legit MLB player in the top 14 (Gordon, with Kirilloff potentially but not yet), but some very strong results for 15-30.
  16. Danchat
    Rogers was perhaps the best reliever in baseball the first two months (1.64 ERA .454 OPS against), but then was horrific the next two months (8.14 ERA .890 OPS against) and then was plain bad for the Brewers (5.48 ERA, .845 OPS against). Enough for them to remove him from high leverage situations by the end of the year. I count 10 blown saves and 8 losses (there is overlap between those two stats). As bad as Pagan? No because of the first 2 months, but it was easily the worst season of his career. The Twins may have been right to trade him while his value was high, but of course they had to choose Paddack to be the centerpiece of the trade.
  17. Danchat
    I just don't foresee them getting good injury luck next year. They simply have too many brittle players, too many hitters who immediately go into the tank upon suffering a minor injury and too many pitchers who already have red-flagged injury histories or are potentially suffering from the optimization that our pitching staff had them go through to get their MPH as high as possible. Absolutely, plenty exist right now. The Rays practically worship analytics and usually field a strong defense. I think the problem is more related to coaching and to the front office's focus on signing/drafting bat-first players and not focusing on the fundamentals in the minor leagues.
  18. Danchat
    A hot finish is nice, but I don't think Martin is that good of a prospect now that we've got a larger sample size on him. He's supposedly a bat-first prospect who will mostly slap singles and draw walks, and defensively can't handle SS despite being given every chance to stick there... so he'll probably play in the outfield and have the speed for it, but his inexperience there could make it a slower transition. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but I can't say I have any confidence here. We talked last year about how hot Celestino finished the year in the minors despite a very poor first 4 months, and now he's sporting a .620 OPS in the majors.
  19. Danchat
    I’m pretty sure his RBIs are low because he hits lead off most the time, but I don’t have the stats to confirm that.
  20. Danchat
    That’s absolutely worth $10M, we are way better with him in the lineup compared to the alternatives. But 7 more years of this… he’s going to miss more and more time.
  21. Danchat
    Rocco's version? There is no way the front office is letting him run his own version of analytics, it's clear to me that he's executing their plan, as if they weren't happy with what he was doing, they would force him to change it up... similar to how Molitor got the can, with one of the reasons being letting his starters stay in too long (in their eyes). Exactly, this is a Falvine problem, not just a Rocco one. Having the current front office hire a new manager is likely going to have them find another analytics-driven manager, which I'm sure everyone would be stoked about! And the problem is that Rocco may not be allowed to sent him out there more than 70 pitches, especially with how Ober's innings were managed last year.
  22. Danchat
    What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.
  23. Danchat
    Hasn't Arraez graded well defensively at 1B? I'll pass on Hosmer, he's a below average bat for a 1B and getting old, and he does not have 16 HRs, he's at 8 and hasn't hit at least 16 since 2019... veteran prescence is nice, but it hasn't helped the Red Sox (he's hitting .611 OPS for them and injured now). So you'd rather the Pohlads sit on the money? It's not like we've lost many/any significant internal free agents in recent years.
  24. Danchat
    I was hoping they would prove that the 2021 was a fluke - I didn't expect any success in the playoffs, but if I were to know how bad this division was ahead of time, I would have expected us to win it. The initial promise was 'sustained competitivity', and I don't feel like that has been attained. We've gone off the rails since a successful 2019-20 stretch, and even during then this team wasn't competitive at all in the playoffs. It feels like we're miles from being our 2019 squad, which already wasn't good enough.
  25. Danchat
    Paddack not pitching in 2023 is the most likely result, though it's worth noting that athletes can return from an ACL tear in around 9-10 months, so I wouldn't rule out Lewis being good to go by some point in the first half of the year. I just have no hope long-term that this team will be able to avoid injuries - both the hitters and pitchers have been constantly plagued by it the past couple years and the minor league system isn't faring a whole lot better.
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