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Danchat

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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. Danchat
    Rule 5 pitchers are used as relievers basically 100% of the time, at least in their first year in the majors. Teams will be looking for prospects with a high ceiling, usually guys in the team's #10-30 prospect range. Mason is a fringe arm that other teams likely have their own version in their organizations, Hamilton was pitching in the majors in 2018 and has been DFA'd several times, which rules him out as a "prospect" in my book. Last year we lost Baddoo and Wells, two guys who were easily in our Top 30 prospects if not 20. Hamilton and Mason are not close to that... right now I would be more concerned about Severino and Vallimont going unprotected.
  2. Danchat
    I would say slim to none, Hamilton was available on waivers multiple times last year, and Mason is a low end prospect, maybe a top 50 guy (on the Twins). Teams are going to be looking for higher upside guys in the Rule 5 draft and can do better than these two.
  3. Danchat
    The answer to your question is A) Absolutely Nothing. End of story. Options B or C or what would happen if he were still in Minnesota or Cleveland...
  4. Danchat
    Well, I wonder what your opinion of Ichiro Suzuki is, owner of a career .757 OPS. While he was more around .780 to .820 in the prime of his career, I think OPS undervalues hitters who usually end up on 1B more often than not. It would be nice if Arraez had a defensive home... I think he can handle 2B just ifne, but that is rightly Polanco's spot.
  5. Danchat
    If Story can be had at a relative discount due to his average 2021 season, I’d kick the tires on him. But with the risk of big FA deals, I don’t see our FO pursuing any of these guys.
  6. Danchat
    I don't think Cabbage is a worthwhile prospect, and Javier is a defense-only player at this point. You can find other players with their skills on minor league deals, and thus I wouldn't bother adding them to the 40 man.
  7. Danchat
    Alright, so here's a spreadsheet with the data. The hitting and pitching cards are on the first page and should be pretty straightforward, and if there are multiple criteria for a roll, you go top to bottom. The second tab has the Stats to Ranking method, so I recommend visiting Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to determine the stats for the players. Basically, the dice rolls will allow a .300 hitter to hit that when the Batting Card is rolled, a HR heavy hitter will hit more, and they'll take walks and strike out at a general rate to what they did in reality. The master card is very limited and you'll find results are far more accurate and realistic using the actual cards, but I think this is an effective quick-and-dirty method for simming pick-up games like I do. Some of the data is old and a bit questionable (the K rating tops out at 9.6, which has been blown by, you can tell I set this up back in 2015-16). Strat-O-Matic Baseball Hitting and Pitching Card.xlsx
  8. Danchat
    It felt like the Saints were much better than 67-63, but I guess the pitching was pretty bad. I enjoyed having AAA be in St. Paul and I hope to make it to a few more games there next year.
  9. Danchat
    It looks like I missed your post, sorry about that. I'll attach a couple spreadsheets for you guys when I get some time, I've been busy but I will get back to this. The strikeout has precedence there.
  10. Danchat

    Grading Falvey and CO

    Danchat commented on Brandon's blog entry in Blog Brandon

    If you're going off just the 2021 season, then yes, I'd give them an F. But for the 2017-21 stretch as a whole? I think it'd average out to about a C, though the lack of a single freaking playoff win does hurt it.
  11. Danchat
    I wonder if we will get to see Contreras at some point next season? He's reportedly a great defender in the corner outfield spots and he hit well this year. I'd rather see him than the likes of Refsnyder and Cave.
  12. Danchat
    I think we will see Rosario rise up the rankings as time goes on, as his hitting was fantastic for a 19 year old. Perhaps one day we will get a Rosario back in LF!
  13. Danchat
    This is the best site for it: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins Under the "Options / Or Rule5 Status" you can see what year the player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. By my opinion, I think Lewis, Miranda, Winder, Enlow, and Sands are locks, while there are a handful more who are decent candidates to be protected.
  14. Danchat
    I'm torn on Stashak. I'd be bad if they DFA him just to see him revert back to his usual self, somewhat like what happened to Littell. But does he have enough upside to be worth keeping around? It seems unlikely he becomes a high leverage reliever here... though give him to the Rays and he'll become their closer. Thorpe and Smeltzer can go, neither have the stuff and Thorpe is brittle as heck and is out of options. I've had enough of the soft-tossing lefty starters. Jax and Barnes are debatable, but I don't think they are MLB starters and can be DFA'd without many problems. They could be worth having as rotational depth in AAA, but is that worth a 40 man spot?
  15. Danchat
    My pen would be: Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Gant, Alcala. Moran and Garza in AAA. I just don't trust the veteran filler guys (Farrell, Minaya, Coulombe) to be any good in 2022 despite their numbers. They should go after some FA options or a trade candidate or two to fill the pen up. No way in heck I'd bring back Colome. Gant is not a starter, and has had strong stretches in the pen. Cano could be an option midway through 2022.
  16. Danchat
    Yikes, both Balazovic and Sands had bad starts in their postseason appearances. Darn.
  17. Danchat
    I think it’s safe to say they will be adding a SS in free agency/trade, it just depends who that is… Lewis might be the guy in 2023, but the other internal options really aren’t “options”.
  18. Danchat
    Strotman and Ryan are pitching as polar opposites. Strotman looks like he needs to try AA again, and Ryan already looks like our best starter. The Kernels are hitting really well, even Sabato is hitting well against this competition. Is the pitching in A+ worse than A for some reason?
  19. Danchat
    I think the horrid fielding needs to be a talking point in the Lowlights… how did this team go from being one of the better defensive units last year to being a complete train wreck? I know 2020 was a SSS, but they added Simmons and moved Polanco to his natural position, yet the gaffs have been far more frequent.
  20. Danchat
    So they had SWR pitch again today, huh? I guess that explains why he only got three innings last time out. Good to see Steer with the big hit. His numbers have taken a hit since arriving at AA, but within an acceptable limit for the sizeable jump from A+ to AA. If he takes another step forward next year, he will be poised to do damage in the bigs. I would like to see a bat or two from AAA come up and get a chance... Miranda should be up here now, and I'd like to see Jimmy Kerrigan. He's raking as of late and has plus speed. If I'm not mistaken I believe he will be a free agent, so why not give him a shot?
  21. Danchat
    As far as I can tell he’s healthy now and he was healthy in 2020... I don’t see him suddenly turning back into what he was in 2018/19. He’s striking out about as much as Sano this year and has worse plate discipline... and that’s not to mention his frustrating fielding. There will be many superior 4th OF options out there, I see no reason to retain him.
  22. Danchat
    I love Arraez at the plate, but I am unsure about how good he is defensively. From just using the eye test he looks well below average at LF/3B, but I will have to check on the advanced stats to see if that is backed up.
  23. Danchat
    I would caution you from doing that... from my perspective that seems like an over-reactionary bet, since it would be no surprise to me if the Vikings at least covered just because we play better by default and Arizona regresses somewhat. But this is coming from someone who has sworn off gambling, so you do you. However, the Yankees-Twins matchups have transcended common sense. They've won something like 80% of their games against us in the past 20-25 years. Unless that is priced into the line, I'm willing to break my embargo.
  24. Danchat
    That's it... I might just bet on a sports game for the first time in 2022 and put money on the Yankees every single time they play the Twins. Either I will make a profit since the Twins are guaranteed to poop themselves every time they play New York, or I will break the Twins' horrible streak by losing money. A win-win, perhaps.
  25. Danchat

    Jorge Alcala has quietly been pitching very well since late July and in high leverage situations... ? Our pen certainly has internal options for 2022, but most seem suited to the middle innings.

    1. Brock Beauchamp

      Brock Beauchamp

      In a small sample size of September, the Twins' entire staff has the fourth best ERA in MLB. Things no longer look nearly as dire as they did a month or more ago.

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