Danchat

I don't think Baddoo and Wade are self-scouting errors; Baddoo did not seem like he would be taken in the Rule 5 draft due to his numbers in the minors and injury history, and there was only so much room on the 40 man. Wade was superfluous as yet another lefty who would be stretching it in CF, so with Kepler/Cave/Kirilloff/Larnach/Arraez on the team, trading him was logical, but they failed to fix the pitcher they got in return. This FO does seem to have an issue with self-scouting their pitchers. While they could have tried out Nick Anderson, they were busy rummaging through DFA guys like Matt Belisle and Oliver Drake. They too often try to get their older waiver wire relievers to become reliable options when they could be trying out arms in the minor league system. They also have not shown willingness to go out and acquire arms via trade very often, with Maeda as their only successful veteran acquisition via trade (Romo was more of a minor success). If we're going to go on a World Series run, we'll need a great bullpen, and that's not going to be built via scrap heap pickups. Sure, you'll find a gem every once in a while like Brandon Workman for the Red Sox, but most of the time they will need to spend in FA/trades and develop some minor league arms.

He's #32 on my board, his Tool Grades from Fangraphs is keeping him lower on the list than the others, but he probably shouldn't be 10 spots behind Cano. Wallner was my 8th prospect originally and the top 3 graduated, so it's hard to knock him down much lower after just 75 PAs. I don't think you'll see any of the others rate Miranda over Wallner like I did, at least this high. Sabato was originally ranked #9 and was essentially knocked down 3 spots as I explained above. I'm also being more lenient on guys who are in their first season - Rooker, on the other hand, has had plenty of time, hence him dropping like a stone. I guess I'm not feeling the hype quite as much on him. His .490 OBP is insane.

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing! Format #Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating) Current Level - Quick Summary Graduated #1 OF Trevor Larnach #2 C Ryan Jeffers #3 OF Alex Kirilloff DFA'd #18 2B Travis Blankenhorn #35 SP Dakota Chalmers Top 30 Prospects #30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked) A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now. | | #29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24) A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type. | | #28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32) A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches). | | #27 - 2B Will Holland (#26) A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size. | | #26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23) A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season. | | #25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR) AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30. | | #24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29) Not playing yet. | | #23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28) Not playing yet / injured. | | #22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR) AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever. | | #21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15) On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins. | | #20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20) MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate. | | #19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25) Not playing yet | | #18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22) MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though. | | #17 - SS Wander Javier (#19) AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit. | | #16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21) A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting. | | #15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16) A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year. | | #14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7) AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster. | | #13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14) A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned. | | #12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13) A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go. | | #11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33) MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter. | | #10 - SP Josh Winder (#27) AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy. | | #9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9) A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate. | | #8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10) MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute. | | #7 - SP Cole Sands (#12) AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury. | | #6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8) A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size. | | #5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17) AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power. | | #4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11) A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone. | | #3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5) AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season. | | #2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6) AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt. | | #1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4) Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021: Royce Lewis Jermaine Palacios Jose Miranda Josh Winder Cole Sands Wander Javier Gabriel Maciel Blayne Enlow

I think Berrios will command a bit over $100M. Buxton is hard to put my finger on due to obvious reasons, but I don't think he gets $100M+. He may be hitting like an MVP when he's playing, but it's a pretty small sample size, and his defense is not going to improve with age.

Burrows is probably just here to be depth, with Thorpe and Smeltzer on the shelf longer than usual. He and Barraclough ain't blocking anyone - the FO would make room for them when they are promoted, it's not like we have legitimate depth we can't afford to lose in AAA. Burrows' track record is pretty mediocre, as he's been hittable and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He is just 24 and has options. Perhaps they move him to the pen full-time and see if he can step his game up that way.

Yikes, Duran goes out with an elbow problem, and then Balazovic gets shelled. The pitching prospects are having a hard time staying healthy... Miranda continues to rake like crazy. Also, Spencer Steer seems to be having a great year. He'll get a bump up on my prospects ranking.

Sure, the Twins will probably play a little better with the roster getting healthier, and I don't think they're going to lose 100+ games, but they're not competing for the division. Good teams like the White Sox will slump at points in the season, and mediocre teams like the Twins will beat up on bad ones like the Rangers sometimes.

I disagree, Semien got $16M from Toronto and the Twins weren’t willing to pay that much. It’s almost always about money over the team/Minnesota.

I think the negotiation starts at 5 years, $100M. He’s asking for market rate money and has been more healthy than McCullers with similar numbers. A month back I was more on the Trade Berrios bandwagon, but with the way our rotation has imploded, I am swinging towards keep Berrios, trade Buxton.

I'm not worried. When it has come to Falvine's top hitting prospects, they are either in the lineup every day or playing that much in AAA. "Passion"? He'd routinely show little effort running to first and would misplay routine flyballs. I in no way hate Rosario, but if the Twins retained him and the he hits like he has for the Indians, Twins Daily would be slamming him. He hasn't been all that much better than Sano this year and has certainly not been worth the $8M Cleveland gave him. He still can't get on base and his power is suddenly gone (4 HRs in 240+ PAs). You're basing this off small sample sizes for both Gordon and Arraez... even with Arraez slumping, he still getting on base with a .350 OBP and has a career .316 BA. His defense is pretty bad, but we need him in the lineup, especially with how many solo HRs this team has been hitting without him.

Larnach never struggled at any level in the minors over a full season, which is why I thought of him as the "safest" prospect in the organization, and it looks like he's taken the promotion well, and he's here to stay. Hitting against MLB pitchers is incredibly difficult and Larnach will surely have some slumps, but I have confidence he will become a cornerstone for the Twins for several years. Here's hoping their pitching prospects can come up and show similar poise and competency that Larnach does.

Good to see Cano get promoted. Let’s see what he can do in AAA and see if he’s worth giving an audition in August/September.

I'd really rather trade Buxton to the NL so I don't have to see him very often. I certainly wouldn't ship him off to the Yankees!

I was pretty high on Littell last year, so it's disappointing to see him do so well just a year after we DFA'd him. Something is wrong with our pitching staff, and our FO seems more interested in trying out 30+ year old journeyman relievers than developing their own internal relievers. And then you remember that they essentially traded Huascar Ynoa for Littell... one of the more promising young starters in baseball, now that he's a Brave. I was hoping the Twins' organization would become similar to Cleveland or Tampa Bay in regards to pitching, but that hasn't happened. The true test will be when the FO's pitching prospects start emerging onto the MLB team.

I dunno, I doubt he’s ready for AA. Still just at .744 OPS despite all the hype. He needs to keep emerging if he wants to climb back up the prospect rankings.

I believe they're keeping the 28 man roster for September 2021 instead of the old "call the whole 40 man roster up" rule.

Seems a bit contradictory here, Thielbar has also given up more hits than walks. Cano's K numbers have been even better than his. Obviously the competition level is quite different, but do we really need to hold onto a 34 year old replacement level reliever like Thielbar over prospects who might pan out long-term? I would like to see what Mason/Moran/Cano can do in AAA and there is plenty of room for them (Leyer/Minaya/Gibaut are expendable), and have them audition for a potential late season cameo with the Twins. This doesn't need to happen all at once, but Cano is already 27 and Mason & Moran have already pitched in AA in 2019. I'd rather give innings to guys who might be the future of the pen, as compared to guys like Thielbar.

I would call up Charlie Barnes to replace Shoemaker in an instant, he's pitched well in his past few starts at AAA. Baseball Reference has Shoemaker at -1.4 WAR, so by definition any replacement level pitcher would most likely be better than him. Their faith in him is simply baffling, bordering on Mike Pelfrey levels of delusion.

Hmmmm, yeah, maybe his future is as a backup LF/CF/RF/2B with a higher batting average, with low power. He's definitely playing better than expected in a small sample size, and I'll keep rooting for him. I do wonder what the plan for Arraez will be. I am certainly not giving up on him, but perhaps they just need to stick him at 2B. Gordon seems like a much better option in the OF than Arraez.

Sure, they still could have taken Enlow, but they likely wouldn't have been able to pay him over his slot amount, which is reportedly why he fell to the 3rd round. Lewis strikes me as a guy who will take a few years to learn how to hit in the bigs, similar to how Buxton debuted / eventually got settled at the plate.

May has rebounded after a bad start and is sitting at 3.86 ERA/3.29 FIP, but he does have a 10 hits/9. His 102 ERA+ would put him behind Robles, Rogers, and Alcala on our current team.

Sands, Miranda, Moran, and Cano... I like these guys in AA.

I’m surprised they just straight up gave up on Hackimer. It’s not a big deal, but they’d really rather have Minaya over him? Ok, then...

I can't remember the last time I watched a professional baseball team look so... clumsy. Sure, putting Tortuga out at 3B is asking for it, but Simmons has screwed up several routine plays this year, Polanco was supposed to be a plus defender at 2B, but still disappoints even though 2B is easier to play with modern day shifts. This team consistently finds ways to embarrass themselves.

If I knew the Twins were only going to take hitters in the 1st round for the next 4-5 years, I would have hoped they went with one of the top pitching prospects... I don't think Royce is going to bust, but I think he will be less valuable than a couple of guys that went shortly after him. At least they were able to save money on the slot and take Enlow... who now is having TJ surgery. Great! ☹️