Danchat
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Everything posted by Danchat
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Hunter missed 10 games in 2021 and has played every game since, 34 in a row. I have no concerns with his health, more with are we okay paying him big money when he’s 32/33?
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I think the issue here is that Castro is back and would be the pinch runner in these scenarios, not Thompson. Castro also at least had a history of being able to be a good enough utility defender around the infield at the major league level, while Thompson is just another outfielder. We have a guy just like him in the minors - DaShawn Keirsey - who is a very similar player. The only fit I see for Thompson is being stashed at AAA and used if injuries hit the likes of Castro / Martin / Keirsey. Basically a Billy Hamilton / 2020 Aaron Whitefield scenario. -
To give some credit to the front office, the 2023 class had a good rookie season for what picks they did have. Addison was a BPA pick when they could have easily filled a bigger need on defense, and found a really good player. Blackmon was the last pick in the 3rd round and played decently well, faaaaar better rookie year than Booth or Evans had previously. I hated the Ward pick (I had a 7th round grade on him), and now it looks unnecessary as Metellus and Bynum have proven themselves and Theo Jackson is the next guy up. The rest of the picks were fine for what they were, though I do wonder if they would have taken Pace if DeWayne McBride weren't on the board - they reportedly had a high grade on him as he looked dominant on tape but looked out of shape / way slower than expected in camp, possibly connected to a hamstring problem he had been dealing with for a good 6-8 months. Both he and Pace were in the top 5 of prospects left on the board at that point. It doesn't make up for the atrocity that was the 2022 draft class, but it is a step in the right direction, albeit with far less draft capital.
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Funny to see Gallo and Sano sign on the same day, especially since we've been waiting for Sano to sign somewhere for over a year now. Incredible how Gallo can command that kind of money despite being a proven black hole at the plate. Analytics have gotten him paid quite well - and yes, I know he's a decent defender. But most teams have a guy at AAA who can field that well and also not be able to hit whatsoever.
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With XPs further out it’s optimal to go for 2 when down 8. It’s 95% XP vs about 55% to get the extra two. Of course, they need to dial up a better play on that conversion.
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They finished 5 games back of the Lions... they weren't winning the division even if everybody was healthy. They'd certainly be in the playoffs in one of the wild cards, but the injuries didn't cause us to lose an extra 5 games. I believe they can agree to the deal during the 2 day tampering period (which Kirk wants to get to so he can receive other bids) and announce the deal on the day the league year starts and avoid the $28.5M hitting... at least that's what I've been told by other sources.
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The Eagles have been playing like this the past 6-7 weeks, no surprise they are playing like crap. No idea why the line was PHI -3.5 on the road!
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McCarthy has made it 24 hours later...
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Wow. I predicted the Packers to win by 3 despite the line being Dallas -7, but I didn’t see an epic beatdown coming. Disgusting performance from Dallas. Please San Fran, end the Packers next week! Crazy to see the Packers keep their Super Bowl window open despite retooling the roster, meanwhile the Vikings keep pretending like theirs is open when it’s not. Now the Lions and Packers are clearly better and the Bears are real close.
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Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Danchat replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm going to guess a big reason why they are underrated are because of this: Joe Ryan 2023 July and on: 6.09 ERA, only pitched 2 innings in the playoffs Bailey Ober 2023 August and on: 3.94 ERA (down from 3.19 ERA the rest of the year), Playoffs 12.46 ERA It's a "what have you done for me lately" league and Ryan was unplayable in the second half of 2023, while Ober was only bad for the playoffs and was still pitching pretty well down the stretch. Both are capable of being really good starters, but are we talking for a 2 month stretch or most of the season? I'm more concerned about Ryan and his tendency to give up too many HRs. Ober's numbers were strong for a majority of the season, so I'm less worried there. -
Not all rookies are alike, depending on their experience and the college they played at, they may or not be ready earlier than others. Most of the top rookies (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Nix, Penix) could be counted on to start Week 1 or on the verge of it. A guy like JJ McCarthy is one I'd like to see a full year on the bench first. Howell and Ridder didn't get a big chance until their second year. There aren't any teams recently waited more than 2 years for a highly drafted QB except for the Packers. Frankly, the Vikings are in the worst position in the division talent/cap wise. The Packers and Bears have a ton of flexibility as they took a step back and didn't push money down the road like we did, and the Lions will have room to fix their leaky defense (though I'd be concerned if they lose their OC and even possibly their DC, like the Eagles did last year). The Vikes need to face the music and take a step back instead of patching all of their holes with pricey veterans like I fear they may try to.
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OK... I'm not that high on Ewers, though I don't know if he's committed yet. The Oregon State QB already flunked out of Clemson last year and is in the transfer portal. I know there are some fans of Spencer Rattler.
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Who do you have over him? I'm seeing a variation of Penix, McCarthy and Nix for QBs #4-6 but I'm curious if you have any other names above McCarthy.
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To be fair, QBs can slip into the second round like how Will Levis did, nobody was willing to move up into the 1st for him but the Titans were willing to jump up to the top of the 2nd to get him.
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I had a 6th round grade on him, he was generally expected to go round 5-7. To be fair to Spielman, he at least provided them with Bynum and Metellus, and the entire edge room is Spielman players as KAM only added Za'Darius (gone) and Davenport (about to be gone). The edge room is literally empty on paper in 2025 with only a UDFA under contract, the CB room is full of question marks, the DL only has run stuffers, and the safety room is good. That's not the result I was hoping for after two years of the new regime. The entire 2022 draft class is up in flames and the 2023 class looks good, but it was only a 1st and then a very late 3rd and 4th plus a few other late guys. Yeah, that's a hard pill to swallow... though other Day 3 QBs like Clayton Tune, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Aidan O'Connell also looked overwhelmed in their first full starts.
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I did a little bit of film review, they sent 5 or 6 blitzers on almost every play. It's a big reason why so many guys were open, though Akayleb Evans had a horrifically bad game in coverage allowing 119 yards... most of which were to Bo Melton, a practice squad call-up. Not a single Packer had a 100+ yard game this season until him! The other big thing that stuck out to me was that the OL gave up pressure on 61.5% of dropbacks. Darrisaw, Bradbury, and Risner had their worst games of the year in pass pro. Ingram got benched for the ineligible player penalty. This is the one game I can definitively say we lose with Kirk at QB. And not to mention: January 1st 2023: Packers 41, Vikings 17 December 31st 2023: Packers 33 Vikings 10 I really hate this team sometimes...
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The stats have come out... they blitzed 75.8% of the time!! 25 of 33 dropbacks for Love he faced a blitz. That's insane, and it's if there was zero pressure on him.
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They blitzed quite often but the Packers picked it up. It took a while but teams have finally figured out his blitzes, and the DBs can't hold up when the pass rush doesn't immediately hit. The front seven has a single player who can generate pressure (Hunter) and with Wonnum down they have nobody. Hicks and Pace weren't getting home as blitzers, Jones II is a bust who has no business being a every-snap player, and the DL is only comprised of run stuffers. It's a recipe for failure - the whole offseason plan was rotten from the start. Adding Davenport (injured), Murphy (fine), and Lowry (bad) and then only spending a 3rd and 4th on DBs was not a good plan if they wanted to be competitive... and also not a good long-term plan as Davenport is a FA and Murphy has just one year left. The Vikings blitzed 63% against the Lions - yes, 63%! They just consistently picked it up with their elite OL and punished them for it. Flores is damned if he blitzes, damned if he doesn't. Their play against Green Bay was inexcusable, but the personnel blows.
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He was playing well but not at a borderline MVP level, the offense was only scoring 22 points a game with him in. QBR and PFF have him in the top 7, which is more in line with how I rank him. Part of this is because every TD save one was scored through the air, I'll lay it out: The offense with Kirk: 18 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD (95%) The offense without Kirk: 9 passing TDs, 6 rushing TDs (60%) You could do the same with Jalen Hurts - he only has 20 passing TDs compared to Kirk's 18... but then you remember he has 15 rushing TDs. It doesn't matter how you score them, you get 6 points either way. On the whole, it's 21.9 points per game with Kirk vs 19.9 without. It certainly feels worse than that, but we are forgetting how mediocre the offense was in parts of that 4-4 stretch.
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We're just going to assume that we win every single game with Kirk? Come on, it's not as if he didn't have clunkers against the Bucs, Bears, and Panthers. Let's not forget we started the year 1-4, well before the injury bug hit the roster.
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My prediction: Lions by 4.
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From what I'm seeing, it's a 98% chance of going to the playoffs if they win 2/3.
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Falcons Arthur Smith needs to go. He stinks.
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It seems too late in the year to add another QB who'd need to learn O'Connell's system, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. You have to think the Jets inquired, with how they were starting Tim freaking Boyle.
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I think he's safe, they have a bad roster and he's a strong leader of men. Heck, I could see another team trading for him if Ten really wants to move on. The more I watch the Bears, the more I think they are fooled into keeping him. It sounds like Kraft is going to axe him once the season is over, but there have been trade talks floating around. He's still a great DC but he's been a horrid GM for years now and the offensive side of the ball has deteriorated under his management. No way would I take him as a HC at this point, despite how great he was for a long time.
