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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Well, if both DeSclafani and Staumont are healthy, then, other than outlier performances (good or bad) and/or injury, the pitching roster is set. The only position player battle is the last seat on the bench with Larnach and Martin as the primary contenders. Here’s hoping for an injury free, no drama spring training.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Why am I more excited about this list than what is just on the paper? Because we already have so much young talent on the varsity team. Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, Ober, Ryan, Duran, Varland, maybe add Kiriloff- these are all legit young players that could be mainstays in our lineup for years. Thus, we really don’t need as many of the prospects to hit in the near to mid term. Assuming CC is good for several more years, we only are really taking about having to add one or two outfielders (depending on Buxton) and maybe one infielder (and we have an excellent one of those knocking on the door) over the next couple of years if need be. We have three young starters to pair with Lopez too. And a premier closer. This bevy of existing young MLB talent actually makes our prospect list stronger than it seems.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Six of one, half a dozen of the other. It will all depend on health and performance. IMHO, this year’s staff as the season is about to commence looks about as strong as last year’s when last season was about to commence. Why? I was expecting zilch out of Mahle, very little out of Maeda and Ober was a wild card. So we just have to see, but there is a lot to like about this year’s rotation (overall, relative to the rest of the AL, and relative to last year’s heading into the season). Now, if we are talking about our entire pitching staff in terms of talent and depth, I’m 100% taking this year’s over last year’s (again, comparing apples to apples - the staffs as the season began).
  4. Nashvilletwin
    When the time comes, and it’s coming this year because Lee is going to make it happen, there is no log jam. Plain and simple. We have five positions for seven players. The five positions are: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and DH. The seven players, this season, are: Correa, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Kiriloff, Farmer and Santana. Let’s examine the playing options of each player (primary first and then secondary) Correa - SS, DH (LH) Lewis - 3B, SS, 2B, DH (LH) Lee - 2B, SS, 3B, DH (RH, LH). Julien - 2B, 1B, DH (RH). Kiriloff - 1B, COF, DH (RH). Farmer - Defensive substitute, full time injury replacement SS, 3B, 2B. Santana - 1B, defensive substitute, DH (RH, LH) Assumption: At least one Twins position player (excluding C) across the entire lineup is on the IL 80% of all games post May 1. Solution: Five of those IF players start every game with each one getting a day off every seven games or so depending on need and matchups. Farmer plays as a late inning sub unless one of CC, Lewis, or Lee is on the IL. Santana, Julien, and Kiriloff primarily rotate 1B, DH, and PH duties with Julien rotating into 2B when Lee is having an off day or Lee is filling in for CC or Lewis. Kiriloff can be the 5th OF if need be, while Martin and Larnach act as the swing pieces that move back and fourth with St. Paul to keep the number of non C position players on the active roster at 11 (when no one is on the IL). If things really get tight and/or (God forbid) we are out of contention, one or two of Farmer, Santana, Kepler or Kiriloff (because Severino is ready) gets moved at the deadline. Easy peasy. Now, let’s get everyone playing well and make the above happen.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    I respectfully take the other side of this sentiment. Farmer is a real pro’s pro who can step right in as a proven player at any position in the infield. Every young guy on the team will also be better because Farmer is on the team. He’s staying as long as this team is contending. Just my opinion.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    I’d take 200 innings in 36 combined starts of 4.25 ERA from Varland and DeSclafani combined right now. If we got 30 starts on average from the other four, that would only leave six starts for others - barely covering doubleheaders.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    SWR is on the 40 man already - that’s why he wasn’t mentioned. He’s ahead of Dobnak for sure at the moment in the call up hierarchy, as is probably Winder. Varland, of course, is at the top. Festa could slot in there behind Varland later in the season and then moved to the 40 man. Oh and let’s not forget Canterino’s upside.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, that’s nice to see. Doesn’t look like Bubba Thompson made it through waivers. Starter depth is fairly limited to who’s on the 40 man other than Festa and Dobnak (one can only cheer for him). However, there may be a legit full handful of relievers who could be called upon this year and be effective.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    There is a little more position player depth on the farm outside the 40 man than I had remembered. Helman, Prato, and Goodrum (he of prior big league experience) can pretty much play all over the field except C. Keirsey is probably our 4th CFer at the moment. And, of course, Lee. So that’s five players who could be called upon in addition to Larnach/Martin, Miranda, Severino, and ERod. Not all of those are ready now, but that is a nine player pool from which to access for call ups. Overall young and inexperienced, but there is talent there for sure..
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Here’s my advice Roy, I mean, Walker: avoid creepy attractive women on trains. Everything else will take care of itself.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    I thought we have 4 consensus top 100s in Jenkins, Lee, ERod and Gabby? Maybe Gabby isn’t on all of them. But he is #4 in our system according to the national rankers. So there really isn’t much difference between #5 and #6. Honestly, if Festa is our #6 starter next year replacing DeScalafani and both are solid #3-#4 rotation types in 2026, we all should be pleased as punch. No one really cares much where they are relative to one another in the rankings.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    I apologise to all Twins fans for jinxing the season, but I will take the over and a division crown. There is certainly a lot of performance risk in this lineup and not a tremendous amount of bankable depth, but the strength of this team will be its pitching, and, specifically, the pen. I’ve been fairly vocal on the TD about how a deep, shutdown pen is the key to added wins in the 5-6 inning starter era. This pen could run 12 deep with a solid six being high leverage options. If the starters can average 5-6 innings a game and an ERA of 4.00 or less, there should be enough offense and bullpen success to carry this team to over 88 wins.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, DH is an interesting question for this ball club. It really looks to be shaping up to be a rotation primarily among a handful of players. Against RHs, Santana/Kiriloff (whoever is not playing 1B), Larnach (provided he makes the team) and switch hitter Castro (but he is our only CF backup) should see a lot of ABs. Against LHs, Santana, Jeffers and Buxton could be top choices. Assuming 70% or so of starts are by RHers, Buxton could start 60% of those games in CF (so about 80 games) and be the primary DH against LHs (say another 30 games). If the plan is to use Buxton or Castro as the DH, and Kepler is not willing to move to CF as needed, Martin is the better last choice for the roster.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    If a RH OF bat is not added, then one of Larnach and Martin (the only real position battle of ST) makes the team and the other plus Keirsey is the extent of our theoretical OF depth in AAA. All three of those players are unproven at the MLB level. With uncertainty about both Buxton’s health and Wallner’s sophomore season, our OF depth is insufficient. It would be smart to add a RH OF bat. Sadly, Soler is signing a 3 yr deal with the Giants. The starting staff is not only set, but solid with a true #1, possibly three #2 or #3 types, and two #5s who will both see plenty of starts this season, Adding an additional arm now would only push Varland further down the SP chain - which is not what the FO wants. The goal is to get through the first several months with the six bonafide starters and then, if there are injuries or performance stumbles, see what SWR, Festa, Headrick and others can bring to the table or, alternatively, look to the trade market. Barring injury, the reliever lineup is set. If Staumont is not ready, then there will be a battle for the final spot. If all goes well, ST will be pretty boring. Let’s hope so.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    That’s a great section in Jim Bouton’s baseball classic Ball Four where he describes the pre game pitchers’ meeting when his 1969 Seattle Pilots were going through the Twins lineup to decide how to pitch to each Twins batter. As I recall, when the meeting was over Bouton said they looked at the plan and they had eight “pitch arounds”. Pretty funny, but those ‘69 and ‘70 teams were stacked.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Agree 100% - there is one more open position player spot available on the roster. Assuming no injuries, there are three options for filling it (ranked in the order I personally prefer). 1. Bring in a new big bat player, likely a RH outfielder (ideally one who can play CF, but I still kinda like Soler). 2. Give the spot to Larnach or Martin - our two highest highest ranked OF call-up options. Larnach has MLB experience, but Martin bats RH, can play CF, can play non 1B IF too, has more speed, and has more options. If no one is added, this is the most likely main event battle of ST (with the last bullpen spot being the only other one). Martin seems more like a better fitting (and possibly better playing) Gordon. 3. Give the spot to an IFer - Miranda, Lee or (less likely) Severino. The roster already has seven IFers: Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kiriloff, Santana, Farmer and Castro (on an emergency basis). Adding another IF, even contemplating Kiriloff playing some OF, seems less likely. More likely, an injury, coupled with whomever is hottest during ST, will be the reason one of those three breaks camp with the big club.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Careful, with comments like your last sentence you are practically touching the third rail for a lot of our fellow TDers. You might be better off suggesting cutting social security. Of course, in a year or two you’d be absolutely correct if Lee becomes who we think he can be. By the end of ‘25, there is a high likelihood Lee is our best offensive and defensive (assuming Miller is still on the farm) shortstop. But trading CC will be hard because he has a no trade clause and we’d have to eat salary. Let’s just be grateful for CC’s outstanding play and leadership for the time being and see how things develop.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Boy, first an article about Buxton making the HOF and now a post that Lee might be the ROY. How about both players show up for work everyday, stay healthy, and put out 100% effort and then let’s see how things develop. I’m as excited about their prospects as the next guy, probably more, but, geez, talk about putting the cart before the horse….
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Nick was the team MVP in the second half of 2022 when we desperately tried to stay in contention. He proved he could play more than adequately at the MLB level. The Twins did him a solid by moving him to the Marlins. Maybe he’ll get more playing time and a better opportunity to keep showing what he can do. Hey, it worked out great for Steer and CES. Good luck Nick - please say hello to my favorite ex- Twin who’s ABs I never missed. But let’s be frank - he was only moved because he hit left handed and had no options left. Given Gordon’s ability to play CF, if it had been Larnach who was out of options, Trevor would have been the one on the move.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Excellent trade for the Twins. I had thought that Gordon was going to have spring training to essentially audition for a new club. This trade eliminates any risk of a bad spring and reduced value. Love the deep bullpen strategy. It’s a big part of how small/mid-markets teams can compete in this day and age. A RH OF bat surely has to be coming. At the moment we really only have four OFs on the roster, plus three untested possible call-ups: Larnach (who is also LHed), Martin and Keirsey. Theoretically, Kiriloff could play corner OF as well. I wouldn’t rule out Soler still, may be on a two year deal with an opt out after one. CF depth would be Buxton, Castro, and Martin (awaiting call up in St. Paul). Corner depth is Kepler, Wallner and Soler (who can also DH).
  21. Nashvilletwin
    I actually have Noah Miller pencilled in as one of utility infielders breaking camp with the varsity in 2026. Farmer will be gone. Correa will be two seasons older and may need a few more days off. By 2026, Miller will likely be the best defensive SS in our entire system. Lewis and Lee are ensconced at 3B and 2B, respectively. Julien and Severino will be our primary DH and 1B. Keaschall or Schobel plays the infield non SS utility role (and maybe some OF and pinch hitting as well). Miller is our primary SS backup and late inning defensive specialist. That could be one fine infield lineup in terms of defensive range and arm, on base, power, speed, flexibility, leadership, and, importantly, overall cost.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    This list is precisely why we haven’t seen ERod or Rosario or Larnach or Martin or Kepler moved this off-season. Three of the five on the above 2026 top prospects list are outfielders. Assuming the timeline is correct, and given their ages it appears more than reasonable, it certainly seems likely we shouldn’t expect a lot out of the three in a meaningful way - both innings and production - until 2027. Ladies and gentlemen, we could have a bit of an outfielder gap in ‘25 and ‘26. Why? Buxton’s health, Wallner’s no sure thing, Kepler could leave, Castro’s and Gordon’s limited ceilings, Kiriloff’s everything and who really knows about Larnach, Martin, Rosario, and ERod at this point. A lot will happen in 2024 that will determine who will manning the outfield for the Twins as we wait for at least one or two of the listed 2026 prospects. The FO has been very smart this off-season about keeping their powder dry to see how things develop. That is why a Kepler extension cannot be ruled out (and perhaps part of the reason why payroll is down this year - who knows whom we might need to sign to play outfield for the next couple of seasons).
  23. Nashvilletwin
    A lot of great comments and good ideas. But count me as one who thinks the FO this season is playing both for the short and long games as it relates to trades. Re this season, we actually have very little overall depth among position players. In the outfield, we have tons of question marks between Buxton’s health, Wallner’s sophomore season, and Kepler’s Jekyll and Hyde production. After that we have five mediocre/unproven players as backups: Castro, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, and Keirsey. That’s not much. Larnach stays for now - he’s likely to be needed. Non 1B infield is the same: our reserves are Farmer, Castro, Gordon and Lee. And catcher? Carmargo and Williams (not on the 40 man). 1B? Severino and Miranda. And remember, Gordon is out of options - so if he doesn’t stay with the big club, we’d probably lose him. The bench is shallow and unproven. Re the long game, the FO sees a remarkable opportunity opening up in a couple of years - namely, a team of young, productive, cheap players. They do not want to move any of their top six - eight prospects. After that, no one is close enough to the bigs and/or good enough to move the dial meaningfully to acquire a player who can help now. So it’s a short term FA (if the budget is there) or nothing at all from this point forward.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Well, for the longer term we have five outstanding to reasonable outfield prospects to go along with Wallner, Martin, and theoretically Larnach. It’s unlikely any of the five - Jenkins (19) ERod (21) Gabby (20) Winokur (19) and Rosario (21) - will break camp with the big club prior to 2026 at best due to level and age. Let’s see how things go this season - there’s a lot going on in our outfield between Buxton’s health, Wallner’s sophomore year, Kepler’s assumed last stint with the team, and uncertain innings for Castro, Gordon, Martin, and Larnach. We are definitely not long bankable outfield depth over the next two seasons. But if Wallner and ideally one of Martin, Larnach or Gordon turn out ok, we should be in great shape after that.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    My vote is that he sticks around at least this year and possibly quite a bit longer in the Twins system. Why? 1. Being young for his level, his value should only rise as he gets more selective and proves his hitting tool. His trade value should be projected to rise even if he falls out of the top 100. 2. Our outfield depth is really not that great. We have three decent major league starters, but all three have big risks via their futures (Buxton - health, Kepler - won’t be here, Wallner - fully making the leap). After that, near term depth is a bit dicey with Castro, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, Keirsey, etc. It’s not clear that any one of them will ever be an above average MLB outfielder. So, Gabby fits in well with the next group of Jenkins, Rodríguez, Winokur and Rosario. It’s very possible that at least two of this group of five prospects will need to be starters in our outfield by 2026. 3. The Twins like to acquire players whom they think they can tweak to unlock a top tool. Gabby’s top tool - hitting - happens to be the most important one. The Twins are betting they can transform that tool into better hitting plus power. Gabby was specifically part of the Polanco trade for a reason: he has the potential to fill a critical role and perform at a top level on the varsity for many years after Polanco, Topa and DeSclafani are long gone.
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