Nashvilletwin

Let’s not get greedy. Assuming Lewis is our 3B going forward, the ultimate goal this season for Lee is to turn him into our starting 2B in 2025. Two things will be very helpful to accomplishing that: 1) he’s not rushed and 2) he gets the right mentorship when called up. So these points would support him starting in AAA to build his confidence, moving across the river when the inevitable injury occurs, and being exposed to/learning from Kyle Farmer. 2024 is the year Julien, Kiriloff and Severino audition for the starting 1B job in 2025. With Santana on a one year deal, it’s more than likely that one of those three is our 1BOTF.

lol. Propagandist for the Pohlads. Hilarious. Trust me, I have no desire to carry any water for the Pohlad family. Were those deals not done at arms length? Do you not believe that the Twins have brought value to the Twins Cities/Minneapolis? Do you really think the Twins have bad owners? Again, the expectation from some is that owners should be blindly willing to spend in order to satisfy their egos and/or deliver a championship to their city. Sure, both those factors can be relevant, but it’s just not the same for an every owner. The Pohlads on the whole have been solid owners. The product they deliver has been overall good. The franchise is well run for the most part. Have the Mets done that much better? How about the Angels? Which AL Central team’s ownership would you swap for the Pohlads? How about the AL West, other than Texas? I have no idea what the annual cash flow or the operating margins of the Twins are - I’d wager that they are mostly positive but very lean. And they are lean for precisely the reasons you point out - they want to win and, yes, they want to deliver a championship to the Twins Cities. However, there should be no expectation that they, or anyone, should run a business at a annual loss - regardless of capital appreciation,

Exactly my point - they shouldn’t have to. Ever. Thank you.

Thank you for laying this all out. So next year costs go up and expected revenues go down. Some things might change around the edges, of course. But the directional gist is correct. Do my fellow TDers really think that our owners have some sort of civic duty to run the team at a cash loss year in and year out? Should they just be satisfied with capital appreciation and forget operating earnings/cash flow? Are we as fans not receiving a fairly consistent high level of baseball entertainment from our supposedly parsimonious owners? Sure, we don’t have Stevie Cohen as our owner or the revenues of the Dodgers or Yankees. But overall we are a pretty well run franchise that does most things the right way. I’ll take our level of entertainment and success over a lot of the rest of the league, including some bigger market teams.

25 innings all in relief. 6.31 ERA. Headrick is hardly banging down the door as our “next up” starter over the first month of the season. Dobnak was hurt last season. Regardless, if either even makes the list it will come down to performance.

Only until about May 1 or so - so basically Dobnak is #3 (behind Varland and SWR) on the list for about the first month. The others probably need a bit more time to get acclimated, etc. - but then I agree with you re Dobnak’s place in the theoretical hierarchy subject to performance.

DeSclafani breaks camp as #5. In order, Varland, SWR and Dobnak get first crack at needed starts before May 1 or so (all have MLB experience) with Varland the clear first choice unless his performance is suffering. As the season progresses, Canterino, Headrick, and Festa could be added to the available to start list with the above three - the hot hand could get the nod. Lewis and Raya are longer shots to start unless their performance truly merits a call up. Around the deadline, an additional starter could be added if we are still contending and/or could be expected to make a real run for the pennant,

FDG, I personally am on the complete other side of the fence on your take. I respect it, but I disagree. I’m quite excited about where this team is headed this season, way more than last season when the team was filled with a bunch of “one and dones”. We will be better than competitive, we have one of the top five projected pitching staffs in the majors (when were we last able to say that), and we get to see a bunch of young, exciting talent. The team will be good and the entertainment value high.

Sorry Cody - I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree with much of it. First, you make is sound like the Twins’ ownership and FO are nefarious, duplicitous actors. That’s a pretty harsh take, even in this day and age where everything one reads is essentially a lie. The TV deal has been in flux for quite a while and the organization never held the right cards to be able to drive their preferred deal. The team has been very transparent about their payroll targets and a) as you point out, the roster costs are going up next year and b) this year is not done yet (perhaps there is some cash awaiting to be spent at the deadline). You cannot categorically say this projected lineup is worse than last year’s at this time. A healthy Buxton on its own might make this team better. There is no question our bullpen is significantly better and deeper. The jury is still out on how Paddock and DeSclafani will perform vs. Gray and Maeda, and Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland should all be better than where they were expected to be at this time last year. Sure, we lost the oft injured fan favorite in Polanco, but Julien and Wallner are way better than Larnach and Miranda. And let’s not forget how much better Jeffers is now. Last year’s season was saved by those three players. Let’s just see how it goes before condemning the team’s leadership this off-season.

Actually, I think Buxton has reverse splits and Rocco wants his bat in the lineup. There’s a decent chance on the 50% of days he’s not starting in CF (and those days will always be against RHs) Buxton DHs about 1/2 the time. Castro gets those starts and Martin would be the logical choice to be the last player. But your point is an excellent one - we have a hole at DH against RHs. Let’s see how the FO solves it.

That may be the case. But it still doesn’t mean what I wrote is incorrect - he’d probably (or should) bat 9th and he can’t hit an off speed pitch. I’d think Martin with a higher OBP and speed even as a right handed hitter might be a better option.

Ted accurately describes the extent of our “bench” on the farm to be called up in case of injury (excluding Lee, of course). Not a bad set of choices, really. Each could have a case for the final spot. Another addition is probably the front runner. But in the event we stand pat, it will all come down to who performs best in ST and, to a lesser extent, Buxton’s health (in which case, the final spot must go to someone who can play CF). Miranda and Severino probably have the toughest path in any event. Sure wish we had Steer or CES in the role, but, alas, we gave them away for less than a bag of magic beans,

Geez, I’d hope not. Our DH against righties (75% of starts) would bat 9th and can’t hit an off speed pitch? That would be a disaster.

And maybe Yasser Mercedes too. But not Salas on the IF list.

Including last year’s two rookies, the Twins have seven legit non-1B (although one or more of them could end up there) infielder prospects coming over the next three or so seasons: Lewis (now) Julien (now) Lee (2024) Schobel (2026) Keaschall (2026) Andrade (2027) Miller (2026) That’s a solid level of talent with decent spaced timelines coupled with a definite weighting to near term projectability. Interestingly, including Wallner, we have seven outfielders as well: Wallner (now) Jenkins (2026) ERod (2025) Gabby (2026) Martin (2024) Winokur (2027) Rosario (2026) Pretty similar to the infield situation, except the projectability is weighted more toward the later years. ERod showing up and producing at a high level in 2025 is a very important piece assuming at least one of Wallner or Martin can be a reliable above average everyday player.

I wouldn’t be surprised by the FO making a big move before the season begins. I’d love Bellinger or either pitcher, but that just doesn’t seem likely. Instead, I get the sense that they are going to keep their powder dry to see how the season develops and then possibly make a defining move before the deadline. For the time being the FO likes the strategy and the team they’ve put together. But they still have some cash in their pocket reserved for a stretch run addition.

Erod is left handed. What was I thinking. Of course he is, duh. My bad.

I’m beginning to think the FO is keeping their spending powder a bit dry to have the capacity to make a biggish pre deadline move to put the roster in true contending shape.

On second thought, I’m not sure a Correa like deal (the first one) for Bellinger makes sense. Why? A. If Bellinger has a good season, he opts out, If he has a bad season, we overpaid and are stuck with him for at least the next year. We’ve seen this movie before. B. We already have a LH outfielder in Kepler whom we’d probably try to move if we signed Bellinger. But Kepler costs 1/3 as much and might produce as much as Bellinger. And since both would essentially be on one year deals, is Bellinger worth $20MM net for the one season? C, By mid season ERod as a RHed bat might be a better overall fit on the roster for 1/30th the price. D. We signed Santana to play 1B already. Sorry Ghostrider, but the 1B pattern is full. Yeah, so if we want to up payroll by $20MM this season, we might as well go with a starter.

We can only dream…… But if we are dreaming, can we move Kepler to help pay for him? Bellinger would certainly hedge out Buxton for the next three seasons and offer a premium transition to Roy Hobbs (aka Walker Jenkins). Maybe Boras owes us one and we can get a sweet 3 yr deal. Maybe something like Correa’s first deal with us (3 yrs with opt outs). It does make so much sense. I’d take an outfield of Bellinger, Buxton (when healthy), Wallner, ERod, Castro and Martin over the next three years.

Ok, I’ll try another idea. Sign Bellinger.

The #1 (and only truly dial moving ) way to “win back” Twins fans: WIN! *The team will probably draw 1.5MM fans or so anyway. If they want 2MM, they need a legitimate AL pennant contending team out of the gate. All the other strategies are just edge nippers.

Thanks Nick - super article. Yes, I’ve been one of those quite vocal on the TD about the Twins pursuing this type of strategy for years. The reasons just seemed so obvious: 1. The game has changed - starters, with a few exceptions, just don’t rack up innings anymore. There are lots of reasons for this (protecting expensive arms, wanting to play matchups, etc.); however, for virtually all teams there are just are more reliever innings to cover. 2. While starters are throwing fewer innings, their price has continued to skyrocket. Their $/IP has been going up, so the inverse, production/$ has been going down. Yes, production/$ matters to many teams, including our beloved Twins. If innings are innings (as Nick wrote), why pay more for an out? 3. Even if you are willing to pay more for an out, there is enough depth in today’s world of pitching that a fresh arm coming in, often matched up to the opposing team’s lineup, has a higher likelihood of getting outs than starter facing that lineup for a third or fourth time (with familiarity and fatigue being the biggest issues). The data supports this. 4. Speaking of fatigue, a deep, reliable pen actually allows a manager to keep his starters more fresh through the course of a season. The higher relative cost of starters, in addition to true starter depth being possibly the hardest thing to have on a team, makes late season starter freshness incredible important. 5. Reliever depth, on the margin, is much easier to come by, and, with some exceptions of course, much cheaper. Several high leverage mainstays are critical and hard to find; however, the pool of potential candidates who can reasonably (again, production/$) be expected to get three outs in the middle innings when matched up attractively is pretty high. Yes, bullpens can wear down too - but their depth is easier to replace and the marginal cost of a worn out reliever (expected to throw one inning) is way less than that of a starter. 6. Is there anything more psychologically challenging to an opposing team than knowing that, if they don’t have the lead headed into the 7th, they very likely have little chance of winning? The Astros employ this psych ops very effectively. Oh, and it works the other way as well: your starters feel a lot better (i.e. maybe pitch better) knowing the support they have coming behind them. This year is our best opportunity to see the true value of this strategy: our payroll is down and we have pen (on paper) with both solid high leverage performers coupled with solid deep (12+ options) depth. I for one am eager to see the results.

Unless the Pohlads are looking to build a new stadium and need a sales tax hike to help pay for it, an extension now is premature. Let’s see how season progresses and revisit in the somewhat near future.

With DeSclafani and Staumont showing up 100%, the only roster battle, other than because of an outlier performance (both good or bad) and/or injury, is for the last spot on the position player bench. It appears that Larnach and Martin are the leading contenders, but one cannot rule out the veteran Goodrum. Hellman and Prato are longer shots.