TNtwins85

Isn’t it funny how the 2000’s Twins were built to compete in the regular season and got there several times yet weren’t built to compete in the playoffs. The Falvey/Baldelli Twins were built to compete in the playoffs with the matchups/HR’s/high strikeout pitching staffs yet can’t get there. Maybe in the next 10 years they’ll finally find the perfect mix. I predict a Twins World Series in the year 2032.

I agree with each of your points except 4. Whatever people in minnesota think of Rocco he’s been a well respected baseball voice for quite a while. People may not line up to bring him in as a manager but much like popkins last year he’ll catch on with somebody right away and most likely thrive. It has more to do with the Twins than it does every other club. There’s something to be said about guys like gardenhire. Despite not playing the analytics he got a lot more out of way less talent and held his star players accountable to play the game the right way.

If the Twins hope enough maybe they can get a similar deal. Unfortunately hope runs out and he signs for $25M a year for 4-5 years. Oh well, we hoped we could get him but reality set in.

Love this move. He looked good last night. Even at 93-94 the pitch movement with the unconventional delivery looked quality reliever-esque. He located it well down in the zone. The cutter had decent movement but I was more impressed with his command of it. Was missing in the right spots. If the cutter could turn more into a sweeper this guy will pile up K’s with the command I seen last night.

His arm doesn’t make up for his terrible routes and jumps in RF. We’ve got 2 guys in St. Paul who are superior to him in RF right now. Give him a 1B mitt. As it stands right now as much as John Bonnes brings up Kody Clemens and Gleeman poo poos him and constantly points out how Wallner has the better OPS Clemens and Wall er are essentially the same player. I don’t know the numbers but Clemens seems to come up clutch more times than not compared to Wallner. Make whatever meaning you want from that but I’m over the Wallner experiment. If his arm is so good then put him in the bullpen at this point. Maybe he brings more value there.

Also, ERA is a poor way to measure success. I don’t think they should resign him though.

“The difference between an $85M payroll, a $115M payroll, and a $145M payroll becomes obvious when looking at the details. At $85M, the Twins likely need to cut further. At $115M, they can tread water, making modest additions. At $145M, they’d have up to $50M to shop, enough to chase one premium free agent or even multiple difference makers.” Ok, this is a good baseline to see what payroll will be as it stands. Let’s just speculate that with the Pohlads debt being essentially paid off they could operate as a normal business. Let’s say they have $50M to “shop”. Who would they “shop” for? All the talk about spending money buying free agents yet is there anyone who is going to be a FA this off-season that anyone here would want to buy? What aging 30 something would everyone here be ok with giving $20M+ a year to? I know it sucks that the Pohlads didn t supplant the 2023 team. I was a staunch critic of “right sizing”. But after getting rid of an aging, declining, overpriced player everyone is gonna be mad that they don’t want to go buy another one? Money is great to have to supplant a roster that is close like in ‘23. That didn’t happen. I don’t want them to have a payroll of $170m right now. That means they bought a group of aging free agents who are soon to be overpriced. A very bad outcome as it doesn’t guarantee winning while guaranteeing being really really bad in 2 years when their top prospects are establishing themselves and they’re strapped by aging, expensive, underperforming players. A good outcome as I see it. The Twins do nothing. They say they want to annually “compete”. If that’s even remotely true they stand pat. Baltimore calls because they’re window is open and they can’t repeat another underwhelming season. The Twins trade Joe Ryan and SWR for Adley Rutschman, Coby Mayo, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Luis De Leon. They sign Devin Williams to a bounce back 1yr contract. After that they put they’re pitching development to work a turn 1-2 of all these young SP’s into RP’s. They don’t trade Lopez unless a team overwhelmes them which I doubt based on his contract and injury. Ryan will be the prize and if they trade him for impact bats that’s a win. Not spending a bunch of money on aging 30yo’s.

Maybe in the course of the season when you go down with an injury it’s a serious goal in the spirit of competition and proving to oneself that you are back and can still compete. Oooorrrr… all of these guys are just automatons to the GM and owners bidding in order to get them the most money in the off-season. We all know Pablo Lopez’s mentality so with that in mind I wonder which of those options is true.

What was Justin Ishbia right about? I’m still trying to figure it out. Was he right about buying the team based on the fact he knew his new team would sweep the Twins? Was he pitching the 9th and threw the right pitch at the right time to get the big out? Did he make a bunch of great trades at the deadline to lift the White Sox talent level to ultimately sweep the Twins? I’m wondering how he figured into the win last night.

Love the show guys! It has become my new go to Twins podcast! Both of you guys seem very measured and on the same page unlike other more profile podcasts focused on the Twins. Great show fellas!

David Festa is not plagued by Twins development. Without their focus on taking a flyer on a college pitcher in the later rounds he would probably be selling cars right now without them. Add Joe Ryan, Bailey ober, Pablo Lopez, Zebby Mathew’s, Jake Odorizzi and any number of guys to that list. Believe it or not Falvey brought this Cleveland model to the Twins in his own way. Joe Ryan is a prime example and just because we don’t have 5 “Aces” doesn’t mean it doesn’t work. It’s a pitching pipeline. Not an “Ace” pipeline. Yeah, the twins don’t spend money on Big pitchers because that’s not what you want to do. How much money have the Twins saved by taking lower level low signing bonus guys and turned them into #2, 3, 4, 5 type guys? Granted if the process were implemented better you could supplant expensive hitters with the money saved on not having to buy pitching. That’s where they failed but despite what Gleeman yammers on about the Twins do a good job on pitching. Go watch any other team trot out guys at the back of the rotation that can’t throw a strike to save their lives. This doesn’t even mention the bullpen success’. I think people here get too locked into the Twins to realize where other teams are pitching wise. Hard to see the forest through the trees around here. David Festa should be thankful the Twins turned him into what he is today. It’s not a failed experiment. It’s just the nature of pitchers.

So we should just never intend to compete, articles should never be written and fans should just anticipate 90 loss seasons until when? You sure are lucky you’re not a pirates fan. You can always choose to be a Dodgers fan.

Right, if he comes up in ‘26 and has a solid season probably costs you another $10-15M over an 8 yr contract. If he keeps improving that price goes up considerably. His agent is Boras so might be a hard bargain. The faster you sign him before debuting the more likely it even happens.

I’ve been wondering something along the line of this only crazier. Before the new CBA do we see a top prospect get what is almost essentially a “lifetime” contract? Let’s say $200 over 15 years? Obviously you’re not paying him $13M a year but it gradually goes up and then down after say his age 31 season. With the new CBA coming is it something the Twins could do with Jenkins? Hell, even $120M over 10 years. Can and should this be a new thing? Your repose brought this question into my head again but it doesn’t sound all bad. I guess I’d rather spend $100M+ on a 21 yo than a 29 yo.

Very much agree. The Correa experiment showed us( even though we should have known based on how other teams have faired with long term contracts to players in their 30’s) that the Twins need to pick the lane that Nick spells out here. When you’re a mid to below average market team and a guy like this comes along lock him up! If you can get Jenkins to sign a say 7-8 year deal in the $70-90M range you do that. Players in their 20’s are gonna deliver value way beyond what an aging player will no matter the downside. He’s gonna hit. Don’t worry about the first week in AAA. He’s done this at every level so far and once he figures out the level it’s consistent 300/400/400 every time. I give it 50/50 odds he makes the team out of ST. Not because I want it as a fan but my eye test tells me he figures it out and fast.

Jeffers isn’t a Boras client.

Whole heartedly agree! Around here though people still seem to think this is a video game and your favorite team just signs all the good players every time. The good players always play great into their mid to late 30’s and when you need to trade for a player you just send 3 D grade prospects with a Trevor Larnach type and you get whomever you want no questions asked. Be careful with logic and spelling out the truth for people. They can’t emotionally handle it.

I love how the Twins are pushing him. He’s done the same thing at every level when pushed. I watch and he adjusts the same same way. He’s struggles right away. Then he adjusts and leans on his immense plate discipline. May not hit well but doesn’t swing at bad pitches. Eventually the singles come with the good AB’s and plate discipline. After a few weeks the singles turn into doubles. Eventually once he’s comfortable the hard hits and homers come. All while keeping the previously stated plate discipline. After a month or two he settles in and the batting line is around .300/.400/.400 usually a bit better but that’s the bottom line. All while being one of the youngest in the league he’s in. A stud!

I think you keep Pablo because with his salary you don’t get the haul you expect. Ryan though… if a haul is to be had you deal him. People need to understand where the Twins are. They’re not and shouldn’t be a team that signs 30 something year old pitchers to extensions. You operate like Cleveland and when he’s high you deal him for a haul. No need to trade Pablo. You ride out his contract and he brings stability to the young guys. I’ve suggested many times on here in the last week a Ryan and SWR to Baltimore for Rutschman, Mayo and Bradfield package. If we can do that and somehow piece together some kind of competent bullpen they compete next year.

I would absolutely love a Rutschman for Ober trade as I still see Rutschman as having massive upside and he slides in to this lineup perfectly. Especially in a rotation with Jeffers and at 1B when not catching. I just think Baltimore values him more than us Twins fans think. He’s got one more year of control as well and helps the bridge to Tait. If it’s Ober I think you’ve gotta package another SP to get Rutschman.

Good article! I love when people can see the positives and how the Twins can and should be competitive with a few tweaks at this point. If Ober can have a solid few weeks I believe they try to move him. This team is not as far off as people think and if they can piece together a bullpen they’re right there.

Every game they bring up how Martin has changed his swing and where he starts with his hands. It’s obvious he’s more to the ball. Love what he’s been doing since he came up. Putting professional AB’s together every game. If he can hit and get on base like he has I don’t care if he can’t field anywhere. Great article.

I’m sorry for rambling on and it was not directly pointed towards you. I assure you. I didn’t intend on blowing you up but this word tanking and the implications of what that means are so far from what is going on. This team was built to be highly competitive this year coming off a disappointing collapse. This should have been done last offseason but that would have illicitly drawn the same outrage. Instead they ran it back and even got the Pohlads to throw in a few bucks to sign Bader and Coulombe. All in all this team was expected to win anywhere in the realm of 85-90 games. What happened? All aspects of this team failed to perform. With the deadline being what it is the Twins had bullets that other teams wanted. Did they need to trade some of them? No. Did they get value? Absolutely. They got value for guys that were tradeable. That’s the key word. “Tanking” and 40% of the roster were key phrases after. Let’s go over all this. Correa was massively overpaid as all FA contracts present. His defense is showing signs of slipping and he simply struggled to hit this year. The Twins were lucky to get out of that. They can’t afford to play in that end of the pool. Duran- great value. They got 2 top 100 prospects just like they stated. Whether anyone likes it this is massive value for a RP. Paddack- impending FA. Gotta get something for him. Bader- impending FA. Same as Paddack. Coulombe- impending FA. Castro- impending FA. Stewart- head scratcher but with his history unload him for something before he gets hurt…. Which he did. Jax- wanted out. Got good value for a guy wanting out. Varland- a head scratcher but you essentially got 1 solid OF no matter what anyone thinks and a good SP prospect for an almost 28yo solid RP. Good value. France- impending FA- a throw in with Varland that probably got a better prospect in Roden. Really they traded 38.5% of the roster and they were gonna already trade impending FA’s which constituted 19.2% of the roster. So really what people are mad about is 19.3% of the roster. Why have we heard 40%? Cause it gets people more riled up. We can be mad about the whole situation but to overstate what actually happened is foolish and childish. Nobody is tanking. The Twins are not rebuilding. As much as everyone hates Falvey what was he to do? Everyone complains about what he did but what was the solution? Run it back again? The owners and FO put themselves in this spot by A. Not investing after ‘23 and B. Not doing anything at the last 2 deadlines or shaking up the core last offseason. This was inevitable if you look at it logically. Saying the Twins don’t deserve they’re draft spot because they did what they needed to do is so shortsighted and based out of emotion and not logic. They’re not “tanking” because that’s impossible and is just an inflammatory word meant to drive buzz for the MLBPA. When people say that word they’re falling into the trap of being inflammatory.

Can we stop with this word “tanking” please. The definition of tanking in sports is to deliberately lose or fail to finish a game or season in this context. Teams in MLB are not ”tanking” in any sense of the word. Especially in MLB where there is almost never a consensus player in the draft who will change the fortunes of a team immediately. A-Rod, Skenes, Harper and Strasberg are probably the closest thing to what would be described as such. Yet that didn’t happen. One guy does not make you a contender in baseball. In MLB and NFL it’s all about number of picks and number of high picks. Can’t trade picks in MLB per se. Unlike the NFL in MLB it’s all about development. Are certain owners handicapping their teams? Of course(Pittsburgh). Are certain franchises inept and the analytics part of the game? Yes(Rockies) Are particular franchises a straight up mess? Absolutely( Miami, A’s, White Sox). But are Major League Baseball teams “TANKING” as per the definition? NO!!! Anyone that has ever played competitive baseball at any meaningful competitive level above HIgh School knows there is way too much at stake for a team to “tank”. Tanking is a buzz word put into our vocabularies by high up MLB people to create a talking point about tanking in order for talking heads to spew it about anytime a terrible team does bad. Despite being hamstrung by the Pohlads this team was built to win. As good as the team should have been they severely underperformed. What gets you the most at the trade deadline? Pitching. What did the Twins have? Pitching. Along with a handful of pending FA’s. Like it or not this team needed a shakeup. You can’t trade the hitters that are underperforming. They have no value and you need them. What did they have? In house developed bullpen arms. Like it or not they believe they can do that again and they stocked up on arms to do that. Are the Twins gonna sign Ryan and Ober and Lopez to extensions past they’re contracts? No! Logic tells you to load up on arms for the foreseeable future. The Twins are not gonna sign a big arm. Makes no sense to them. Complain about it all you want and complain about it if they trade Ryan or Lopez but it all makes sense whether you like it or not. But they are absolutely not “Tanking”. They’re not in “rebuild” mode. They’re not trying to do any of that. For what it’s worth the white Sox from last year didn’t “tank”. They’re development of all those big time prospects failed miserably. What were they to do? Hold onto those guys for the draft pick? Even the Sox know that is stupid. The Angels are the best example. They should have traded Ohtani and Trout when they could have. Why? Because 5 prospects are better than one. They could have built half a team with the prospects they could have got for those two. What are they now? Mired in mediocrity with a Mike Trout who can barely play 100 games and an absolute shell of what once was. Ohtani? Well, he haunts that team from across town. “Tanking” is an NFL and NBA term because those leagues operate much different. In baseball if teams were to tru ally “tank” it would eventually catch up with even the owners. And it would never fly with the MLBPA. It’s simply a word used by the MLBPA to get its veterans paid and it’s a lever to get fans up in arms repeating a word that’s continually repeated to them.

The new CBA is already playing out. It’s gonna be a salary cap for a salary floor. They’ll argue over specifics right up until it’s time for ST and then magically everything will come together. Season maybe starts later than normal but no games are lost. With 2020 still in their minds the owners are not ready to lose any revenue again.