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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Not sure this is really true; Wallner and Larnach both came up as corner OF and have played about to expectations defensively. Lewis was a SS in the minors and slotted in just fine at 3B. Miranda has needed to learn 3B on the job, but there's also about where the opportunity was for him as he came up in the minors: his preferred position was 2B, but we had a bunch of guys there. Julien had been playing 2B in the minors, but barely had more than 2 years in the minors before coming up to MLB. The missed minor league year in 2020 messed up development for a lot of guys. It's just not that unusual for prospects to move around defensively as teams always want to try and keep them at the more demanding defensive position as long as they reasonably can. I think Martin will be fine in the OF, and I'm ok with him going back down when Buxton comes back. (and props to the Twins for having Buck do a rehab stint in Saint Paul, regardless of whether he likes it or not) Hopefully he'll play CF-LF in Saint Paul to get more comfortable there. I'd have given him more time in CF over LF (he's played it a lot more in the minors and done well there) but that's the way it goes. He's far from a lost cause
  2. jmlease1
    Compared to Delmon Young and some of the other nonsense (Willingham and his 4 feet of range!) we've run out in the outfield, I'm not worried about Martin.
  3. jmlease1
    Excellent start by Ohl. Interesting pitcher: doesn't walk a lot of guys, keeps the ball in the park, and looks like someone who can chew up a bunch of innings. I'll be watching where his H/9 lands at the end of the season; if he's keeping it around 8 or so I think that'll be a good sign. Would not be surprised at all if he gets some time at AAA this season; he's already got 125 innings at AA now and he's been effective. He's not overwhelming or anything, but he's been getting it done. Great to see him rack up 10 K's! E-Rod just rolls along, doesn't he? Seems to know the strike zone pretty darn well. he doesn't seem to have problems hitting against LHP either, which would be exciting if his relatively neutral splits continue. Not bad at all for guy at 21 in AA. If he's able to refine his approach to make a little more contact on pitches he deigns to swing at...goodness he's going to be a heck of a hitter.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm really happy to see Festa doing better in limiting the free passes recently, but until he gets the BB/9 under 4 it's still a fair concern. That said, he clearly has the pitches to compete and I expect to see him debut in MLB some time this season. I think I ranked him 5th in my Twins prospect ratings? This is what you want from your player development group, to be able to build up a late round pick into a viable MLB player. It's great scouting too, because he wasn't exactly destroying the competition at Seton Hall; he had a fine senior season, but just ok K rates, not a ton of innings to judge from, etc. But they saw something they could build with and have increased his velocity where he can compete. I think he'll be competing for a rotation spot in 2025.
  5. jmlease1
    I hate the Yankees. I've always hated the Yankees. I hate losing to the Yankees. I hate tuning into a national baseball broadcast when the Twins are playing the Yankees and they spend the first 14 minutes of the pre-game only talking about the Yankees, and then give the Twins 6 minutes (and show they don't know very much about the Twins either, spending more time on Carlos Santana than Ryan Jeffers). Last segment was a dumb betting angle, and of course 2 of the 3 bets were about the Yankees. I now hate TBS almost as much as I hate the Yankees. not a good game for the Twins. Castro was really rough out there and the whole OF defense was unimpressive. Paddack was disappointing; just too hittable and struggled to finish guys off. The bullpen did well to give the team a chance, but the offense was very meek. I'm increasingly concerned about the Twins inability to draw walks; we're bottom 5 in baseball in BB/G and we need more baserunners. Not getting a single walk last night really hurt. I hope the easy grounders and fly balls were more aesthetically pleasing enough for people, but I'd rather draw some free passes and start filling up the basepaths
  6. jmlease1
    yeah, I saw this too. I'd like more information on it, but there seems to be some on-field and off-field reasons that Alcala is not favored by the organization and it's almost certainly more than just the manager. But there hasn't been much that's gotten out about it, other than Disco Dan mentioning the bit about not covering home. From a performance perspective, he's been effective in 1 inning stints and can't seem to go 2 innings. the option issue (and his prior lack of health/availability) I'm sure are part of why he's getting bounced up and down, but there's more going on here that they're not saying.
  7. jmlease1
    You've obviously settled on a narrative here, but I don't think you have a lot of evidence to back up the statement that the Twins only care about HRs and don't care about defense. If they didn't care about defense, why would they have brought Vazquez in as a catcher or Santana in to play 1B? I hope for his sake that Miller has figured something out at the plate, but keep in mind he hit 4 of his HRs in a 3 game stretch and hasn't hit one since. So is it that he's figured something out, or he had a good weekend? Is his improvement at the plate because of the Dodgers superior coaching and development or because he's repeating the level? The reality is that offense is more impactful in winning games, and this is one of the reasons Kiersey hasn't gotten a chance yet: there are still real questions about his hitting. He broke out in AA after repeating the level at 26. When he moved up to AAA last season he hardly lit the league on fire, and that was 100% a hitters environment. he's having a great season so far, and I'm happy to have him in the system, but it's fair to wonder if he's capable of being a league average hitter, and as a LH hitter can he fill a need to whack LHP? Because he didn't in 2023.
  8. jmlease1
    Looks like the conversion to the bullpen is working for Stankiewicz. Be nice if he could tick those Ks up a little higher, but the WHIP is impressive and he's always been good at keeping the ball in the park. Curious to see how he does in Wichita this season and what kind of future he has as a bullpen piece. Good for Sabato in having a strong start to his season at AA, but it's only 5 games. Maybe he can earn a promotion if he can keep this up into July, but there's a reason he slid through the Rule 5 draft.
  9. jmlease1
    Part of my concern was that Santana would get exposed by playing too much; considering how poorly he's still hitting against RHP, I think that's borne out at least a little. He's having an excellent May, but struggled so much early that he's still not quite a league average hitter, which is not great at 1B. I'm glad he's not washed up, but I'm not ready to definitively say I was wrong about Santana either. While Kirilloff's struggles make is reasonable to run Santana out every day, I still think he's going to get exposed if he's playing too much. Frankly, when Lewis comes back I hope that Miranda sticks and gets some time at 1B.
  10. jmlease1
    Just keep piling up those series wins, Twins. I love seeing it, especially on the road. Good job by Funderburk getting it over to Duran to finish it; getting Jax another day off seems like a good idea right now. Ober was pretty great. Toronto battled him hard, especially early in fouling off pitches and taking him deep into counts, but he didn't get rattled and didn't let them off the hook with cheap walks. Excellent performance, and love that he got into the 7th. (Toronto only had 2 hits and drew 1 walk! love it) I'm definitely worried about Kirilloff; he looks pretty bad at the plate right now. I don't know if he has options left but I'd definitely ask if he's fighting an injury right now. Because he sure does look like the "Kirilloff ain't healthy" Alex right now. Big hit by Santana, who has to be around league average now. And after such a slow start that's not bad. (Margot on the other hand, still looks bad) Good baserunning by Correa to score on Kepler's double. He ran hard the whole way and scored pretty easily, but that additional run sure helped.
  11. jmlease1
    As per usual when Noah Miller comes up, people leave off the fact that we got Rayne Doncon back in that deal, a prospect with similar value. And while Miller is hitting much better this season, the fact that the Dodgers are having him repeat the level does suggest that they might have some concerns over his bat too. Margot isn't working out very well so far; his defense has been very disappointing and if anyone here says they knew that he was going to have the worst defensive season of his career and look like he might be in severe decline as a fielder at age 29...I'm sorry, I don't think I believe you. He's been functional at the plate against LHP, which is the primary reason he was brought here...but he's unplayable right now against RHP, so that combined with poor looking defense makes him not very useful. When to cut loose a veteran player is a bit more complicated than we'd like. It's not like playing fantasy baseball, where in most leagues there's always another veteran OF that you can pick up and take a flier on. If we cut Margot now, he's gone and we're not even halfway through May. And if Kiersey and Martin don't produce, then are we in trouble? The other aspect is the Kepler/Santana aspect of this. I was getting ready to cut Kepler loose at midseason (as were a lot of people here) and that would have been a massive mistake. The snap-reactions on Santana from his early struggles would have run him out of town too...after today's performance he's back to being almost a league-average hitter (offense is down this year, an OPS around .700 is better than you think). Is Margot Gallo or Kepler? Is this who he's going to be, or can he pull himself back up like Santana? I suspect the Twins will give him more rope. I'm not opposed to it right now, but once Buxton and Lewis get back I feel like Margot had better show something or we might be able to fairly say we've seen enough. Kiersey is doing really well this season and that's great. I love having depth like him at AAA, because I remember what it was like 2 years ago when the season got ruined because we didn't have enough competent outfielders. We're 1/4 of the way through the season, and early games matter just as much as late games...but let's not pretend there's not risk is dumping veterans before summer even starts.
  12. jmlease1
    what counts as a "frontline starter"? If it's "someone you'd trust to start a playoff game" then we have several guys who have that potential. If it's "#1/ace" then maybe not...though the jury is still out on someone like Soto who has immense upside, but is 18. If the issue is that all of their pitching prospects have questions they need to answer...get used to it, because it's perishingly rare to have a pitching prospect with no questions. Raya has had some injury issues in the past and the Twins are clearly being cautious in his development, and they've been pretty clear about it. I don't think they're really hiding anything. YMMV on whether they're doing the right thing by keeping pitch counts down and not letting Raya throw more (I've been skeptical) but there are a lot of pitching injuries these days, so maybe they're right.
  13. jmlease1
    He's off to an outstanding start. I'm impressed with how he's added velocity while still maintaining that great control. I'm glad to see him in AA; as a college pitcher who is a little older, how he does against more advanced hitters will count a lot more for his prospect standing than beating up on A-ball kids. It'll be interesting to see if he ends up paring back his pitch mix as he continues this season or if he can maintain the full slate. But even if he drops 1-2 of these to focus on his strongest offerings it's a heck of a base to work from. He's definitely trending up. He'll never make the national prospect lists; he's turning 24 this month and that will DQ him from a lot of lists simply based on age. (there are prospect evaluators who will always prefer the 19 year-old kid in A-ball with measurables over the 24 year-old in AA with results) But from a Twins perspective, who cares about rankings? He's developing into a potential rotation guy and on a path to debut in 2025. Reminds me a little of Joe Ryan in that respect.
  14. jmlease1
    Very nice start by Festa. I still have concerns about his control and the free passes, but the stuff is real and this was the kind of start that has people excited about him. Not the first excellent outing from him this season, and he's on a good path. I still think Varland is the next man up if/when we need another starter, if possible, but Festa is doing what he needs to do. I like seeing him go 6, so it looks like they're letting him go a little deeper as the season rolls on. Be great for him to be pushing for a chance in June. Keaschall is playing like a guy who wants a mid-season promotion. Worth keeping an eye on his power production to see if he can tick that slugging up a bit more, but he's doing very well and looks to have a solid professional approach.
  15. jmlease1
    Tough loss. Toronto had not been hitting well, so to let them up off the mat isn't great. But it's not like there isn't talent there. Shame that SWR struggled so much against his former organization. How he learns to finish off MLB hitters is going to define his success and he didn't get it done here. Bullpen really got torched, but it's sort of funny to see the overreactions here; a week ago people were clamoring for Cole Sands to be the set-up man, now you have declarations that he's nothing more than a mop-up guy. Jackson's the guy to be the most concerned about: he seems to have dropped a little velocity and he's not been particularly effective, and at his age that's worrisome. Okert has had 2 poor outings in a row, but overall he's been good enough that throwing him on the fire at this point makes little sense. But with Thielbar & Okert in the 'pen we probably don't need Funderburk to be a mop-up lefty. Not having Stewart or Topa is stretching the bullpen...but as noted by Gleeman & the Geek: this is what happens when you're in a lot of close games and winning. The Alcala situation is interesting. He'd been successful as a 1 inning guy, very good against RH and someone that looked like he could be trusted in the 7th inning. But he's been used to go 2 innings this year and the second inning hasn't gone well, so is it that he's not great or being used wrong? There was also a note from Hayes that Alcala is in the Twins doghouse for a bunch of reasons and it sounded like it was about both in-game actions (failing to cover home, etc) and outside the game (unknow?). Who knows. Get 'em on sunday and win the series. Any series win is a good one, especially on the road. No panic.
  16. jmlease1
    some of it is probably cyclical and will bounce back next season (or maybe even this one), but teams are also incentivized to not stash their best prospects in AAA in order to gain an extra year of team control the way they used to, so that might have some impact as well. Kala'i Rosario is having a solid season so far in AA. He's not destroying everything in his path like Emma, but he's not doing badly at all for his age-21 season in AA. He's a guy I keep watching.
  17. jmlease1
    There almost needs to be a new category for players like SWR (and Varland, or Martin, or Wallner) where they're not really prospects any longer but haven't established themselves as MLB players quite yet. They're the unfinished products who have the talent to play in MLB but might not have the finishing touches to put themselves in MLB for good. Because at a certain point it really doesn't make any sense to compare SWR to someone like Soto, when they're so far removed from each other in level. I've always been a fan of SWR, and he was the poster child for how to get your developmental cycle completely screwed up, so seeing him having success is exciting. Three organizations before he turned 21, missing an entire (and critical) season because of the pandemic, getting an early promotion to AA that he almost certainly wasn't ready for, having a season interrupted by the national team where he didn't even get to pitch...by the time he got to MN I'd argue he was working on talent and guts alone. Great work by him and the staff to get him to a place where he can be a professional pitcher. Where he can be consistent enough to make a mechanical change and stick with it. I think he's still going to have a bump or two along the way, but I would not be shocked at all for him to be a rotation mainstay for 2025.
  18. jmlease1
    Excellent game from Ryan, marred only by the IKF homer. But Ryan was really good and the Jays certainly have talent in that lineup, even if several of them have been struggling so far this season. The HR was frustrating because it's IKF, but overall Ryan has been doing a good job limiting HRs this season and I'm really impressed with how he's shrunk the free passes so far this season. He looks like he has more confidence in his off-speed pitches this year (I like that splitter a lot, and it's been very effective for him) and he's doing a good job mixing his pitches, which should let his fastball play up a bit. Still need a little more from the RH hitters when we face a tough lefty like Kikuchi (who has been a monster this season) but we scraped through it. Jax has wobbled a bit lately, but I think he'll be fine. Hopefully we can find some room to give him an extra night off here and there. Time for some other guys to step up. I loved seeing Duran come in for the 8th: he's an absolutely dominant reliever, and I hate it when those guys get turned into "9th inning guys". I'd much rather have Duran be the fireman and shut down the opposition's best hitters in the late innings than come in with a 3-run lead in the 9th to face 6-7-8. Good start to the series. Keep it rolling, Twins!
  19. jmlease1
    There was always plenty of hitting talent on this roster. early on, everyone was going bad at the same time, it seemed, which is always an anomaly. I'm particularly impressed with Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. Kepler was great in the second half last season, but when he struggled early you had to wonder if the old bad habits were back. but he really turned it around since coming back from the bruised knee and he's absolutely crushing the ball. Jeffers has been fantastic all season and he's a monster threat at all times now. It's hard to keep him out of the lineup. There are some guys that are probably playing over their heads a bit...but there are also a few that are underperforming too, so it evens out. No complaints about it continuing! be nice to take a little pressure off the pitching staff consistently.
  20. jmlease1
    The best part of this list of pitchers is how many are on the list. because sadly, injuries and ineffectiveness are going to cut it down as they move up levels. Pitching development really is a numbers game. But it's hard not to like what's going on with Matthews, and it will be very encouragoing if Raya & Festa start handling heavier loads.
  21. jmlease1
    There are still going to be pitchers who will try him in AA. It's hardly going to hurt him to spend another month there: he's literally got 23 games in AA at age 21. he's still on a fast track if he moves up at midseason.
  22. jmlease1
    Great to see Matthews have an excellent first start in AA. Looking forward to seeing how he does against that level of competition and pitching in a hitter's environment in the Texas League. Pleased to see Balazovic have a good outing. He's been good the last several times out after a rocky start, so maybe he's starting to settle in to the season and is getting his legs under him as a reliever. He's got talent and those Ks are shiny; he just can't get himself in trouble with the walks. He could still be a bullpen option, and I'm glad he made it through waivers.
  23. jmlease1
    almost an ideal win: no need to pull anyone in from the back of the bullpen, plenty of runway for Funderburk and Staumont to get some time in and a load of runs. Kepler & Miranda have been great, and Jeffers is having a heck of a year. Let's go to Boston and win that series too!
  24. jmlease1
    I think Sands is showing something, and maybe we see how Staumont starts to look. Historically Thielbar has been much more than a lefty specialist and it's too soon to write him off; and Stewart isn't going to be out for the year. There isn't going to be a set-up man on the level of Jax available at this point; even if a team has already given up on the year there's really only 3 that are in that boat: White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. ChiSox aren't trading Leasure for anything less than a King's ransom, Rockies don't have anyone that I'd be excited about, and I'm not seeing much of a fit from Miami even they are starting a fire sale. (Burch smith and his 1.5 WHIP? Pass) And frankly, the back of the bullpen is always going to get stretched if you play 3 close ones in a row, especially if the starters are struggling to get through 6.
  25. jmlease1
    funny game, baseball.
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