jmlease1

Complicated question. Parada is a very good looking prospect...but he hasn't played above low A yet. I think it would be difficult to trade Lee (who is as highly regarded and more advanced as a prospect), and much harder to deal Arraez (the reigning batting champion) or Polanco (a former all-star still in his prime) considering dealing either of the latter blows a hole in the lineup that would need to be filled with unproven talent. The Twins are lined up to compete this season with the rotation as it is and having brought back Correa. Kepler is easier to move considering the depth with have in LH corner OF, and the same goes with Larnach. but doubt kepler gets a deal done, and while Larnach has more upside and team-controllable years I doubt he gets it done for a global Top 50 prospect either?

I couldn't be happier with Brooks Lee. Better than advertised at SS so far and with an exceptional hit tool, and clearly not intimidated by the move to pro ball. I think we got lucky with him falling to us, but props to the team that made sure he was the guy we took. I think AA is absolutely the right spot for him to start, since he really only had a cup of coffee there last season, and he should keep playing SS unless he plays himself off of the position. It'll be very interesting to see how he does at the plate this year; teams will be really scouting him now and he'll be seeing more advanced pitchers consistently...but i think he can handle it. I'm guessing that he gets a promotion to AAA before the end of the season. Not betting on him debuting in 2023, though; I'm actually betting on the twins being healthy enough this year at the MLB level that they don't reach down for him, and that Martin and Julien get the first looks for infield help if needed with Royce still on the mend. I think there's a great chance he's on the team in 2024, because i think his bat is special.

Gordon and Jeffers are locks. (If Kirilloff is healthy coming into camp, he's probably the 1B/DH split with Arraez right now) If Farmer is seen as a RH OF option and Gallo and/or Kepler are seen as options to give Buxton a break in the OF, then I think it opens up a spot for Larnach, whom I think is still ahead of Wallner, and Celestino starts in AAA. Not opposed to that?

because he's not our best overall hitter? As has been pointed out previously, batting average treats all hits as if they are equal, and they're not. A home run is worth a lot more than a single, etc. You can't ignore the impact of hitting for power when assessing who the best hitter on the team is. A high batting average is great, desirable, and impactful. But Arraez only slugged .420 last season which limits his offensive profile. Our best overall hitter last season was probably Correa, factoring everything into the mix, including health. Correa's OPS+ was 140, Arraez clocked in at 130.

I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it". Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher. I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go. This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.

It's an interesting idea! Some times a player just needs to get a fresh start with a different organization. the fact that he has an option left certainly helps. The Twins 40-man is pretty tight these days, though. normally there's 3-5 guys on the back end of the 40-man that I really don't care if another team decides they want them, and right now that number is less for me, at least when considering a player that is in many ways a lottery ticket. (I would happily bump Pagan off the roster for him, though.)

we remember the twins "struggling" with men on base, but the reality is the Twins were 8th in the league in OPS+ and league average in Ks, so it really just might have been random chance that dinged the Twins on having their hits line up better with the baserunners. The bad knees talk is legitimate. Arraez was limping to the plate at the end of the year and desperately needed rest for his bad knees but we had so many other injuries that he kept going. Love the heart, but his knees need playing time management to keep him healthy (and he really shouldn't play against LHP if possible). he missed time because of his knees in 2021, had a serious knee injury in the minors (2017) and it's a real issue for him. It doesn't matter if you haven't heard anything from the organization saying his knees are trash (I mean, they're never going to say that about one of their own players) it's been made pretty clear.

I think this is a key point: the loss of a minor league season due to the pandemic really hurt Urbina's development schedule. (He's not the only one who got pinged there. a lot of these young players need game time and competition to measure where they are and to see how their skills are applying in order to determine what they really need to work on to improve, but also to just improve skills generally) I'm glad he slipped through the Rule 5, though I'm not that surprised. It's tough to take a position player who has never played above A-ball and stash him on the MLB roster for a full season unless they are already MLB-quality defenders at CF, SS, or C because they're almost certainly not ready to hit in MLB or they would have been protected in the first place. If Urbina might be slipping down on the defensive scale already then he doesn't fit that profile. A strong hitting year from him could jump him back up on this lists quickly and he's still quite young.

The thing that you always have to keep in mind is that to get talent in a trade, you also have to give it up. You can't throw around names like Sabato & Cavaco and expect to get MLB talent; despite their high draft status, these are players that are near busts. I don't think the Twins want to get rid of Arraez, but he's a player that has a good value (proven MLB hitter, can play multiple positions even if he's only strong at 1, under team control) and his best positions are areas where the Twins look to have some depth, either on the MLB roster or coming up in the system. (Kirilloff, Miranda, and Gallo are all options to play 1B...so is Kepler, frankly. Julien might end up there too. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis are all likely better options defensively at 2B and Polanco is still properly ensconced there.) So it's a bit of a matter of trading from a position of strength. Arraez's greatest strength as a hitter is in his contact skills and he'll work a walk without complaint so he gets on base plenty. but there are questions about whether he's got any more power potential in his bat, and if his slugging is basically maxed out then his ceiling as a hitter will struggle to get much higher. He's also seriously limited against LHP. there's real value in having a player that doesn't whiff, gets hits, and gets on base at a good clip, but when it's mostly singles it also limits you. I love Arraez as a Twin, and would hate to see him go. But if he's part of a deal to substantially improve the rotation? I think that's a reasonable thing to consider. I wouldn't move him for depth, and I doubt I would move him for prospects...and I don't think that's what the front office is interested in either.

McCutchen might have made some sense, but he also might be completely cooked. He's not really very good in the OF any longer and hoping for a bounceback season at age 36 is a fairly high risk. The stat of how he played after June 1 isn't all that compelling; he wasn't bad, but an OPS around .750 isn't exactly impressive. He's mashed lefties over his career and that's where the fit comes in, but I dunno how badly we needed him. More like a nice to have, if the team moves an OF. While I didn't love the Gallo move and I still think it's probably not a great move unless they do something to rebalance the OF a bit, historically Gallo is pretty neutral on his splits and doesn't have to be shielded against lefties the way guys like Kepler do.

I think another year will help, especially since I think Correa is definitely a player who really thinks about positioning and tries to get an advantage there. It will be interesting to see how he works with Miranda this season, since I expect Miranda to be there fairly consistently. (Miranda is not a great defender, but i do think he can improve at 3B, especially if he plays there consistently, without having to try and learn 1B, and I'm fairly certain that Correa will be working with him and pushing him) Less movement with the changes on shifting might be a benefit to Correa? regardless, I'm very comfortable with him captaining the infield defense. Polanco can be very good defensively at 2B, Arraez was surprisingly excellent at 1B (even if he's kinda short) and Kirilloff has the tools to be excellent there too. Farmer will be a quality defensive replacement at SS, 2B, or 3B which we didn't necessarily have last season. Right now Miranda is the weakest link.

I think it's pretty unlikely that he'd come back here on a minor league deal. Pride will almost certainly get in the way, even if it might be a good idea. (I suspect someone will still offer him an MLB deal at least at league minimum) I think we just need to move on from Sano. Even if we brought him back, he'd be looked at to be a part-time player, and Sano isn't actually a guy who has real splits. he thumps righties and lefties about the same over his career, and in signing him you'd be hoping he gets back to career norms. He's got a rough injury history at this point, plays 1B poorly and we don't need/want a full-time DH. The MLB roster is pretty tight, the 40-man is pretty tight, and pride will prevent him from signing a minor league deal. Time to move on. And while sano never hit the heights that were predicted for him, he had multiple years as a productive MLB player for the twins, gave us many highlight reel moonshot HRs (my goodness, he hit some bombs...and some lasers! the moonshots were always the more impressive, probably because you had more time to admire them, but it was also pretty fun when he hit a laser shot that never got more than 20 ft off the ground into the seat too...), and in the end provided more value to the team than we spent on him. He wasn't a bad player, just an inconsistent, incomplete, and injured one.

I think this is fair. After seeing things coming out of NY on Sanchez, I was expecting him to be really dreadful behind the plate. So while he wasn't great back there, I think he would have been acceptable if his hitting had come back around and ticked up a bit from 2021. instead he fell off further at the plate, and if he's not slugging then he's just not that good of a player. Vazquez has pretty good odds of turning in roughly the same offensive performance (not great, but fine for a catcher) with significantly better defense. Was hoping for a better bounce from sanchez, and really thought getting him out of NY was going to help. he certainly seemed happier? he also seems like a good dude, so hopefully he lands somewhere where they can work with his swing and get him back on track a bit.

I think part of the question is what are you comparing the Twins to when you ask if they've improved this winter. If it's against opening day from last year it's an interesting question: do you include the deadline deals or not? Re-signing Correa doesn't improve the team from last opening day, of course, but having Mahle & Lopez certainly do...but weren't brought in over the winter. If you're comparing it to where the Twins were at the end of the season, then you don't get any better by re-signing Correa...but having healthy players again certainly improves the team a heck of a lot. Vazquez looks like an upgrade over Sanchez; Gary really struggled at the plate (in comparison to where he was hoped to be) and while I don't expect much more from Vazquez the defense will almost certainly be quite a bit better. Farmer over Urshela? Kinda feels like a push, but gives the infield better balance, as Farmer is much more capable at SS than Urshela. Gio's a better hitter, but is sliding down the defensive scale. Gallo...who knows with Gallo. potentially better than Kepler? Probably better than Larnach or Kirilloff's production last year at the plate, but might not be better at the plate than either. Will be better defensively. Getting Maeda back could be significant, but wasn't exactly a winter move...he just got healthy like a lot of guys and is available again. This was a playoff team last season before the injuries wrecked the squad. We were playing our 10th choice in the OF towards the end of the season and except for Wallner weren't even playing prospects out there. This team looks better than last year's opening day squad (fewer questions in the bullpen, deeper rotation, similar lineup) and is definitely better than the squad we had at the end of the year where they fell apart after leading the division for much of the year.

It was about the money and it was about the years. Correa didn't want to do the free agent dance again (most players do not enjoy the process, which is understandable), so the length of the deal mattered. The money certainly mattered, and we weren't talking about $5-10M (which is still significant) but $65M with the Giants deal and then $30M for the original Mets deal. Yes, he wants to play in a competitive situation (which in fact he has with the Twins; healthy, this is a playoff team and was last season as well) but he was trying to make this his last contract as well, which meant getting long years and maximizing the dollars. Correa was perfectly happy to come back here, but wasn't going to take a discount. It's fairly clear that he had preferences on which teams he wanted to go to, and the Twins were on that list. You can't make this a binary where if didn't immediately go with the Twins it means he doesn't want to be here, it's just not that simple. Being happy to go somewhere else (for much bigger money and more years) doesn't mean he wasn't happy to come back here, he can have multiple places he'd be happy to land.

If there's no movement, I think the 5 end up being Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Gordon, and Kirilloff...which is a bit out of balance. But Gordon can back up CF and play other positions, played well last year and showed what he could do as a hitter, and is out of options. Kirilloff gives support at 1B and if a superior hitter if healthy. Gallo & Kepler are guarantees if on the roster. Larnach & Wallner have options, and Wallner still has things to prove (he's a poor defender and his contact rates are still worrisome). Larnach has less to prove to me, but he does need to show he's healthy. Celestino needs to show he can hit enough to be a 4th OF, and needs a little more maturity. The MLB roster needs another RH bat who can play in the corners, which is why a Kepler move makes so much sense. But they can proceed as is without losing anyone.

UGH. I hate keeping him. I get not wanting to let him go for nothing, but they had offers for him and IMHO they should have taken one of them. Whatever he might be able to add, he subtracts too much in fan PTSD. And frankly unless the Twins somehow unlock something they weren't able to do last season...he's just not that good. He's the definition of a fungible reliever, a guy whose raw stuff doesn't generate enough results. Feels a little like the front office is trying to prove something here, and that rarely works out well for any front office ever.

Sisk's control is fairly dreadful still and last season was the first year he was able to limit baserunners to a reasonable level. He also started last season in AA, so considering where he was at with his pitching I can understand why the Twins weren't prepared to have him jump multiple levels last season to make his MLB debut. The talent is there if he can find the strike zone a little more consistently. The spring training invite makes sense.

He looks more cooked than McCutchen, unfortunately. Was pretty bad last season, struggled in the half season after leaving MN for TB the year before, can only play DH...$1M isn't much risk, but the Twins don't really have the roster spots and the upside seems low. McCutchen would have been a reasonable fit, but also might not have that much left in the tank. I do think he's got more than Cruz and can still play the field.

I think this is a smart move. Even with the injuries, this is still likely a bit below market rate on arbitration, and assuming Paddack comes back reasonably well off the TJ it's well below market for the free agency year. A good compromise for the injury rehab that cost him most of last season and likely most if not all of this year. Paddack has talent and it's worth the gamble, especially at this money. He could be a very good fit next season as a rotation piece, and might be an option late this season, depending on how his rehab goes and what the Twins need for the rotation based on other pitcher's success or health. Good move for both parties: Paddack gets insurance/guarantees after a significant injury, the Twins get a discount for paying his rehab. They were always going to pay the arbitration number this year anyways.

I can't help it, I love pitchers with a filthy changeup. And boy does Moran have one! A little wildness is survivable for relievers when they can hunt Ks like Moran can. But he can't totally have it fall apart.

SS has not been a position of real strength for this franchise. After Versalles, Gagne, and Smalley it falls off pretty quickly. We've churned a lot of players through looking for a long-term solution, and made some bad choices over the years (i.e., dumping JJ Hardy after one season). Correa's performance last season was already one of the better single season efforts and if he lives up to his contract (mostly) over the next 6 seasons, he'll be the best SS in franchise history. Smalley is a bit underrated still as a player; during his first stint as a Twin he provided quality defense with better hitting than was really appreciated at the time from the position. But at the end of the day he only spent 6 years with the Twins as a SS, with 2 all-star quality seasons. Correa already has 1. Gagne had 8 seasons at SS for the Twins, 5 of them were quality, but never had the peaks because of his inability to take walks and get on base. A fine defender, but not a good hitter. The odds are good that Correa will go down as the best SS in Twins history if he's able to stick at the position for at least 4 more seasons.

Stashing a quality reserve in AAA because teams won't want to pay the extra $300K on his salary? While I think the Twins are imbalanced in their OF right now and management needs to make some moves to adjust it, I do think the front office has an interesting and creative strategy for stashing those borderline MLB players who can make good backup options/injury insurance at AAA by paying them higher salaries. Minor leagues can be tough for players...but it's not so rough for a player when they're making $750K, get to play in the same metro area as the MLB club so when they're called up they don't have to move, and get to keep playing baseball for a living. In context that extra money isn't that impactful on the overall payroll for the team, but it can keep a player available after their options would have been exhausted. Clever way of being able to functionally get an extra option year with a little guaranteed money to fence off other teams.

There's been multiple posts in here about the front office "getting lucky", not giving them credit for having Correa land in their laps etc. It seems to boil down to if you already didn't like the front office, don't like the style of baseball, and/or refer to management running things via spreadsheet, then they get no credit or approbation for signing Correa. The offseason wasn't saved. It's all still terrible. That's pretty muddled thinking to me.

Eddie Rosario has never scored 100 runs in a season. Now, that's not really a knock on eddie; it's very difficult to do. in 2022 only 10 players in all of baseball hit that number. (BTW, Carlos Correa accomplished it in 2021). The last Twin to do so was Jorge Polanco in 2019. yes, you need situational hitting to help it along, but you also need players that are healthy all year. The idea that Rocco doesn't know what his players are capable and doesn't put them in winning situations of is fairly silly, especially in the context of a desire to play more "small ball". The roster of players we have are not suited for it. Luis Arraez has excellent contact skills, but his terrible knees make him a poor baserunner that shouldn't be trying to steal bases. Polanco, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Sanchez, Sano...these are not base-stealers. By not asking them to do things that they're not good at, Rocco is trying to maximize their success.