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GKuehl

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Everything posted by GKuehl

  1. GKuehl
    I've been wondering if we'll see Farmer hit leadoff like Garlick did at times last year against lefty SPs. As soon as they pull the lefty starter, we could insert Polanco, Gordon, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, etc. (whoever was on the bench that day so Farmer could start) to get them an AB against an opposite-handed pitcher (included Polanco in here even though he's a switch-hitter because his numbers are better against RHP than LHP).
  2. GKuehl
    I would love a Moore or Chafin signing -- they raise the floor of the bullpen and relegate Pagan to mop-up duty (WHICH IS A GREAT THING). A top 5 of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moore/Chafin would be glorious, especially with the upside of Alcala and Moran as our 6th and 7th best relievers.
  3. GKuehl
    The back end of our system feels deeper than it has for a handful of years. It feels like there's quite a bit of potential in this group, which is great to see from 21-30.
  4. GKuehl
    If Julien continues hitting, either in Spring Training or in the early on at St. Paul, he'll quickly find himself at Target Field. One of the driving forces behind moving Arraez outside of Pablo Lopez must have been the front office's confidence in the ability of the guys in the high minors to match Arraez's OPS+ production. Any of Julien, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Michael Helman are on the cusp of the major leagues. With Arraez clogging up 1B and DH, there would not have been a role for these players to receive a real shot in the Majors, barring a handful of injuries. Now, we can plug in Kiriloff as our everyday 1B against RHP with Miranda taking over 1B for Kiriloff against LHP and Farmer taking over 3B. Additionally, if any of the aforementioned guys tear the cover off the ball in Spring Training, they now have a shot to make the team out of the gate, receiving 2-3 starts each week rotating in at 3B, 2B, 1B, and DH. This front office seems to love positional flexibility, and sadly, Arraez no longer offers much outside of 1B.
  5. GKuehl
    Based on the title, I really thought this piece was going to be about giving Royce Lewis plenty of time to recover to avoid rushing him back.
  6. GKuehl
    I would add Buxton to this list because the only reason we were able to sign him to a deal for less than $300 million was his injury history. However, I don't think this is necessarily a troubling trend (if you want to call it a trend). Minnesota isn't a glamorous place that free agents flock to, and we're a mid-market team that can't usually swim in the deep end with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. We have to take calculated risks on players we otherwise might not be able to acquire at such rates. For every Mahle who came back to bite us, there's a Kenta Maeda who has been quite successful compared to his cost (both in terms of $ and Graterol going back to the Dodgers in that trade).
  7. GKuehl
    If Farmer is capable of filling the RH OFer role, it opens up the possibility of keeping someone who tears the cover off the ball in spring training. Someone like Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, or Edouard Julien who otherwise would be unlikely to make the team out of the gate.
  8. GKuehl
    I love Arraez. He’s one of my favorite players on the team. However, something that doesn’t get talked about enough about his performance is that he’s not an everyday player because of his platoon splits. Against RHP he has a career OPS of .818 but against LHP he has a .670 OPS. With Kiriloff also batting LH, we’re lacking a natural platoon partner to start against lefties. I’m guessing Kyle Farmer and Arraez might actually turn into a platoon even if they don’t simply swap positions.
  9. GKuehl
    Nick, I’ve really enjoyed your lists and agreed with most of your rankings so far, but your belief in Ober seems too optimistic. I would rather have Arraez, Miranda, Duran, and Rodriguez over Ober in a heartbeat. If any of those 4 players played for another team and we were offered one of them for Ober in a trade, I would instantaneously accept.
  10. GKuehl
    Pretty solid plan. My question about Eovaldi is whether he’s worth losing the Competitive Balance pick for, since he received a Qualifying Offer. With the depth that we have in the rotation at the moment, I would prefer we sign Wade Miley or Michael Wacha, keep the Competitive Balance pick, save $10 million/year and spend it on further bullpen additions or a righty 1B or OF like Trey Mancini or AJ Pollock.
  11. GKuehl
    How about Blake Snell? He has 1 year left on his current deal for $16.6 million, and I could see the Padres wanting to get his money off the books.
  12. GKuehl
    I admire the Padres' philosophy. While the Padres might be lessening their year-to-year profits, I'm curious if the success of the franchise will increase its overall value in the long-term. If the Padres are able to win a World Series or two in the next 5 years, the franchise's value would likely increase and make up for any annual reductions in profit.
  13. GKuehl
    Were you watching the same Twins games I watched last year? Larnach had 9 defensive runs saved above average in just 331 innings, and within a few weeks he had a handful of assists, so teams all-but gave up running on him.
  14. GKuehl
    One thing I wish you had mentioned is the conundrum we face with so many of our corner OF options hitting left-handed, with Kepler, Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Contreras (if you really want to include a AAAA player on this list) all hitting lefty. That's the main reason I'm hopeful we're able to trade Kepler for a mid-level prospect to reallocate his $8.5 million salary to a RH-hitting corner OF with some pop -- someone like Mitch Haniger. With the current roster construction, we'll be forced to play a LH-hitting OF every game against a lefty starting pitcher unless we want to play Garlick and Celestino, which seems like a recipe for disaster, as Celestino looks like he needs some more seasoning at AAA.
  15. GKuehl
    It feels like he could managed similarly to Chris Archer this past year -- limit him to 75-80 pitches for the first month of the season, see how his body responds, and move forward from there. For this plan to work the Twins need to have an effective long reliever who can enter a game in the 5th inning and bridge the gap to the back of the bullpen in the 8th inning twice a week.
  16. GKuehl
    I’m happy with this move if it helps lead to a Correa reunion. However, if we traded Urshela to simply sign Elvis Andrus, this move is a definite hindrance to our competitive outlook next year, and one that wasn’t worth making. The prospect looks intriguing, a potential reliever option in 3-5 years.
  17. GKuehl
    I’ve been wondering if service time manipulation is going to come into play, especially because he started the year in the majors. I’m guessing Winder gets sent down once Ober returns both to conserve some innings on on his innings limit and to gain an extra year of service time.
  18. GKuehl
    Who is Michael Helman? Why have I never heard his name before — his numbers look really solid!
  19. GKuehl
    I love your idea of using him as an opener. Since Canterino’s only throwing 3-4 innings per start at AA, why not have him start the game so he remains in a role he’s comfortable in, and let him pitch until he hits his 60 pitch limit before bringing in Archer who can’t go more than 4 innings anyway. We have to do something to limit the wear and tear on our bullpen, and this strategy would go a long way to giving the bullpen nearly a full day off every 5-6 days.
  20. GKuehl
    While I understand the allure of wanting to trade for a SP with multiple years of team control, those pitchers are FAR more expensive than rentals. And with the way our pitching pipeline is starting to bear fruit, we aren't in a position right now where we need to divest significant prospect capital to get someone like Frankie or Castillo. For the rest of this year, our starting staff includes Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Winder as the 4 guys we can "trust" with some inefficient Archer starts mixed in, Smeltzer spot starts, and hopefully as little of Bundy and his 88 MPH fastball as possible. Adding a 1-year rental like Price (who would almost certainly be affordable in terms of prospect capital) could really help bolster that group. We also have SWR, Canterino, Balazovic, Sands, and Varland knocking on the door ready to contribute. While they might not all be ready for 100 innings this year, I don't see any harm in calling up SWR or Balazovic in the next few months to see if they're capable of getting big league hitters out. Worst case scenario, they get lit up and we send them back down for some more "seasoning." Also, it sounds like Maeda might be able to contribute in September, which would be huge in helping us watch the innings of some of these young arms. While Paddack is likely out for a large chunk of 2023 (if he needs Tommy John), our starting staff looks pretty full. Next year, our rotation already looks pretty full (Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Ober, Winder, SWR, and Balazovic for sure, with Canterino, Sands, and Henriquez working out of the bullpen). While no team can ever have too much starting pitching, it wouldn't be worth it to part with 2 of our top 10 prospects for 1.5 years of Frankie when our rotation already goes 7 deep notwithstanding any free agent additions or a Paddack return for 2023.
  21. GKuehl
    I’d rather have Jorge at SS and Arraez or Miranda at 2B than Gordon at SS.
  22. GKuehl
    His package is essentially a faster, slightly more versatile but less useful at SS Ehire Adrianza, which can certainly be a useful piece on a winning club. However, if he doesn’t clear a .600 OPS this year, it’s hard to justify him locking down the utility role moving into next year. Another comment mentioned Miranda, Arraez, Steer, Martin, and Julien who are all essentially utility players capably of playing the same positions as Gordon (minus SS). And with Jorge capable of sliding back to SS when needed, it might get tough to justify keeping Gordon on the roster as one of 12 or 13 hitters, particularly since we don’t seem very comfortable playing Gordon at SS. He’s not an every day guy, but even if Correa leaves at the end of the year, Lewis is certain to step in at SS next year and keep Gordon in the exact same role, just with Steer, Martin, and Julien nipping at his heels with another year of development and at bats under their belts. I like Gordon, and while we have a handful of cheap, controllable years, he might not merit the roster spot in years to come.
  23. GKuehl
    How long should his leash be? 0 inches, because he should be kept in a kennel (aka the bullpen or the waiver wire). I’m confused by people wondering who’ll step into the 5th starter role because Paddack has been OUTSTANDING with a 3.15 ERA that looks entirely sustainable. He looks like a legitimate #3 on a playoff team, far better than Bailey Ober who everyone seems to have locked into a mid-rotation spot when he returns. We should run with a 6-man rotation of Ryan, Gray, Paddack, Winder, Ober, and Archer for as long as we can until someone is injured. Either throw Bundy in the bullpen to see if he’s capable of coming in after Archer’s obligatorily short starts or keep someone like Cole Sands in the bullpen to piggyback off of Archer. I also can’t wait to see some of the other young studs like SWR, Canterino, Varland, etc.
  24. GKuehl
    We’ve gotta think about Bundy moving to the ‘pen once Ober/Gray are back. I’m not trying to be all doom and gloom, but his stuff isn’t all that good (sub-90 mph fastball), and he’s been leaving a ton of pitches over the plate that he’d just been lucky to avoid more hard hit balls. Last year he had a 3.32 ERA through 3 starts before it had ballooned to 6.06 by the end of the year. No harm in moving him to the bullpen and allowing Winder to continue working as a starter. Bundy can come in and get some mop up work and slide back into the rotation if two of our other starters get injured.
  25. GKuehl
    I know he only has 1 start (plus coming in for Sonny when he got hurt and pitching 5.1 innings), but we’ve gotta give Winder some love too! He’s been nothing short of stellar, particularly when you consider he’s a starter who’s had to change his routine by coming out of the bullpen for all but one of his appearances.
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