Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

GKuehl

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    152

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by GKuehl

  1. GKuehl
    I keep hoping that the Twins will roll with Ober as the #5 starter over Maeda. While I understand the argument behind starting Maeda and keeping Ober warm in AAA until one of our starters inevitably gets hurt, it feels difficult to justify Maeda holding a rotation spot over Ober after watching Spring Training, especially considering their respective performances and the fact that Ober is now touching 94 MPH with the fastball. Even prior to undergoing TJ Surgery, it seemed like Maeda was in decline. His fastball velocity is hovering around the danger zone of 90 MPH, and while he's still capable of getting guys out because of the quality of his off-speed pitches, his control has been lacking so far this Spring. I'm confident that if Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton were asked "Who gives you the better chance to win a game on May 14th, Bailey Ober or Kenta Maeda?" (and they could respond honestly) they would answer Bailey Ober. Starting the year with Maeda in the bullpen serving either as a piggyback to Ober or another starter who isn't fully built-up or as a long-man who pitches twice a week seems like the best option if we're trying to win as many games as possible (the games in May count the same as the games in September). When a starter inevitably goes down with an injury, someone like Varland or SWR could come up for a spot start while Maeda builds back up for an extra week to fill the injured SP spot.
  2. GKuehl
    I’ve been thinking Coulombe is going to make the Opening Day roster. Whenever he’s been healthy, he’s put up good results. Having another LHP in the bullpen could be useful, especially considering Moran has reverse splits and might be used in a 2-inning per outing role and Thielbar is likely to be used in the late innings as one of our better relievers.
  3. GKuehl
    Willi Castro is far likelier to make the team than White. Castro has been having a stellar spring, he's young, and he could play all over the diamond with Miranda/Gallo/Farmer/Solano rotating in at 1B. To even have a shot at the opening day roster, it's likely that someone else other than AK would need to not be ready for the start of the season (someone like Gordon or Miranda).
  4. GKuehl
    I would ABSOLUTELY sign Duran to a long-term extension to buy out his arbitration years and his first 2-3 free agent years. We can say it’s a small sample size, but this isn’t some fluke — he throws 103 MPH with nasty breaking stuff. If anything, Duran should be even better this year than last year. He might be the best reliever in baseball. Injuries will always be a risk, but it’s not as if pitchers don’t consistently come back from TJ surgery in today’s MLB. Even if Duran needed TJ at some point, I’m guessing he would still come back as an elite reliever worth $12 million/year in 6 years, especially since team spending will only continue to increase.
  5. GKuehl
    No matter how the ball is flying, this year's Twins feel fairly well-prepared to handle it. If the ball is flying like 2019, Buxton, Gallo, and Correa are likely to hit 30+ homers and Miranda, Kepler, Polanco, and Kirilloff are likely to hit 20+ homers. If the ball is dead like it has been the last few years, our elite OF of Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor will eat up fly balls.
  6. GKuehl
    I still strongly believe in Trevor Larnach as a potential #5 hitter for years to come. When he hasn't been trying to play hurt, he has looked like a hitter with substantial power to all fields who makes enough contact that he isn't the next Brent Rooker. Larnach's fielding is an underrated aspect of his game -- he's no Max Kepler in the outfield but he's a heck of a lot better than Delmon Young or Josh Willingham have been.
  7. GKuehl
    When I heard the Lux news, I wondered whether Farmer might be an option for the Dodgers, especially considering the Dodgers love versatile guys and Farmer would fill in nicely there. After the addition of Solano, Farmer seems a bit redundant considering Solano can play everywhere that Farmer can except for SS. However, that last part is probably key -- trading Farmer would leave the Twins without a true backup SS. It seems pretty clear the Twins don't want to use Gordon at SS, Polanco is nothing more than a "break glass in case of emergency" SS at this point, and Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee might not be ready for the Majors until mid-summer. A trade of Farmer seems possible if the Twins felt comfortable at all heading into the year with some combination of Gordon, Lee, Polanco, Solano as backup SS options; however, it seems unlikely we would want to diminish our overall depth considering the primary goal of offseason seems to have been to accumulate as much depth as possible.
  8. GKuehl
    I’m all for it. With Henriquez and Winder not 100% and Megill looking atrocious, maybe Hoffman can be the long guy we’re looking for or Santana can figure something out, especially considering he’s been really good in stretches and then looks like April/May-Pagan the rest of the time.
  9. GKuehl
    Though both are busts, the Cavaco and Sabato picks are polar opposites. We criticize the FO for drafting Cavaco as a toolsy prep infielder with massive upside if he ever put it all together, and we also criticize the FO for drafting Sabato as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who was likely to make it to the majors as a DH. Are we just blinded by hindsight? Maybe -- if Sabato was hitting like we all expected he would after we drafted him, the pick would make a lot of sense, especially considering how much this year's version of the team could use a righty power bat.
  10. GKuehl
    Really interesting work, thanks! 100% agree — fielders will have to field his grounders on the move (if at all), forcing them to make more difficult, rushed plays to throw Buck out at 1st.
  11. GKuehl
    Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year.
  12. GKuehl
    Barring any injuries in Spring Training, the Opening Day roster is pretty locked-in. The only changes could come from a Bullpen move, whether that's signing someone like Matt Moore or keeping someone like Henriquez or Ober over Megill. The only possible position-player spot up for grabs is Trevor Larnach's, who could land in AAA to start the year if Julien or Martin look fantastic in Spring Training.
  13. GKuehl
    I've been wondering if we'll see Farmer hit leadoff like Garlick did at times last year against lefty SPs. As soon as they pull the lefty starter, we could insert Polanco, Gordon, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, etc. (whoever was on the bench that day so Farmer could start) to get them an AB against an opposite-handed pitcher (included Polanco in here even though he's a switch-hitter because his numbers are better against RHP than LHP).
  14. GKuehl
    I would love a Moore or Chafin signing -- they raise the floor of the bullpen and relegate Pagan to mop-up duty (WHICH IS A GREAT THING). A top 5 of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moore/Chafin would be glorious, especially with the upside of Alcala and Moran as our 6th and 7th best relievers.
  15. GKuehl
    The back end of our system feels deeper than it has for a handful of years. It feels like there's quite a bit of potential in this group, which is great to see from 21-30.
  16. GKuehl
    If Julien continues hitting, either in Spring Training or in the early on at St. Paul, he'll quickly find himself at Target Field. One of the driving forces behind moving Arraez outside of Pablo Lopez must have been the front office's confidence in the ability of the guys in the high minors to match Arraez's OPS+ production. Any of Julien, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Michael Helman are on the cusp of the major leagues. With Arraez clogging up 1B and DH, there would not have been a role for these players to receive a real shot in the Majors, barring a handful of injuries. Now, we can plug in Kiriloff as our everyday 1B against RHP with Miranda taking over 1B for Kiriloff against LHP and Farmer taking over 3B. Additionally, if any of the aforementioned guys tear the cover off the ball in Spring Training, they now have a shot to make the team out of the gate, receiving 2-3 starts each week rotating in at 3B, 2B, 1B, and DH. This front office seems to love positional flexibility, and sadly, Arraez no longer offers much outside of 1B.
  17. GKuehl
    Based on the title, I really thought this piece was going to be about giving Royce Lewis plenty of time to recover to avoid rushing him back.
  18. GKuehl
    I would add Buxton to this list because the only reason we were able to sign him to a deal for less than $300 million was his injury history. However, I don't think this is necessarily a troubling trend (if you want to call it a trend). Minnesota isn't a glamorous place that free agents flock to, and we're a mid-market team that can't usually swim in the deep end with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. We have to take calculated risks on players we otherwise might not be able to acquire at such rates. For every Mahle who came back to bite us, there's a Kenta Maeda who has been quite successful compared to his cost (both in terms of $ and Graterol going back to the Dodgers in that trade).
  19. GKuehl
    If Farmer is capable of filling the RH OFer role, it opens up the possibility of keeping someone who tears the cover off the ball in spring training. Someone like Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, or Edouard Julien who otherwise would be unlikely to make the team out of the gate.
  20. GKuehl
    I love Arraez. He’s one of my favorite players on the team. However, something that doesn’t get talked about enough about his performance is that he’s not an everyday player because of his platoon splits. Against RHP he has a career OPS of .818 but against LHP he has a .670 OPS. With Kiriloff also batting LH, we’re lacking a natural platoon partner to start against lefties. I’m guessing Kyle Farmer and Arraez might actually turn into a platoon even if they don’t simply swap positions.
  21. GKuehl
    Nick, I’ve really enjoyed your lists and agreed with most of your rankings so far, but your belief in Ober seems too optimistic. I would rather have Arraez, Miranda, Duran, and Rodriguez over Ober in a heartbeat. If any of those 4 players played for another team and we were offered one of them for Ober in a trade, I would instantaneously accept.
  22. GKuehl
    Pretty solid plan. My question about Eovaldi is whether he’s worth losing the Competitive Balance pick for, since he received a Qualifying Offer. With the depth that we have in the rotation at the moment, I would prefer we sign Wade Miley or Michael Wacha, keep the Competitive Balance pick, save $10 million/year and spend it on further bullpen additions or a righty 1B or OF like Trey Mancini or AJ Pollock.
  23. GKuehl
    How about Blake Snell? He has 1 year left on his current deal for $16.6 million, and I could see the Padres wanting to get his money off the books.
  24. GKuehl
    I admire the Padres' philosophy. While the Padres might be lessening their year-to-year profits, I'm curious if the success of the franchise will increase its overall value in the long-term. If the Padres are able to win a World Series or two in the next 5 years, the franchise's value would likely increase and make up for any annual reductions in profit.
  25. GKuehl
    Were you watching the same Twins games I watched last year? Larnach had 9 defensive runs saved above average in just 331 innings, and within a few weeks he had a handful of assists, so teams all-but gave up running on him.
×
×
  • Create New...