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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I don't like Polanco in any type of utility role. He is adequate only at one position (2B) and was flat-out terrible at third base. I do like Austin Martin as a utility player/alternate center fielder. I don't know if he can be a competent center fielder, but he has skills that most of the Twins position players lack. He is a righty bat and the Twins are short of productive outfielders who hit right handed. He could also get at-bats as a RH hitting second baseman. Whether he starts the season with the Twins has a lot to do with Farmer and Solano returning. Both Lee and Severino are long shots to go north for Opening Day. Lee needs a bit more time in St. Paul. He won't be on the 40-man roster, so he has to force his way, but I think he will eventually. Severino could have a path as a backup at the corners, but I think the Twins would prioritize Jose Miranda before turning to Severino, who also probably needs more time in AAA.
  2. stringer bell
    Woods Richardson pitched much better the last third or so of the season IIRC. Also, run scoring was insanely high in AAA this year, so his numbers aren't as poor as they look. It is important to point out that he turned 23 after the Triple A season was over and is the second-youngest player to appear for the Twins. Yes, he may have to redo some of his delivery to get more juice in the fastball and more movement on his pitches, but I think there's something pretty good there. Prielipp needs a healthy season to restore his status. Salas needs to adjust to higher level pitching. I'm not ready to give up on any of the "fall off three", but 2024 becomes a very significant year for all three.
  3. stringer bell
    Speed isn't the be-all and end-all. Acuna led the majors in steals and his sprint speed is good, but not elite. Julien has been measured at slightly above average in sprint speed, but apparently displayed the knack to steal bases in the minors. For the Twins, I believe he was limited most of the season by leg miseries that pretty much ruled him out from trying to steal. I was a bit disappointed in Julien's base running beyond the lack of stolen bases. He seldom took the extra base and was picked off or made outs on the bases an inordinate number of times (IMHO).
  4. stringer bell
    Discussing the relative merits of several players since the Twins were eliminated from postseason, I took a look at their 40-man roster and the ages of the players. There is a significant number of Twins on the 40-man roster born in 1997. Ten, all told, among them current hot topics of Alex Kirilloff and Louie Varland. 10 of 34 on the roster were born in the same year. It would seem these 25 and 26-year-olds will have a lot to say about the Twins' immediate future. Looking at the group, there are five pitchers (Canterino, Headrick, Moran, Sands and Varland) and five position players (Castro, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner). The most experienced player is Castro, with over four years of big-league experience. The least experienced is Canterino, who has yet to throw his first major league pitch. All but Castro are homegrown--drafted and developed by the Twins. I don't know if there is analysis when players make their biggest improvement. I've often heard that 27-30 are the peak years for MLB players. This large group of players should be due to step up as soon as 2024. The other thing that occurred to me is some guys are still prospects or not established, while others seem to have been around for quite a while (Kirilloff, Moran and Larnach) and are approaching "make or break" time. Some of that might have to do with how long the respective players have been in the organization. Kirilloff, for example, was signed out of high school and was in the minors at 18. Most of the other guys were signed out of college.
  5. stringer bell
    Thanks for the learned analysis. I'm glad to hear that he should be back in time for the 2024 season.
  6. stringer bell
    I think Varland got himself a ticket to the Opening Day roster with his relief appearances at the end of the season. If he doesn't make the rotation, he will start the season in the bullpen. When a vacancy arises, the Twins might turn to him, but stretch him out gradually from his multi-inning reliever role to full-fledged starter.
  7. stringer bell
    Does this mean that Kirilloff is projected to be ready to go by Opening Day? I’d love to see him have a full healthy season and see what he produces.
  8. stringer bell
    As with Kyle Farmer, it isn't what he did in 2023, it will be what is projected in 2024. At 36, I wouldn't be too interested in Solano. He's slow, he's short and he isn't a good defender. If the Twins want to get younger and more athletic, replacing Donnie Barrels with a younger player is a way to start. I believe the job will eventually belong to Jose Miranda.
  9. stringer bell
    I still have hope that AK becomes an All-Star, but each injury gives me more reason to doubt that he'll ever reach his potential. I wonder if the shoulder is the reason he had most of his power to the opposite field while he didn't sting the ball as often to the pull side.
  10. stringer bell
    Common that teams don't announce DFAs when trying to outright the player. I thought Ortega had a chance to be a good bullpen arm both in '23 and '24. We shall see what the Astros get out of him.
  11. stringer bell
    What Twins outfielder hits left handed pitching? Hicks is essentially the same age as MAT, by the way. Hicks had a .970 OPS vs. LH pitching last year and has a career .758 OPS vs. lefties. Byron Buxton’s OPS against left handers last year was .627.
  12. stringer bell
    Sounds like good news for Kirilloff. Less invasive procedures would indicate the injury wasn't as serious and that recovery won't take as long (I guess). If any medical professionals want to weigh in, it would be appreciated. Here is the item from mlbtraderumors.com The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.
  13. stringer bell
    I am counting 42 players. Subtracting soon-to-be free agents Gray, Keuchel, Maeda, Mahle, Pagán, Solano, Gallo and Taylor, the total is now 34. Is that right?
  14. stringer bell
    Subtract another one. Ortega was claimed by the Astros.
  15. stringer bell
    Adding faster, more athletic players will add more stolen bases. Unfortunately, that also means subtracting slower, less athletic guys like Solano and Farmer. I’d also add that Julien seem limited by leg issues most of his season with the Twins. His history is that of a pretty good base stealers i would expect more from him next year.
  16. stringer bell
    Hicks' revival began as soon as he left the Bronx. His OPS for the Orioles was .806 (127 OPS+). He's still a capable outfielder who could play center on occasion and has always had much better platoon splits against left handed pitching. There's enough there to seriously consider acquiring him.
  17. stringer bell
    I don’t think they can bring back everyone on the position player side. Allowing for Kirilloff and Buxton to start on the IL, but bringing back Solano, Farmer and MAT, plus picking up the options for Kepler and Polanco, the Twins have about 15 players for 13 spots and that is allowing for Miranda, Larnach and Martin in the minors. Farmer’s role will be diminished with other guys capable of playing short, and Solano will turn 36 this winter. Gordon is out of options and not really trusted in the infield. I move on from all three of them. A starter better than Varland needs to be added and center field depth has to be provided for, probably with a right handed hitter. It seems clear to me that the Twins will have to sacrifice position player depth to augment their losses. Adding a bullpen arm would be a good move, as well.
  18. stringer bell
    Well, I don't see Stevenson and Gordon as comparable. Stevenson has enough speed to be a threat on the bases and is a plus defender in left and center. Gordon might be a good hitter against right handed pitching and is okay in left and center and can play in the infield. What people seem to think is that Gordon is really fast. His sprint speed is on a par with Alex Kirilloff.
  19. stringer bell
    Luplow is a definite non-tender/release. They DFAed him before an injury put him back on the roster. Alcalá is an interesting case. He's got a lot of service time with not much time on the active roster. When he's healthy, he has promise, but he hasn't been healthy for most of the last two years and there is no guarantee that he will be in the future. The real cost for Alcalá is the 40-man spot. I guess I'd tender him and when the Twins parted company with Celestino to activate him, it shows the Twins do think he is worth quite a bit. I've never been a huge Gordon fan, although I do see him as a "team guy" who was a constant in the dugout cheering on his teammates. If the Twins can trade him for something, they should do it. He is a good enough player to be in the majors, but he doesn't fit with the Twins.
  20. stringer bell
    I appreciate what Farmer did last year and I think he was a valuable member of the 2023 Twins. That said, the team can't live in the past. Farmer is 33, this year the Twins figure to have others to back up Carlos Correa and he will make a lot of money for a utility player.
  21. stringer bell
    Regarding errors, there were probably at least 6-10 plays where Correa could have/should have made a play and wasn't charged with an error. Even adding in those plays as errors, he still was very competent in turning outs into outs.
  22. stringer bell
    I can't see where the Twins can trade Vázquez and get anything more than salary relief and maybe not even that. I would expect that he'll rebound in 2024 to some degree. I have little confidence that Camargo would be a decent backup catcher, but we probably will find out in 2024. It is extremely doubtful that both Jeffers and Vázquez get through two consecutive seasons without injury. Depth is needed at catcher and it is not a position where the Twins have depth.
  23. stringer bell
    Certainly Farmer could be on the roster with Jeffers and Lewis, but if his usage is limited to finding some at-bats in the infield against left handed pitching, he won’t be worth the +$6M price tag. The Twins figure to have better, cheaper options to be bench and short side platoon players. Brooks Lee isn’t “some random unknown player”. He’s the Twins #1 prospect and in the Top 100 of all MLB. Trading Farmer would subtract what is now redundant depth for a considerable cost savings.
  24. stringer bell
    In an earlier post, I disagreed with a criticism of Baldelli. For the record, I think he's a decent manager, but not among the very best. Most of what a manager does is limited by his roster. You can't have much of a running game if your whole team is made up of plow horses. You can't play for the big inning when you don't have power, etc. Rocco showed that he is amenable to playing small ball with squeeze bunts and double steals when he had the right personnel at the plate or on the bases. He also showed he doesn't have a particularly quick hook for starting pitchers. I don't think the Pythagorean argument really holds much water. It's a nice view of a team's strength, but sometimes, like this year's Padres, you continue to lose close games. I would expect a run closer to the Pythag next year because of regression to the mean (same for the Padres BTW). I didn't like the aggressive pinch hitting moves, particularly subbing right handed hitters for lefties when the other team had several right handed relief pitching options. I thought he handled the bullpen well. It did seem like most of the season he was looking at the big picture and wasn't willing to risk overusing a pitcher and maybe that was helped by not having any other good teams in the division. In the end, managers all know a lot of baseball and they have much more information than the average fan. A manager that has success one year doesn't get stupid the next when the team flounders. They may, however, lose the clubhouse because they didn't treat players properly or were duplicitous in their dealing with them. Rocco seems to be very well-liked by his players.
  25. stringer bell
    Perhaps the hidden defect in having a 40-man roster full of players is that there isn't a lot of room for more players, especially if some players can't be optioned to the minors. I just don't think there is room for Donovan Solano, Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer on the 2-24 Twins. If that is true, who goes and how do they go? I do believe the 40-man crisis on the pitching side is less of an issue, especially with key pitchers Maeda, Gray and Pagán all free agents. Add in the uncertainty of TV revenue for 2024, and the Twins may not be able to add through free agency while losing several players, stripping them of the depth that was so vital last year. However, there are players on the horizon that may add to the top level--Martin, Lee, Severino--but that is not a sure thing. There are several players who appear to be excess at this point. Trevor Larnach, perhaps Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon to name a few, really don't have a role going forward if everyone is healthy. However, the Twins probably need major league depth in waiting in center field and they still need an outfielder that fares well against left handed pitching. Perhaps some of the excess can be traded for those needs, but again there goes the depth. In this scenario, the Twins are going to have to count on their minor league depth to step in and step up. Wallner, Lewis and Julien did that last year. Can Martin, Lee and a couple of pitchers do so next year?
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