stringer bell

If Buxton is not the DH, there is room for all three. I believe Polanco's productions can be matched by Julien and a platoon partner. The $10M+ is a bargain for a club looking for more punch at second base, but it would give the Twins valuable spending room. Two other factors--Polanco (IMHO) is only really viable as a second baseman. I thought he was dreadful at third base and the club has really moved him completely away from shortstop. Secondly, I think it is possible Polanco will decline quickly and soon. Players age differently, but I feel like he has slowed noticeably, perhaps due to injury.

I concur that it shouldn't be called "hate" of Austin Martin. I think perhaps people have been disappointed in his performance and his shortcomings have been highlighted too much. I said this a year ago and I'll say it again--Austin Martin has precisely the skill set that the Twins need. He's a right handed hitter who profiles to make contact and get on base. He has well above average speed and may develop into a real threat on the bases and he's a versatile defender who may be able to play league average defense in center field. Much of his profile is speculation. If he's able to perform as has been speculated, he'll have a large role for the '24 Twins and beyond.

Getting a better-than-#4-#5 starter and a center fielder would eat up all of that $20M and more. I just don’t see the Twins putting up the money for a 1B/DH. Ideally, having a guy that plays outfield and is capable in center and can fill first base and hits right handed would be great. I just don’t see anyone who checks all the boxes.

2022 Twins outfielder Mark Contreras has signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

1B/DH only CJ Cron is about all I can see the Twins spending for. Turner was tabbed at one year--$16M, which would be a budget buster for even a $140M budget IMHO. Hoskins was even higher.

I don't know where to find trade values, but I'd like to suggest acquiring one of St. Louis' excess outfielders in exchange for Trevor Larnach and a pitcher. Dylan Carlson is the guy I think fits best with the Twins. He's a switch hitter with good splits against left handers and he's center field capable. The arbitration estimate is only $1.8M. Adding Carlson would make Larnach expendable IMHO, but Carlson would be Option A to fill center field if/when Buxton can't play there. Larnach and Festa might be an overpay, so perhaps the Twins could get a high-ceiling minor leaguer (not on the 40-man) in addition.

I don't think the 2022 for Gordon profiles near as well as 2023 does for Castro. Hitting-wise they are similar, but defense, base running and versatility all favor Castro by a wide margin. Willi's speed and base running are far superior to Gordon and he's a better defender at second, short and third and pretty equal in the outfield (I'd favor Castro there as well). If there's only room for one true utility player, it has to be Castro.

Late to this thread, so apologies if this has been covered, once a player is tendered a contract, they are eligible for arbitration, so the arb number would be the floor for the coming year's salary. If the Twins can get Farmer to agree to a below-market perhaps multi-year contract, it has to be before the non-tender deadline. Farmer's value as the backup shortstop is lessened in the coming year with Lewis on the squad and Lee ready to come up from St. Paul for any disabling injury to Correa. Willi Castro can play a decent shortstop to fill in for a day or two.

I will say that I'm a big Kirilloff fan but I have a hard time with defensive rating in his case. Especially compared to recent guys who have played a lot of first base for the Twins (Miranda, Arraez and Solano). He wasn't clean at first in the half season that he played there in 2023, but he made his share of good stretches, scoops and fielding plays. Being left handed has plain advantages in playing the position, and that combined with with prospect reports that regarded him as a good defender at first, tells me that he would be fine going forward as a first baseman. The Twins blueprint last year was to have depth at positions where the incumbent has an injury history and it would be prudent to do so in Kirilloff's case, but I would hope that any player brought in for depth would be able to play elsewhere than just be a first baseman. Further, AK, if healthy, would still have to show he can handle LH pitching, so having a capable right handed bat to cover first base does make sense.

Here are my obscure Immaculate Grids for yesterday and today. I’m going for the lowest score with the most ex-Twins. Yesterday I could have used Shannon Stewart instead of Molitor for 200 hits with the Blue Jays.

Farmer non-tendered or traded for a minor leaguer or two. Polanco traded to Seattle for a relief pitcher (I picked Speier from last year's stats, really have no clue) and prospect(s). Larnach traded with near-ready pitcher (Woods Richardson?) for Carlson and a younger prospect. Rodriguez or Giolito picked up in free agency. My guess is whichever is less highly regarded goes to the Twins. Gordon and Martin duke it out for last player on the team. If Gordon wins, Martin goes to the minors, if Martin wins, Gordon gets a DFA. C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Dylan Carlson ($1.80M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.77M) Utility: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Jose Miranda ($0.77M) Backup C: Christian Vázquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($20.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Gabe Speier ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 9.71% under budget

I like the idea of trading a young left handed bat for pitching, be it Larnach, Wallner or Julien. The latter two likely have more value currently, but also have clear roles for the 2024 Twins. Rogers was pretty good before getting injured IIRC, and would be controlled for a shorter time. Cabrera would be a more speculative get, but could really flourish with regular work and good health.

mlbtraderumors.com is predicting 2 years-$18M for Hoskins. While that number isn’t impossible for the Twins to meet, I think it would preclude a major signing for center field and perhaps for the rotation. If either Polanco or Kepler is dealt, maybe the Twins will spend that kind of money on a 1B-DH. Turner would fill a similar role, but being older, he might be available for a similar annual rate on a one-year deal.

I don’t think their numbers were fairly even. MAT’s power surge came at the expense of OBP and strikeouts. Most Twins fans would rather see more on-base and more contact. Kiermaier had over 40 points higher OBP, while Taylor had a 20-points higher slugging percentage.

Yes, according to stats. Both last year and in their careers, Kiermaier has a substantially higher OPS and OPS+. Taylor’s lifetime OPS+ is 83, while Kiermaier’s is 98.

The chances will come, I expect, for any player on the 40-man roster. Last year the Twins used all their position players and they dug deep into their system in 2022.

In conjunction with a Polanco trade, Merrifield would fit very well IMHO. He hasn’t been as good the last couple of years, but he makes contact and is a reliable fielder at second and in the OF. Austin Martin might offer similar skills and versatility at a fraction of the price, but he is unproven.

I would say New Year's Day since this one is labeled 2023.

I pretty much agree. However, defense that is a step above good should be recognized as well as defense that is dreadful (I'm thinking Delmon Young, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit). It is really tough to get a handle on defense, merely looking at number of errors is a waste of time, but every team tends to overrate their defenders IMHO. Taylor was good last year, but most regular center fielders are good.

I agree that Willi Castro shouldn't be Backup A in center field. I'd love to see the Twins pick up one of the Cardinals excess outfielders. I particularly think Dylan Carlson would be a good fit for the Twins. Miranda can be optioned next year, so unless he is traded, I would think he'll at least be in the organization. Coming off his strong season in '23, I would expect Castro to return, but I agree that Farmer is on thin ice as far as remaining on the Twins for the coming season. I think Austin Martin figures into the bench player discussion and he does add contact and speed, two things lacking in the current team. Moran is left handed and breathing, so I think the Twins will go the extra mile with him, although last season was extremely disappointing. Sands and Winder have moved from starting options to low-leverage multi-inning relief pitchers. Their place on the 40-man roster should be in jeopardy. I don't know about options remaining, but if either is out of options, that lessens their value considerably. Fangraphs says all three of these guys have one more option year, so they all could be candidates for the "St. Paul Shuttle". I have speculated that the Twins will keep Varland in Minneapolis as a multi-inning reliever if he doesn't make the five-man rotation out of Spring Training. If the Twins acquire a veteran pitcher for the rotation, I think he starts 2024 in the major league bullpen.

According to BBRef, Taylor was -4 runs from hitting, +1 from base running and +5 runs from fielding. Kiermaier was +2 runs from batting, +1 runs from base running and +18 from fielding. I know all of us liked what Taylor did in the field, but according to this source Taylor was good, but Kiermaier was elite.

Severino and Camargo added to the 40-man, avoiding minor league free agency for both players.

I don’t know if the Twins have “plenty of money to spend” in light of their well-documented and much discussed TV revenue issues. Replacing Gray on the free agent market would be quite expensive with no guarantees. Prospect capital is valuable, but also many prospect’s don’t pan out. The Twins dealt a lot of prospects at the ‘22 deadline (didn’t work), so I don’t know how many are left to use in a trade. Otherwise, someone closer, but less of a blue chip (Larnach, Woods Richardson) could be used, I suppose. I think Polanco could offer value for a team that is trying to win now, same with Kepler. However any team that is trying to win now might be hesitant to deal pitching.

Yes, I would hope that “new” position players would strike out less than the guys they replace. I also would like to see an outfielder who hits left handed pitching. Kiermaier isn’t the answer for that.

More on Kiermaier: Both he and Taylor had around 400 plate appearances last year. Kiermaier had a better BA and OPS, Taylor hit way more homers. MAT struck out 44 more times in fewer PAs. Kiermaier is just under a year older than MAT and stole one more base than Taylor.