stringer bell

My son lived and worked in SF for several years and before being married had an apartment a couple of blocks from the ballpark. When I visited, I felt safe and enjoyed many of the sights and sounds of "Bagdad by the Bay". Their next apartment was near the Embarcadero and again was very nice, but there were homeless within blocks of the building. My son and his family have since moved for work reasons and his final analysis of SF was that it was expensive, but beautiful and culturally enriched, but not a great place to raise a young family. He found the homeless to be a bit of a nuisance, no more, no less.

FanGraphs shows Alcalá with three options remaining.

Dylan Floro also got a major league contract (from the Nationals).

I anticipate a couple of competitions in spring training, including Gordon, Larnach and perhaps Martin. There should also be a competition for the last bullpen spots. Injuries occur, as well, that could change who makes the club and who goes to St. Paul. Castro made the club in 2023 because both Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on IL. He became a key member of the team.

I pretty much agree that Martin has better upside than Gordon. Nick Gordon is a big league player, but his best position is left field and the hit tool isn't good enough, plus he has pretty severe platoon splits and the Twins have three lefty hitting corner outfielders without him. Because the Twins have absorbed so many injuries in the past couple seasons, it is probably prudent to keep him. If everybody emerges from the spring healthy and Martin impresses, the Twins might then let him go, trying to get a prospect for him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Balazovic and Gordon make the team out of spring training, especially if either or both show something in the spring. Because of the payroll reduction, the Twins depth looks to be thinner and to give up on guys that might be able to help the team at the expense of unproven or recovering players is taking an unnecessary risk. That said, Austin Martin fits this club better than Nick Gordon IMHO and I don't think Balazovic is an answer in the bullpen. Perhaps they will be traded or maybe lost due to a DFA.

I think the Twins believe they can coach up athletes to be acceptable defenders. Specifically, Julien came the Twins as a poor defender and he looked unsure of himself the first half of the season. He’s still not polished, but he looked much better as time went on. Yes, the Twins are accepting of strikeouts in exchange for driving the ball. I hope they bring in more guys who strike out closer to 20% than 30%. Austin Martin and Miranda for Taylor and Gallo would help. IMHO, getting 600 PAs for Lewis, Julien and Correa will help defensively and offensively, especially keeping Jorge Polanco away from the left side of the infield.

Good questions Ash, as usual. I think Martin is unproven as an outfielder, but reading between the lines, the Twins seem to believe in his skill set to project him as a plus major league outfielder. We shall see. I think the lack of experience in the outfield will get him a ticket to St. Paul, but he might not stay there long. I can see a role for Martin as a center fielder, left fielder and second baseman. Those are precisely the positions that Nick Gordon has played for the Twins. It might come down to a battle between Gordon and Martin and I like what Martin has to offer much more than Gordon. (BTW, check sprint speeds and you will find that Nick is a 50th percentile runner, exactly average--he is not fast). Having Martin available to play center and left and maybe get some starts at second against left handed pitching would give the Twins a bump in speed and contact and perhaps increase their production against lefties. I hold out hope that he wins a regular job with the Twins, but it is up to him to show that he deserves that much playing time.

In my mind, until and unless a trade is made to reduce salary, the Twins are within $8-10 of the maximum team salary and they currently have four spots on the 40-man roster for free agents or acquiring major league talent for prospects. Their history in trades is to bring in guys who are not free-agents-to-be (Maeda, Mahle, Gray, López, Paddack) and who are at least somewhat established as parts of a big league rotation. How many current teams are considering trading a projected member of their rotation? I'd say the number is not many. I think it will be difficult to find a trade partner and I don't think the Twins have a large number of prospect pieces that they are willing to part with. Would teams looking to 2025 and beyond trade for Vázquez, Farmer, Polanco or Kepler? Maybe the Twins will go for someone like Rogers of the Marlins, who has had success, but has struggled recently. On the free agent front, until they clear some salary, even the Lucas Giolitos of the world are out of their budget range. The contract that MIley got might be as high as they are willing to go unless they get some salary off the books. IMHO, they are going to settle for someone who might bump Varland to the bullpen, but isn't a #2 or even a #3 starter. Since the post season run ended, the Twins have subtracted three position players and added four from their minor league system. They have subtracted eight pitchers and added none. With four open 40-man spots, most or all of their adds will probably be pitchers.

Pagán combined availability and durability in his two years with the Twins. That does count for something. It seems to me that the Twins will need to juggle their front end of the BP a lot more than they did in 2023. I think the available pieces could combine to fill the role, but acquiring a durable veteran bullpen arm would be helpful.

For the record, I don't think the Twins should pursue Hoskins unless his price tag drops to seven figures and he's willing to sign a one-year deal. He's a first baseman only (hasn't played outfield since before the pandemic) and certainly bat-first and he's coming off a significant injury.

As far as late bloomers go, that we can name exceptions pretty much proves how rare it is. Or as my Sociology professor in college said “the exceptions prove the rule.” Players usually peak from their late twenties to early thirties and get more injuries as they age. An exception to the injury rule would be Paul Molitor, but that it is so rare we can name him does not bode well for Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton.

On the position player side, the current 13-man pitching staffs make it very difficult to carry a developmental player for a full season. Having only four bench guys (one has to be a catcher) pretty much demands guys who can be plugged in for a week at one or more positions.

Jorge López got a major league contract with the Mets.

Kepler had already played well over 500 games in the major leagues by the time he was Keirsey's age.

baseball-reference.com provides an interesting factoid for all active players-their current service time. Service time is important in figuring when a player will reach free agency and when they are eligible for arbitration. Six full years of service time are required for free agency and something less than three full years is the standard for arbitration. This year, Alex Kirilloff will qualify for arbitration as a "Super 2" with 2 years and 141 days of major league service time. Royce Lewis is at 1 year and 142 days, so it is likely he will be a Super 2 a year from now. Here are service time numbers for players who weren't on the Twins roster for the full season in 2023 in years and days: Alcalá 4.014. Balazovic 0.065, Funderburk 0.035, Headrick 0,066, Ober 2.093, Sands 1.017, Stewart 2.093, Varland 0.108, Winder 1.065 Woods Richardson 0.006, Julien 0.135, Lewis 1.142, Kirilloff 2.141, Miranda 1.118, Larnach 2.014, Wallner 0.111 Other guys in the arbitration cycle: Duran 2.000, Jax 2.091, Ryan 2.033, Thielbar 5.131, Jeffers 3.089, Farmer 5.129, Castro 4.017 and Gordon 2.136. From the Twins point of view, they have Wallner, Miranda, and Varland in ideal spots--not eligible for Super 2 and not eligible for free agency until they've almost reached seven years of service. It would appear that unless he is banished to the minors, Julien would get Super 2 status after the 2025 season and the same would be true for Lewis a year earlier. This might fuel extension discussion with Lewis soon. If anyone got the short end last year, it would be Ober. He won't qualify for Super 2 this year, but if he had the forty-two or so days that he was optioned to St. Paul back, he would be very close. Lewis, Alcalá and Kirilloff (also Byron Buxton) are examples of guys who have accrued a lot of service time while on the injured list. Alcalá has hurled 105 innings (in 90 games), but has over four years of service. Kirilloff has just over 700 plate appearances in almost three years of service, and Lewis has less than 300 PAs in almost two years of service time. It pays to suffer one's injuries when on the major league roster.

I think the idea would be to put Kirilloff in the outfield and Hoskins at first base.

Keirsey would appear to be a three-years-younger version of Stevenson (without the MLB experience) and I think such talent can be found pretty readily. Another similar profile is Mark Contreras.

With today's 13-man pitching staffs, having a running specialist really isn't feasible long-term. Further, Keirsey is fast, but not that fast.

For those of you that remember "Blanco is key".

Your criticism has been directed at the Twins FO for serving the "Kool-Ade". I haven't heard the FO say Jeffers was untouchable or that he was a superstar.

Please find me the quotes on Cave, Polanco and Arraez. The FO might have a different standard for "acceptable" or "passable" than you do, but never have I heard that Cave, Polanco (at shortstop) and Arraez were even above average defensively. I don't think Lewis has totally disregarded his Twins coaching. I don't remember the quotes from which you are saying that he doesn't adhere to the Twins philosophy. It fits your narrative to say that, but Royce still strikes out plenty. He just happens to be a very talented human being. The Twins need better players to win in post season. Some might be better just by getting experience as major leaguers. I'm seeing 2024 as a season that will depend largely on whether the Twins can maintain their pitching. If they do, I expect they'll win the Central and will have a chance to take another step or more in post season.

Don't know how they called interference earlier because of a slight grab at an arm and then let the Packer defender go through the receiver to knock the ball away. I didn't think the contact in the end zone on the Hail Mary should have drawn a flag.

While it is great news that his knee is healing well from the procedure. The knee has been the principal problem for the past two years, but as we all know, he has a substantial injury history besides the knee. If Buxton can get past the knee injury, perhaps he can be on the field a fair amount of the time. Even if Buxton had a completely clean bill of health, I'm sure the club would be very cautious. Again, given his injury history, he'll probably pull a muscle or something. I consider this news a nice first step. A lot of things have to go right for Buxton to be the "regular" center fielder and having Buxton resolve his knee issues is the first step.

Yes, there will be a lack of proven depth in the coming year IMHO. However the skillset of the projected backups fits well with the established players. If the Twins are going to reduce payroll, this is the least objectionable path.