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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I'd like some closure on a TV deal. I'll do what I have to in order to get as many games on TV (or streaming) as I can. I just want to know what to do. I'm fine if the whole thing goes to mlb.tv, especially if there are no blackouts, but I would just like to know and also know how much it will cost me. As far as the arbitration cases go, I'll be interested in all of the numbers. Willi Castro is also an interesting case, in that he broke out last year after being non-tendered after the 2022 season. In comparing Castro and Nick Gordon, Gordon's lower salary and longer period of team control might sway the Twins toward keeping Nick. I've maintained all off season that a big part of Farmer's value (competent shortstop) is mitigated with having Lewis and Castro on the roster and Lee available for recall in St. Paul. If Correa were to go down for weeks or months, the Twins have someone other than Farmer there to fill the gap. To me, this makes Farmer more of a luxury.
  2. stringer bell
    Ober pitched on 9/24 in 2021. IIRC, he was placed on the IL so that there was room for SWR to get a start on one of the last days of the year. I would say any injury Ober had was akin to Joey Gallo’s foot injury in September of 2023. He made his debut in May of 2021 and the mjnors didn’t have their first games until May 4. I would say he was healthy for virtually all of 2021.
  3. stringer bell
    Bringing back Cousins, extending Jefferson and keeping Hunter would pretty much shoot the budget for all but draft choices, yes? I can't see the team being competitive in that scenario. I don't know if the Vikings can compete with Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago, let alone the other top teams in the NFC. Cousins is an above-average QB, but he needs a better team around him than what he has in Minnesota. Expecting him to to maintain his level of performance is a risky bet and expecting improvement is even less likely. Bringing back Cousins means they want continue to try a "competitive rebuild". I really think they should go with Option B.
  4. stringer bell
    AFAIK Ober had no injury in 2021. The Twins kept his innings down, but he was active until the last week of the season. In 2022 it was a groin issue (not his arm) and in 2023, there was again no injury. To me, he presents a pretty good shot to get to more than 150 innings.
  5. stringer bell
    Why do you think Ober is due to break down? This seems to be an expectation based on an injury history without an arm injury in quite some time.
  6. stringer bell
    Does Cease have more value than Sonny Gray did two years ago? I would say that he definitely does. As a matter of fact, I would think that Cease would have an equal or greater amount of value than López did when the Twins acquired him.
  7. stringer bell
    ZIPS and Steamer serve a purpose IMHO. Both systems try to take bias out of the projection and make realistic predictions of future performance. The more data on hand, the more likely the prediction is accurate. Injuries certainly change things--Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff and Miranda were all adversely affected by injuries last year--and they can't be predicted with much accuracy. That said, if Buxton has played in less than 100 games in eight of his nine seasons in the bigs, it has to be very unlikely that he will be active for an entire season. To a lesser degree, same with Kirilloff and Lewis (shorter careers).
  8. stringer bell
    Go Joe! It looks like a pretty good bet that Mauer is a first-ballot HOF. After days of thinking this is the case, I finally wrote it, so now I probably jinxed him.
  9. stringer bell
    I thought Trevor Larnach was the superior option to Wallner at the start of last year. His first month was encouraging, but he stagnated and was injured. I still think Larnach can be a solid MLB regular, but the clock is ticking and there’s no obvious place for him to play. I do think he and the Twins might benefit from a change of scenery. A trade for a right handed hitting corner outfielder/first baseman of equal value might really help all concerned.
  10. stringer bell
    “Slick” was Gardner’s nickname allegedly regarding his pivot at second base. He was not really slick beyond that IIRC.
  11. stringer bell
    My personal memories of Gardner were that he was kind of an East Coast version of Gardy. As a player, not blessed with an abundance of ability, but scrappy and hard working. As a manager, appreciative of the abilities of his best players, but a guy who also identifies with the role players.
  12. stringer bell
    The Twins have a current rotation of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland. Only one of these pitchers has ever exceeded 162 innings pitched in a major league season (López in '22 and '23). What kind of total innings should be expected from these five guys, barring injury? Of particular interest to me are Bailey Ober and Paddack. Between the minors and majors, Ober threw over 170 innings in 2023. Should he now be a "full go" for 2024? Ober experienced plenty of injuries early in his pro career, but has been healthy two of the last three seasons. His injuries in 2022 were not to his arm, but rather to his lower body. Paddack has had two Tommy John surgeries, the most recent occurring early in 2022. He made it back on the mound for the Twins after they clinched the division and pitched very well out of the bullpen in post season. Most comments on Twins Daily indicate he should not be expected to exceed 100-120 innings this year. I don't know if medically he should be that limited. Barring a disabling injury, I don't see any reason he shouldn't approach 150 innings, but I'm really in the dark about what expectations should be for the second year after TJ surgery. Ryan has bumped up close to 162 innings both of the last two years. He was sidelined more than two weeks by COVID in 2022 and suffered a groin injury that in retrospect limited his effectiveness in the second half of 2023. Can the Twins look for him to move toward the 180 innings mark? Louie Varland isn't guaranteed a rotation spot, but has pitched uninjured since all minor leaguers were limited by COVID in 2020. If he makes the rotation out of Spring Training, can he be expected to work full-time innings if he's in the rotation. I know it is prudent to have depth pieces lined up behind the projected rotation. How much depth would be influenced by limitations the coaching staff and front office place on those projected starters.
  13. stringer bell
    I haven't seen this posted anywhere so I'll start a thread. Former Twins' manager Billy Gardner died January 3rd. Gardner was a light-hitting second baseman who played for the Twins in their inaugural season (1961). Gardner was on two World Series teams as one of the last men on the bench (1954 Giants and 1961 Yankees). He managed the Twins from 1981 through 1985 and also managed the Royals in 1987. RIP Billy Gardner.
  14. stringer bell
    Well, I know the Vikings were really hurt by injuries this year, but watching teams trying to win in the last game everyone is decimated. I think the season was too long with sixteen games and a seventeenth just makes the injury problems worse.
  15. stringer bell
    Watching Green Bay and Chicago play and there's more talent there than I thought. Detroit is pretty good right now, especially on offense, and Green Bay and Chicago are on the rise. The Vikings will have to get much better just to keep pace.
  16. stringer bell
    I don’t think a bona fide #2 starter will be acquired during the off season. I’m starting believe the Twins will try to find a hidden jewel, maybe someone who labored with a bad team, like Colorado or the Athletics.
  17. stringer bell
    So far, it looks like the Bills need to win to make the playoffs. For some reason, I’m pulling for them. That should make the final game pretty exciting.
  18. stringer bell
    Only need four upsets to make the playoffs—Vikings over Packers, Cardinals over Seahawks, Bears over Packers, and one of Falcons over Saints and Panthers over Bucs. A truly tall order.
  19. stringer bell
    According to mlbtraderumors.com, Sean Manaea has agreed to terms with the Mets. Two years $28M. Paying that much for players like Manaea makes no sense to me. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mets-in-agreement-on-two-year-deal-with-sean-manaea.html
  20. stringer bell
    Alan Busenitz re-upped with the Reds. He pitched for the Twins in 2017-18 and then went to Japan. Busenitz pitched a few innings for the Reds last year and now has been signed back by Cincinnati on a minor league deal. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/reds-re-sign-alan-busenitz.html
  21. stringer bell
    I’ll also note that, with the exception that of Julien, the late-round finds are pitchers. Maybe the Twins are good at developing and building successful pitching. They have tended to choose hitters in the early rounds and with their international signings.
  22. stringer bell
    I was thinking that at some point this year the Twins might have as many as eight #1 picks on the field—Kirilloff, Lee, Correa and Lewis in the infield and Wallner, Buxton and Larnach in the OF. Maybe Gordon at second and Lee at shortstop would be all eight being first rounders for the Twins. To the OP, yes having later round draft choices thrive really helps a franchise. The truth is that every successful team has a mixture of home-grown high choices plus players acquired by other means or lower picks.
  23. stringer bell
    Yes, I like López a lot more than Gray. But weight loss alone does not guarantee durability. I think there's a really good chance that Pablo will be an ace, but it's not a certainty.
  24. stringer bell
    2.3% is infinitely more than 0%. I think you have to try to win Sunday rather than using the game for evaluation, I agree that the Vikings are not worthy of making the playoffs. but they wouldn't turn down the opportunity.
  25. stringer bell
    So, this is where I think the Twins are in a bind. What is a solid #3 starter worth in terms of players in return? Are we saying at least one of the top three prospects (Rodriguez, Lee, Jenkins)? Does the fan base agree with that? On top of that, what kind of salary would this hypothetical #3 starter get? Since the Lucas Giolitos and Frankie Montases of the world are getting >$15M, a #3 starter would figure to have a similar salary. If he is under team control the arb number would be in that area. If the Twins add a #3 starter's salary, they probably will have to subtract salary. Finally, any team willing to unload a #3 starter probably doesn't want to add the salary of a Kepler or Polanco. I think it's really tough to thread this needle.
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