stringer bell

Fascinating to see the club add so many 30 y.o.+ relievers who are not household names. I would hope they strike gold with a couple, but none are anything close to a sure bet with Topa being the most likely to succeed. With the DFA of Balazovic, we're now to the point where any more moves are going to expose guys that somebody thinks will be a significant piece of 2024.

IMHO Nick Gordon isn't the super utility guy, Willi Castro is. Willi is probably the preferred choice to fill in at second, left or center and certainly against left handed pitching. Castro is a better shortstop than Gordon and better at third base. So, the position in play is really fourth outfielder. That rules out Miranda unless there is another vacancy and leaves the competition for the spot between Larnach, Gordon and Martin. Larnach has the superior power profile, but hits left handed as Kepler and Wallner do, and he doesn't play center field. Martin hasn't seen a major league pitch, but hits right handed and can play in the infield, probably second base only. Gordon has flashed good offense in 2022, can also play second base, and is out of options. Gordon probably "wins" on Opening Day unless Larnach or Martin really impress in the spring. If Martin makes it to the majors in the first half of the year, he could end Gordon's time with the Twins if he shows he is a capable hitter and outfielder at the MLB level.

One of Royce's biggest hits was a 14-hop single up the middle against Pressly in Houston. I believe he had homered earlier in that game, but he hung in there against a premier closer and got a tying single in the ninth where the Twins won in extra innings. He does seem to be able to rise to the occasion like few are capable. Like Kirby (and few others) he seems very positive and likable. I particularly don't expect him to maintain a really high batting average, but he will be dangerous as a hitter. I hope for good health for him and lots of opportunities to shine.

Since he had an option remaining, once Castro signed with the Twins, they had no risk of losing him unless they wanted to expose him. As it turned out, the Twins never used Castro's option and moved him to the major league roster on Opening Day.

......and going first to third on a single and scoring from first on a double. Those were the things that made Molitor a great base runner even into his late 30s and 40s. It is what infuriates me with guys like Kepler and Kirilloff who have okay wheels but don't squeeze out the extra bases. Stolen bases are nice, but taking the extra base is just about as important.

Isn't it more like two years since his surgery? A lot of similarities to Maeda in the timing of his return from TJ, but Paddack is much younger and relies much more on the fastball and changeup. We don't know what kind of sustained velocity he can muster, but the heat is there for short outings. Pitchers should know about recovery and innings and Hawk and Perk qualify as experts although they are "company men".

I think things will shake out so that Martin gets his chance fairly early in the season, either by injury or poor performance. I like what he is projected to bring to the table, but as mentioned above, so far it is projection only. I did some checking on Martin's speed and he is reported to be above average, but not elite in scouting reports. They also say he has great instincts on the bases and will be a plus base runner. Just a reminder, Ronald Acuna Jr. stole over 70 bases last year and his sprint speed is only 65th percentile.

It doesn't happen very often, but the Twins got away with designating Ryan Jensen for assignment. He was not claimed and his contract remains property of the Twins. The team has not had much success with DFAs, most of the players being claimed. They were able to designate both Henriquez and Moran after the season last year and now have succeeded in outrighting Jensen as well. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/twins-outright-ryan-jensen.html

Kirilloff's defensive numbers were poor last year. I don't think they will continue to be so if he gets regular work at first base. He's fairly sure-handed, taller than the other options that have played there for the last few years, and has decent range. I think it's also important to utilize the advantage that left handed first basemen provide and IMHO those advantages are not fully realized in some defensive metrics.

Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington: Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid. Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later. Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva. A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities). Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence. Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field. Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.

I see Martin as the far better fit between him and Nick Gordon. Both would probably be eligible for starts at three positions—2B, cf, and lf—and Martin would be a better on-base performer and threat on the bases. The team needs another right handed hitter in the outfield and adding Martin’s speed and versatility would be ideal. I continue to wonder how fast Martin is. Does anyone have a current sprint speed or other measure of his speed?

The Marlins are reportedly interested in Gio Urshela. Coming into ‘22, I thought Gio might end up being the Twins primary shortstop. Would the Fish consider him for that role? I wish Gio the best. I’ve never heard one negative about him as a person or teammate, but I don’t know if he’s a fit in Miami.

Good health Pablo! I think Skubal will be really good, as well, but López is ahead of him right now.

José Godoy, a catcher who had a minute with the 2022 Twins, signed a minor league deal with the Rangers along with the obligatory invitation to Spring Training. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/rangers-sign-three-to-minor-league-deals.html

The reason it is kind of a big deal is that the team has struggled hitting left handed pitching since at least 2020. There are "regulars" at seven positions and the catchers will split time regardless of who is pitching. Of the left handed hitting "regulars", all showed pronounced platoon splits and last year, so did Willi Castro. Plugging in Farmer and Santana helps things, but Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien all were pretty bad versus lefties last year. Kepler was better, but his lifetime OPS vs. lefties is .141 worse than against right handers. It would be better balance to add one more right handed bat in the outfield. Going forward, it's not a disaster to go with the projected starting lineups, but they remain far better against right handers.

I picked 89 wins last year and came up a bit over. I think the same number is optimistic, but heck, I see green grass outside during the first week of February! Since a year ago, there are probably four new starters in the everyday lineup and the Twins now have a twenty-something ace to lead their rotation. Injuries will happen, unexpected results, both positive and negative are a near certainty. Although there are plenty of question marks, I'll guess high again on win total.

Conventional Wisdom?

Larnach and Miranda can be optioned this year. I would expect both to start their season in St. Paul and both to have chips on their shoulders.

I reluctantly agree with the likely choices of Thompson and Duarte. It seems the club likes both guys and they probably have some hope of getting them through unclaimed. Other choices would be the two out-of-options guys on the edge of the 26-man roster--Nick Gordon and Jordan Balazovic. I don't see either of those guys going unclaimed, Balazovic because of potential and Gordon because of past performance. I wonder if either or both can be traded for similar value with options or for prospects.

Bobby Witt is what Royce Lewis is, but without the injury history, and he's a true shortstop. I would say it is a no-brainer to extend Witt, he's gonna be great as long as he's healthy. I'm not so sure that the Tigers extending a guy who wasn't so highly regarded but raked in the minors is a great move. We shall see. In general, I don't think taking cues from Detroit or KC is the way to go. The Royals have been building and rebuilding since they went to the World Series in '15(?) and the Tigers were dreadful for the last seven years. Both teams have had a lot of Top 5-10 picks in the last decade. Durán has two years of service time, Lewis one-plus, Julien less than one. Maybe after this year, and with more revenue certainty, the Twins will look at locking up some of these guys.

My hope is that Santana starts some of the time versus right handed pitching and most of the time versus left handers, until and unless Alex Kirilloff shows he can hold his own against lefties. Against right handed pitching the DH/1B role (paired with Kirilloff) looks like any of six non-catcher position players could DH with Castro taking a place in the field, the other option being Kirilloff and Santana both in the lineup, one at DH and the other at first. Against lefties, Farmer, Santana and probably Castro get starts with three of four of Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner and Kepler getting days off, maybe only two if Willi continues to struggle against port siders.

To me DeSclafani is a double-edged sword. I don't think his upside is that low. He signed a nice contract three years ago as a middle of the rotation starter. His problem since has been injuries. He only pitched 19 innings in 2022 and less than 100 last year. DeSclafani was very effective for his first six starts (1/3 of his season) and reasonable effective through May (11 starts). I have to believe that his ineffectiveness in his last seven starts (28 ER in 32.1 IP) was the result of injury and he was shut down after July 23rd. Why this is a double edged sword is that it's quite possible the Twins will get minimal innings out of him. I've seen here that he's not yet throwing in the off season, so he really might not provide depth to the rotation at all. The other side of this is, if he gets fully healthy, I think there's a great chance that he'll give the Twins a lot more than Kenta Maeda did last year. Honestly, I think the chances are greater that he is never healthy and thus a non-factor, but there is some hope that he could be a real contributor. Regardless, I don't see him as a Bundy type who is going to throw substandard stuff over the plate and hope that he has great command and good BABIP luck every time out.

To me, the rotation looks pretty good if, and it is a huge if, the top three guys establish themselves this year. It seems the consensus is that López is and will be a #1 pitcher. I really like him too, but another good/great year would move him up to that level among people who aren't cheering for the Twins. The same for Ryan and Ober as above average starters--last year's performance was that, but they need another year to back it up IMHO. If those three can put up the innings and other numbers, then the rotation is pretty good. I also like Paddack to be really good this year, fully healthy and motivated. The #5-#8 spots are not well defined and there's not a ton of upside. My fervent hope is that this group's performance is not what determines success or failure.

They certainly haven't spent the kind of money that a #2 starter would command. They've brought in two older guys still under team control--Topa and Jackson--as an interesting twist in addition to Stewart last year.

The position player side of the house looks well stocked with projectable talent and several young players on the cusp of stardom on the big league roster. I am less certain about pitching.