stringer bell

Kirilloff gets the run home and Martin gets a two-out run scoring single. That is two guys I'm pulling for and glad to see them start out with good at-bats.

Four outs by the Twins, three via strikeout. Some things don't change.

Three hits, all singles, no walks and two Ks for Varland through two innings. Probably as far as he'll go.

Would you rather have Grant Balfour or Bob Walk?

Given the focus on “right sizing” payroll, trading Kirilloff makes less sense than ever while he is affordable and cost controlled. It isn’t here now, but on the horizon, there might come a time where the Twins might have to decide who to keep and who to let go among young veterans.

I was hoping to see Martin in center and Castro in left.

Gleeman & the Geek’s latest free podcast confirms my fears about Santana’s usage. Santana figures to be the primary first baseman and will get a lot of starts against right handed pitching. This leaves Kirilloff as the backup at first, likely platoon DH and occasional left fielder. It would appear that there might be a “prove it” message to AK as well as an understandable hedge against injury. I’m sure Kirilloff will get plenty of chances to improve his value, but those opportunities are not unlimited.

The front office did say they were looking for 1B help, not the same thing, but related. Bringing in Santana at $5.25M could mean a lot of things. It could just provide a right handed platoon partner, it could mean he will be the regular first baseman or most likely, it is somewhere in between. With Santana being a switch hitter and superior fielder, he most likely will not be strictly platooned, with Santana getting a higher share. I don't think the disparity on defense will be that stark this year and it would help Kirilloff's case dramatically if he did better in his chances against lefties.

Buxton has a lifetime 89.5% base stealing percentage, which is excellent. I see no reason for the percentage to go down significantly. I don't think he will run unnecessarily to boost his stats, but getting more than 20 steals if he is healthy sounds about right. As far as opportunities, Buxton drew significantly more walks in 2022 and 2023, which is another good way to give him stealing opportunities. His position in the lineup probably will also determine how much he will run. I think it is important to note there is a lot more to base running than stealing bases and the low numbers from Vázquez and Correa illustrate this. Kepler's relatively low standing also confirms my eye test. Being aggressive, but smart on the bases doesn't require great speed. There are a few guys with pretty decent speed who run bases like catchers.

Once more into the breach about Kirilloff's defense: he's 26 years old, principally playing the last defensive position on the defensive spectrum. Like any big leaguer, he has demonstrated he can catch the thrown ball to him and I doubt his range or flexibility is limiting him from being an adequate defensive player. Available defensive metrics say he was a poor defender last year, but prior to that there weren't any red flags about his defense at first base, including his two partial seasons with the Twins. I'll say it again, that since he is left handed, he has advantages over right handed first basemen. Perhaps it was his injury that impacted his defense at first base, I've heard mention that his first inning error against Houston in Game 3 of the ALCS was related. I think there is a good chance that his defense will revert to league average and I doubt 38-year-old Carlos Santana will put up Gold Glove defense. While he has been described as solid at first base, his 11 DRS last year would appear to be an outlier.

Old Friend Kyle Garlick signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks. He has been on the edge of the major league roster for the Twins for three years. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/diamondbacks-sign-kyle-garlick-albert-almora-to-minor-league-deals.html

I still believe in AK’s hit tool as superior to almost everyone on the team. He’s only 26 and has endured about as many injuries as Lewis and hasn’t been able to stay on the field for a whole season. He’s shown enough flashes to give everyone hope and encouragement but not enough to be trusted. He's taking BP with the other players, so he has apparently dodged a severe injury of the shoulder. It appears he will be ready to play in the spring training games, certainly a step forward from last year. Since he was a prospect, he’s been regarded as a better fit at first base, but he’s played a fair amount of outfield. With Santana and his defensive rep on the squad, AK might end up with some significant time in the outfield and DH. I know by all measures and metrics, that Kirilloff graded poorly at first base last year. I still maintain that he has the tools to be an above average defensive first sacker. I remember watching him at ST the year COVID hit and he looked comfortable and smooth at first. He has the advantage of being left handed and over six feet and seemed very capable scooping low throws. Perhaps not having a regular off-season and rehabbing from injury has cost his development defensively. If Santana takes at-bats away from him versus right handed pitching (as I fear he will), Kirilloff can get some of those ABs back by being a better hitter than Wallner. I think it is foolish to consider trading a guy like Kirilloff at this point, but a few months or certainly a year from now, that situation could be completely changed.

Kirilloff’s wrist and shoulder injuries have been to his right (non-throwing) shoulder. IIRC, he did have elbow surgery to his left elbow. His throwing arm is rated below average.

I'd like to see Castro free to move all over the diamond as opposed to being a backup at one position. I think Martin can be the better offensive player and Castro's equal as an outfield defender. Let Willi fill in everywhere and give the regulars a day off. Hopefully Martin shows he's capable in center and left.

Solid pickup at a bargain price.

JD Martinez wouldn’t be part of a platoon, but assuming good health of Buxton, he’s going to be the DH about 40 games at least. I don’t know if there’s room for a DH only on the 2024 Twins.

Yadi will be a first ballot Hall of Famer despite offensive stats that are not HOF-worthy. Part of why the Mauer vote was intriguing is because of his relatively short time behind the plate. I think defensive stats and metrics can be inaccurate and disproportionately affect WAR.

Derek Law, who had nine appearances with the 2021 Twins, signed a minor league deal with the Nationals. Law has been a decent last man in the ‘pen for a while. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/nationals-derek-law-agree-to-minor-league-deal.html

Agree with @Riverbrian 100%.

It could be that the Guards and Rangers had the amount displayed as part of the bankruptcy proceedings. Since the Twins were not under contract with Bally/Diamond, perhaps both sides are able to not disclose the exact amount.

I expect Camargo gets his first MLB action this year, but I'm far from convinced that he's more than a warm body to back up either of the two guys in front of him. Everybody hit with power in Triple A and I don't know if he is anything special defensively.

I think "regular catcher" in Rocco's book is no more than 100 games behind the plate. If Jeffers hits like he did last year the first quarter of the season we might see him DH a bit more. It would be a huge surprise if both catchers avoid the IL this year. My best guess as to distribution of starts is 90-60-12 with the equal chance that Jeffers or Vázquez gets injured, and it is probably both.

Further additions to the rotation? I'll believe them when I see them. Personally, the money paid for decent to mediocre (or worse) starters in free agency just blows me away. The Twins have managed to trade for good starters (Gray, Maeda, Ryan, López) but it seems to me that more and more is needed to get these guys. Maybe they will develop more in their system going forward.

Piggy-backing rules out two multi-innings guys for several days. If there is someone else having a short start within a day or two of voluntarily using two pitchers for multiple innings, then chaos tends to ensue. Limiting Paddack's innings (to me) means that he won't get that questionable sixth or seventh inning. Also, if he seems to be losing a little, they would be prone to putting him on the IL for a "tired arm" or some such. Finally, if the Twins are trying to nurse both Paddack and the fifth starter (perhaps Canterino), we might see some recalls to give pitchers and extra day or two. They used Varland like that at least once and I would expect Woods Richardson or someone else coming up for a cameo in the course of the season.

Anecdotally, here are my thoughts/memories on Jeffers' 2023 defense: 1) Throwing/stolen bases: Jeffers was about league average 13/53 and considering that bases are easier to steal off right handed pitchers and that right handers logged well over 90% of the innings for the team in 2023, I think that number is respectable. 2) I remember Bremer bragging that Jeffers had blocked 100% of expected low pitches sometime during mid-season and he promptly let a low pitch go to the backstop. Overall, I thought RJ was okay blocking low pitches, but he seemed to slip a little as the season wore on. 3) I mentioned in an earlier post that I recalled Jeffers having a good "Catcher's ERA" (better than Vazquez), but I can't find that stat right now, (if someone would enlighten us that would be great). 4) Also mentioned earlier, the various sources are all over the board on defense, not only for Jeffers, but Carlos Santana and many others. I think catchers are probably the hardest to judge with much of their rating depending on an umpire's judgement or how much working well with a pitcher (calling a good game) matters and how much is the catcher. I thought Jeffers was more than acceptable defensively in 2023. He may have worn down a bit at the end of the season, but his hitting was so far superior to Vázquez that it was proper that he start all the post season games.