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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    We've had variations of this discussion for a while. The Twins had three young left handed hitting guys that hammered right handed pitching. All three were dramatically less effective against left handers. Resting LH hitters against the occasional southpaw makes sense, but automatically benching them no matter how they've been going might be an overreaction. Probably the thing that bothered many of us most was early pinch hitting for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner--often out of the game by the fifth inning. If the Twins are going to have four left handed hitting regulars, maybe two and sometimes three could/should be on the bench versus a lefty, but I would hope that all would get more shots than they were given in 2023. Kepler's usage is what I would hope the other guys get in the coming year. He wasn't strictly platooned, but he wasn't in the lineup frequently with a left handed starter on the mound. Max had close to 500 plate appearances and 80% were against right handers. I can excuse Baldelli for going to right handed options last year because, by and large, the right handed hitters did their job, especially compared to what the left handed hitters produced. Secondly, Farmer, Solano and Willi Castro were superior defensive options to Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner respectively. Going with the better defender in the late innings when you have a lead is solid strategy.
  2. stringer bell
    Miranda was shut down from a shoulder problem that first surfaced in Spring Training. It was said when he was shut down for the year that he never really got through the pain and stiffness. While his poor hitting can't be 100% excused, the injury should also be considered when looking at his 2023 season. A year earlier, he had burned through AAA hitting better than anyone in the Twins' system IIRC.
  3. stringer bell
    Pop ups--I know you mentioned it earlier, but he caught them didn't he? I think a guy like Alex, who has a lot of experience in the outfield as well, should be able to handle infield flies with more work on how they often come back towards the field. As far as some of the nuanced plays, yes some guys always seem to struggle, but that wasn't Kirilloff's rep at all, so maybe it's a bit of an outlier. To be honest, I remember Solano chasing more balls he shouldn't than Kirilloff. I watched AK pretty intently in spring training of 2020 before COVID hit, mostly doing drills. He looked more than comfortable to my eyes and did make the scoops and fielded grounders routinely. Actually the only game action I saw of him that spring was in Clearwater. He ran down a pop fly that day and scooped a couple of throws. I don't know if any balls were hit on the ground to him. In limited time at first base in '21 and '22, Kirilloff posted satisfactory defensive metrics. Last year, for whatever reason, they were very much subpar. Why would a 25-year old suddenly get that much worse at his position? I think if it is more than an outlier, it could well be his recuperation from two surgeries and the rehab the went with it and perhaps the should was a direct reason late in the 2023 season, I don't know. I've also stated that left handed throwers have advantages at first base. They can stretch a little further on the outfield side and throws to second and third are easier, as are cutoffs. Bringing in Santana should send AK a message that he needs to work on his defense. I really don't like seeing youngish guys relegated to DHing if there isn't a limiting injury. I hope he claims the first base job full time and I think he's capable of that, if healthy.
  4. stringer bell
    I guess I got the months wrong. I know Miranda wore down late in the 2022 season. I was responding to a post that said that Severino was ahead of Miranda, the point being that hitting well in the majors is pretty significant compared to what a player put up in AA/AAA, especially when offense went pretty crazy in Triple A last year.
  5. stringer bell
    Part of who is playing on a given day is health, part of it is matchups. None of the Twins left handed hitters had reverse platoon splits, but they faced several left handed pitchers who were weaker against left handed hitters. If you dig deeper, it may be that the all-right handed lineups were up against guys who were elite in 2023 and hence the Twins chances would be worse than facing a run-of-the-mill guy. I think there are too many variables to just say that a left handed bat or two should be inserted.
  6. stringer bell
    Overall evaluation isn't based only on last season. The most significant stats posted (IMHO) were what Miranda put up in 2022 in a pennant race when he was probably the team's best hitter is July and August.
  7. stringer bell
    If Margot is close to 100% after recovering from his knee injury, he's a really good player to have in the role for which the Twins are slotting him. He would provide excellent defense and about league average with the bat, and better against left handed pitching. While I really want to see what Austin Martin can do, it makes sense to proceed with a veteran player as the backup CF and platoon LF. It will be interesting to see how committed the Twins are to the veteran guys they have acquired at bargain rates (Santana $5.25M, DeSclafani $4M, and now Margot $4M). When they had $11M invested in Gallo, they held on to him, Vázquez and his $10M got a majority of starts at catcher until the playoffs, but these guys are getting less than half what Vázquez and Gallo were making last year. I would hope the leash won't be as long in 2024.
  8. stringer bell
    It is pretty certain that to start the season Santana will be the first baseman most of the time. If the Twins are facing a right hander in March/April, it looks like Kirilloff will DH most of the time and Smooth will be at first base. As the season wears on, I'm hopeful things will change. First of all, I'm sure Rocco will rotate several through the DH role, in which case I presume AK starts at first and Santana rides the pine. Secondly, I'm hopeful that Kirilloff hits well enough that he's a must in the lineup versus right handers and he's good enough versus lefties that he isn't pinch hit for automatically and maybe starts some games against southpaws. It has been pointed out widely that Kirilloff was not a good defender at first base last year. I've said it a few times and I'll say it again that there is no reason why he can't be at least average at first base and probably much better than that. There were no red flags about his first base defense as he ascended to the majors and he looked good there in cameos in '21 and '22. Maybe it was something to do with injuries that he was playing with, maybe it was random, I don't know. I'll also state that I have a bias about first basemen being over six feet tall and prefer them to be left handed. Carlos Santana's defensive numbers spiked positively in 2023 according to FanGraphs. Why would a guy suddenly become elite at age 37 when his numbers previously were merely above average? I think a big part of that might be randomness, as well. That said, if Kirilloff really is limited with the glove at first base, it is nice to have somebody who has been solid at first base for a decade available.
  9. stringer bell
    Well no. Willi is the Twins best returning defender from 2023 according to runs saved (and my eyeball test). He can take center for Buxton to DH, left for Wallner or Kepler to DH, second for Julien to DH or third for Lewis to DH. Same idea, but I doubt Willi is the DH more than once in a blue moon.
  10. stringer bell
    What nagging injury are you speaking of? According to reports from Fort Myers, Kirilloff is a full-go now at the start of spring training. Santana will be 38 on Eclipse Day and a lot of sand has gone through the hourglass. If Kirilloff isn't healthy again for some or all of the season, it well may be that Santana gets the bulk of the playing time at first base. After all, Kirilloff is twelve years younger than Santana, but does have a significantly longer injury history. I'd love, love, love to see AK get 450-500 at-bats this year and post numbers good enough to plan for him to be the primary first baseman for the next five years.
  11. stringer bell
    The prospect for prospect part of this trade is TBD. It appears that Doncon might not be a true SS, but the bat profiles better than Miller. Adding Margot again shows the commitment to depth that was a big factor in winning the Central in 2023. Having proven major league guys to fill in for injuries and ineffectiveness isn't sexy, but it was a key in the Twins' regular season success last year. The other factor that is clear in this off season is $$$$. The veterans the Twins have brought in on trades and free agent signings cost the Twins way less than market value. DeSclafani ($4M), Santana ($5.25M) and Margot ($4M) were added at discount prices (for the Twins). Calvin Griffith would be proud. It appears to me that Carlos Santana will be in the lineup on a very regular basis, with the primary DH being Alex Kirilloff. Castro, obviously, will get plenty of starts against right handers and I wouldn't be surprised if Margot gets more than a few starts against same sided hurlers. Against lefties, the obvious moves are Margot for Kepler/Wallner and Farmer for Julien. Perhaps a fair amount of Jeffers as DH if he continues to hit like he did in 2023. Martin, Larnach and Miranda are pushed down a spot. We all know that injuries will occur and some guys won't produce as projected. These guys will get their chance, but I doubt it will be on Opening Day. So, if there are no injuries in the month that remains in Spring Training and no more roster transactions, the Twins would appear to be a bit stronger against LH pitching, and about a push vs. righties. Defense should be improved, rotation is less deep and not as strong, but a much deeper bullpen. I don't know if they are a better bet to repeat as Central champions, but with the weakened rotation, I am not too bullish on a playoff run.
  12. stringer bell
    Josh Winder placed on the 60-day IL to make room for Margot. This means he will be out until late May, but could start rehab earlier. He will get major league service time and pay for his 60-day stint.
  13. stringer bell
    I'd take issue with the quote on first base. While Kirilloff graded poorly last year, he is young and has all the skills necessary to be a better than average fielder. I would assume his numbers are much better this year. Perhaps Santana is the best hope for improvement, but a healthy Kirilloff with more reps could provide plenty of improvement.
  14. stringer bell
    That is probably true for most everybody. Look what happened to the Yankees in the regular season and the Dodgers in post season. The Twins are quite top heavy with López, Ryan and Ober,
  15. stringer bell
    Yes, I'd dispute that Louie is and will be better than Paddack. Paddack won't be a workhorse this year, but he could be pretty good.
  16. stringer bell
    I don't like it, but every indication is that Santana just won't be a right handed platoon bat. In many respects, the ball is in Kirilloff's court. If he continues to hit right handed pitching like he did last year, he'll get in there against them. If he can add hitting lefties acceptably, he won't be pinch hit for as often. If he fields better (IMHO he is certainly capable), he'll get more time at first base and won't be pulled for a defensive replacement. I'm a big fan, but I do think it's time for him to step up in areas where he was deficient last year. If we get the 2023 of Kirilloff, he's a platoon DH and won't get to 400 plate appearances.
  17. stringer bell
    I suppose there's a "sweet spot" for Buxton stealing bases. If he were to play 120 games, attempting a steal every three or four games doesn't sound like too much and with his lifetime percentage close to 90%, he could end up around thirty swiped bags pretty easily. A question that won't be answered about Buxton's health this spring is how he holds up to the wear and tear of full season. I hope it is answered in the regular season. It may be that Buxton won't run much despite his still-elite speed just to keep the nicks under control. A lot will depend on how he feels going through the year.
  18. stringer bell
    Miranda is third in the "projection line" at third base. Lewis is there now. If Lewis weren't there, the projected long-term regular would be Lee. It's not so much that Miranda isn't a third baseman any more as much as there are guys of his age that are ahead of him Santana is going to the principal first baseman. There's a snippet in today's BBRef quoting Rocco as saying it won't be a true platoon between Kirilloff and Santana. Reading a bit between the lines, Santana will probably be at first if both are in the lineup and he will get a lot of starts against right handed pitching. This would mean a healthy Kirilloff will be the DH against right handers quite frequently. Santana will likely pinch hit for AK often against left handed relievers, but I doubt the reverse will happen much at all. So, if all are healthy, figure Santana for 100-120 starts at first base.
  19. stringer bell
    Is Niko Goodrum actually a candidate to make the 26-man roster? He checks a lot of boxes, but he hasn't hit well in the majors since what 2019? I'm interested in seeing what positions the guys on the edge of the roster play. It will also be interesting to see who gets game action.
  20. stringer bell
    To me, defense is definitely important. That said, it is far more important in some positions than others. The up-the-middle guys are really important, the corner guys not so much. It would be great to have Brooks Robinson, Mark Grace, Alex Gordon and Roberto Clemente types to man the corners, but a couple lesser fielders at the corners isn’t a season killer.
  21. stringer bell
    Bad defense in center and SS. Decent bat against LH pitching. Nah.
  22. stringer bell
    Agreed. Severino, Kirilloff, Santana and later Miranda will all need reps there this spring for various reasons.
  23. stringer bell
    Just a bit of cherry-picking on the offensive stats? As far as fielding, comparing what happened to Santana with Kirilloff doesn't make much sense, particularly when Santana moved all the way down the spectrum from catcher (by way of third base IIRC). At the end of the defensive spectrum, the biggest criteria is swinging the bat and Kirilloff had a decent half-season with flashes that were much more than decent. Kirilloff has been highly regarded as a hitter for a while now. I'm confident the front office wouldn't be so foolhardy as to sell low on a 26-year old who has shown he can hit.
  24. stringer bell
    Yes, he almost made up for his low batting average by walking that much more. My point was that a walk is getting to first base where a steal is more likely than an extra-base hit.
  25. stringer bell
    2-2 bottom four. Probably the last at-bats for the starters.
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