stringer bell

That is probably true for most everybody. Look what happened to the Yankees in the regular season and the Dodgers in post season. The Twins are quite top heavy with López, Ryan and Ober,

Yes, I'd dispute that Louie is and will be better than Paddack. Paddack won't be a workhorse this year, but he could be pretty good.

I don't like it, but every indication is that Santana just won't be a right handed platoon bat. In many respects, the ball is in Kirilloff's court. If he continues to hit right handed pitching like he did last year, he'll get in there against them. If he can add hitting lefties acceptably, he won't be pinch hit for as often. If he fields better (IMHO he is certainly capable), he'll get more time at first base and won't be pulled for a defensive replacement. I'm a big fan, but I do think it's time for him to step up in areas where he was deficient last year. If we get the 2023 of Kirilloff, he's a platoon DH and won't get to 400 plate appearances.

I suppose there's a "sweet spot" for Buxton stealing bases. If he were to play 120 games, attempting a steal every three or four games doesn't sound like too much and with his lifetime percentage close to 90%, he could end up around thirty swiped bags pretty easily. A question that won't be answered about Buxton's health this spring is how he holds up to the wear and tear of full season. I hope it is answered in the regular season. It may be that Buxton won't run much despite his still-elite speed just to keep the nicks under control. A lot will depend on how he feels going through the year.

Miranda is third in the "projection line" at third base. Lewis is there now. If Lewis weren't there, the projected long-term regular would be Lee. It's not so much that Miranda isn't a third baseman any more as much as there are guys of his age that are ahead of him Santana is going to the principal first baseman. There's a snippet in today's BBRef quoting Rocco as saying it won't be a true platoon between Kirilloff and Santana. Reading a bit between the lines, Santana will probably be at first if both are in the lineup and he will get a lot of starts against right handed pitching. This would mean a healthy Kirilloff will be the DH against right handers quite frequently. Santana will likely pinch hit for AK often against left handed relievers, but I doubt the reverse will happen much at all. So, if all are healthy, figure Santana for 100-120 starts at first base.

Is Niko Goodrum actually a candidate to make the 26-man roster? He checks a lot of boxes, but he hasn't hit well in the majors since what 2019? I'm interested in seeing what positions the guys on the edge of the roster play. It will also be interesting to see who gets game action.

To me, defense is definitely important. That said, it is far more important in some positions than others. The up-the-middle guys are really important, the corner guys not so much. It would be great to have Brooks Robinson, Mark Grace, Alex Gordon and Roberto Clemente types to man the corners, but a couple lesser fielders at the corners isn’t a season killer.

Bad defense in center and SS. Decent bat against LH pitching. Nah.

Agreed. Severino, Kirilloff, Santana and later Miranda will all need reps there this spring for various reasons.

Just a bit of cherry-picking on the offensive stats? As far as fielding, comparing what happened to Santana with Kirilloff doesn't make much sense, particularly when Santana moved all the way down the spectrum from catcher (by way of third base IIRC). At the end of the defensive spectrum, the biggest criteria is swinging the bat and Kirilloff had a decent half-season with flashes that were much more than decent. Kirilloff has been highly regarded as a hitter for a while now. I'm confident the front office wouldn't be so foolhardy as to sell low on a 26-year old who has shown he can hit.

Yes, he almost made up for his low batting average by walking that much more. My point was that a walk is getting to first base where a steal is more likely than an extra-base hit.

2-2 bottom four. Probably the last at-bats for the starters.

Kirilloff gets the run home and Martin gets a two-out run scoring single. That is two guys I'm pulling for and glad to see them start out with good at-bats.

Four outs by the Twins, three via strikeout. Some things don't change.

Three hits, all singles, no walks and two Ks for Varland through two innings. Probably as far as he'll go.

Would you rather have Grant Balfour or Bob Walk?

Given the focus on “right sizing” payroll, trading Kirilloff makes less sense than ever while he is affordable and cost controlled. It isn’t here now, but on the horizon, there might come a time where the Twins might have to decide who to keep and who to let go among young veterans.

I was hoping to see Martin in center and Castro in left.

Gleeman & the Geek’s latest free podcast confirms my fears about Santana’s usage. Santana figures to be the primary first baseman and will get a lot of starts against right handed pitching. This leaves Kirilloff as the backup at first, likely platoon DH and occasional left fielder. It would appear that there might be a “prove it” message to AK as well as an understandable hedge against injury. I’m sure Kirilloff will get plenty of chances to improve his value, but those opportunities are not unlimited.

The front office did say they were looking for 1B help, not the same thing, but related. Bringing in Santana at $5.25M could mean a lot of things. It could just provide a right handed platoon partner, it could mean he will be the regular first baseman or most likely, it is somewhere in between. With Santana being a switch hitter and superior fielder, he most likely will not be strictly platooned, with Santana getting a higher share. I don't think the disparity on defense will be that stark this year and it would help Kirilloff's case dramatically if he did better in his chances against lefties.

Buxton has a lifetime 89.5% base stealing percentage, which is excellent. I see no reason for the percentage to go down significantly. I don't think he will run unnecessarily to boost his stats, but getting more than 20 steals if he is healthy sounds about right. As far as opportunities, Buxton drew significantly more walks in 2022 and 2023, which is another good way to give him stealing opportunities. His position in the lineup probably will also determine how much he will run. I think it is important to note there is a lot more to base running than stealing bases and the low numbers from Vázquez and Correa illustrate this. Kepler's relatively low standing also confirms my eye test. Being aggressive, but smart on the bases doesn't require great speed. There are a few guys with pretty decent speed who run bases like catchers.

Once more into the breach about Kirilloff's defense: he's 26 years old, principally playing the last defensive position on the defensive spectrum. Like any big leaguer, he has demonstrated he can catch the thrown ball to him and I doubt his range or flexibility is limiting him from being an adequate defensive player. Available defensive metrics say he was a poor defender last year, but prior to that there weren't any red flags about his defense at first base, including his two partial seasons with the Twins. I'll say it again, that since he is left handed, he has advantages over right handed first basemen. Perhaps it was his injury that impacted his defense at first base, I've heard mention that his first inning error against Houston in Game 3 of the ALCS was related. I think there is a good chance that his defense will revert to league average and I doubt 38-year-old Carlos Santana will put up Gold Glove defense. While he has been described as solid at first base, his 11 DRS last year would appear to be an outlier.

Old Friend Kyle Garlick signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks. He has been on the edge of the major league roster for the Twins for three years. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/diamondbacks-sign-kyle-garlick-albert-almora-to-minor-league-deals.html

I still believe in AK’s hit tool as superior to almost everyone on the team. He’s only 26 and has endured about as many injuries as Lewis and hasn’t been able to stay on the field for a whole season. He’s shown enough flashes to give everyone hope and encouragement but not enough to be trusted. He's taking BP with the other players, so he has apparently dodged a severe injury of the shoulder. It appears he will be ready to play in the spring training games, certainly a step forward from last year. Since he was a prospect, he’s been regarded as a better fit at first base, but he’s played a fair amount of outfield. With Santana and his defensive rep on the squad, AK might end up with some significant time in the outfield and DH. I know by all measures and metrics, that Kirilloff graded poorly at first base last year. I still maintain that he has the tools to be an above average defensive first sacker. I remember watching him at ST the year COVID hit and he looked comfortable and smooth at first. He has the advantage of being left handed and over six feet and seemed very capable scooping low throws. Perhaps not having a regular off-season and rehabbing from injury has cost his development defensively. If Santana takes at-bats away from him versus right handed pitching (as I fear he will), Kirilloff can get some of those ABs back by being a better hitter than Wallner. I think it is foolish to consider trading a guy like Kirilloff at this point, but a few months or certainly a year from now, that situation could be completely changed.

Kirilloff’s wrist and shoulder injuries have been to his right (non-throwing) shoulder. IIRC, he did have elbow surgery to his left elbow. His throwing arm is rated below average.