stringer bell

I am not surprised by any of these moves. I would comment that the Twins seem to be using far more guys on the roster in games than they have in past years. I don't know if it's because the roster is basically set or because most everyone is healthy and ready to play, or something else.

Back to Headrick--starter or reliever? The OP says he will be starting at St. Paul, which makes sense to me. First of all, as is being covered on other threads, starters make more money. Secondly, the Twins have a dearth of left handed starters. Third, he has at least three pitches, so he does have a starter profile. I would guess the path to the big leagues might go through the bullpen, but he would be on the edge of the roster if he was recalled this year. As to a comparison with Ober, Headrick is a big guy (6'6") as well. He might have some of the "tall guy" advantages that Ober has utilized. In watching Headrick, he threw mostly low leverage innings where throwing it over and eventually getting the game over were priorities. In those appearances, he had some interludes where he looked outstanding. Perhaps he has some repeatability issues, but I see something pretty good. With the starting rotation in St. Paul likely to produce starts for the major league team, if Headrick can get to the "head of the class" and be the first one up (after Varland) for starts. The fallback for all of this would be a chance to contribute as a bullpen piece, perhaps working multiple innings.

Moran had TJ. He's rehabbing the entire season.

Eddie Rosario to the Nationals on a minor league deal. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/nationals-sign-eddie-rosario.html

If Buxton's knee injury indeed is resolved, I think 60 games in center is way on the low end for him. At least one writer with a lot more connection with the Twins has stated that Margot is the backup in center field. While I don't totally concur, I think Castro is stretched a bit in center field and the manager and field staff probably prefer Margot.

The Twins signed a few rather interesting pitchers to minor league contracts. I think Brigham might be the best of the lot, but Bowman and Duarte (who they claimed and later outrighted) have a chance as well.

Willi Castro's emergence in 2023 as a versatile infielder/outfielder was perhaps the biggest surprise of the season. He provided the team with decent hitting, fine defense and outstanding base running. Castro made the team as the "26th man" and was widely expected to be optioned as soon as Jorge Polanco was ready to play. It didn't happen. After a slow start as a hitter, Willi heated up with the weather along with being good in the field and giving the Twins some semblance of a running game on the bases. Castro stayed and provided quality between the lines all season. In reading the position reviews for Twins Daily, Castro isn't listed as the starter at any position. That isn't surprising, but where will he get his opportunities in 2024? It is certain that there will be injuries and disappointing performance from players on the 2024 Twins and Castro is versatile enough that he can fill a role in as many as six spots (everything but first, catcher and pitcher). This year, with improved health from Byron Buxton and three other major league outfielders, I have speculated that Willi might get more time in the infield. Assuming good health for all, he could take days at third, short and second as the regular takes a day at DH. I believe that Castro is the superior defensive option to Kyle Farmer at all of those positions and (as a left handed hitter) he is the better offensive player as well. Castro will turn 27 early in the regular season while Farmer turns 34 in the summer. I think Farmer has to compete with both Castro and Father Time to get on the playing field, although he should get short side platoon at-bats at second base. The other consideration here is whether Willi '23 will carry over to 2024. Aside from a 140 plate appearance rookie year, Castro had been a below-average hitter and last year he compiled an OPS+ of 106, his fielding was outstanding last year where his defensive marks previously were pedestrian and finally the 33 steals and overall excellent base running is the first time in the majors where he was an asset on the bases. The one thing Castro did not improve on in 2023 was hitting against left handed pitching (.636 OPS).yl I think Willi Castro will get more play in the infield in 2024 because Byron Buxton will be a center fielder most of the time and Manuel Margot is a capable fourth outfielder. Kyle Farmer is the less desirable alternative to back up the three infield positions unless there is a left hander on the mound for the opposition. It is for this reason that I am surprised that Farmer is still on the team, but I believe there isn't a single team that would trade for him to be a starter.

The first three items in mlbtraderumors.com today were about the three starting pitchers in the title of this thread. It appears all three will miss time early in 2024 and the injury to Giolito sounds ominous. Gray, of course, was the co-ace of the 2023 Twins staff. He signed a nice contract with the Cardinals early in free agency. Giolito also was a free agent and signed a one-year deal for good money with a mutual option and Verlander is one of the best of this era, winning multiple Cy Youngs and is a lock for Cooperstown. My thought is that starting pitchers are a huge risk with huge investments. There are very few really durable and elite starters and Father Time eventually gets them too. I think it is wise for the Twins or any organization to be very discerning when pursuing starting pitchers. I picture Gray having a season much more similar to 2022 than 2023. Giolito’s season might be over before it starts and Verlander also won’t be the horse he’s been up to now.

Longtime Twins opponent UL Washington has passed away. He was a graduate of the Royals Baseball Academy. My enduring memory was Bob Casey’s announcement when UL came to the plate.

Uh-oh. Sonny Gray is having issues with his hamstring again. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/cardinals-rumors-sonny-gray-injury-tommy-edman-opening-day.html

It's Spring Training and early at that. Sheesh!

Kind of a surprise—Josh Donaldson announced his retirement. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/josh-donaldson-announces-retirement.html

I hope we're not getting too far off topic here. While the stat mentioned may be accurate, it just doesn't mean anything for the future. The number of wins in games started by Maeda and Gray was lower than their stats would predict and the Twins' Pythagorean W-L was also lower than the expected number, so it appears that all of the Twins' bad luck occurred when the two veteran starters were on the mound. Next year those number might reverse themselves and regression to the mean is pretty likely. I still would have a problem keeping guys in their mid-thirties with big raises.

I will be surprised if the Twins lead the majors in Ks this season, but they will still strike out a lot. That is the nature of today's game. One thing that I don't think got enough attention last year was that the Twins' pitching staff led the majors in strikeouts. People watching Twins games last year definitely saw more Ks than fans for any other team.

If the Twins were going to bring in a right handed hitter to fill out their position player roster for Opening Day, I was hoping it could be somebody who would be a regular, starting most of the time and putting up numbers that kept him in the lineup. I don't think Margot is that, so I am disappoint. Margot is fine as a fourth outfielder/Buxton insurance, especially at the cost of $4M. He frees Willi Castro to play everywhere, even if Buxton isn't in the lineup. He has a very good defensive rep and can play all three outfield spots. He still runs well (75th percentile) despite a major knee injury.

I like Miller, but he hasn't cleared Class A and an equally young guy may or may not be ahead of him (De Andrade). The prospect acquired is regarded as about equal to Miller. Margot is a pretty good player who has been slowed by injury. Will he again be an elite defender? His hitting has plateaued slightly below league average. His career splits are much better against left handed pitching, but last year he was not as good against lefties. He's certainly a different player than Michael A Taylor, but he might be just as good, if he's completely recovered from his injuries.

Another scoreless outing for SWR today, although he issued two walks in two innings. I don’t know what the velo numbers were today, but just like Mulder “I want to believe”. Edit to add: On X I found SWR was at 94.5 mph. Good signs!

I certainly concur that we don’t know what we’ll get from Brooks Lee. He could struggle greatly or perhaps be uneven showing he needs more time or he could hit the ground running so much so that he changes everything and is an every day starter from some point this year, never returning to the minors. He is probably much more likely to return to St. Paul. I don’t foresee second, short or third turned over to Farmer on a daily basis and think the Twins would opt for taking a chance on their #2 prospect. Obviously, I could be wrong, but they have aggressively promoted him since he was signed.

Since Margot was acquired, Austin Martin has played second base in two games, none in the OF IIRC. Martin's path to the majors has changed with one acquisition. If someone gets injured, it might change again.

Is Margot booked to back up Buxton 100% of the time? Willi Castro brought a lot of value to the team last year and I wonder if a day off for Buxton might mean a day in center for Willi sometimes, especially if he has a platoon advantage over Margot.

At some point the line is crossed. That line is when young pitchers are protected from being called up too early by having a veteran in line and when they are slowed from getting their opportunity by those same veteran arms. In 2023, Dallas Keuchel didn't cost the Twins in development of pitchers in the system, so his six starts were a positive. If the Twins sign a Keuchel type this year and he takes 6-10 starts that Festa, Woods Richardson or maybe Canterino would take, maybe that guy is standing in the way this year. I think there's another category as well. One filled last year by Chi Chi González, Devin Smeltzer and Tommy Milone (to name a few ex-Twins) and others. They are pitchers that are recalled for maybe one start or two then go through the DFA process. The reason they are used is to avoid using options and 40-man spots on players and prospects. Randy Dobnak may fall into this category this year. So IMHO the question Falvey has to ask is whether the young pitching depth is ready to help in 2024. If so, don't sign a limited upside veteran. If not, a minor league contract offer should be made to one of many available arms.

Thanks for your comments @Riverbrian, always a good read. I guess I don't agree with part of your comments though--I think that if we get past May 1st without a disabling infield injury, the first recall will be Brooks Lee and that he'll play every day until the disabled player returns. The 40-man spot is valuable, but there likely will be disabling pitching injuries that make adding Lee pretty painless. Specifically with Farmer, there is another guy who can play second, short and third and IMHO he's a better defender and that is Willi Castro. With the addition of Margot in the outfield, there should be plenty of opportunities for Castro to play in the infield and at least last year, he was a far better hitter than Farmer against right handed pitching.

I expect Kirilloff will be the DH against right handed pitching pretty often, especially early in the season. That said, it would be a real surprise to see him optioned to start the season.

Another minor injury to a pitcher: Zack Weiss has a teres major strain and is expected to throw to hitters next week.

Who are the guys that were going to play first base in Kirilloff's absence? Miranda is coming off a horrible injury induced year and probably isn't someone you want on the bench for 100-plus games, Julien isn't/wouldn't be a suitable platoon partner for Kirilloff and has played three(?) games at first base. IMHO, the Twins needed an alternate first baseman more than they needed a backup center fielder if Buxton indeed has a relatively clean bill of health to start the season.