stringer bell

I hope we're not getting too far off topic here. While the stat mentioned may be accurate, it just doesn't mean anything for the future. The number of wins in games started by Maeda and Gray was lower than their stats would predict and the Twins' Pythagorean W-L was also lower than the expected number, so it appears that all of the Twins' bad luck occurred when the two veteran starters were on the mound. Next year those number might reverse themselves and regression to the mean is pretty likely. I still would have a problem keeping guys in their mid-thirties with big raises.

I will be surprised if the Twins lead the majors in Ks this season, but they will still strike out a lot. That is the nature of today's game. One thing that I don't think got enough attention last year was that the Twins' pitching staff led the majors in strikeouts. People watching Twins games last year definitely saw more Ks than fans for any other team.

If the Twins were going to bring in a right handed hitter to fill out their position player roster for Opening Day, I was hoping it could be somebody who would be a regular, starting most of the time and putting up numbers that kept him in the lineup. I don't think Margot is that, so I am disappoint. Margot is fine as a fourth outfielder/Buxton insurance, especially at the cost of $4M. He frees Willi Castro to play everywhere, even if Buxton isn't in the lineup. He has a very good defensive rep and can play all three outfield spots. He still runs well (75th percentile) despite a major knee injury.

I like Miller, but he hasn't cleared Class A and an equally young guy may or may not be ahead of him (De Andrade). The prospect acquired is regarded as about equal to Miller. Margot is a pretty good player who has been slowed by injury. Will he again be an elite defender? His hitting has plateaued slightly below league average. His career splits are much better against left handed pitching, but last year he was not as good against lefties. He's certainly a different player than Michael A Taylor, but he might be just as good, if he's completely recovered from his injuries.

Another scoreless outing for SWR today, although he issued two walks in two innings. I don’t know what the velo numbers were today, but just like Mulder “I want to believe”. Edit to add: On X I found SWR was at 94.5 mph. Good signs!

I certainly concur that we don’t know what we’ll get from Brooks Lee. He could struggle greatly or perhaps be uneven showing he needs more time or he could hit the ground running so much so that he changes everything and is an every day starter from some point this year, never returning to the minors. He is probably much more likely to return to St. Paul. I don’t foresee second, short or third turned over to Farmer on a daily basis and think the Twins would opt for taking a chance on their #2 prospect. Obviously, I could be wrong, but they have aggressively promoted him since he was signed.

Since Margot was acquired, Austin Martin has played second base in two games, none in the OF IIRC. Martin's path to the majors has changed with one acquisition. If someone gets injured, it might change again.

Is Margot booked to back up Buxton 100% of the time? Willi Castro brought a lot of value to the team last year and I wonder if a day off for Buxton might mean a day in center for Willi sometimes, especially if he has a platoon advantage over Margot.

At some point the line is crossed. That line is when young pitchers are protected from being called up too early by having a veteran in line and when they are slowed from getting their opportunity by those same veteran arms. In 2023, Dallas Keuchel didn't cost the Twins in development of pitchers in the system, so his six starts were a positive. If the Twins sign a Keuchel type this year and he takes 6-10 starts that Festa, Woods Richardson or maybe Canterino would take, maybe that guy is standing in the way this year. I think there's another category as well. One filled last year by Chi Chi González, Devin Smeltzer and Tommy Milone (to name a few ex-Twins) and others. They are pitchers that are recalled for maybe one start or two then go through the DFA process. The reason they are used is to avoid using options and 40-man spots on players and prospects. Randy Dobnak may fall into this category this year. So IMHO the question Falvey has to ask is whether the young pitching depth is ready to help in 2024. If so, don't sign a limited upside veteran. If not, a minor league contract offer should be made to one of many available arms.

Thanks for your comments @Riverbrian, always a good read. I guess I don't agree with part of your comments though--I think that if we get past May 1st without a disabling infield injury, the first recall will be Brooks Lee and that he'll play every day until the disabled player returns. The 40-man spot is valuable, but there likely will be disabling pitching injuries that make adding Lee pretty painless. Specifically with Farmer, there is another guy who can play second, short and third and IMHO he's a better defender and that is Willi Castro. With the addition of Margot in the outfield, there should be plenty of opportunities for Castro to play in the infield and at least last year, he was a far better hitter than Farmer against right handed pitching.

I expect Kirilloff will be the DH against right handed pitching pretty often, especially early in the season. That said, it would be a real surprise to see him optioned to start the season.

Another minor injury to a pitcher: Zack Weiss has a teres major strain and is expected to throw to hitters next week.

Who are the guys that were going to play first base in Kirilloff's absence? Miranda is coming off a horrible injury induced year and probably isn't someone you want on the bench for 100-plus games, Julien isn't/wouldn't be a suitable platoon partner for Kirilloff and has played three(?) games at first base. IMHO, the Twins needed an alternate first baseman more than they needed a backup center fielder if Buxton indeed has a relatively clean bill of health to start the season.

Given the self-imposed restraints on payroll, I thought Falvey/Levine did a very good job of adding depth to a talented roster that contains a lot of durability question marks. Among the position players, backup roles will be held by veteran players who can step in and there is a deep bullpen. The starting rotation is going to lean very heavily on three guys in their late 20s, and if you are going to lean heavily on a player of a certain age, that is the age range for it. If the Twins can get 80-90% of what they got from their starters in 2023, the club will be in good shape. Ownership OTOH really needs to take a seminar in Public Relations. Promising things you don't deliver is a sure way to invite disdain from the fan base. That was done with the new TV deal. Many or most of us will have to wait a year for a more permanent solution and that solution is probably going to cost more than most of us want to pay. Whatever "right sizing" (or rightsizing) is, fans aren't going to like the picture that is being painted while other franchises in comparable markets spend far more than the Twins do.

The oldest player last year (Rich Hill) is four days older than my son, but two and a half years younger than my eldest daughter. So, yes, they are all kids to me, as well. When a player makes the big leagues who is younger than my grandson, then I'll really feel old.

DeSclafani was only available for $4M because of the heightened injury risk. I still am skeptical that he will get through even the first quarter of the season, but I think that if he does, he’ll be a steal for what the Twins are paying him.

Supposedly minor injuries to Thielbar (hamstring) and DeSclafani (elbow) delaying their throwing programs.

Not a surprise. I would hope that he can be ready, but it was always a gamble that he would stay healthy.

CJ Cron, a member of the Bomba Squad, signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/red-sox-agree-to-minor-league-deal-with-c-j-cron.html

Just to show I'm not blind to it, AK was charged with two errors today in the game against Atlanta, one a throw and the other a missed pickoff throw.

Edouard Julien will play second base the most in 2024 IMHO and he will hit well enough that his defensive deficiencies aren't noticed much. To be fair Julien improved at second a great deal on the major league stage. He doesn't look smooth and may never look the part of a good defender, but he already is adequate. Once upon a time, the Twins had a bat-first second baseman named Todd Walker. Walker hit well for the Twins, peaking with a .316 batting average (118 OPS+) in 1998. The manager was never satisfied with Walker's defense. It's too bad that Walker was not born 25 years later. His defense would play much better with no shifts and no hard slides on double play turns. IMHO, Julien is very similar. They are both left handed hitting SEC players, whose defense is suspect. Because second base is easier to play now, Julien might be able to stick there for several seasons. Julien's bat is probably good enough to be a DH or first baseman. Keeping him at second might be a luxury, but having him available there is an asset. I don't know when Brooks Lee will make his debut. I see he's playing third base today after starting one game at shortstop. To my knowledge, he hasn't play at all at second base, but as stated above, playing second now is a lot easier than it was 25 years ago. If he's as good as advertised, Lee will make his way to the majors and force the Twins to determine who to play and where.

The Twins have acquired three distressed assets in the last few weeks--DeSclafani, Margot, and Santana--who either weren't really a fit for their new team or who didn't have a job. Getting all three for the cost of $13.5M is (IMHO) shrewd, but kind of is the definition of dumpster diving or maybe shopping in the scratch and dent section. Injuries are the main concern for Margot and DeSclafani, while Santana is facing off with Father Time. I'm hoping all three win their battles, but the realist in me sees one or two flailing and mostly failing.

No and no.

First, let me say that I don't really trust any defensive metrics to paint a picture of a player's defense. Now, on Santana, he put up 2.7 WAR according to BBRef--that rather lofty number was fueled by the measure that he saved 11 runs on defense. In his entire career at first base, he's saved 23 runs according to the DRS metric, so almost half of his DRS came in his age 37 season. To me, that sounds like a huge outlier and not a true representation of his value or his defense. Santana hit 23 homers and drove in 86 runs. To me that counts for something. A large part of that something is that he played almost every day and hit in the middle of the order for both teams that employed him last season. The .723 OPS as a left handed hitter was his best in several seasons. It was fueled by more power against right handed pitching than he had accomplished in several years. Still, his numbers versus righties are clearly inferior to Alex Kirilloff. I don't expect Carlos Santana to be an amazing defensive first baseman at age 38, but he has always been solid (above average) and I think too much credit is given to defense at first base. So, on balance, I doubt what the Twins will get from Santana is much above a replacement player and much of that will be from above average hitting against left handed pitching. Kirilloff, in a pretty small sample size, showed he can hit big league right handed pitching, with a hint that he can be much more than above average. Yes, he should be in the lineup against every right handed pitcher as long as he is healthy. When Rocco decides to give regular like Kepler, Correa, Lewis and Buxton a half day off against a right handed pitcher, then Kirilloff should and probably will be the first baseman. I would guess on Opening Day, he will DH and Santana will be at first base. Kirilloff's defensive metrics last year were every bit as subpar as Satana's were good. I don't see why AK can't be at least an average defensive first baseman and I'll continue to believe that his poor defense last year was either an outlier or a result of playing with and recovering from injury. Now, what I am gnashing my teeth about already is the scenario where Kirilloff is at first base and the opponent brings in a lefty in the middle innings. There's probably a 75% chance that Santana pinch hits for AK until or unless Kirilloff shows immense improvement in a small sample size against lefties. The flip side is that Kirilloff will hit for Santana somewhere between seldom and never and seldom is on it's way out of town. Alex might hit for the DH on occasion, perhaps Margot, but he will most likely get pinch hit for much more than he pinch hits. To summarize, Kirilloff is likely to be strictly platooned, but Santana is not. Asking the 38 year old to duplicate his season last year is a big lift and unless injury clears the spot, there will be precious little chance for 26-year-old Alex Kirilloff to prove he's more than a platoon bat.

The only unsettled spot would be the last guy in the bullpen. Staumont has the most experience, but there are a lot of guys that can make a case for that spot. Alcalá and Funderburk being at the front of the line if someone disappoints or is injured.