stringer bell

Going off the projection made in a thread on the Front Page News, I'm trying to put together the projected pitching staff for the Saints in 2024. We all know the major league team will need reinforcements throughout the season, and with the depth the Twins have put together (particularly in the bullpen), it looks to me like the Saints might have quite the powerhouse pitching staff. Starters--Simeon Woods Richardson*, David Festa, Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick*, Caleb Boushley, Matt Canterino*. Bullpen--Ronnie Henriquez, Michael Boyle, AJ Alexy, Ryan Jensen, Hobie Harris, Matt Bowman, Jared Solomon, Jordan Balazovic, Daniel Duarte, Jeff Brigham, Jorge Alcalá*, Kody Funderburk*, Cole Sands*, Josh Winder*, and Zack Weiss*. That is 21 pitchers. I don't know how many of the newly signed guys have opt-outs, and there will be injuries, but without adding any more guys who were in the system last year below St. Paul, that's a lot of arms. I marked an asterisk next to pitchers who are on the 40-man roster. Did I miss anyone? Who is the pick to click from this group?

Bubba we hardly knew ye. Claimed by the Reds. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/reds-claim-bubba-thompson-designate-levi-stoudt.html

Do-Hyeoung Park has weighed in on the Twins official website. He has Miranda instead of Larnach as the 26th man, but otherwise agrees with the prediction of the OP. As much as I didn't agree with Larnach in the role of 4th OF, I think having Miranda as a right handed DH and Castro as basically the only outfield depth is off track. There might be another transaction, but right now I'll stick with my prediction that Austin Martin is on the roster on Opening Day.

I think it is seven days, so we'll get word tomorrow.

Ugh. Syndergaard hasn’t been good since????? Lorenzen threw a no-hitter and then went to …..no good last year.

You’re talking about Correa? It’s my understanding that he’s here for six years with team options after that meaning that he couldn’t be a free agent until after 2028. Looking at this a little deeper, you must be talking about Correa’s original contract with the Twins. Sorry I misinterpreted.

I wonder if an even tighter payroll in ‘25 is why the Twins acquired all these older team controlled guys. Only Thielbar can be a free agent among the relievers and DeSclafani is the only starter. If most of these work out, the bullpen turnover will be limited. Also, it would explain reluctance to even consider guys looking for multi-year deals. I see Soler got three years and the top remaining free agents want more than three.

I have Austin Martin over Larnach due to versatility, RH bat and speed. Having Martin available to play center allows Castro to be a true super utility guy and spreads out DH at bats between the projected starters and Santana. On the pitching side, if everyone is healthy, this looks about right. Funderburk or Alcalá could possibly pitch their way on the Opening Day staff in the bullpen Varland gets a lovely parting gift (Green Line ticket) with a guarantee of a return

I think the salary is guaranteed as soon as a contract is tendered.

The roster, as of today, doesn’t have a regular DH. I am speculating that Castro starts in left, center, second, short and third while the regular takes a half day as DH. That’s what a super-utility guy does and that maximizes Castro’s versatility.. If Buxton can’t play over a quarter of the time in center, the club needs to sign MAT tonight unless there is a somewhat regular center fielder waiting in the wings. It shouldn’t be Castro in center field starting 100 games. It’s probably Willi’s fourth or fifth best position.

I have Bally on my DirecTV package. Along with Peacock, I had access to every regular season game, only to not have viewing access for five of the six post season games. I live outside of Elgin.

Farmer had been +2 for Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop in his career until 2023, when he was -5 in 40 games, 27 starts. Yes, he went to a new club and he played less SS than he had in the previous year, but that is quite a downturn. I think he is on the downslope due to aging and mid-thirties is a time when that aging shows particularly in speed and range. His sprint speed is 31st percentile. I think the club trusts Willi Castro in February of 2024 a lot more than they did in February of 2023. He demonstrated that he could be a very good defender wherever he was placed. Circumstances kept him out of the middle infield in 2023 and might again in 2024, but I think he proved he is more than capable as a defender. On the flip side, Castro was the superior hitter to Farmer against right handed pitching. We are both making some assumptions here, but I'm saying if somebody is to sub in for Lewis, Correa or Julien against a right handed pitcher, I'd pick Castro ten times out of ten.

The options to be picked up are either inexpensive or remote. I see less than 1% chance of Farmer's mutual option being picked up. Alcalá's is for minimal money and Jackson will be 37 next year, so I think picking up his option will be unlikely unless he's both good and durable this year.

Ooh, tough crowd. I'm not the biggest Sonny Gray booster, but he had a terrific year last year despite a ho-hum win/loss record. He made adjustments as he went through games and held teams down when he didn't have his best stuff or command. I expect many of those things to regress towards the mean in 2024, but I don't blame him for his won/loss record.

I think that two of four progressing, with one regressing and one staying the same is more reasonable. Pitchers are darn hard to predict, but not many just keep getting better and better. I do agree that the offense should be better than the first half offense of 2023 and that the bullpen is better to start the year.

In listening to Gleeman and the Geek, the Twins' formula is something like 50% of revenue goes toward salary. If the $46M is the actual number, then they would have about $23M to spend. The actual revenue from Diamond/Bally hasn't been disclosed and I wonder if it might not have been less than the 85% that the teams under contract with Diamond/Bally received. The contract was over, there was no obligation for Bally at all. I'm sure we'll find out eventually.

I see Martin as the more likely choice because of his ability to play outfield. As I may have said before in discussing Brian's takes, I would hope this year the handcuff is more like loosely applied electrical tape. Yes, give them days off versus left handers, but don't pinch hit in the third inning of a scoreless game. On the flip side, I doubt we'll ever see Kirilloff pinch hit for Santana or someone like Martin hitting for Castro. Switch hitting is an advantage, even with a perceived weaker side.

Among available free agents, that would be MAT? Or do you think Duvall should be considered a center fielder as well? I hope not, and if this is so, Castro's utility value would be almost completely wasted. AFAIK, Buxton had one injury that never really healed after surgery (knee) and reports are that the latest procedure has resolved that problem. Given his injury history, no one should pencil him in for 140 games in center field, but (huge assumption) if the limiting injury is resolved, I don't see any reason why he can't start half to as much as two thirds of the games in center with a fair amount of DH work. Nobody knows for sure, but the Twins not bringing in a center fielder tells me they have some confidence that Buxton will be there or an internal option (Martin) is capable of backing him up. Kyle Farmer is a good baseball player, but he's turning 34 this year and I think his range has diminished. A year has passed since he was penciled in as the Twins SS and for a game or two, I don't think he's the #1 answer, I'd rather see Castro (at least the 2023 version of Castro). Willi didn't play much shortstop last year, but I don't know if that will be the same this year. At third, again I see no reason for Farmer to be preferred over Castro against right handed pitching, the same for second base against right handers with Julien as the DH. Rocco uses his bench liberally and Farmer certainly will get plenty of starts in the course of a season, but Castro should be considered on the dirt in front of Farmer against right handed pitching.

With the Gordon trade, I now expect Austin Martin to win the fourth OF spot on the team. I haven't seen enough of Martin to know for sure, but I'm thinking he profiles as a better center fielder than Castro. If that's the case, there is much more freedom to move Willi around. From my couch, I'd say I would much prefer to have Castro in the lineup against right handed pitching at any position that Farmer plays and given his defensive metrics from 2023, that would include shortstop. I'm sure Rocco will get plenty of work for Farmer if he's still on the Twins during the regular season, but I'll say again that Castro should be the choice against right handed pitching.

The most animosity I recall in contract/service time in recent years is when the team didn't call Buxton back several seasons ago, which guaranteed an additional year of team control. I don't even know if it is the current Front Office. Money seemed to paper over any hard feelings in that case. I don't know if trading Gordon was a shot across the bow or was a natural consequence of a roster crunch where Nick didn't fit well. I do believe that other players knowing that if you don't play ball in arbitration you're more likely to be traded may be a message they want to send while having plausible deniability. I don't hear all the rumors about players, but someone who is seemingly well-liked by fans and the field staff (Luis Arraez) seems to have raised some hackles with his contract two years in a row. Gordon had very little leverage although he was in arbitration. I don't know if it was in his best interest to go to the mat for $350K.

With the current roster, Castro could see quite a bit of time in the infield. I can see Lewis DHing and Willi at third base or Julien DH and Castro at second. Related, the bar I want for any hitter acquired at this time for 2024 should be a better offensive option than Willi Castro against right handed pitching.

Jackson will be on the Opening Day roster, I believe. He can't be optioned and the Twins have the option on a second year. The club can carry no more than 13 pitchers. It appears with all the relievers the club has accumulated, they will stay at 13 pitchers. The New York Mets GM story notwithstanding, I would expect a lot of use of the IL and the St. Paul shuttle.

Yes.

They have added a lot of depth in the bullpen. St. Paul should also have a full bullpen. I suppose some of the minor league deals they have signed might have opt-outs. BTW, with the addition of Okert, I think Headrick is in the Saints' rotation and Funderburk probably doesn't make the Opening Day roster.

Yes, you’re correct. Okert didn’t reach the majors in 2019, so I’m guessing he didn’t opt out.