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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Baseball Reference lists Jeffers as positive both in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average and Defensive Runs Above Average, showing that defensive metrics for catchers are all over the place. I couldn't find Catcher ERA, but I recall seeing a post earlier that said that Jeffers in 2023 was better than Vazquez.
  2. stringer bell
    The Twins almost never skip starters unless there is a current health issue.
  3. stringer bell
    Willi had three years of major league experience with the Tigers when he was non-tendered at almost exactly the same age the Prato will be (two years younger than Helman) coming into spring training. Castro had a great 140 PA run in the COVID year (with an obvious BABiP outlier), so his credentials going into 2023 are significantly different than Prato and Helman in 2024. I wish both players well and hope they can reach their major league dream, but to me both are long shots for breaking camp with the Twins.
  4. stringer bell
    Goodrum signed a minor league contract and likely will be a multi-position player at St. Paul. IIRC, Goodrum hasn't played middle infield for a couple of years, so he might be limited in his utility value.
  5. stringer bell
    Not to demean Prato and Helman or to rule them out altogether, but Helman will be 28 and Prato will be 26 and neither has sniffed the majors as of yet. It may be past their time and younger guys will get their chances (Lee and Martin). Adding either to the 40-man so that Martin can get 50 at-bats at Triple A makes little sense to me. Neither guy is primarily an outfielder, although I understand that Helman has played a fair amount on the grass. I just don't know what to make of Triple A statistics right now. Guys without much power are getting lots of homers and guys that aren't great hitters are putting up boxcar numbers, like Andrew Stevenson last year. To me, it's an open competition for the final position player spot and the guys on the major league roster have the advantage.
  6. stringer bell
    I’ve said that Kirilloff has the tools to be a good fielder at first and I do agree that he struggled with popups. For someone who has played as much outfield as Kirilloff, you would think balls hit in the air wouldn’t be a problem, but …. I still think he can be good at first with good reach and being left handed.
  7. stringer bell
    Good point. The thought that is coming to me is that Carlos Santana has always been a full-time player and that he will be in the lineup against right handed pitching more often than not. I don't like that thought. As much as I don't like the idea of Trevor Larnach making the club with his lack of versatility and struggles to hit in almost 700 plate appearances, I'd rather see him as the "regular" DH against right handed pitching than see Santana try to squeeze out one more year of near-league average hitting against righties. Using Castro as a means to rest regulars by having them DH and rotating through as many as five positions makes some sense to me, but it would require for Willi to hit at least as well as he did last year. I wouldn't rule it out, but I don't think it should be Plan A. I really don't want to see another veteran who may or may not be good enough to stay on the club for the entire season. Santana is more than enough for 2024, thank you.
  8. stringer bell
    Martin was put on the 40-man, Keirsey, Prato and Helman were not. None of these guys are waiting to drink their first legal beer. Whoever is better should be “ahead” in the pecking order.
  9. stringer bell
    I don't think Larnach should be the 26th man for the Twins, however I think there's a lot more than 0% chance that he makes the club and runs with it. Larnach looked like the Twins best hitter the first couple of weeks, then the wheels came off and pretty soon he was optioned. He had health issues as well. It was pretty clear that Larnach was clearly ahead of Wallner by Opening Day last year. Trevor didn't do enough with his opportunity and Matt did. This all could be reversed in 2024, all one has to do is look at what happened to Miranda last year. He is a corner outfielder with limited versatility. He has to be a better hitter than his competitors because of that.
  10. stringer bell
    Kind of Kyle Garlick (not lite, but heavy) at this point in his career.
  11. stringer bell
    Yup, that is Martin. Flexible in what positions he can play and also able to be optioned. I know that is not what you are saying, but it fits for me too. I don't want to see whoever they might sign (Pham, Duvall, Taylor) Santana or Farmer hitting for Wallner or Julien (as the DH) or Kirilloff in the fourth inning. It is just too easy to do and the guys with their future in front of them have their progress stunted. The 26th guy would be slated to start against lefties and that only guarantees about 40 starts a year. I think one of Miranda, Martin or Larnach can do better, although Miranda really doesn't have a position with the roster as it stands right now.
  12. stringer bell
    In other threads, I have made the case for Austin Martin as the 26th guy. He runs well, is reputed to be a good outfielder (center field capable) and is versatile. Martin is projected to be someone that makes contact and gets on base, two things the 2023 Twins lacked. IMHO, Martin is the best fit for the vacancy at this time. I think this position battle is really a free-for-all where Spring Training actually matters. If any of Miranda, Larnach or Martin look really good and substantially better than the other two, I think they get the job to open the season. Maybe one of the other guys mentioned shows they belong. It's a little tougher when you're not on the 40-man roster, however. Also, it figures that all three of the guys mentioned will get their chance sometime this year. The season may be the last chance for Miranda and Larnach to establish themselves as big leaguers (Kirilloff too), but whether they make the club out of Spring Training is not the end.
  13. stringer bell
    Santana had a .727 OPS against right handed pitching. I believe that is pretty close to league average. Kirilloff was better, obviously, but I doubt we'll see AK pinch hitting for Santana much.
  14. stringer bell
    Either Larnach or Santana. Also possible: Willi Castro in the lineup somewhere and a presumed regular as the DH, for example Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton. Kepler.
  15. stringer bell
    I know a lot of people don't like to use Pythagorean W-L when looking at a season, but the game is about runs scoring on offense and run suppression when on defense. The Twins scored 119 more runs than their opponents and according to Pythag should have won 93 games last year. With some regression to the mean, the Twins can be equally "good" and win more games this year and slip a bit and still come up with a better record. The Twins did well in extra-inning games, but were substandard in one and two run games, yielding only 87 wins last year. I expect better fortune this year, with an improved bullpen and more veteran players. Do I want to see another 30-something guy brought in to be a platoon outfielder and Buxton insurance? No, particularly if he takes away at-bats from Matt Wallner. I would be okay with bringing in a guy who plays DH versus right handed pitching and puts on a glove to give Kepler or Wallner a day off pretty often against left handed pitching. Would any of the veterans in question be accepting of being a platoon player on the short side of the platoon? I already see the veteran Santana squeezing Kirilloff out of at-bats, I don't want to see it with Wallner as well. The best move the Twins made at the trade deadline in 2023 was no move. Perhaps the same can happen now, leaving a spot for someone to win among the position players. The obvious candidates would be Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda and Austin Martin.
  16. stringer bell
    At one point this off season, the Twins had only two pitchers over 30. Now they have seven. They have subtracted Polanco, but added Santana, who is more than seven years older. The Twins have a lot of talent still on the upswing, but have added a lot of older players lately. It appears to be a pretty good mix for 2024.
  17. stringer bell
    They essentially played last season without him, so a ways down.
  18. stringer bell
    Having López start every fifth game is crucial to the Twins. I have him as the most vital player on the team followed by Durán and Lewis.
  19. stringer bell
    Who did this report? Santana’s agent? I’m mildly in favor of bringing Carlos Santana to the Twins, but this preview made it sound like the Twins landed vintage Eddie Murray, but with Mark Grace’s defense (also vintage).
  20. stringer bell
    Boras is very good at his job. He gets to represent premier free agents because he gets them the best contracts. If we are pointing fingers about who ruined baseball (if it is really ruined), we have to look at ownership.
  21. stringer bell
    Of the three FAs being discussed here, Montgomery is by far the most consistent. If the Twins somehow see fit to add a big ticket guy, he is who I would want them to sign. Bellinger was DFA'd a couple years ago and Snell has been hugely inconsistent. For the kind of money, those guys are seeking, no thanks.
  22. stringer bell
    I've said for a while that if they bring in a position player, he has to be a starter, getting over 500 at-bats if healthy all year. If they are bringing in a platoon left fielder or Buxton backup neither is a full-time role. Maybe bringing back MAT might be okay because he'd combine those two roles and depending on Buxton's health, might get as much run as he had last year. I don't get too worked up on how a player is productive--with Taylor it was defense and power plus base running--but the needs of this team going forward would include making contact and getting on base and Taylor was poor at those things last year.
  23. stringer bell
    I think Johan will be the next Twin in the Hall of Fame. I consider him more deserving than Morris or Kaat. It is hard to measure guys from different eras, but he was dominant in his era.
  24. stringer bell
    In earlier GATG installments, the guys have said they've been told that the formula is basically 50% of revenue is dedicated to salary. For good reason, the club doesn't disclose all the details of their finances. From what we know, the loss of BAM ($30M) and the reduction of local TV revenue (plus or minus $10M) is $40M or so and the payroll is reduced by more than $30M. The Twins have chosen to explain the reduction in salary as a function of uncertainty and now reduction in local TV revenue. I guess if the BAM money is such a big factor and the Twins want people to understand that, they should point it out.
  25. stringer bell
    I do agree that it is unlikely that there would be acceptance of down years as part of the cycle. However, I think that now really isn’t a good time to cut payroll. If the Twins win the Central, a segment of the fan base will be satisfied, if the reach the ALDS or ALCS, a greater amount will be satisfied. More success yields more interest and all that goes with it. Having more payroll and using it to enhance the roster could help to achieve post season success.
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