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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Polanco has a long enough career that his career stats are more telling than platoon splits in 2023 (half a season) IMHO. In his career, Polanco is a far better left handed hitter. Farmer, last year and in his career, has been a far better hitter versus lefties. If I were to bet, I would bet that Farmer has better numbers versus lefties in 2024. It is interesting how much or how little certain teams face left handers and left handed pitching in general. Atlanta faced less than 20% left handed starters (32 of 162). Cleveland faced almost twice as many left handed starters (59 of 162) despite having the Twins in their division, with their rotation of five right handed starters.
  2. stringer bell
    There's always the Injured List, I sure Santana could have a turned ankle or infected toe. IMHO, whoever the Twins would acquire should be a regular (130 games or more), not just a platoon bat. If the guy isn't good enough to be that, go with the guys in the organization.
  3. stringer bell
    You took the words out of my mouth until the part of your post that I quoted. What good does it do for the Twins to reveal more to the public about "the state of Twins nation"? Will it sell more tickets? Allow the clubs to get a better TV deal or acquire better players? Yes, I'd like to know more, to be an insider on future moves, but IMHO it doesn't serve the team to publicize what they might do, hence they do not reveal these things.
  4. stringer bell
    No TV deal as of today, right? I think the Twins are keeping their chips tight until they have some idea of how much to spend. They appeared to be comfortable with $120-125M, which is where they were before dealing Chulo. From what I can see, they only want to spend the $5M they netted in the Polanco deal. That doesn't make for much high impact--Solanco, maybe or someone like Duvall or (mentioned elsewhere) Carlos Santana. I think the Twins should get a good enough hitter that the guy is a starter, not a platoon piece, or not even go there. As far as a playoff starting pitcher, I don't see them competing to get Cease, Burnes or any other top starter, certainly without a TV deal. Maybe they can find an undervalued asset from a bad team or someone coming off an injury, but not someone who was healthy and productive last year. Polanco netted a good prospect (I know TINSTAAP), a reliever coming off a really good season, but with a questionable health history and a perhaps serviceable starter. Kepler, with a year less of control, would net less IMHO. I don't see the Twins as having the pieces to acquire a top starter at this time. I don't like it, but that's what I see.
  5. stringer bell
    Santana is a switch hitter and good defender at first base. That works for the Twins. He would be amenable to a one-year deal, I'm sure, since he turns 38 on the next solar eclipse. He hits lefties quite well, both last year and through his career and he's a very selective hitter. The only part that doesn't fit is that he isn't an outfielder. With Kepler and Wallner as the regular corner outfielders, it would be ideal to have a fourth OF who hits lefties well.
  6. stringer bell
    I haven't seen Lee for more than a few minutes live, but I've seen the Twins sing his praises. Maybe not in April, but some time this year, I fully expect Lee to make his MLB debut. As for Martin, I expect him to debut sometime this year. I had him as a dark horse candidate to make the Opening Day roster. He has enough versatility to get pretty consistent at-bats if up for the ten days or more to replace a utility guy. Again, he might need a month or more in St. Paul.
  7. stringer bell
    If Correa is hurt enough to go on the IL, I think Brooks Lee is the shortstop. A Farmer injury requiring the IL would likely give us Austin Martin or maybe someone like Helman. To the larger question of freeing Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff, I hope they are given more at-bats versus southpaws and the composition of the bench may well determine that. Max Kepler had about 100 plate appearances versus left handers, I think that is the right amount of protection and rest for someone with pretty severe career platoon splits. I would hope that all three young lefty hitting guys get that much opportunity, but it will be up to them to perform better than they did in limited chances last year.
  8. stringer bell
    DeSclafani compares very much with Maeda going into 2023--veteran arm coming off surgery in his mid-thirties with a history of being really good. If the Twins get results similar to Maeda's 2023 for the $4M they have invested in him, I think they'll take it. I just don't think it is in the cards to get a #1 or #2 starter for what the Twins had to offer. Polanco and Kepler are quality veteran players with affordable contracts, that doesn't match up with top pitchers making more than twice as much. Trading Lee, Rodriguez or Jenkins should be off the table unless the Twins would be getting years of affordable team control on a #1 or #2 starter. I don't think Seattle was going to do that and Miami is asking for a franchise changing haul for Luzardo (IMHO). Everybody else wants to add.
  9. stringer bell
    Yes, I made the mistake of quoting BBRef before the updated the story. We’ve settled on $8M from Seattle to make DeSclafani very affordable and net the Twins about $5M.
  10. stringer bell
    fani
  11. stringer bell
    As to the Varland/DeSclafani question, much like Maeda/Ober, I think the veteran is more likely to grant the rotation spot. I do think there’s a decent chance that Varland will be in a multi-innings role with the Twins, especially since both Paddack and DeSclafani could be innings limited.
  12. stringer bell
    There is a chance that DeSclafani is being underrated here. To start the 2023 season, he was very effective through early May. Was the decline injury-related? We can assume that he is reporting to be fully healthy, but health has to be a big question mark with him. It is also unclear if his stuff is as good as it was in 2021 as he’ll be 34 all season, but if he’s healthy I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. Finally, his home park in SF was one of the best parks for pitchers in the NL. More on DeSclafani: He has a lifetime ERA+ of 101, with three seasons where he was significantly better (2016, 2019 and 2021). His lifetime ERA and FIP line up. To me, that profiles as middle-of-the-rotation starter. The last two years cast doubt that he’ll be that good. The contract he signed after 2021 also was for better than “innings eater”.
  13. stringer bell
    Oops! I believe BBRef has changed content in their trade story again. It now says the Mariners are sending $2M plus the $6M that SF is paying for DeSclafani. So this edition says the Twins are netting $5.25M, putting payroll around $120M. Perhaps another $5M will be spent by the Twins, so we can lower our sights on any free agents.
  14. stringer bell
    I count Louie as no worse than #6 and perhaps at #5. I think it’s still a real long shot for Lee to break camp with the Twins. Nick Gordon would now seem to have a much better chance of staying with the Twins.
  15. stringer bell
    You are saying it, but I can’t agree. Larnach is not going to move the needle much nor is Severino. Polanco, Kepler, Lewis, Lee, Julien and maybe Kirilloff are the names that could pry a quality, cost-controlled starter from the Mariners. And the Twins would have to add a pitcher to that.
  16. stringer bell
    The story is that the Twins will spend their savings on a player or players, perhaps free agents. Before any further acquisitions, the position player side has changed dramatically. If Buxton can play center field most of the time, the DH slot can rotate. With Castro, Gordon and Farmer inserted in the field and all of Lewis, Correa, Julien and Kirilloff can DH. Adding a credible right handed bat can mean an enhanced attack against left handers.
  17. stringer bell
    Yeah, from the original story, it appeared the Twins would actually be paying more in salary for the two major leaguers. Now, it looks like they will pay little or none of DeSclafani's salary and are about $10M on the plus side. So, if the Twins add a $10M hitter, they are getting that player plus Topa, plus DeSclafani plus a legit prospect and a lottery ticket for Polanco. Sure, it all could blow up, but I'm pretty happy with the whole thing.
  18. stringer bell
    According to BB Ref, DeSclafani's salary will not cost the Twins much at all. San Francisco is paying half and the Mariners are paying $6M, meaning the Twins will pay no more than $2M. That does mean the Twins will have some money to spend. It also means that the Twins don't have significant money invested in DeSclafani, so if he's another Bundy, they would be less prone to hang on to him.
  19. stringer bell
    DeSclafani hasn't been healthy for the last two years. He was very good in 2021. Can he be both healthy and effective in 2024 at 34 years of age? I think there's a greater than zero chance that he can be effective. I looked at his game log and he pitched very well until sometime in May. Injury? Maybe. I would also note that AD (tired of typing that long name!) was much better in the friendly confines of Oracle Park. We fans want to win every trade, meaning only elite major leaguers and top prospects. I don't know who will win this trade, but it will most likely be decided by the health of the major leaguers.
  20. stringer bell
    I didn't want to like this post, but that is exactly where I've been for weeks--the teams willing to trade good controllable starting pitching are not going to take on the salary of Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler. Teams that want Polanco or Kepler might be willing to give back prospects, but they aren't going to part with a #1-#3 starter who is controllable.
  21. stringer bell
    It's not "just like Arraez for Lopez" because the starting pitching piece acquired isn't a top of the line pitcher. Of course, Polanco isn't Arraez either. The Mariners get two years of a very good player. The Twins get one year of a dreaded innings eater if he's healthy. The other guys acquired are interesting--Topa had a very nice season and it looks like he's quite a ground ball machine, Gonzalez looks like a nice prospect.
  22. stringer bell
    I hope the Twins keep DeSclafani long enough that I can spell his name. That didn't happen with IKF.
  23. stringer bell
    Topa has a nice season last year, but he's 33 in March. First year arb eligible.
  24. stringer bell
    No salary freed up--DeSclafani is making more than Polanco. Cash returned might make save the Twins some $$$. Do we know how much money is involved?
  25. stringer bell
    Well, we knew there would be some movement before the start of the season. Polanco is a solid professional and he'll help Seattle. I hope DeSclafani can give them a decent season. I know nothing about the minor leaguers, but this is about what I expected.
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