ashbury

I'm in Scottsdale for 3 days in the late-autumn sun. Well, no sun tonight, but it was a nice evening for a ballgame despite a sparse crowd of under a thousand, with the always convivial baseball fan Mrs Ash attending with me at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick tonight, where we witnessed the Rafters at home defeat "our" Scottsdale Scorpions 3-2. Two Twins prospects were in the starting lineup, Andrew Bechtold playing third base and Michael Helman in left field. Bechtold showed a willingness to take rather close pitches even with two strikes, walking 3 times but striking out twice, once looking at the third strike - I would have liked to see him put the ball in play a time or three, although his selectivity shows up in his regular season stats in the Twins organization, so it's a part of his game. Helman put the ball in play three times out of four (striking out on a checked swing his last time up), but a couple of popups on either side of the infield plus a fly to center didn't add up to anything but an 0-for-4. On the defensive side, Helman wasn't particularly tested but did convert the one fly ball hit his way into an out, while Bechtold made a couple of 5-3 putouts including a very nice throw on a tough chance. Here's a photo of Helman, I believe, at the plate. One Twins prospect, Cody Laweryson, got a chance to pitch in the sixth inning. His 87-MPH fastball didn't excite me much, and I guess his 78-MPH offering was a curveball. He pitched what should have been a clean inning with one strikeout, but an error by Red Sox SS prospect Christian Koss (his second of the game) put the leadoff batter on base and a stolen base made it more interesting. But with two out and the runner on third, Laweryson acquitted himself very well by hustling over to first base for a 3-1 putout against a speedy batter, Brewers outfield prospect Joey Wiemer. Speaking of shortstops, Rockies prospect Ezequiel Tovar showed me everything you could want from that position on a play leading off the ninth, by ranging deep to his right and then firing a laser to nip the batter (the aforementioned Koss, as it happens) at first base. Tovar also hit the 3-run homer that provided Salt River all their runs in the winning effort. Not bad from the #8 spot in the batting order. He just turned 20 and was promoted to high-A during the season. Maybe the Rockies would like to throw him into a trade? Does anyone reading this have a problem with someone named Tovar playing some SS for our Twins?

Pineda is an easy yes for me. He's actually good. Health issues, sure, but Rodriguez scares me more.

I was in attendance for the only 2 innings Eddie ever played third base in the majors, so I totally feel qualified to say the Twins missed a trick by signing that stiff Josh Donaldson* and not keeping Eddie. Good for Eddie, this past month or two. He's a major leaguer, and capable of this kind of heroics. * Different off-seasons, I realize

"Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Fords." -- Fritz Ostermueller (regarding Ralph Kiner)

That's what scouts mean, when they term a defender "adequate."

Successful teams don't list their good players and then try to determine which has the most trade value. They keep their good players. If we're rebuilding, the clearest signal the FO could send of that is by trading Polanco.

If his finger is going to heal then it's a no brainer to retain his services - the CBA assures that anyone under team control is a relative bargain. If he's never going to be the same due to the finger, then it's a no brainer to release him - $7M can be deployed to some better use. If his prognosis is 50/50, then you have to flip a coin. It all comes down to the medical staff's forecasting ability - I have no such insight so I have no independent opinion.

I liked seeing Broxton jump for joy on the catch in that video against de la Guerra. Considering that Celestino stood to prevent Broxton from getting a call to the majors if he did well, that shows real class.

What's the scouting report on Kala'i's defense? Does he have any speed?

1995 Peoria LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Lawton, Dan Naulty, Jamie Ogden, Kevin Ohme, Mitch Simons, Todd Walker 1996 Scottsdale Jason Bell, JJ Johnson, Jamie Ogden, Mark Redman, Todd Ritchie, Dan Serafini We of course have the benefit of hindsight, a different kind of bias, as to how these careers turned out, knowing that the late 90s were a dreary time for the franchise. Certainly many players sent to the AFL, in general, do not progress, for any number of reasons - that's also a red herring. But at the time, most of the players in those two years looked like real prospects - worth a fan's trip to the Phoenix area for a look-see. E.g. the now-forgotten Jason Bell was a 21-year old who had had success at high-A and was so-so when promoted to AA but with good strikeout numbers for the time. And the unlamented 1996 group as a whole had 3 pitchers who went on to have more than just a cuppajoe in the majors. (I won't bother to defend the FO's two-year fascination with first baseman Ogden.) Does anyone besides Wallner in this year's group, old other than Laweryson and not with much of a track record, look like they have a prayer of that? Digging up the names for these two seasons in the AFL was tedious. I'll pass the baton back to you, if you want to dig out a team with less-compelling prospects than these or, back to the point, less interesting than the crew being sent to Scottsdale for 2021. Nonetheless, I'm going, later this month.

Royce Lewis contributing anything to the big club before September seems beyond "plausible" and more into "so you're tellin' me there's a chance" territory.

I don't want to undersell Story as a hitter. He's not poor. His .200 road BA this year is IMO a fluke, and he hits for power. He's well above average as a hitter among his shortstop peers. But his road OPS has never been above .800, and after a while I have to accept that that's who he is - a very good hitter but not in a class with the elite. A very general comp from Twins history could be Greg Gagne - who was more than good enough in the field and had some underrated pop with the bat, and arguably was the glue that helped solidify those World Series teams, Kirby and Hrby notwithstanding. No chance Story goes for 2 years and $20M total. Even factoring out Coors helium, he's worth a whale of a lot more. I'd rank the choices offered in this article as Correa/Story/Seager/Baez, and give Semien no consideration at SS. But 20 other teams will be bidding too - it's always a sellers market and only 4 teams will come away with a prize, with a good chance that 2 of those end up with regrets relatively quickly.

Understanding what you mean by "decent SS" probably comes from knowing your reaction to hearing, "like, say, Jorge Polanco?"

Probably, but I'm not sure to his benefit. I like him but we should be prepared for a very good defensive SS who doesn't hit as well as Jorge Polanco, not "Coors Field Trevor Story". In addition, we'll have to "overpay" to outbid all the other suitors for any of the topnotch shortstops, but that overpay might be even a little steeper if any of the suitors think they are getting "Coors Field Trevor Story".

... and if by some miracle they are in contention in June or July, and the draftee is scuffling and seeming to hold them back, they can reverse course and offer him back to the original team. If they aren't contending, then they can put up with a lot less production from that one spot on the roster, if the talent seems there.

Hip hip!

And maybe deservedly. People were flinging facts back and forth, So I decided to toss in a fact that was semi-relevant but really not. All in a spirit of good fun and if someone felt like responding in kind I took it in the same spirit. I think long-time readers are fairly aware by now of my exasperation with 2021's outcome, and its portents for the future. And if not.... it's only a ballgame.

Unless the Twins sign someone for $30M+ a year for a large number of years, then that pitcher is almost by definition not an ace. Because even the top teams can always find a spot in their rotation for a guy of that caliber, and the ones with the deep pockets will not allow themselves to be outbid easily. There's no reason to even bring up that word when talking about the pitchers mentioned here.

49 errors!!!! That's terrible! With a glove like th- .... wait, across 4 years? 12 errors a year? For a shortstop? If SS errors are your thing, you won't enjoy a return of Polanco to the most visible defensive position - he made 18 and 22 errors in his two full-time stints at the position (and he committed 17 this season, mostly at 2B). Gordon was error prone in the minors and the team showed reluctance to even try him there this year. Arraez... no. Just no. We need range in a shortstop, and an arm. Simmons touched the ball over 500 times this season, as did every full-time shortstop in the majors - his rate of plays made per inning was second in the AL among full-timers (though in years past, he usually would be #1). The number of errors that get charged are a drop in the bucket to a shortstop's total picture, in part because the official scorers are directed not to call an error on every play-not-made for statistics-keeping purposes. I'm not going to defend Simmons. He was "only" 31 but played like an old 31. He has slipped defensively to only better than average, and his bat is impossible to support no matter how good the defense - no player can save enough runs to make up for the black hole he was in the lineup. He was below replacement-level and won't be missed IMO. But I like to make roster decisions based on the full resume a player brings, not the superficial aspects. Oh, and, Welcome To Twins Daily. I wound up doing a little deep-dive on one of the supporting points you made, but overall I like the ideas you raised in this article.

Twins had 8 more wins than any other last-place team in 2021. Fact.

I would add deception to the list of qualifications. The fastball has to look for all the world like it could be an off-speed pitch of some kind, until it is too late.

Or to make manifest just how far from genuine competitiveness they really are.

13. What a disappointing article! Each Friday I look forward to a bit of trenchant satire here, and I see now that with RandBalls Stu having been kidnapped and replaced by a swarm of drones it's going to be a long, long winter where I will have to fall back on the creaky old Onion for my LOLs.

Jake Cave IMO has zero to do with decisions the team makes about the glut of marginal pitchers needing attention on the 40-man.

Are you from The Future? Are you here to tell us this won't be his only one?