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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
  2. ashbury
    Leading with Chi Chi? Gold!
  3. ashbury
    It's a great start. Couldn't be happier at this turn of events. Now let's shore up catching and starting pitching a little better.
  4. ashbury
    Dunno, but maybe some practice at calling pitches, and framing, would help his own pitch recognition when at the plate.
  5. ashbury
  6. ashbury
  7. ashbury
    Spoiler alert: that other Godoy never shows up to spring training.
  8. ashbury
    Do the same analysis age-against-age between Rortvedt and Butera. Ben's not Drew. There's no guarantees in baseball, and certainly no guarantees regarding prospects. But the same kind of analysis allowed folks to identify Jorge Polanco as a player whose bat had a good chance of coming around, even though his numbers at AA weren't too good. I don't suspect Rortvedt develops into an All-Star. But we gave up someone of value when we traded him to the Yankees, and we replaced with with someone from the waiver wire. It's a downgrade.
  9. ashbury
    My apologies - I had you mixed up with someone else a day or two ago in a Gary Sanchez thread. Suffice to say, compare what Rortvedt did in his age 21 and age 23 seasons (Covid intervened) with what Godoy was doing at similar ages. Don't just look at raw OPS - consider the difference in league levels, assuming you agree that the competition level is higher at AA and AAA than at low-A and high-A respectively. Rortvedt is young, Godoy is not, and their resumes aren't really similar.
  10. ashbury
    I've given my analysis before, and you want to go with the above plus his age-23 MLB numbers in < 100 PA (hint, Godoy's 2021 cuppa coffee in Seattle was worse). At this point we're in Agree To Disagree territory, and watch young Ben with his progress (or lack of same) the next few seasons while he reaches the level of maturity that Godoy already has.
  11. ashbury
    Third-string catchers belong one phone call away at AAA, but Sanchez does seem to be a special case. In which case, we need catcher #4 waiting in the wings, and he needs to be MLB-caliber (well, AAAA like Godoy).
  12. ashbury
    Groovy. He'll be decent on defense, have less of an upside at bat than Rortvedt. We've downgraded our 3rd string catching slot.
  13. ashbury
    League-wide, they did VERY well. I think it came out almost exactly at .500, just as predicted.
  14. ashbury
    If you want to flush a prospect after <100 major league PA at age 23, I don't know what to say. 41 OPS+ isn't what Rortvedt "is". Elsewhere, a comp was made to Drew Butera. Rortvedt lost his age-22 season to Covid, but at age 21 he OPSed .687 at AA, while at the same age Butera managed .603 at low-A. At 23, Rortvedt did .750 at AAA, and Butera did .765 at high-A. Being 2 league levels higher at the same age, that is huge when comparing. Rortvedt's has been developing as a hitter, just fine. He won't win any batting titles, because catchers not named Mauer generally don't. But he's going to hit. Especially now that he's been traded, because, Twins, y'know. And people are going to be, all, "well, that came out of nowhere."
  15. ashbury
    I'm all for deep dives into analytics. But at the end of the day, we should not expect to get Coors Field Trevor Story with his .900 OPS if we sign him. Home/road splits for Rockies players do mean something. We'll get The Real Trevor Story, whatever that is. Unless his defensive skills erode, we'll have a well above average shortstop if he OPS's in the high .700s, and there's additional upside (if the detailed analytics are correct) that could mean he's a vital difference-maker for a team with World Series aspirations. That's enough to justify a low-nine-figures contract for four years.
  16. ashbury
    Sure! Now that the lockout is over, trades are possible again. If we can't pry any pitching from the Marlins, perhaps they'll give us Astudillo in return for one of our prospect arms.
  17. ashbury
    Save that thought for the Urshela puff piece, as well.
  18. ashbury
    Gotta sandwich in that he reported to camp in the best shape of his career.
  19. ashbury
    I keep checking MLBTR hourly, on the assumption that something big must be on the verge of happening. After acquiring Gray and then the drama of the Donaldson trade, it feels like having bought a new set of performance tires and then taking the car in for a tune up, only to learn now that the engine is sitting on a hoist and the mechanic is telling you they are "waiting on parts". Why did you shell out for those expensive tires, again? Sign Story, and/or swing a favorable trade that is possible only by taking on new salary, and my outlook for the team brightens.
  20. ashbury
    There are 24 pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster. Even if a couple will soon be on the 60-day IL, there isn't room for adding a retread. Not that the roster is stuffed to the gills with all-stars, but I'd rather drop one of the incumbents because we acquired someone actually, you know, good, and with upside. Not just a hurler that will help you limp through 2022.
  21. ashbury
    "Only two things will keep that kid from the Hall of Fame. A knife, and a fork."
  22. ashbury
    I'd personally pump the brakes a bit on such a dire outlook. No reliever, not even a closer, is worth more than a couple of wins, compared to the guy who they'd have to plug in as replacement. They'd likely need to go out and acquire someone else - but relievers can be had for a decent prospect, no more.
  23. ashbury
    If the team doesn’t make other moves, I predict some here (including myself) are going to lose their ****.
  24. ashbury
    Palacios was the only name on this list that would have intrigued me (Austin Martin seems like a courtesy invite to me, as far as Opening Day planning is concerned). Of course, just like Charlie Brown with Lucy's football, I'm totally absorbed now by the rumors surrounding Trevor Story, so even that interest suddenly becomes muted.
  25. ashbury
    Concur. Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sanchez? I would not. Would you trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Gio Urshela? I would not. The only missing piece to the trade is Donaldson. Those who pooh-poohed the notion that he had negative trade value around the entire major leagues are left with defending that our front office must be the stupidest people on the planet, to pull the trigger on the above pair of bad one-for-one trades and then throw in Josh Donaldson for free simply as a sweetener. Josh Donaldson is a valuable player when healthy. But the health risks plus his salary make him a large-market gamble now. The FO has opted to redeploy Donaldson's salary. Half of it goes for Sonny Gray. We'll see what they do with the rest of it (plus of course the considerable budget headroom they already possessed).
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