ashbury

First, thanks for understanding that my "No" answer to an "or" question was part of the social fabric here. And you deserve a more serious answer than that. Next, I have literally zero interest in Happ or Shoemaker or Gant. Zero. There was a reason Happ signed for the low, low bargain prices of $8M - no team with pennant aspirations bid up his price- and the other two are even less valuable assets. I want to see our vaunted pipeline of pitching prospects come through. You pretty much anticipated the things I would have said - "not ready yet," the risk of harming development if a push to the majors proved premature. If force-feeding the best prospects is a good idea, then why doesn't every first-round draft pick start at AAA and stay there until his numbers demonstrate he should be called up? (Unless you're the Orioles or Pirates, in which case just let them start in the majors since you're not worried about pennant chances.) Where we mainly disagree is your apparent view that bringing up young players is all a crapshoot with no possible guidance as to who is ready and who is not. But they keep stats on minor league games, and while those games aren't of the same quality as in the majors, they are played against opponents who also are trying, and thus you can gain some notion of success. When Joe Ryan got the call to the majors, he had put together a partial season at AAA with an OPS-against of .559 in 66 innings. It's fair to ask what more he could be asked to demonstrate - he was 25 years old to boot, so bring him up, let's have a look. Ditto for Bailey Ober to a lesser degree - an OPS-against in the low .600s at AAA in only 4 games, and he was about to turn 26 years old, so he was about as ready as he'll ever be, probably - give him a shot. It worked out well for both. But neither was on an opening-day big league roster. The situation for the 3 prospects you named is not hopeless, but not the same as those two. Duran is the one I'd be most willing to try. In 2021 his OPS-against at AAA was .742. That's not terrible, but it also doesn't suggest dominance. I use a very rough rule of thumb of .100 points in OPS for each level of promotion (AAA to majors, AA to AAA), and if he had been brought up and pitched to a .842 OPS-against, that might have turned into an ERA in the high 5s. That's not going to draw fans back for second and third looks as the season wears on. I'd like him to pitch some more at AAA and get those numbers even lower. Balazovic and SWR pitched at AA last year, and had .698 and .737 for OPS-against. Not terrible, but not dominant, and at a level of competition one notch lower than for the other player comps. Tack on .200 instead of .100 for jumping 2 levels to the majors, and again we are looking at ERAs that could run in the 6s or worse. One of Bill James's seminal contribution to baseball analytics was to demonstrate that minor league numbers could indeed translate to major league equivalency - individual players will always vary but the overall numbers were pretty coherent. I'm hoping each of these guys tears it up in AAA, and earns a promotion to see whether the skills will play at the major league level. But, when you ask me whether I want the major league retreads you named, on opening day,, or three of these rookies, I ask, isn't there some third and better option? Thus my answer of 'no' was only partly tongue in cheek.

No.

I have so much trouble embracing this. All last season we were assured that a perfect storm of bad luck and injuries had occurred, to torpedo the season for a team expected to contend for the AL Central crown, if not outright favored. Now we are asked to accept that not only was last season not a fluke, but a rebuild is called for and 2022 should be completely punted. We are burning prime years of an offense that we were assured was capable of leading to a World Series - apparently those bats are not valued as much as we were told. We suffered through nearly a decade of irrelevance, for the benefit of a window that turned out to be only 2 years? I've rooted for the team through thick and thin, since moving to the area in 1978 and even after moving away in 1996. But this kind of cynical ratio is the sort of thing that could kill my interest at last, if you are indeed channeling our FO's thinking. "Pie in the sky, by and by."

Nice recap. Thanks.

Very enjoyable take!

Turning SS from an offensive liability to an offensive asset, by signing Carlos Correa, would be going all-in. I'm not prepared to use that term on a good but no longer elite corner bat.

Exactly. The off-season isn't over, but the Twins saw the lockout staring them in the face, and they so far have spent like they're Pittsburgh. Someday MLB will create a trophy for the most wins per dollar, or the best performance by a mid-tier market. Until then, we go for the Commissioner's Trophy as World Series champ, and nothing less.

Q How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg? A: Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg. Terry Ryan never called his 2013 rebuild a rebuild either. Didn't change the situation. You could tell what it was by the moves - the Clete Thomas Era said it all. I'd be more enamored of the vaunted pitching pipeline that is supposed to be our salvation, if the national prospect rankers out there had our guys higher on their lists. They don't have their knives out for our Twins, and they see both teams when they scout one of our guys - what they seem to be saying is, yeah, maybe, on most of our arms. And our list of guys contains a lot of 24-25 year olds who still are only knocking at the door. Our guys look like they could pitch in the majors, but maybe not stand out. We need to hit big, on more than just a couple, if this strategy is going to pan out. If not, where are our championships actually going to come from?

Best statement of the dilemma I've seen in a while.

Who do you propose hires this person?

Wait... unless... we got this guy: In that case, I am intrigued by the outside-the-box thinking.

Chances are this is a faulty assumption. Revenue isn't simply a switch you flip to 'On'.

"Acquire Jake Cave's backup." Another checklist item marked Complete.

Six years is not concerning to me. He still hasn't reached his 23rd birthday. If you ever run a team, I suggest not signing* 16 year olds from the Dominican Republic, unless you are sure they will be future Hall of Famers who will reach the majors at age 21 or 22 hitting like a veteran. * Okay, "trading for."

Saved the best for last in this list! As Casey Stengel or Yogi Berra or Mark Twain said, you can sum up baseball in one word: "you never know".

Just pushing back a little on that line of thinking. Might have been a little too mocking in the pursuit of humor.

The most recent successful World Series run the Twins had, Greg Gagne was our SS. Let's bring him back.

Grade: D. Buxton contract being the only positive to bring it up from an F.. They are apparently "betting on themselves" in the sense of relying on a pipeline of pitching prospects, but one that can't seem to stay healthy for even a minor league season.

I seem to remember Donaldson injuring himself more on the basepaths than playing defense but that may be selective based on Opening Day.

Carefully. Very, exceedingly, carefully.

That Ayala/Conger video is great! NOW I know how to be a big league catcher!

The problem is our organization can't seem to keep the young cinnamon rolls from getting injured.

Good one, mate.

I am content with the 40-man catching situation, with two young'uns still having minor league options so that you can stash a (hopefully) good replacement at AAA in case of injury, and/or go with the hot bat between those two at any given moment in the long season. Barring major injury, we're set for 2022-23. I like having an unfair advantage over the opposing team at as many spots in the lineup as possible, and I think there's a good argument that we have that at catcher - particularly on days when the other team plays their backup. Someone would have to knock me over with blue chip starting pitching, to interest me in a trade. The FO needs to continue seeding higher-end catching prospects at the lower levels of the farm system. The 40-man is good but we're thin at the higher minor league levels - neither Hamilton nor Banuelos inspires me - and it's best to build from within. Two years of potential stability on the big club should not be wasted. Cardenas and Winkel are potentially a good start. I wanna see two more.