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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    The simple answer to the headline question is yes, he plausibly could, as opposed to the 0.0000001% chance that you might assign all but a handful of players. Likely? No. But Trout's over 30 and you have to factor in the chance that his decline phase has begun, while Buxton is more than 2 years younger. Someone will pass Trout for the current honor, someday, and if it's soon, Buxton has the chops to be the one, if he stays injury free and also demonstrates he's actually reached a new level of sustainable performance. A 1% chance is certainly a lot more plausible than 0.0000001%. If the question were rephrased or reinterpreted to mean can Buxton reach Trout's extended peak for multiple seasons, I'm back to the 0.0000001% range of confidence. That ship has sailed.
  2. ashbury
    Many times I am annoyed by what I see as paths of least resistance (loading up on corner bats, accepting two lesser players in trade for one, giving up up-the-middle talent too easily), historically in this franchise and not simply most recently. But for asset stewardship at this time of the year, I agree 100% with Seth above, that going with whomever is on the 40-man now should take precedence unless a non-roster candidate is super compelling. That same candidate will be available to add, the first time a 60-day IL move has to be made, for example.
  3. ashbury
    Archer's just here to mentor Dylan Bundy, who will succeed because we need him to.
  4. ashbury
    Fair enough. And I hope that's how it plays out. (His splits last year would bear that out.) I guess I was just figuring that his initial usage pattern might tend toward the LOOGYish, as they break a young pitcher into the majors. But with only 3 lefties on the entire 40-man, LOOGY might be too much of a luxury and they'll just go ahead and see what he's got.
  5. ashbury
    But you did close an argument in this thread with "The Twins' front office can only make attempts." Unless... you draw a distinction between "attempt" and "try".
  6. ashbury
    Before reading the article but just viewing the headline, I was going to say B+ also, or maybe just B. Had they not signed Correa (and all the machinations that led to that), it would be C- territory or worse due to inaction with the pitching staff, and with the creative Correa signing it remains the uncertain pitching that keeps the grade below A. In a few months, that grade could be re-evaluated upward or downward (which is true of any off-season, but I think more so this year than most), because several of the moves have good upside if everything works out but significant downside if one bad outcome leads to another and another and a 2021-style avalanche occurs. The FO is gambling heavily on rookies, particularly among the pitchers, producing right out of the chute. Hope they're right. If so, then the gambles on old retread arms won't matter too greatly, and if those work out too, it could be a fun season. That's an adjective I wasn't prepared to use a month ago.
  7. ashbury
    The Twins 40-man is thin in the lefty department, so I see Moran making the team, but not among the top arms in this pecking order. More a LOOGY, modified by the rule on minimum batters faced. Which is also kind of Thielbar's role (though he's reasonably effective against righties too), so watch out for opponents stacking their batting orders with left-handed hitters.
  8. ashbury
    If Jake Cave or Kyle Garlick is an answer, I refuse to consider the question. Aside from that, here's hoping that Max breaks through to the next level. It's not too late for a career year!
  9. ashbury
  10. ashbury
    AAA would be a splendid, splendid place for the poor fellow to recuperate and make sure there are no lingering effects.
  11. ashbury
    I was just thinking that 3 catchers is a reasonable luxury for a 28 man squad but not for 26. But, when you get down to the nuts and bolts, it's not even as simple as that. Part of my dilemma is not viewing Sanchez as a catcher.
  12. ashbury
    Ugh. Wrong era of the Doobs' repertoire. Tom Johnston, Patrick Simmons, or GTFO.
  13. ashbury
    I don't want a stud at catcher. Oh, sure, I'd take one if he dropped into our laps. But at the expense of passing up a stud at a different position? Nope. Joe Mauer cured me of that. And I think Joe's a Hall of Famer. But a catcher doesn't play enough games compared to other position players, and nobody has the impact on a given game that a pitcher does. Moreover, if your catcher is really that much of a stud, then you will want him as DH on the days you rest his legs, and that puts pressure on your roster. A stud at catcher is a rich team's luxury, in the sense that they probably also can afford a stud DH, meaning that you pay the stud catcher the big bucks to sit, on his days off, like any normal catcher should. I like catchers taken in the 2nd round, don't get me wrong. Rortvedt was an ideal bet.
  14. ashbury
    When's the last time in your estimation we had one of those?
  15. ashbury
    I want Larnach to prove something for a month at AAA. So I'm very much OK with his demotion. Rooker is the easiest final cut for me, again with a challenge to prove something at AAA (either that he's elite and not just passable at bat and can be a DH, or else that he's learned to play a position, any position). Two pitchers, that would be Moran and then, um, I dunno, maybe Stashak. Looking ahead to when it's time to cut down 2 further in May, Godoy looks like one - 12 position players is pretty thin but we have a lot of positional flexibility. One more pitcher, but chances are that in a month's time that decision will make itself, likewise for position players actually, now that I think of it.
  16. ashbury
    Communication is easier than ever now. Build a good relationship in person during several weeks in the Spring, and you can stay in touch by text or Zoom or whatnot and have it be nearly the same for several months, to a degree that wouldn't be nearly as beneficial without those first weeks.
  17. ashbury
    Yeah, in 14 plate appearances he's struck out 5 times, walked twice, had a sac bunt, and a sac fly. So in the 5 remaining chances, where it seems he put the ball in play normally, it fell in safely for a base hit. Yeah, that rate of .800 is sustainable, to support his .333 BA.
  18. ashbury
    Yay! We have someone who can make major-league plays at SS!
  19. ashbury
    Scouts have this slick trick called "looking at the family tree". Nick's father Tom Gordon at five-nine and 160 pounds could have been a slight tipoff versus whatever the scouts noticed in Sanó's bloodlines that led to reports I recall stipulating "assuming he doesn't grow out of the position."
  20. ashbury
    Like, because it's impossible to post in blue or some other color, or in a different font, already?
  21. ashbury
    I share your general lack of enthusiasm about the role of the #5 starter. It's a role that lacks a consistent usage pattern, and generally is occupied by one of three types: 1) rookie trying to establish himself, 2) veteran looking to re-establish something or else disappear from the majors, 3) Andrew Albers on yet another emergency start. For practical purposes, in my world there is no such thing as a #5 starter, merely pitchers on their way up or on their way down. I suppose the rare exception would be a contending team so deep in starters that they say "nah, we're good" to any thought of improving the rotation.. When I see someone's attempt at a prospect scouting report that says "ceiling is #5 starter," I think to myself either this player is not really a starting pitching prospect or else this writer is not really a scout. . The team should be trying to acquire talent, period.
  22. ashbury
    No. He was only just added to the 40-man. He should have all 3 minor league options remaining. You might be thinking of the decision last fall to add him to the 40-man, which was necessary to avoid the risk of losing him in the Rule-5 draft (that never took place due to the lockout).
  23. ashbury
    I'd like to see Larnach get some time at AAA to work on regaining his power stroke, and I think Celestino is far enough along to provide more overall value to the big club. Otherwise I have no modifications to the positions players - Gordon won't provide much value but the 40-man is so lean on position players that there isn't someone else I put in his place and his lack of minor league options becomes the deciding factor. (If I could send him down, going with a 12-man position player roster wouldn't be overly risky.) Pitching, wow, with 23 guys on the 40-man, picking 8 to drop to AAA is kind of a crapshoot. I can't see raising that number to 9, so a non-roster invitee is not making the team. Fortunately only 7 pitchers of these 23 lack minor league options or otherwise can't be sent down, unless I miscounted - I had thought there were more forced choices than that, so kudos to the FO for turning over the roster in a way that provides flexibility. Cotton, among your bullpen "guesses", lacks minor league options so I see him as more of a sure thing. I don't feel strongly enough about anyone else to change your list.
  24. ashbury
    Just to be clear, the Twins didn't release him. The roster moves they made (waivers and designation for assignment) meant they hoped to keep him, just not on their 40-man roster. The Red Sox didn't go along with that plan.
  25. ashbury
    Human resources generalist for Best Buy, huh? Don't forget to turn off the lights after you lay off your last employee, Josh.
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