ashbury

The comparison offered between Arraez and Solano would embarrass both ballplayers if they were made aware.

Anthony Slama turned 39 last month.

I wonder if it's got so much movement that batters will be more able to recognize the pitch and lay off it?

Jason Tyner being unavailable, you do what you can.

The existence of this article shows that the Yankees are getting free rent in our heads.

Long shot (which maybe you factor in, with your word "could"). He just turned 29, and using WAR again as the quick-and-dirty measure he is behind all 4 of the incumbents through age-28 seasons. I'll always root for him, but he's lost a ton of time for this kind of all-time thinking.

The panel would also have accepted "Brylcreem."

Not really encouraging. b-r.com (first Google hit I found) explains WARP as having a baseline of about 25 wins if a team was composed of all 0-WARP players, i.e. replacement level. You need about 50-60 WARP, team wide, to achieve a .500 record. Given the WARP projections for the batters and now the pitchers, this isn't a sunny forecast. Very odd given the favorable ERAs - it doesn't "add up," at all.

I basically agree. The problem with a 6-man rotation to start the season is that it's predicated on the idea that nobody's really ready and you need to ease them all into the season. But that means 4- or 5-inning starts for a week or two, and that in turn means you need to rely more on your bullpen and not less, and that in turn means you'd rather not have to operate with a 7-man bullpen when you could have 8. Plus why would the 7 relievers be in mid-season form already and geared up to pitching on consecutive days when needed at times? Now, if your 6-man rotation allows them to roar out of the gate throwing 6 or 7 innings apiece, it'd be a different story. Here's a crazier idea? Ober's your Game 2 starter in Kansas City, after the day off following Opening Day (let's say that is Sonny Gray). Let Ober do his 4 or 5 innings, then send him down to St Paul and bring up that 8th bullpen arm ASAP. You go through the rest of the rotation against the Royals and then Marlins, and our graybeard Gray can now do the Home Opener too, having had a full week's rest. Then there's that additional off-day (cold-weather teams seem to build that into their early schedules), and the other 4 starters get their 6 days of rest. I don't think you can bring Ober right back up, according to league rules, so you can't play musical chairs with him at will. So maybe someone has to do a spot-start, or maybe the rotation is in good shape by now and are into their rhythm. Weather postponements and injuries are going to throw any of this planning off, by this point anyway, so just go with a plan to begin with and then expect to adjust and improvise.

Pete Maki sounds more than a little like Chris Parnell, of SNL and Archer and other entertainments. Parnell has the gift of smoothness that sounds like a parody of TV commercials without even trying, but dialed back just a bit he's soothing. I have no idea what technical chops Maki brings to the job but I bet he is good at talking pitchers down from the ledge after they've blown a save for a second game in a row. Speaking of blowing saves, I had looked at Pagan's monthly numbers recently too, and felt it best to view the good final month as merely a SSS blip in the context of a terrible month that preceded it (and not very good ones before that, nor the season before). But baseball is a game of constant tinkering and adjustment, and it's interesting to know that there is a reason that the pitcher attributes to this difference. Trouble is that the batters are allowed to tinker and adjust too, when facing him, and I imagine that Pagan is willing to talk about the curveball because he knows that the "book" on him already has been updated to include this addition. He's not a young man and I'm sure he's tried new things here and there many times. I'm skeptical but I'll never root against a Twin. Wait and see, and I'll hope he proves my skepticism to be unfounded.

As others have said, those ERA look systematically too good, especially when compared to those WARP numbers. A starting pitcher with an ERA in the low-3's? Most WAR-type numbers would be a lot higher.

A mean that varies as we go, of course. It's not like flipping coins or drawing cards from a deck. I don't quibble with the phrase really, but I wish there was another one.

It's always been known as a pitcher's league, even when it was high-A. By contrast the Texas League and the PCL are known as hitter's leagues. When looking at stats it's wise to adjust by as much as .100 for the OPS you see in hitters, and (I dunno, maybe) 1.25 for ERA. (Those are just my own back of the envelope numbers, TYVM.) I think it's the altitude - everyone accepts that offense is inflated at Coors field due to the thin air, which not only lets the ball carry a few feet farther but makes it harder for breaking pitches to have any bite. Down in Florida where the ball travels through a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and molasses, the pitcher is in his element.

Interesting point about Mahle's L/R splits. I see now that the first 3 years of his MLB career he had rather extreme splits in the traditional direction - lefties tattooed him. Then suddenly it flipped, and for 3 years running it's the righties who make him look bad, and for the past 2 seasons like maybe he doesn't even belong in the majors when facing them, he's become that much of a LOOGY in disguise. Reverse splits aren't usually sustainable, so this has been mighty weird. Obviously it hasn't escaped his attention and he wants to do something about it.

You encouraged reading the Dan Hayes piece in The Athletic, and I just want to say that the photo of Joe Pohlad sure has him rocking the Brian Dozier style pompadour hairstyle and audio headset.

A lot of it IMO comes down to how the team was marketed when it came to its new location. The Dodgers and Giants played up the long roots back in NY when they went to California, and both had been in a World Series just a few seasons earlier. The Senators by contrast hadn't won 80 games in a non-war season since 1936 - their reputation was just mud. I wasn't there in 1961 but I bet the Griffiths did their best to say at every opportunity, "no, no, these are the MINNESOTA TWINS. Brand new and shiny!" It's true that the major league franchise dates back to 1901; but the TEAM from Minnesota's perspective started in 1961, and it's the hearts and minds that I'll cater to when thinking about all-time teams, even if we forego a few all-timers like Walter Johnson. IOW it's an emotional choice and not many minds are going to get changed.

So the position players won't especially lead us to glory, but don't represent a complete black hole. Now on to the pitchers! Could still eke out a 90-win forecast.

Pitchers and catchers report now. Ashbury reports in another month. Can't wait!

In Cincy I liked the view of the river from what I recall being above the first base line.

Mad props to the FO if they could pull it off, though.

There once was an outfielder named Puckett, Um, never mind.

No such list can omit Tsuyoshi Nishioka. I'd also lobby for Lance Lynn instead of Archer.

Yes. When the scenario you laid out happens you tell your friends, "you won't believe what happened in the game last night." Nobody says that about two groundouts in the 10th. Fun, versus manufactured situations.